Monthly Archives: September 2007

Ridin' The Storm Out

Ridin the storm out, waitin for the thaw out

On a full moon night in the rocky mountain winter.

My wine bottles low, watching for the snow

Ive been thinking lately of what I’m missing in the city.

Ridin’ The Storm Out — REO Speedwagon

Link to Music Video

Have you been feeling like we on this blog are Ridin’ The Storm Out? I do. Does anyone remember the final scene in Terminator? Sarah Conner is told by a gas station attendant that a storm is coming. She responds, “I know” with a deep reflective look of someone who has seen the future Armageddon. Can you relate?

We have broken an important psychological level for pricing in Quail Hill. Today’s property is a bank REO that went for under $500,000 a few months ago. It is back on the market now, and the bank isn’t even trying to get above the $500,000 mark.

212 Dewdrop Front 212 Dewdrop Kitchen

Asking Price: $499,000IrvineRenter

Bank Purchase Price: $477,000

Bank Purchase Date: 6/8/2007

FB Purchase Price: $551,000

FB Purchase Date: 6/30/2005

Address: 212 Dewdrop, Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 2REO

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 1,200

$/Sq. Ft.: $417

Lot Size: –

Type: Condominium

Style: Contemporary

Year Built: 2004

Stories: Two Levels

Area: Quail Hill

County: Orange

MLS#: S502633

Status: Active

On Redfin: 7 days

From Redfin, “BANK OWNED !!! Stunning 2 story Townhome with lots of top notch upgrades. Quiet interior street, large living room, dining room, guest bath downstairs, courtyard patio entrance, 2 car attached garage. Walk to Park, Playground and Shopping. Resort living !!”

Is being BANK OWNED something to get excited about? I guess it is worth ALL CAPS and three exclamation points!!!

What are top-notch upgrades? Are there bottom-rung upgrades?

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Bear with me on this conjecture, but based on the REO purchase price, I am guessing this was an Option ARM that exploded. The primary mortgage should have been 80% of the original purchase price or $440,800. If the bank was willing to bid $477,000 at a foreclosure auction, this likely represents the outstanding balance on the first mortgage. Only an negative amortization loan with a low teaser rate would grow by $36,200 over two years.

Negative Amortization loans — great innovation… Not.

Judging by the description, there is a realtor involved in this transaction. If the bank gets their asking price, and if they pay a 6% commission, they stand to lose $81,940. Although when you think of the other costs involved with the foreclosure, the real loss was likely much higher.

BTW, Do you like our new REO symbol?

Summer Breeze

See the curtains hanging in the window

In the evening on a Friday night

A little light a-shining through the window

Lets me know every thing’s all right

Summer breeze, makes me feel fine

Blowing through the jasmine in my mind

Summer breeze, makes me feel fine

Blowing through the jasmine in my mind

Summer Breeze — Seals and Crofts

Link to Live Performance Video

Link to Studio Version

This property was previously featured in June: Woodbridge Knife-Catchers.

A reader has been watching this property and has emailed me with some juicy details I want to share with you today.

17 Seawind Front17 Seawind Kitchen

IrvineRenterOld Asking Price: $599,900

New Asking Price: $549,000

Purchase Price: $490,100

Purchase Date: 4/30/2007

Address: 17 Seawind, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,058Knife Catcher Award

Year Built: 1984

Stories: 1

Type: Condominium

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Woodbridge

$/Sq. Ft.: $519

MLS#: P594916

Status: Active on market

On Redfin: 15 days

From Redfin, “Beautifully upgraded home in Woodbridge near the lake. Highly upgraded with hardwood floor thru entire house, tile floor in the bathroom, granite counter top, crown & base moulding, just painted, private spa in the backyard. Walk to lake, park, and lots lots more!!”

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This unit does not see the lake, it isn’t on a park, it doesn’t even have a yard, it is a nondescript, tiny tract home in the middle of Woodbridge — for sale in a declining market. WTF?

WTFWell, this unit was purchased by a realtor. Perhaps business is slow this year? Not long after she put this unit on the market for $599,900, a comparable property at 29 Whitecloud came on the market for $599,000. This unit is 30% larger than 17 Seawind, and it is overpriced as well. Not daunted by the competition, our kool aid addicted realtor actually raised her price to $605,000. WTF?

When both properties languished on the market, the owner of 29 Whitehead lowered their price to the current $569,000. So how does our realtor/flipper/knife-catcher respond? She raises the price to $610,000. WTF?

Well, as you might imagine, neither property sold and they were pulled from the market in order to reset the “days on market” number. Now they are both back for sale, and they are both still overpriced.

At least this realtor has something to do. She can sit in her homedebtor’s prison each weekend running an open house. Perhaps she finds some leads on some other overpriced stucco boxes she can fail to sell?

Honey, I Lost the House

Since it is a holiday, I thought we could try something a little different.

When I first saw the cartoon above, I could imagine the final scene played out in millions of households across America as the bubble deflates. At some point, it will become painfully evident to each family that they are about to lose their home. It will not be a happy moment.

How do you feel about that? Sad, mad, glad?

Home Sales Data thru 8-27-2007

Median sale price

Sales volume

ZIP

code

Prev. 4 weeks

% change

from 06

Prev. 4 weeks

% change

from ’06

92602

$850,000

10.4%

19

-38.7%

92603

$865,000

-17.6%

32

-5.9%

92604

$630,000

-3.8%

24

20.0%

92606

$727,500

-3.0%

20

-4.8%

92612

$685,000

3.4%

43

79.2%

92614

$531,000

-11.5%

11

-62.1%

92618

$590,000

-3.7%

22

22.2%

92620

$750,000

-9.0%

58

-1.7%

Flipper is a Whale ** Update 1 **

Originally posted March 22, 2007.

He’s back. The same house; the same price. Still no chance…

Mahogany Kitchen

Asking Price: $2,299,500

Purchase Price: $2,050,000
Purchase Date: 5/23/2006

Address: 29 Mahogany Drive, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 7IrvineRenter
Baths: 6.5
Sq. Ft.*: 4,200
Lot Sq. Ft.*: 12,000
Year Built: 1996
Stories: 2
Neighborhood: Northwood
$/Sq. Ft.*: $548
MLS: S478955
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 6 days

Redfin, Zillow

Does anybody remember the TV show about the dolphin Flipper? In the world of sea mammals, whales are bigger than dolphins, and in the parlance of Las Vegas, Whales are the biggest of the high rollers. The flipper of this property is a whale. Who else would try to flip a $2,050,000 property? Assuming a 6% sales commission, if he gets his $2,299,500 asking price, he will make a profit of $111,530. Not bad for simply owing real estate for 10 months. Isn’t 15% “in the bag?” This guy isn’t greedy, he is only looking for 10% or about 1% a month. Unfortunately, the market seems to have moved the other direction at about the same speed.

{adsense}

Our whale may have some difficulty with this one. He bought right at the peak, and Zillow thinks his property is only worth $1,756,674. Not good if you are trying to convince someone you need to get $550,000 more than that. What does Zillow know anyway? Tract homes in Irvine should be going for over $2,000,000. It’s the new paradigm.

.Flipper

They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of wonder,
Flying there-under, under the sea!