Happy Birthday IHB!

I can’t believe it has already been 1 year since we started the Irvine Housing Blog. A lot has changed in that time: lending standards have tightened, OC inventory has continued to pile up, OC builders have reduced their pricing, foreclosures have picked up, sales have slowed down, 160 major US lending operations have “imploded”, and the US Dollar has set record lows.

Although not as drastic as what has happened to the housing market, IHB has gone through a number of changes as well. ISM and I began this without knowing whether anyone would be interested in what we were going to write. Lucky for us, two sites that provided our inspiration (OC Fliptrack RIP and Bubble Tracking), linked to us and that really got things moving.

Take a look at our stats:

We went from less than 50,000 pageviews in October 2006 to over 550,000 pageviews in August 2007. Do a Google search for ‘housing blog’ and IHB is the 5th site (6th link) listed! There are a few items on this chart I’d like to point out (1, 2, and 3):

  1. The IHB Forums were launched on January 2, 2007. What began with a slow start eventually turned into a very active and knowledgable community. We have 525+ members, 940+ threads, and 17,000+ comments and every day these numbers continue to grow. There is a wealth of information here ranging from Irvine tract and village information to discussions about architecture and design to threads devoted to wine and beer. The forums also gave rise to our IHB T-shirts (thanks Nude!). More recently, we implemented a live chat (thanks Caycifish!) that has proven to be quite popular.
  2. Irvine Renter joined the IHB team with his first post on February 27, 2007 and he’s been simply incredible! Although I realized he knew his stuff, I was still surprised by the sheer volume and depth of topics that he has educated all of us on. He has taken this blog to another level and we’ve received tons of positive feedback from people who have enjoyed and benefited from his writings (especially his analysis posts). The community profiles that he has written clearly show his love for the City of Irvine; take a look at the beautiful pictures and you may discover a park or tract that you weren’t aware of before.
  3. An article by Daniel Gross of slate.com linked to IHB on July 26, 2007. The article was syndicated in the Washington Post and Newsweek/MSNBC and brought some great national exposure to our site.

Many thanks to ISM, graphrix, and socalhousingbubble for their solid contributions. In addition to the main blog posts, there have been numerous blog comments that have provided insight into the feature properties. An interesting stat is that our spam blocker has caught 20,072 spam comments as of this moment. I also want to thank Redfin and our other site sponsors for their support!

Thanks everyone for a fantastic year! All of your contributions are what has made this site become what it is. What’s next? We want to keep the momentum going and we’ve got some ideas for the site that we are planning to implement soon. As always, we’re happy to listen to your suggestions on how to bring more value to our readers.

Go IHB!

$1,000 Grand

If I Had a Million Dollars

If I had a million dollars (If I had a million dollars)

Well I’d buy you a house (I’d buy you a house)

And if I had a million dollars (If I had a million dollars)

I’d buy you furniture for your house (maybe a nice chesterfield or an ottoman)

And if I had a million dollars (If I had a million dollars)

Well I’d buy you a K-Car (a nice reliant automobile)

And if I had a million dollars, I’d buy your love

If I had a million dollars I’d build a tree-fort in our yard

If I had a million dollars you could help, it wouldn’t be that hard

If I had a million dollars — Barenaked Ladies

Link to Music Video

Million Dollar Bill

$1,000 Grand: a million dollars. Today’s WTF award winner thinks his house has appreciated $1,108,000 in the last year — a year in which we have shown rollbacks of 10%-20%. We even documented a neighbor who went into foreclosure and sold at a 20% loss, but somehow this house has appreciated 25%. WTF?

25 Grandview Front 25 Grandview Kitchen

Asking Price: $4,495,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $1,123,750

Downpayment Needed: $899,000

Purchase Price: $3,387,000

Purchase Date: 5/19/2006

Address: 25 Grandview, Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 5WTF

Baths: 5.5

Sq. Ft.: 5,900

$/Sq. Ft.: $762

Lot Size: 0.32 acres

Type: Single Family Residence

Style: French, Traditional

Year Built: 2006

Stories: Two Levels25 Grandview View

View(s): City Lights, Hills, Mountain, Panoramic, Trees/Woods, Valley, Has View

Area: Turtle Ridge

County: Orange

MLS#: U7003538

Status: Active

On Redfin: 37 days

From Redfin, “Beautiful La Cima estate in Turtle Ridge. 5 Bed, 5.5 bath with exceptional panoramic views of hills and city lights. Built in 2006 by Laing Luxury, enjoy an upstaris Master and a downstairs Jr Suite, downstairs playroom, and upstairs bonus room. 4-car garage, 1,200 bottle climate-controlled wine cellar, pre-wired for custom sound in and out. Approved plans for custom pool and spa.”

