Monthly Archives: December 2007

White Christmas

I’m dreaming of a white Christmas
Just like the ones I used to know
Where the treetops glisten,
and children listen
To hear sleigh bells in the snow

I’m dreaming of a white Christmas
With every Christmas card I write
May your days be merry and bright
And may all your Christmases be white

I’m dreaming of a white Christmas
With every Christmas card I write
May your days be merry and bright
And may all your Christmases be white

White Christmas — Bing Crosby

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The Selfish Giant

Top of Form

From The Happy Prince and Other Tales (1888)

Every afternoon, as they were coming from school, the children used to go and play in the Giant’s garden.

It was a large lovely garden, with soft green grass. Here and there over the grass stood beautiful flowers like stars, and there were twelve peach-trees that in the spring-time broke out into delicate blossoms of pink and pearl, and in the autumn bore rich fruit. The birds sat on the trees and sang so sweetly that the children used to stop their games in order to listen to them. “How happy we are here!” they cried to each other.

One day the Giant came back. He had been to visit his friend the Cornish ogre, and had stayed with him for seven years. After the seven years were over he had said all that he had to say, for his conversation was limited, and he determined to return to his own castle. When he arrived he saw the children playing in the garden.

“What are you doing here?” he cried in a very gruff voice, and the children ran away.

“My own garden is my own garden,” said the Giant; “any one can understand that, and I will allow nobody to play in it but myself.” So he built a high wall all round it, and put up a notice-board.

TRESPASSERS
WILL BE
PROSECUTED

He was a very selfish Giant.

The poor children had now nowhere to play. They tried to play on the road, but the road was very dusty and full of hard stones, and they did not like it. They used to wander round the high wall when their lessons were over, and talk about the beautiful garden inside. “How happy we were there,” they said to each other.

Then the Spring came, and all over the country there were little blossoms and little birds. Only in the garden of the Selfish Giant it was still winter. The birds did not care to sing in it as there were no children, and the trees forgot to blossom. Once a beautiful flower put its head out from the grass, but when it saw the notice-board it was so sorry for the children that it slipped back into the ground again, and went off to sleep. The only people who were pleased were the Snow and the Frost. “Spring has forgotten this garden,” they cried, “so we will live here all the year round.” The Snow covered up the grass with her great white cloak, and the Frost painted all the trees silver. Then they invited the North Wind to stay with them, and he came. He was wrapped in furs, and he roared all day about the garden, and blew the chimney-pots down. “This is a delightful spot,” he said, “we must ask the Hail on a visit.” So the Hail came. Every day for three hours he rattled on the roof of the castle till he broke most of the slates, and then he ran round and round the garden as fast as he could go. He was dressed in grey, and his breath was like ice.

“I cannot understand why the Spring is so late in coming,” said the Selfish Giant, as he sat at the window and looked out at his cold white garden; “I hope there will be a change in the weather.”

But the Spring never came, nor the Summer. The Autumn gave golden fruit to every garden, but to the Giant’s garden she gave none. “He is too selfish,” she said. So it was always Winter there, and the North Wind, and the Hail, and the Frost, and the Snow danced about through the trees.

One morning the Giant was lying awake in bed when he heard some lovely music. It sounded so sweet to his ears that he thought it must be the King’s musicians passing by. It was really only a little linnet singing outside his window, but it was so long since he had heard a bird sing in his garden that it seemed to him to be the most beautiful music in the world. Then the Hail stopped dancing over his head, and the North Wind ceased roaring, and a delicious perfume came to him through the open casement. “I believe the Spring has come at last,” said the Giant; and he jumped out of bed and looked out.

What did he see?

He saw a most wonderful sight. Through a little hole in the wall the children had crept in, and they were sitting in the branches of the trees. In every tree that he could see there was a little child. And the trees were so glad to have the children back again that they had covered themselves with blossoms, and were waving their arms gently above the children’s heads. The birds were flying about and twittering with delight, and the flowers were looking up through the green grass and laughing. It was a lovely scene, only in one corner it was still winter. It was the farthest corner of the garden, and in it was standing a little boy. He was so small that he could not reach up to the branches of the tree, and he was wandering all round it, crying bitterly. The poor tree was still quite covered with frost and snow, and the North Wind was blowing and roaring above it. “Climb up! little boy,” said the Tree, and it bent its branches down as low as it could; but the boy was too tiny.

