Monthly Archives: September 2009

English Garden Gate

Foreign cash buyers are quite active in Northwood. They have served to keep prices elevated to WTF levels in my favorite neighborhood. 🙁

30 Garden Gate Ln   Irvine, CA 92620  kitchen

Asking Price: $639,000
Address: 30 Garden Gate Ln Irvine, CA 92620
{book7}

Here we sit in tombstones in the mud,
like it’s where we want to be.
It’s impossible to feel sacred in this lie,
in this aerial fantasy.

If this streets air ain’t up to par,
I’ll take my clothes, and take this strange behaviour.
Not only liked but loved as well.

It’s only been a year,
English garden,
and you’re farther away,


English Garden
— Silverchair

English Garden

I like this neighborhood and its English Garden. It must be popular with foreign cash buyers (FCB) too. Who else would pay $435/SF to live in this neighborhood?

The owners of today’s featured property bought in 2002 for $399,000, but they only used an $82,000 mortgage… although, I am a bit suspect. My record may only have the second mortgage. Either that, or the owners put 80% or $317,000 down. Was this owner part of the first wave of FCBs to hit Northwood? He probably will not be the last.

30 Garden Gate Ln   Irvine, CA 92620  kitchen

Asking Price: $639,000

Income Requirement: $120,980
Downpayment Needed: $127,800

Purchase Price: $399,000
Purchase Date: 8/20/2002

Net Gain (Loss): $201,660
Percent Change: 60.2%
Annual Appreciation: 8.5%

Address: 30 Garden Gate Ln Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,468
$/Sq. Ft.: $435
Lot Size: 3,367 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Cottage
Stories: 1
View: Hills
Year Built: 1998
Community: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: S589057
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 6 day

WTFMODEL VERY RARELY ON THE MAEKET FOR SALE, BEAUTIFUL ONE STORY HOME, ONLY GARAGE ATTACHED WITH THE OTHER HOUSE’S GARAGE, NO INTERIOR WALL HAS ATTACHED. TWO BEDROOMS PLUS A SMALL OFFICE OR DEN, LARGE SIZE LIVING AND DINGING ROOM,NICE KITCHEN WITH OPEN TO DINING ROOM, BREAKFAST COUNTER, AND A LOTS CABINETS. MASTER BEDROOM HAS FRANCH DOOR TO THE BACK YARD, SPICEL DESIGNED TILE IN LIVING ROOM, DINING AND KITCHEN, CARPET IN BEDROOMS, WOODSHUTTERS. IT IS A VERY BEAUTIFUL HOME, NICE, CLEAN, WELL KEPT. JUST LIKE A DETACHED HOME.TWO CARAGE.

MAEKET? DINGING ROOM? FRANCH DOOR? SPICEL? A LOTS CABINETS? SPICEL? TWO CARAGE?

ALL CAP

30 Garden Gate Ln   Irvine, CA 92620  kitchen 2

Conventional wisdom says you should not paint with “custom” colors because it turns off potential buyers. This is true; however, if you are a “special” buyer who likes the colors, it can make you fall in love with the place. I really like the green in this house…

.

And so concludes another week at the Irvine Housing Blog, chronicling the Irvine home market since September of 2006.

Have a great weekend.

😉

2007 Knife Catchers

How should we feel about knife catchers? They were warned of the risks and bought anyway. Now we are paying to clean up the mess.

7 E Smokestone 3 Irvine, CA 92614 kitchen

Asking Price: $300,000
Address: 7 E Smokestone #3 Irvine, CA 92614

Something went wrong along the wayhttps://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/knife-catcher.jpg
Everybody’s waiting for judgment day
So they can go “Told you so”
They can go “Told you so”

Standing in line, the blind lead the blind
Waiting and waiting for an overdue sign
Brothers and sisters playing Chinese Whispers
If things aren’t suited then they’ll get diluted

Told You So — Depeche Mode

I started writing for the IHB in February of 2007, but there were many other blogs preaching about the impending housing price crash before that. Now that it has been over 2 1/2 years, we are starting to see the bloody knife catchers.

