Monthly Archives: June 2008

My House Is Worth More

Luxurious — Gwen Stefani

Some people still have not figured out there is an epic price crash taking place. When you look at the asking prices in Irvine, people are still of the opinion their houses are worth at or above peak prices. The fact is that prices have dropped more than 20% and they continue their downward descent. Even when confronted with neighboring properties selling for less, people lapse into denial and believe “my house is worth more.” I guess $15,000 in pergraniteel can add $150,000 in luxury value to a property. Who knew?

206 Tuberose Inside

Asking Price: $800,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $200,000

Downpayment Needed: $160,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $6,666

Purchase Price: $556,000

Purchase Date: 7/24/2003

Address: 206 Tuberose, Irvine, CA 92603

Kool Aid Man

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,500
$/Sq. Ft.: $533
Lot Size: 999

Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 2003
Stories: 2 Levels
Area: Quail Hill
County: Orange
MLS#: P639605
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 5 days

Gourmet Kitchen Award Fabulous home at corner lot. Catheral elegant living room, formal
dining room with beautiful columns. Cozy family room with gold package
surround sound. Gourmet kitchen with walk-in pantry. Maple cabinets
with stainless steels. Double Oven, Top of The Line Granite Countertops
with Full Back Flash. Beautiful Custom Designed Draperies, Wood Blinds,
& Shutters. Two Tone Paint with Designer Touch Travertine on 1st
Floor & all Baths. French doors to private courtyard. Master suite
with walk-in closet. All Baths are Beautifully Upgraded W/Granite
Countertops, Maple Cabinets, Hardware Fixtures and Designed Travertine
Floor

What is that picture supposed to show me? The flash of the photographer? The adjacent house through the window? Are they that proud of the cabinets and window treatments? Perhaps its the plants?

Catheral elegant living room? Do you go there for a catheter? Maybe it will cure your Tuberose?

gold package
surround sound? Now I see where the value comes from. They have gold buried in the speaker system.

Full Back Flash?

Title Case, or Random capital Letters?

Notice the pergraniteel is mentioned several times.

Does that description scream “pretentious bull$hit?”

Here is the bullet-point recap:

WTF

  • The property was purchased in 2003, and the owner put 20% down.
  • On 10/20/2004 they refinanced with a 1% Option ARM for $650,000 taking out their downpayment money plus an additional $96,000.
  • On 4/29/2005 they refinanced with another 1% Option ARM for $650,000 and took out a stand-alone second for $90,000.
  • On 6/30/2006 they refinanced for $750,000 and opened a HELOC for $137,000.
  • On 10/31/2006 they refinanced again for $749,000 and opened a HELOC for $142,200.
  • On 2/26/2007 they refinanced one last time for $750,000 and opened a HELOC for $100,000.

It isn’t clear whether or not this last HELOC has been tapped. It is clear that with the $750,000 first mortgage that these people have taken out their initial equity plus an additional $196,000. If they have tapped the HELOC, then their total mortgage equity withdrawal is closer to $296,000. If this property sells for its WTF asking price, the first mortgage will be paid off which is why this asking price is what it is.

I had to laugh at the listing price history. This property was listed for $750,000 and then raised to $800,000 a few days later. I guess they didn’t want to give it away with all this frantic spring buying activity. This price is ridiculous at $533/SF in a neighborhood plummeting under the $400/SF mark. So what would this place successfully sell for in today’s market? The neighbor at 210 Tuberose recently sold for $715,000. Another neighbor at 224 Tuberose just went into escrow for $649,900. This is a major comp killer. It is an identical floorplan about 100′ away. For today’s seller to get their asking price, they must find a buyer stupid enough to pay $150,000 over recent comps, and do it with a large amount of cash. Lenders will only loan 80% of the recent $649,900 comp price, so the remainder will need to be cash. I hope their place is very luxurious.

.

Gwen StefaniWorking so hard every night and day
And now we get the pay back
Trying so hard saving up the paper
Now we get to lay back

Champagne kisses hold me in your lap of luxury
I only want to fly first class desires, you’re my limousine
So elegant the way we ride, our passion it just multiplies
There’s platinum lightning in the sky
Look I’m livin’ like a queen

This kind of love is getting expensive
We know how to live baby
We’re luxurious like Egyptian cotton
We’re so rich in love we’re rollin’ in cashmere
Got it in fifth gear baby
Diamond in the rough is looking so sparkly

Working so hard every night and day
And now we get the pay back
Trying so hard saving up the paper
Now we get to lay back

Sugar, honey, sexy baby
When we touch it turns to gold
Sensitive and delicate kinda like a tuberose
You know you are my treasure chest
It’s pure perfection when we kiss and
You’re my Mr.. I’m your Miss
Gonna be until we’re old