And the Giant’s heart melted as he looked out. “How selfish I have been!” he said; “now I know why the Spring would not come here. I will put that poor little boy on the top of the tree, and then I will knock down the wall, and my garden shall be the children’s playground for ever and ever.” He was really very sorry for what he had done.

So he crept downstairs and opened the front door quite softly, and went out into the garden. But when the children saw him they were so frightened that they all ran away, and the garden became winter again. Only the little boy did not run, for his eyes were so full of tears that he did not see the Giant coming. And the Giant stole up behind him and took him gently in his hand, and put him up into the tree. And the tree broke at once into blossom, and the birds came and sang on it, and the little boy stretched out his two arms and flung them round the Giant’s neck, and kissed him. And the other children, when they saw that the Giant was not wicked any longer, came running back, and with them came the Spring. “It is your garden now, little children,” said the Giant, and he took a great axe and knocked down the wall. And when the people were going to market at twelve o’clock they found the Giant playing with the children in the most beautiful garden they had ever seen.

All day long they played, and in the evening they came to the Giant to bid him good-bye.

“But where is your little companion?” he said: “the boy I put into the tree.” The Giant loved him the best because he had kissed him.

“We don’t know,” answered the children; “he has gone away.”

“You must tell him to be sure and come here to-morrow,” said the Giant. But the children said that they did not know where he lived, and had never seen him before; and the Giant felt very sad.

Every afternoon, when school was over, the children came and played with the Giant. But the little boy whom the Giant loved was never seen again. The Giant was very kind to all the children, yet he longed for his first little friend, and often spoke of him. “How I would like to see him!” he used to say.

Years went over, and the Giant grew very old and feeble. He could not play about any more, so he sat in a huge armchair, and watched the children at their games, and admired his garden. “I have many beautiful flowers,” he said; “but the children are the most beautiful flowers of all.”

One winter morning he looked out of his window as he was dressing. He did not hate the Winter now, for he knew that it was merely the Spring asleep, and that the flowers were resting.

Suddenly he rubbed his eyes in wonder, and looked and looked. It certainly was a marvellous sight. In the farthest corner of the garden was a tree quite covered with lovely white blossoms. Its branches were all golden, and silver fruit hung down from them, and underneath it stood the little boy he had loved.

Downstairs ran the Giant in great joy, and out into the garden. He hastened across the grass, and came near to the child. And when he came quite close his face grew red with anger, and he said, “Who hath dared to wound thee?” For on the palms of the child’s hands were the prints of two nails, and the prints of two nails were on the little feet.

“Who hath dared to wound thee?” cried the Giant; “tell me, that I may take my big sword and slay him.”

“Nay!” answered the child; “but these are the wounds of Love.”

“Who art thou?” said the Giant, and a strange awe fell on him, and he knelt before the little child.

And the child smiled on the Giant, and said to him, “You let me play once in your garden, to-day you shall come with me to my garden, which is Paradise.”

And when the children ran in that afternoon, they found the Giant lying dead under the tree, all covered with white blossoms.

The Christmas Song

Chestnuts roasting on an open fire
Jack Frost nipping at your nose
Yuletide carols being sung by a choir
And folks dressed up like eskimos

Everybody knows some tofu and some mistletoe
Help to make the season bright
Tiny tots with their eyes all aglow
Will find it hard to sleep tonight

They know that Santa’s on his way
He’s loaded lots of toys
And goodies on his sleigh
And every mother’s child is gonna spy
To see if reindeer really know how to fly

And so, I’m offering this simple phrase
To kids from one to ninety-two
Although its been said
Many times, many ways
Merry Christmas! Merry Christmas! Merry Christmas to.. You!

The Christmas Song — Josh Groban

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‘Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house

Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse;

The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,

In hopes that St. Nicholas soon would be there;

The children were nestled all snug in their beds,

While visions of sugar-plums danced in their heads;

And mamma in her ‘kerchief, and I in my cap,

Had just settled down for a long winter’s nap,

When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.

Away to the window I flew like a flash,

Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow

Gave the lustre of mid-day to objects below,

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,

But a miniature sleigh, and eight tiny reindeer,

With a little old driver, so lively and quick,

I knew in a moment it must be St. Nick.

More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,

And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name;

“Now, Dasher! now, Dancer! now, Prancer and Vixen!

On, Comet! on Cupid! on, Donder and Blitzen!

To the top of the porch! to the top of the wall!

Now dash away! dash away! dash away all!”

As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,

When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky,

So up to the house-top the coursers they flew,

With the sleigh full of toys, and St. Nicholas too.