Approved plans? You mean you want a million dollars more than you paid, and you didn’t even bother building the pool? WTF?

Maybe this seller put a million dollars worth of wine in the cellar? He must have added some value…

This appears to have been purchased new from the builder. Nice to know the builder found their bagholder.

.

.

Kool Aid Man

Weren’t the bubble years great? You could just buy a property, hold it for a year, and make a million dollars. Isn’t that the way it works? Everyone is making 25% more money each year, right?

When you see a listing like this, do you get a sense of what a Ponzi Scheme this whole bubble really was? When does it all end? Will this house be worth $6,000,000 next year, and $8,000,000 the year after that?

This seller is certifiably crazy in my opinion. Do you think kool aid intoxication a disease? I wonder if there is a treatment? I suppose this seller could be made to read the Irvine Housing Blog every day. A few weeks of reading here should cure almost anyone.

A Buyer's Market

One of the most poignant songs about the frustration and disappointment of unrequited love is Bonnie Raitt’s “I Can’t Make You Love Me.” With a little retooling of the lyrics, it could be equally expressive of the frustration and disappointment of failing to sell a home.

Bonnie Raitt on Video

Bring down the price, bring down the rent

Let me pay back, the money I was lent

Forclose on me, for all of my buys

Just help me close, please qualify — please qualify for me

Cause I can’t make you buy me if you don’t

I can’t make a good deal, I owe too much on my note

I’m near a park, with beautiful flowers

I’ll go way down on price, I’ll re-tile the showerBonnie Raitt

but you won’t, no you won’t

Cause I can’t make you buy me if you don’t

I’ll close my eyes, then I won’t see

The fall of the market all around me

Foreclosure will come and I’ll do what’s right

I’ll borrow ’til then, to the very last night

And I will give up this fight

Cause I can’t make you buy me if you don’t

I can’t make a good deal, I owe too much on my note

I’m near a park, with beautiful flowers

I’ll go way down on price, I’ll re-tile the shower

but you won’t, no you won’t

Cause I can’t make you buy me if you don’t

I Can’t Make You Buy Me — IrvineRenter

.

.

When the market turned up in the late 1990’s the balance of power in the market shifted. During the last decline, the buyers had an advantage. During the bubble the advantage went to the sellers. The seller’s market went on for so long and became so feverish that people have forgotten (or may never have known) what it was like to see buyers in control of the action. The purpose of this post is to re-educate buyers on how to behave in a buyer’s market.

Buyers have the Power

As a buyer, you must remember you are the one in control. You are the scarce commodity in the marketplace. The seller is one of many for you to chose from, and they are all desperate. They need you. You don’t need them. No matter who you buy from, you are going to leave all the other sellers disappointed because they are going to continue to be trapped in their homedebtor’s prison. You can’t please everyone, so focus on pleasing yourself.Screw the Sellers

Screw the Sellers

Don’t become concerned with the sellers needs, wants and problems. Does it matter to you if this house is their entire savings for retirement? Do you care if a sale below a certain price puts the seller into bankruptcy? If these issues matter to you, ask yourself this, “Would you give them money if you were not buying their home?” Unless you are running a charity, you should not care about the consequences of someone else’s financial decisions. They created their own problems, it is not your responsibility to solve it by overpaying for a house.

Pay the Lowest Possible Price

This may sound like common sense, but the behavior of knife catchers over the last couple of years shows otherwise. Don’t ask for or take any incentives, and pay your own closing costs. You are paying for this stuff, it is just buried in your loan. You will be paying interest on this purchase for the next 30 years, and you will be paying a 1% property tax on these costs for as long as you own the house. You are far, far better off lowering the price and foregoing the incentives and paying your own closing costs.