There were ample warnings about the problems, but like Lemmings following the herd, buyers jumped at properties because they believed prices would rise forever. Fast forward to now, and there are whispers of foreign cash buyers and
the firm believe in price drop immunity. We are creating the next wave
of knife-catchers.

https://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/images/uploads/2009feblate/lemmings.jpg

I am not sure how to feel about 2007 knife catchers. Part of me wants to gloat because I was right and they were wrong, but that doesn’t help much, and I could have been wrong. I should probably feel more sympathy and compassion for these people, but they were warned to the problem, and they ignored the warnings. What should I feel toward these people?

I am sure there is some simple spiritual answer; it eludes me at the moment.

Like any tragic characters, 2007 knife catchers offer wonderful schadenfreude, or as Wikipedia notes, “human suffering that, paradoxically, offers its audience pleasure.” My The Reservoir of Schadenfreude may be empty, but when the flow of schadenfreude comes my way, I still know how to tune to that channel….

7 E Smokestone 3 Irvine, CA 92614 kitchen

Asking Price: $300,000

Income Requirement: $75,000
Downpayment Needed: $60,000

Purchase Price: $409,000
Purchase Date: 2/7/2007

Gain (Loss) after 6% Commission: -$127,000
Percent Change: -26.7%
Annualized Return: -10%

Address: 7 E Smokestone #3 Irvine, CA 92614

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 917
$/Sq. Ft.: $327
Lot Size: –
Property Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary
Stories: 1
Floor: 2
View: Park or Green Belt
Year Built: 1980
Community: Woodbridge
County: Orange
MLS#: P702490
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 2 day

2 Bedroon and 2 Bathroom. LOCATION,LOCATION,LOCATION, This Upper single level Condo is one of the best locations in Woodbridge (Inside the Loop) Your View is of the Park across the Street, Only a few blocks from the Desirable South Lake Beach Club, Lagoon and tennis club.

LOCATION,LOCATION,LOCATION… What does this tell me? The realtor used ALL CAPS to call attention to the fact that real estate is located somewhere. Hmmm… that is helpful, isn’t it? Doesn’t all real estate have a location?

The property was purchased with 100% financing right at the peak. It isn’t surprising the owner gave up.

This property took 11 months from NOD to foreclosure auction. It looks like there was one modification granted in January of 2009, but it doesn’t look as if the owner made any payments as the a follow-up NOD was filed 4 months later. Based on the purchase date, it looks as if the owner made payments for about a year and a half before giving up. The last 18 months have been about living rent-free.

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 09/01/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)
Document #: 2009000471474

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 05/29/2009
Document Type: Notice of Default
Document #: 2009000272607

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 01/26/2009
Document Type: Notice of Rescission
Document #: 2009000033296

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 11/10/2008
Document Type: Notice of Default
Document #: 2008000525729

Who Will Fix the System?

Are the key players in Washington’s finance and mortgage lending issues up to the task of reforming our system. Do they even see the need?

10 Fuchsia   Irvine, CA 92604  kitchen

Asking Price: $479,000
Address: 10 Fuchsia Irvine, CA 92604
{book5}

Was a long and dark Decemberbarney-frank-tim-geithner-ben-bernake
From the rooftops I remember
There was snow
White snow

Clearly I remember
From the windows they were watching
While we froze
Down below

When the future’s architectured
By a carnival of idiots on show
You’d better lie low

Violet Hill — Coldplay

Who is the architect of our system for financing real estate? We know our current system enabled a massive housing bubble. Is that the system we want to keep in place?

If we reform this system, Christopher Dodd (shown below), Barney Frank, Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner are the men we must to rely on to get it done right.

Great?

The Three Stooges

I suppose, it could be worse…

I have outlined both A Free-Market Solution to Prevent Housing Bubbles and Regulatory Solutions to Prevent the Next Housing Bubble. I am not holding my breath…. Neither is Paul Krugman:

In the grim period that followed Lehman’s failure, it seemed inconceivable that bankers would, just a few months later, be going right back to the practices that brought the world’s financial system to the edge of collapse. At the very least, one might have thought, they would show some restraint for fear of creating a public backlash.

I was startled last week when Mr. Obama, in an interview with Bloomberg News, questioned the case for limiting financial-sector pay: “Why is it,” he asked, “that we’re going to cap executive compensation for Wall Street bankers but not Silicon Valley entrepreneurs or N.F.L. football players?”