And then, in a twinkling, I heard on the roof

The prancing and pawing of each little hoof.

As I drew in my hand, and was turning around,

Down the chimney St. Nicholas came with a bound.

He was dressed all in fur, from his head to his foot,

And his clothes were all tarnished with ashes and soot;

A bundle of toys he had flung on his back,

And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack.

His eyes — how they twinkled! his dimples how merry!

His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!

His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,

And the beard of his chin was as white as the snow;

The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,

And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath;

He had a broad face and a little round belly,

That shook, when he laughed like a bowlful of jelly.

He was chubby and plump, a right jolly old elf,

And I laughed when I saw him, in spite of myself;

A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,

Soon gave me to know I had nothing to dread;

He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,

And filled all the stockings; then turned with a jerk,

And laying his finger aside of his nose,

And giving a nod, up the chimney he rose;

He sprang to his sleigh, to his team gave a whistle,

And away they all flew like the down of a thistle.
But I heard him exclaim, ere he drove out of sight,

“Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good-night.”

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The Christmas Song sung by Nat King Cole

Christmas In Killarney

The holly green, the ivy green
The prettiest picture you’ve ever seen
Is Christmas in Killarney
With all of the folks at home

It’s nice, you know, to kiss your beau
While cuddling under the mistletoe
And Santa Claus you know, of course
Is one of the boys from home

The door is always open
The neighbors pay a call
And Father John before he’s gone
Will bless the house and all

How grand it feels to click your heels
And join in the fun of the jigs and reels
I’m handing you no blarney
The likes you’ve never known
Is Christmas in Killarney
With all of the folks at home

Christmas In Killarney — Bing Crosby

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Looking for something interesting to read over the holiday weekend? Try this:

Historic Turning Points in Real Estate

As you might imagine, I am a fan of Robert Shiller. The PDF link above is to his latest paper.

Excerpts:

Exerpts The real estate market changed its direction markedly around 1990, from a booming market to a market in the doldrums for the better part of a decade, and then the market started accelerating upwards at increasing rates. The national home price boom since the late 1990s appears unprecedented in US history, although the “baby boom” in housing of the late 1940s and early 1950s comes close, and there have been some very large local booms. The rate of US housing appreciation slowed after 2005, and, to some eyes at least, it would appear just sometime after mid 2006, we are entering a new regime of downward price changes.

It would seem that demand for housing services should be relatively inelastic in the short run, especially with regard to the number of units (rather than their size). Most families want just one house. The decision to own two or more houses, or the decision to break up the family to spread out over more houses, is not made very often—most commonly only at important life turning points or job changes. It is difficult for builders to transform two small housing units into one larger unit, or one large unit into two small housing units, without great costs. Hence, even small changes in the number of housing units might be expected to cause major short-run changes in home prices. However, home prices do seem to show enormous momentum, and sudden changes in the market seem rare. In a speculative market, a sudden change in some component of supply or demand may produce little price change if people think that the change is temporary, and so another component, a speculative component, offsets the sudden change. But the speculative component is inherently psychological, potentially unstable, and subject to contagion and herd behavior. People may change their mind about whether a change in price is only temporary or is the beginning of a new trend. They are especially likely to change their mind because we have professional marketers whose job is to get some kind of social response moving, and, when they do find some advertising pitch that resonates with investors, they will run it for all it is worth.

Analysis of past booms seems to indicate that investors in both the stock market and the housing market seem often not to understand the supply response to price increases. These are normal intelligent people, why would they repeatedly make the same mistake again and again? There seems to be what I will call a uniqueness bias, a tendency for investors to overestimate how unique an investment they favor is, failing to take account of the inevitable supply response to high prices. The uniqueness bias is reflected in quite a number of anomalies of human judgment that psychologists have documented, including the “representativeness heuristic,” “overconfidence,” “wishful-thinking bias,” “spotlight effect” and “self-esteem bias.” The uniqueness bias is related to failure to imagine how many possible competitors there are, a tendency to think highly of oneself and one’s associates and an association of investments with one’s sense of personal identity with an identified business model.

