Monthly Archives: August 2007

Home Sales Data for July 2007

From the OC Register: “For the month of July 2007, sales for all types of Orange County home sales decreased 19.8 percent. The median sales price did not change. The median is where half the homes sold for more and half for less. Types of homes selling, as well as home value changes, cause the median to change.

 “Change” is based on comparison to same period one year ago.

Median sale price

Sales volume

ZIP

code

July 2007

% Change

July 2007

% Change

92602

$746,500

0.6%

21

-8.7%

92603

$855,000

-37.5%

40

42.9%

92604

$637,500

-1.9%

21

0.0%

92606

$725,000

-3.3%

21

5.0%

92612

$745,000

15.7%

43

104.8%

92614

$503,000

-16.2%

10

-56.5%

92618

$590,000

-5.6%

22

46.7%

92620

$743,500

-11.3%

52

8.3%

Source: DataQuick

Guess who can undercut the builder?

Address: 1428 Scholarship, Irvine, CA 92612

Plan: 2AL 1213 sq ft – 2+loft/2

MLS: P555577 DOM: 216

Sale History: none

Price Reduced: 04/16/2007 — $624,990 to $594,990

Current Price: $594,990

Although we’ve covered Avenue One before, I think this deserves another post. 1428 Scholarship is a brand new home (Plan 2AL) listed by K. Hovnanian (the builder). After a couple months on the market, the builder dropped the price by $30,000. Apparently, it wasn’t enough to get this place sold (even in the busy summer season). The property is still on the market 4 months after the price cut.

Before we get to who is undercutting the builder, let’s see who the builder is undercutting.

s497758a.jpg s497758.jpg

Address: 2475 Scholarship, Irvine, CA 92612

Plan: 2AL(?) 1253(?) sq ft – 2+loft/2

MLS: S497758 DOM: 30

Sale History: $687,469 (?) on 4/5/2006 (from Property Tax Records)

Current Price: $669,000

The builder is severely undercutting the investor that owns 2475 Scholarship. This investor (a RE agent) is currently renting out the unit. The price is significantly higher than what the builder is offering. But wait, it comes “Fully FURNISHED!!” It looks like it is the same floor plan as the unit above but I’m not 100% sure.

So the builder is making it hard for flippers and investors to make money. This is nothing new for Avenue One. Now, let’s look at a unit that is going to make it hard for the builder to move their product.

p593507b.jpg p593507f.jpg

Address: 1442 Scholarship, Irvine, CA 92612

Plan: 2AL 1253 sq ft – 2+loft/2

MLS: P593507 DOM: 10

Sale History: $692,595 (?) on 7/26/2006 (from Property Tax Records)

Current Price: $539,900

This looks to be the same exact floorplan as the two properties above. The price is $130,000 less than the investor flip and $55,000 less than what the builder is asking!

How is this possible? How can someone sell a property for less than the builder? Meet the bank 🙂 This is a Bank Owned property but I don’t have the details on the foreclosure. If someone has access to the info, please post it.

Perhaps this unit is priced low to generate interest. If it does sell near this price, it’s going to hurt the comps in a big way considering that it looks to have been purchased for almost $700k last year.

Any guesses which property (Builder, Flipper, or Bank) will sell first? And when?

Putting on the Ritz

Have you seen the well-to-do up and down Park Avenue

On that famous thoroughfare with their noses in the air

High hats and Arrow collars, white spats and lots of dollars

Spending every dime for a wonderful time

Putting on the Ritz — Irvine Berlin

Video of Fred Astaire

Aren’t all houses in Irvine on par with the Ritz-Carlton? Judging by the prices, one would think so.

14 Carlton

Asking Price: $747,900IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $678,868

Purchase Date: 5/17/2007

Address: 14 Carlton, Irvine, CA 92620

Sales History

Date Price

05/17/2007 $678,868

06/01/2006 $825,000

Beds: 4

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 2,193

$/Sq. Ft.: $341

Lot Size: 5,005 sq. ft.

Year Built: 1979Rollback

Stories: 2

Type: Single Family Residence

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Northwood

MLS#: S497260

Status: Active

On Redfin: 31 days

From Redfin, “Corner lot with good curb appeal. Ceramic tile kitchen counter tops and wainscoting in bathroom. This home is located near great shopping centers and schools.”

Note the lack of normal realtor BS.

.

.

The owner of the property is listed as Citigroup Global Markets Realty, so I assume this is an REO. It appears as if their loss mitigation procedure is to try to get half of their first second (thanks ocbear!) mortgage back. The asking price is 10% under the original purchase price which was likely the amount of their 80/20 loan. It will be interesting to see how much they actually lose before they sell it.