That’s an astonishing remark — and not just because the National Football League does, in fact, have pay caps. Tech firms don’t crash the whole world’s operating system when they go bankrupt; quarterbacks who make too many risky passes don’t have to be rescued with hundred-billion-dollar bailouts. Banking is a special case — and the president is surely smart enough to know that.

All I can think is that this was another example of something we’ve seen before: Mr. Obama’s visceral reluctance to engage in anything that resembles populist rhetoric. And that’s something he needs to get over.

Without leadership from the administration and a desire in Congress, reform has little or no chance.

Christopher Dodd is Democratic politician currently serving as the senior U.S. Senator from Connecticut, according to Wikipedia. Most importantly for this issue, he is Chairman of the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. According to Michael Moore, Christopher Dodd is in Countrywide’s pocket. His involvement with the housing bubble is less well known than the other players. I do remember his idiotic populism appealing to homedebtors during the presidential campaign. He doesn’t seem to get it.

Now, Christopher Dodd wants to put the Federal Reserve in charge of out entire financial system. That doesn’t sound like a good idea to me, nor does is sound like a good idea to Calculated Risk. Imagine how bad Alan Greenspan could have screwed up our financial system if he would have been in charge of the whole thing.

Barney Frank is the United States House Representative for Massachusetts’s 4th congressional district since 1981 and a member of the Democratic Party, according to Wikipedia. He is also noted for his complete cluelessness concerning the housing bubble (great video BTW). He does not use a computer. Perhaps he is a good legislator, perhaps not. As chairman and of the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee, he is one of the most powerful men in Washington when it comes to mortgage finance.

Both Christopher Dodd and Barney Frank are the ranking Democrats, and their party has a secure majority in both houses. If these two men can get the members of their own party to agree on legislation, it will get passed, and the President will sign it (This is true of anything the Democrats want to do between now and 2010).

According to Wikipedia, Ben S. Bernanke is the current Chairman of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve. Bernanke succeeded Alan Greenspan — the chief architect of the housing bubble — on February 1, 2006. He is just as clueless as his predecessor and Barney Frank. Perhaps he is a good central banker, perhaps not. He is arguably the most powerful man in Washington, and he certainly is the most powerful banker in the United States.

Timothy Geithner is the 75th and current United States Secretary of the Treasury, serving under President Barack Obama. He was previously the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, according to Wikipedia. He is a classic crony who worked his way through the banking system. Is it likely that he will work to impose draconian regulations on the banking industry? I doubt it.

It is easy to criticise our government’s stooges from afar. They may really understand the problem and know the best solutions and recognize that it isn’t politically feasible to get the reforms past. That is giving them the benefit of the doubt. I think they lack the understanding and the desire to fix the problem.

Nothing will be changed.

When 100% financing comes back next time around, will you take the free money the banks are giving out?

10 Fuchsia   Irvine, CA 92604  kitchen

Asking Price: $479,000

Income Requirement: $90,688
Downpayment Needed: $95,800

Purchase Price: $335,000
Purchase Date: 3/19/2002

Net Gain (Loss): $115,260
Percent Change: 43.0%
Annual Appreciation: 5.7%

Address: 10 Fuchsia Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,495
$/Sq. Ft.: $320
Lot Size: 1,495 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Condominium
Style: Townhouse
Stories: 2
Floor: 1
View: Greenbelt
Year Built: 1974
Community: El Camino Real
County: Orange
MLS#: S589143
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 5 day

This is a beautiful home with 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths, formal living room with fire place, dining room, kitchen with granite counters, extra room off kitchen that is great for eating area or many have used this area as a family room with sofas and TV area, upstairs family room and office area, this home has a nice patio that leads to a 2 car garage. Close to great schools and shopping!

10 Fuchsia   Irvine, CA 92604  giraffe

The HELOC abusers at this property did well during the bubble. They paid $335,000 back in March of 2002. They used a $268,000 first mortgage, a $50,250 second mortgage, and a $16,750 downpayment.

These owners periodically added to their HELOC, and finally in November of 2004, they refinanced their first mortgage for $448,000 and opened a HELOC for $100,000.

Total property debt is $558,000 assuming they maxed out their HELOC. Their pattern suggests they did.

Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $239,750.

Is this the kind of life we want to enable as a culture? Are these owners entitled to an extra $80,000 in mortgage equity withdrawal each year for spending money?