This kind of love is getting expensive
We know how to live baby
We’re luxurious like Egyptian cotton

Working so hard every night and day
And now we get the pay back
Trying so hard saving up the paper
Now we get to lay back

Luxurious — Gwen Stefani

There Goes the Neighborhood

Walnut Tree — Keane

Do you remember our recent discussion on Financing in a Declining Market? This REO is going to obliterate the neighborhood comps. Any property the lender considers comparable to this one will not get good financing (it doesn’t matter what we might think is comparable, it only matters what the lender thinks.) Remember our optimistic seller one block over on Sweetan Street? Any lender is almost certainly going to consider today’s featured property to be a comparable, and with a $400,000 lower asking price, anyone looking to buy the property on Sweetan Street is going to have to come up with almost $500,000 cash to close the deal (Those sellers are pwned.) This is the first real jaw-dropping price buster we have seen here in Irvine. It is happening everywhere else, and now it is happening here as well.

5228 Walnut Kitchen

Asking Price: $351,500IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $87,875

Downpayment Needed: $70,300

Monthly Equity Burn: $2,929

Purchase Price: $475,000

Purchase Date: 7/30/2004

Address: 5228 Walnut Ave #10, Irvine, CA 92604

REO

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,460
$/Sq. Ft.: $241
Lot Size: 1,700

Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary, Townhouse
Year Built: 1980
Stories: 2 Levels
Area: El Camino Real
County: Orange
MLS#: S534553
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 3 days

Wow!**Bank Owned REO this Is The One You’ve Been Waiting For**great
Floorplan**terrific Price**3 Bedrooms + Office/Loft Deck With View Of
Newport Hills**light, Open Floorplan**cozy Fireplace** Large Sliding
Glass Door Leads To Huge Rear Yard**plenty Of Room For A Family,
Entertaining, Gardening**priced To Sell Now!! No Mello Roos!

5228 Walnut GardenWow!** The realtor had fun with punctuation. and Random capital Letters.

Bank Owned REO? Bank owned real estate owned?

Plenty of room for Gardening? Looks like they need to weed the bricks they are growing.

Did you notice that this is also the first 3/2 listed for sale under the median income in Irvine?

So what is this property worth? It is selling near breakeven for an owner-occupant. An astute observer from yesterday, C. Cammack, rents nearby for $2,065. There are also nearby properties going for $1950. Let’s say this place rents for $2,000. With a 160 GRM, the value is $320,000. Some knife catcher will probably bid near $400,000 for this place today, but the asking price is getting very close to the owner-occupant breakeven. Of course, many would not want to own and occupy this dwelling, but prices in Irvine are nearing the range where they are affordable again.

Those of you who have been wondering why I have been showing so many low-end properties lately can find your answers in the graph below I borrowed from Calculated Risk:

The low end of the market is where the action is with properties like todays. It is leading the race to the bottom. The lender who foreclosed actually had $520,200 in debt on the property due to a refinance in late 2005. The people who lost the property in foreclosure walked away with their downpayment plus an additional $45,000. If this property sells for its asking price, the lender is going to lose $189,790. If there are 4,365 distressed properties in OC under $500K, and if the lenders are losing an average of $100,000 per unit, there is $4,365,000,000 in losses just at the low end in Orange County, California. Do you think the lenders have already written this off? I doubt it…

.

Once there was a great storm,
Pushed my head beneath the waves,
I was gone.
Underneath the walnut tree,
Where you said you’d wait for me,
And I waited a long, long time
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time.
Why, why do I come here?
Seeking out the memories I hold dear,
‘Cause you put your spell on me,
Made me live in memory,
And im frozen in just the wrong time.
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time.

Walnut Tree — Keane

The Place You Rent is For Sale

Life for Rent — Dido

Attention occupant of today’s featured property: it is for sale. From the MLS description, “Driveby Only Please! Do Not Disturb Occupant. No Sign, Tenant not aware Property is For Sale.” Well, they are now. If any of you know this renter, please go tell them what is going on — the power of the internet.

Today is a great case study in what a property is really worth. We have both an asking price and a statement of what the unit currently rents for. That should eliminate most of the conjecture concerning rent. I am going to show the calculations for cost of ownership and calculate the breakeven amount for an owner occupant.