The uniqueness bias has its effect in the housing market when people imagine that the city they live in is unusually attractive, and increasingly so. They fail to understand that new such cities can be constructed in what are today cornfields or forests. In their 1990 paper, “The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust and the Housing Market,” N. Gregory Mankiw and David Weil argued that the housing market would soon crash as the baby boomers retired, neglecting to consider how supply would adjust to any such change in demand. In their 2004 paper “Superstar Cities,” Joseph Gyourko, Christopher Mayer and Todd Sinai argue for extrapolating some long-standing trends in major US cities, arguing that these superstars will only grow in status, assuming implicitly that there can be no new supply of the services those cities provide.

These narrative accounts do not prove anything, and we do not know that the change in thinking that appears to accompany ends of booms was in any sense the cause of the end of the boom. The change in thinking cannot be measured accurately, as we have only media accounts that suggest at it, that represent some journalists’ impressions that may not be replicable. Some economists would therefore be inclined to exclude any such effects from the economic model of the boom, and to try to explain the change in terms of some more well-measured economic effects.

But, if one considers that the prices paid for houses, as for any other speculative investments, surely reflects people’s willingness to pay, then the change in attitudes must have had an impact on prices. Just because we cannot precisely quantify and prove such an effect does not mean we should revert back to a null hypothesis that the changing psychology has no effect on home prices.

The best guess is that ends of housing booms have multiple causes, and cannot generally be interpreted as just an unraveling of boom psychology. Still a rising sense of enthusiasm and excitement for the investments, followed by a sense of betrayal and embarrassment at having fallen for the boom and underestimating the supply response to the boom, played a significant, if unquantifiable, role in the booms and their subsequent break.

I'll be Home for Christmas

I’ll be home for Christmas
You can plan on me
Please have snow and mistletoe
And presents ‘neath the tree

Christmas eve will find me
Where the love light gleams
I’ll be home for Christmas
And you’ll be in my dreams

I’ll be home this Christmas, darling
I’ll be coming home to you
And there’s nothing in the world
Gonna get in my way

I’ll be home for Christmas
You can plan on me
Please have snow
And mistletoe
And presents ‘neath the tree

Christmas eve will find me
Where the love light gleams
I’ll be home for Christmas
And you’ll be in my dreams
I’ll be home for Christmas
Till then you’ll be in my dreams

I’ll be Home for Christmas — Josh Groban

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51 Valley Terrace Kitchen

Asking Price: $1,890,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $472,500

Downpayment Needed: $378,000

Purchase Price: $1,850,000

Purchase Date: 7/24/2007

Address: 51 Valley Terrace, Irvine, CA 92603

Sales HistoryRollback
Date………….. Price
07/24/2007 $1,850,000
05/11/2005 $1,925,000

Beds: 5
Baths: 4.5
Sq. Ft.: 3,300
$/Sq. Ft.: $573
Lot Size: 8,400 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family ResidenceREO
Style: Other
Year Built: 2004
Stories: Three or More Levels
View(s): City Lights, Hills, Mountain
Area: Turtle Ridge
County: Orange
MLS#: P608773
Status: Active
On Redfin: 39 days

Gourmet Kitchen AwardFrom Redfin, “Stunning 5 BR 4.5 BA Model Pefect Home in The Executive Guard Gated Communityof the Summit at Turtle Ridge, Large Corner Lot. Professional Landscaped w/ Fountains, Outdoor Fireplace & Built-In BBQ * * Stunning Views * * Gourmet Kitchen w Stainless Vicking Appliances & Built-In Refri * * Expensive Hardwood, Marble Floor * * Venetian Plastered walls * * It’s A MUST SEE. 51 Valley Terrace, Irvine * *”

Asterisks instead of periods? What is wrong with periods?

A Gourmet kitchen, of course. Remember our graphic?

Expensive floor. Ooooh! I am impressed. It isn’t necessarily high quality, it is just expensive. I guess if you are only pretending to be rich, cost is more important than quality.

Venetian Plastered walls? Did they bring an artist in from Venice to do this work?

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If the lender can get their asking price, and if they pay a 6% commission, they will lose $148,400 from the original sales price.

BTW, San Diego has been a leading indicator of our market since 2000. They started to bubble first, and they started to collapse first. Have you seen the latest chart?

San Diego Prices

Like many of you, I will be spending time with family over the holidays. There will be a new post every day, and if any of you want to check in and talk about your holiday, it will be a welcome respite from the hardcore housing crash discussions we have been having. I hope you all stop by for a dose of classic Christmas music from Bing Crosby, Josh Groban, and Frank Sinatra. I wish you all a happy holidays, and I will be back next week to finish off 2007 with more coverage of ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’

🙂

I’ll Be Home For Christmas — Frank Sinatra
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