I suppose it is a good gig — if you can get it….

The Way It Is

A strong housing market requires a healthy economy. California’s economy is a disaster. Let’s take a closer look today at the way it is.

Asking Price: $675,000
Address: 28 Bombay Irvine, CA 92620

Standing in line marking time–
Waiting for the welfare dime
cause they cant buy a job
The man in the silk suit hurries by
As he catches the poor old ladies eyes
Just for fun he says get a job

Thats just the way it is
Some things will never change
Thats just the way it is
But dont you believe them

The Way It Is — Bruce Hornsby

California is proud state with a long history. Now it is a mess. We have been living for the day for too long. Will we make another 100 years?

I was recently emailed a report (090906_labor_day.pdf) about the California economy. Here are the highlights:

The Recession Has Battered California’s Job Market

  • Two years of job losses erased four years of job gains.
  • California has approximately the same number of jobs as it did nine years ago.
  • A smaller share of Californians is working today than at any point since the late 1970s.
  • Recent job losses have been deeper than those of prior recessions.
  • Nearly all major sectors of California’s economy have lost jobs during the downturn.

California’s Unemployment and Underemployment Rates Reached All-Time Highs

  • California’s unemployment rate hit a record high of 11.9 percent in July 2009.
  • More than one out of four unemployed Californians (28.2 percent) had been jobless for more than six months in July 2009 – the highest level ever recorded.
  • Nationally, there were nearly six job seekers for every job available in June 2009.
  • The monthly number of jobless Californians filing initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits increased by approximately 152,000 (81.9 percent) between June 2007 and June 2009.
  • Many Californians are likely to run out of UI benefits before they can fi nd work.
  • The number of underemployed Californians more than doubled in two years.
  • Nearly one out of five working-age adults (18.5 percent) was “underutilized” in July 2009.
  • Unemployment rates for California’s men and Latinos have risen steeply.

The Recession Has Diminished Workers’ Earnings

  • Workers’ hourly wages lost purchasing power across the earnings distribution as the recession deepened.
  • Reduced hours of work diminished many workers’ weekly earnings.
  • The gap between low-wage and high-wage California workers widened during the past generation.

Recent Income Gains Were Not Broadly Shared

  • The bulk of recent income gains went to the wealthiest Californians.
  • Recent uneven income gains continue a longer-term trend.
  • The top 1 percent of taxpayers has nearly doubled its share of AGI since the early 1990s.
  • The share of income going to the top 1 percent of US taxpayers is at a 79-year high.

I am sure the rich fat-cats on Wall Street are suffering too…

Don’t worry, I am sure our inflated house prices will continue to rise.

Perhaps not…

Salinas, California, 1939.

Asking Price: $675,000

Income Requirement: $127,796
Downpayment Needed: $135,000

Purchase Price: $975,000
Purchase Date: 9/27/2006

Net Gain (Loss): -$340,500
Percent Change: -30.8%
Annual Appreciation: -10.3%

Address: 28 Bombay Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 4
Baths: 3.75
Sq. Ft.: 2,630
$/Sq. Ft.: $257
Lot Size: –
Property Type: Detached, Condominium
Stories: 2
Community: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: T09088634
Source: MRMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 35 day

Beautifully upgraded home in Irvine gated community. Granite counter tops, ceramic tile floors, down stairs master. Large back yard as well as front yard. Upstairs additional bedrooms along with very private suite and loft. Perfect for guests! End of Cul de sac!! NO SHOWING TILL AFTER Thursday 8 20

I wonder if the owner had to sell their SUV and buy the Mini…

This house was purchased at the peak with 100% financing. The owners gave up paying ages ago, but they took the free ride.

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 02/23/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)
Document #: 2009000080972

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 06/04/2008
Document Type: Notice of Default
Document #: 2008000268212

What will be left of California after the recession is over?

The ATM Value

Now that HELOC abuse and housing ATM addiction are part of our culture, how does it change the value of real estate?

Asking Price: $430,650
Address: 10 Pebblepath Irvine, CA 92614
{book4}

Seal the door (of which only one lock works)
What is expected of me now…who knows
With tacks stuck in toes
Debating on what’s likable
But certainly this isn’t home
Certainly not

Awful Fall — Stolen Babies

This isn’t home. Certainly not. It is a hidden ATM machine. Someone took one of the least desirable properties in Irvine and managed to milk it for $384,640 in cash withdrawals through HELOC abuse. As we have all seen here at the IHB, this homeowner was not alone. Now that houses are viewed as great investments that enable owners to borrow and spend, people may be willing to pay more to get one.