437 Deerfield Kitchen

Asking Price: $515,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $128,750

Downpayment Needed: $103,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $4,291

Purchase Price: $495,000

Purchase Date: 4/16/2004

Address: 437 Deerfield #130, Irvine, CA 92606

Rental

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,367
$/Sq. Ft.: $377
Lot Size:
Property Type: Condominium
Style: Cape Cod
Year Built: 1985
Stories: 2 Levels
Area: Walnut
County: Orange
MLS#: U8002422
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 5 days

Driveby Only Please! Do Not Disturb Occupant. No Sign, Tenant not aware
Property is For Sale. Sale Subject to existing Lease $2,150./Month
(Expires Nov. 2008). Ideal End Unit Location with Direct Garage Access
(1 Car) plus 1 space across driveway. Charming Windwood Townhome. 2
Story, 2 Master Suites, Remodeled Tiled 2 Baths and 1/2 Guest
downstairs with 3rd bedroom Den/Office down. Inside laundry. Open
Kitchen, Eat at Bar and large Diningroom. Vaulted Ceilings, Slate
Fireplace with slider opens to large L-shaped Patio. Lovely
neighborhood with parks, Trails, Tennis&Sports Courts, Community
Pool/SPA. Walking distance to shopping center, bus station, school and
easy access to freeways. Washer, dryer and refrigeratior included. Call
Audrey with Questions 714-612-9557. Interior Inspection ONLY with
Accepted/Qualified Offer.

refrigeratior?

For those of you who read from out-of-state, you can see that a crappy 3/2 in Irvine still rents for more than $2,000. This property is borderline on whether or not an owner-occupant would want to live here long term.

The following are calculations for the cost of ownership. If you want a refresher course on these costs, see the post Rent Versus Own:

$ 359,590 Purchase Price
$ 71,918 Downpayment @20%
$ 287,672 Mortgage @ 80%
$1,818.28 Mortgage Payment @ 6.5%
$ 299.66 Property Taxes @ 1%
$ 74.91 Homeowners Insurance @ 0.25%
$ 74.91 Special Taxes and Levies @ 0.25%
$ 176.00 Homeowners Associate Dues or Fees @ $176
$ 149.83 Maintenance and Replacement Reserves @0.5%
$2,593.60 Monthly Cash Cost
$1,558.22 Interest on First Payment
$ (408.28) Tax Savings @ 25% of mortgage interest and property taxes
$ (260.06) Equity hidden in payment
$ 224.74 Lost Downpayment Income @ 5% of Downpayment
$ 2,150 Total Cost of Ownership

As you can see from the calculation above, this property is only worth $359,590 to an owner-occupant to break even on the cost of ownership. I included for reference the cost of private mortgage insurance (PMI) if you put less than 20% down. Of course, this would reduce the breakeven price even further.

$ 325,440 Purchase Price
$ 9,763 Downpayment @3%
$ 315,677 Mortgage @ 97%
$1,995.30 Mortgage Payment @ 6.5%
$ 271.20 Property Taxes @ 1%
$ 67.80 Homeowners Insurance @ 0.25%
$ 67.80 Special Taxes and Levies @ 0.25%
$ 135.60 Private Mortgage Insurance @ 0.5%
$ 176.00 Homeowners Associate Dues or Fees @ $176
$ 135.60 Maintenance and Replacement Reserves @0.5%
$2,849.30 Monthly Cash Cost
$1,709.92 Interest on First Payment
$ (444.43) Tax Savings @ 25% of mortgage interest and property taxes
$ (285.38) Equity hidden in payment
$ 30.51 Lost Downpayment Income @ 5% of Downpayment
$ 2,150 Total Cost of Ownership

People using FHA financing to put only 3% down have a higher cost of capital, and they have to pay PMI, so their breakeven is lower than someone putting 20% down.

The above analysis is exactly what I will look at when I consider buying a home. As you can see, prices are still too high for me. This property has to fall 30% from its 2004 purchase price before I would show any interest in it at all (not that I want to live in today’s property.) This owner used 100% financing, so she has been running a negative cashflow on this property for 4 years now. I doubt she cares what it sells for because even at her fantasy asking price of $515,000, she will still not get enough out of the property to pay off the loans. Some knife catcher may pay between $450,000 and $475,000 today because they will not do the analysis above, or they will not do it properly. I am constantly amazed at the level of ignorance among buyers. In the past, you could buy at almost any price, and the market would always bail you out. Unfortunately, sometimes prices do not come back for a very long time. The Great Housing Bubble is one of those times.

.

I haven’t really ever found a place that I call home
I never stick around quite long enough to make it
I apologize that once again I’m not in love
But it’s not as if I mind
that your heart ain’t exactly breaking

It’s just a thought, only a thought

But if my life is for rent and I don’t lean to buy
Well I deserve nothing more than I get
Cos nothing I have is truly mine

I’ve always thought
that I would love to live by the sea
To travel the world alone
and live my life more simply
I have no idea what’s happened to that dream
Cos there’s really nothing left here to stop me

It’s just a thought, only a thought

But if my life is for rent and I don’t learn to buy
Well I deserve nothing more than I get
Cos nothing I have is truly mine

While my heart is a shield and I won’t let it down
While I am so afraid to fail so I won’t even try
Well how can I say I’m alive

If my life is for rent…

Life for Rent — Dido