Use a Buyer’s Brokerage Like RedfinRedfin

Redfin and other buyers brokerage typically kick back 2% to you at closing. Work out a deal with them in advance where they will agree to take a 1% commission at the closing so you can lower the price by 2%. Again, you are paying taxes on the purchase price, so you want to make this as low as possible.

Your First Offer is Your Best Offer

This is the most counter-intuitive part of buying in a buyers market. Ordinarily sellers, or more accurately the seller’s realtor, try to create a sense of urgency to buy the house. They want you to think other people are looking, there is going to be a bidding war, you need to get your offer in today, etc. Remember, in a buyer’s market these ploys are all lies. You are the only buyer, and you can take as long as you want to buy the house. Your task in negotiating is to create a sense of urgency and panic in the seller. This is why you make your first offer your best offer.

First offer

Start with a bid at least 10% below asking price; however, it can be less if the most you are willing to pay is less. Lower your bid as follows:

  • If you are actively bidding on the property, make your offers expire in 5 days. If you are still interested in the property resubmit a fractionally-lower offer after 7 days (make them sweat for 2 days.) Don’t make is so much lower as to lose consideration, but make it enough lower that the seller gets the message that they need to come to your price before it gets any lower.
  • If the seller makes a counter offer, retract your offer and resubmit a lower one. Works the same as the time decay offer above. After you have lowered your offer a few times, the seller may panic and take your offer before it goes any lower. This is what you are after.
  • Lower your offer $500 each time you speak with the seller’s realtor. Every time they communicate with you, they will pressure you to buy. Lower your bid each time they speak with you to send a message that their pressure is not working, and it is, in fact, hurting their client.
  • Lower your offer $2,000 if the realtor uses one of the standard lies I mentioned above.
  • If the realtor tells you there is another bidder on the property, immediately withdraw your offer and tell them to call you if it falls out of escrow with the other buyer. Since this statement from the realtor is almost certainly a lie, it will cause them to have to explain to their client why the only buyer around has pulled their offer.

Don’t Close the GapClose the Gap

When the seller starts to counter-offer, it is very tempting to agree to their price to close the deal, particularly if they are below your original offer. Don’t do it. In a buyer’s market, the seller will come to you. You have the power. However, if they are below your original offer, and if you really, really want the house, you may raise your offer one time, but do not get closer than 1% to their counter-offer. The selling broker makes a 3% commission, and the realtor you have been dealing with probably makes 1.5%. By getting to within 1% of the seller’s counter-offer, the realtor can choose to give up part of their commission to make the deal. Since they are desperate as well, you should go ahead and squeeze them. A 1/2% commission is better than no commission.

After you have agreed on price

Just because you have reached agreement on the sales price does not mean you are finished making this deal the best it can be. Go through your inspection sheet and establish holdbacks for all repairs. Make the holdback amount 150% of the lowest qualified bid. Say you are doing this as an incentive for the owner to get this work done before move-in. Also, if there are decorative items you do not care for, use the same holdback procedure for these items. The time to get your granite tops is before you move in.My Way or the Highway

If you are really tough

For those of you with nerves of steel (and a desire to abuse your power,) I have a few additional suggestions for you:

  • A week before closing, tell the seller or realtor you are considering pulling out of the deal because you have found another property you like. See if they offer you an additional discount.
  • Three days before the closing, withdraw your offer and say you want an additional $1,000 off. Offer no explanation: You are only doing it because you can.The Devil
  • Ask the seller to write you an emotional letter thanking you for purchasing their home. Send back the first one they give you saying they did not praise you enough.

Conclusion

Not everyone has what it takes to implement all of these price-busting techniques. However, the more of these you put into practice, the lower the price you will pay for the home you want. You will never see the seller or the seller’s realtor ever again. It does not matter if you offend them. In the end, they will be relieved you bought the house even if you made their lives hell in the process.

.

.

As a buyer, it is time to be upbeat. There is a song that uniquely captures the joy of finding what makes you happy: Sade’s “Your Love is King.” If reworked, it also captures the joy of buyers in a buyer’s market.

Sade on Video

Your cash is king,

Keep you in my bank.

Your cash is king,

never need to thank.

Your diamond ring,

round and round and round my head.Sade

Wiping all the debt from me.

It’s making my soul sing.