Real estate in California is magic. Ordinary tract homes can attain Manhattan Island values. Houses are not merely shelter, they are investments with unlimited wealth potential that can double your income — at least in the kool aid intoxicated world of most would-be owners.

Does kool aid intoxication add value? It does cause people to overbid because they believe they will be compensated for the additional “investment” through mortgage equity withdrawal. Can the collective action of the foolish herd sustain inflated prices forever?

We will see. I doubt it.

Asking Price: $430,650

Income Requirement: $81,534
Downpayment Needed: $86,130

Purchase Price: $169,500
Purchase Date: 5/13/1997

Net Gain (Loss): $235,311
Percent Change: 154.1%
Annual Appreciation: 12.5%

Address: 10 Pebblepath Irvine, CA 92614

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,216
$/Sq. Ft.: $354
Lot Size: 3,240 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Traditional
Stories: 1
Year Built: 1980
Community: Woodbridge
County: Orange
MLS#: S589372
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 3 day

Possibilities abound in this single-level Woodbridge home! Vaulted ceilings in living room and master bedroom, fireplace in living room and a family room or large dining area/breakfast-nook off kitchen.

Possibilities abound…

This is one of the worst locations in Irvine…

10 Pebblepath   Irvine, CA 92614

Think about the noise and pollution at this location. When you are right at the intersection, the noise is not a consistent drone, but rather an endless series of stopping and starting movements. People will squeal tires, lock up brakes, grind through gears and show off their new exhaust pipes. Have you ever noticed that first puff of smoke that comes from a car or bus when they first step on the gas? That is the air you would breathe here.

This owner was an epic HELOC abuser, not for the amount, but for the frequency of the withdrawals and percentage of original value — this homeowner refinanced twelve times and borrowed more than three times what he paid for the house.

  • This property was purchased on 5/13/1997 for $169,500. The owner used a $135,360 first mortgage and a $34,140. At least he did have some of his own money in there for a while.
  • On 5/21/1998 he opened a HELOC for $18,800.
  • On 9/1/1998 he took out a stand-alone second for $52,500.
  • On 12/31/1998 he refinanced the first mortgage for $198,500. As you can see, he learned HELOC abuse early.
  • On 2/8/1999 he opened a HELOC for $12,400.
  • On 9/27/1999 he opened a HELOC for $40,000.
  • On 10/21/2002 he refinanced the first mortgage for $254,000.
  • On 5/16/2003 he refinanced the first mortgage for $292,500.
  • On 11/13/2003 he refinanced the first mortgage for $318,000.
  • On 10/1/2004 he refinanced the first mortgage for $353,000.
  • On 2/22/2005 he opened a HELOC for $45,500.
  • On 8/30/2006 he refinanced the first mortgage for $472,500.
  • On 4/18/2007 he refinanced the first mortgage for $520,000.
  • Total property debt is $520,000
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $384,640.

This owner was not finished playing the game when the ATM closed down. He arranged for a loan modification to extend his time and then defaulted again.

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 03/06/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)
Document #: 2009000105992

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 12/04/2008
Document Type: Notice of Default
Document #: 2008000559854

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 06/06/2008
Document Type: Notice of Rescission
Document #: 2008000271889

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 04/22/2008
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)
Document #: 2008000187359

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 01/17/2008
Document Type: Notice of Default
Document #: 2008000025457

This owner was hopelessly addicted to the home ATM. Obviously, he did not intend to pay back this money. His plan was to transfer this debt to someone else when he sold the home — if he sold the home. Most people believed the housing ATM was going to keep giving twice-yearly cash infusions to support the lifestyle to which they have become entitled.

Do you think the lenders will enable this again?

I am quite certain that many, many people in California expect lenders to go back to their foolish ways soon. Houses are much more than a place to live, it is a great cashflow investment that can support significant supplemental spending. The only drawback is that you must lose the home, your income and your credit score when the Ponzi Scheme blows up. Many will gladly pay that price if given another opportunity.

The lenders will reap what they sow.