If they got it at auction for $678,868, then the property is probably not worth much more than that. Of course, at an auction you need to be ready with a cashiers check on the courthouse steps, so that does preclude many buyers, but it doesn’t mean they will get an additional $69,032 either.

Racing Rutherford

The Texas-raised “Lonestar J.R.” (Johnny Rutherford) is one of eight drivers to win the prestigious Indianapolis 500 mile race at least three times: in 1974, 1976, and 1980. He was one of the best of his era.

There is another Rutherford involved in a race. This time it is a property on Rutherford Street in Irvine, and the race is to the bottom…

9 Rutherford Front 9 Rutherford Kitchen

Asking Price: $999,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $1,135,000

Purchase Date: 9/28/2005

Address: 9 Rutherford, Irvine, CA 92602

1st Loan $851,250

2nd Mtg. $56,750

Downpayment $227,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 2,200

$/Sq. Ft.: $454

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 2003Rollback

Stories: 1

Type: Single Family Residence

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Northpark

MLS#: S497994

Status: Active

On Redfin: 26 days

From Redfin, “Desirable single-level in a cul-de-sac location has large kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances and separate breakfast area. House has custom built-ins, crown molding and HW flooring in the living areas. Master suite has a generous bathroom and French doors leading to professionally landscaped garden. Two additional bedrooms (one could be office) complete this lovely home. The private back yard has a large patio cover, BBQ and Malibu lights. The community offers pool, spa and gym.”

.

.

You must admit, this is an eye-popping rollback. If they get their selling price, and they pay a 6% commission, these sellers stand to lose $195,940. I admire that these people have accepted the reality of the market and have decided to get out before this becomes a short sale.

The race to the bottom continues…

Here he comes

Here comes Speed Racer

He’s a demon on wheels

He’s a demon and he’s gonna be chasin’ after someone.

Video to Cartoon Trailer

Scorched Earth

Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord;

He is trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored;

He hath loosed the fateful lightning of His terrible swift sword;

His truth is marching on.

Glory! Glory! Hallelujah! Glory! Glory! Hallelujah!

Glory! Glory! Hallelujah! His truth is marching on.

Battle Hymn of the Republic — Julia W. Howe

Link to modern rock video version

During the civil war, Major General William Tecumseh Sherman of the Union Army took the city of Atlanta and proceeded to march to the city of Savannah destroying everything in his path (Sherman’s March to the Sea.) He ordered his troops to burn crops, kill livestock, consume supplies, and destroy civilian infrastructure along their path. This ancient warfare technique is know as scorched earth. This policy is often also referred to as total war.

There is a class of warrior operating in our housing market: flippers. I say they are warriors because they are at war with regular families, coming in to buy any property perceived to be of value. They will be glad to sell the property to a regular family — after a significant markup. The market has ways of dealing with flippers: its own scorched earth policy. It is called a bear market.

We have been profiling many flips recently. Some are REOs where the intention is not profit but loss mitigation, but many have been flips purchased by speculators. One of the memes floating around the MSM is that speculators have left the market. We have plenty of evidence to the contrary.

Actually, I rather like it. If I were going to pick two categories of property owners I would most like to see end up as bagholders for the decline over the next few years, it would be flippers and lenders.

24 Atlanta Front 24 Atlanta Kitchen

Asking Price: $729,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $611,000

Purchase Date: 3/28/2007

Address: 24 Atlanta, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 4

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 2,011

$/Sq. Ft.: $363Knife Catcher Award

Lot Size: 3,870 sq. ft.

Year Built: 1978

Stories: 2

Type: Single Family Residence

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Northwood

MLS#: S488429

Status: Active

On Redfin: 90 days

From Redfin, “BLOWOUT PRICE!Great double CDS location withing walking distance to al l Northwood facilities. Open, spacious 4 br floorplan w/ new remodeled kitchen and baths. Right out of Metropolitan magazine. .. !Impressive trio of schools, convenient central Irvine location ! GREAT VALUE!!Reduced. .. .BEST price home in Northwood.”

BLOWOUT PRICE! — BS.

GREAT VALUE!! — BS.

Right out of Metropolitan magazine. — LOL!

.

.

At almost 90 days on the market, I don’t think this flip is working out as planned. They still have room to lower their price and get out before this becomes a loser. They are going to need it.

.

They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,

No-one you see, is smarter than he,

And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of wonder,

Flying there-under, under the sea!

Video of opening theme song