Having the very best of things.

I’m crying out for more.

Your cash is king,

Keep you in my bank.

Your cash is king.

You’re the ruler of my account.

Your diamond ring,

round and round and round my head.

Wiping all the debt from me.

It’s making my soul sing.

I’m crying out for more.

Your cash is king.

I’m spending more, I’m spending.

You’re making me rich, inside.

King

Your cash is king,

Keep you in my bank.

Your cash is king,

never need to thank.

Your diamond ring,

round and round and round my head.

Wiping all the debt from me.

It’s making my soul sing.

Having the very best of things.

I’m crying out for more.

Wiping all the debt from me.

It’s making my soul sing.

I’m crying out for more.

Your cash is king.

This is no bad debt

This is no sad and sorry dream.

This is no bad debt

Your cash…

your cash is real… gotta keep you in my bank,

never, never need to part,

spend me.

Never letting go,

never letting go,

never going to give it up.

I’m spending,

you’re making me rich…

Your Cash is King — IrvineRenter

Home Sales Data thru 9-18-2007

Median sale price

Sales volume

ZIP

code

August

% change

from ’06

August

% change

from ’06

92602

$659,000

-16.6%

17

-58.5%

92603

$1,150,000

31.4%

23

-36.1%

92604

$593,500

-12.7%

20

-20.0%

92606

$742,500

-5.1%

13

-13.3%

92612

$603,000

-5.0%

25

-19.4%

92614

$600,000

3.4%

19

-36.7%

92618

$640,000

19.2%

15

-11.8%

92620

$815,000

-3.6%

46

-28.1%

Look at those sales volume numbers. Yikes!

Lowest Priced 3/2s in Irvine

Just so you know where the leading edge of the market is…

Briarwood Kitchen

Price: $425,000IrvineRenter

177 Briarwood, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,150

$/Sq. Ft.: $370

Lot Size: –

Type: Condominium

Style: Other

Year Built: 1978

Stories: One Level

Area: Woodbridge

County: Orange

MLS#: S486749

Status: Active

On Redfin: 139 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “* * FANTASTIC BUY * * 3 BR 2 BA single level with HUGE backyard, come see the rose garden. Great Location. Everything has been upgraded, from the neutral tiled floors to the granite counters, kitchen cabinets & appliances. 3 Large bedrooms & 2 upgraded bathrooms also with granite & newer cabinets . Newer mirror closets with organizer. It is very lite and brite and definately a 10++ Newer water heater. Walk to all the fantastic amenities, pool, spa, park, tennis, basket & volleyball, schools & shopping.”

HUGE backyard. It is a freakin’ patio! Give me a break.

A 10++? Maybe on a scale from 1 to 100.

” lite and brite and definately” Three misspellings in 5 words, congratulations. I hope she is thankful for the word “and.”

How can realtors say stupid things like this?

.

.

Oval FrontOval Kitchen

Price: $429,000IrvineRenter

133 Oval RD #2, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,110

$/Sq. Ft.: $386

Lot Size: –

Type: Condominium

Style: Other

Year Built: 1972

Stories: Two Levels

Area: El Camino Real

County: Orange

MLS#: S495498

Status: Active

On Redfin: 78 days

From Redfin, “BEST PRICED & MOST REMODELLED UNIT ON THE MARKET. BRAZILIAN CHERRY WOOD FLOORS, RECESSED LIGHTING, REFURBISHED CABINETS, NEW APPLIANCES, MAYTAG STOVE, SCRAPED CEILINGS, NEW PAINT, BRAND NEW GORGEOUS DECORATIVE BATHROOM HAS TILES/BORDER ON WALLS & GRANITE SINK. SURROUND SYSTEM IN LIVING ROOM, MASTER WITH WALK IN CLOSET & CLOSET ORGANIZERS. SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM. EXTRA STORAGE OUTSIDE. BEAUTIFUL SLATE FLOORS IN LARGE BACK PATIO. OPEN FLOORPLAN. SEE THE VIRTUAL TOUR!! PRICE REDUCED”

WHY THE ALL CAPS? I find all caps to be very hard on my eyes. It is painful to read that description.

Are any of you impressed by Brazilian Cherry Wood floors? Sounds rare and exotic, doesn’t it?