Irvine Housing Blog

Didn’t I see that place in “The Silence of the Lambs”?
——-

“Why would a bank foreclose at a number $75,000 over the original purchase price if this had not been refinanced to some peak value appraisal?”

Exactly! It was refied for 585k at the end of 2005 using an ARM loan. Then a HELOC was taken out in 2006.

This dump sold for 317k in 2002, which still looks overvalued to me. Why was it sold three times in just a few years?

No central air conditioning and very poor curb appeal. Yuck!

scary!

Imagine living in a h ouse that looks like a commercial storage facility, right next to a freeway on-ramp.

Worse, imagine living in a cheaply-built, unshaded ranch house in SoCal with NO CENTRAL AIR? I’d like to see summer electric bills for this place.

The worst of all possible worlds.

You guys know that area better than I do- does the lot, being by an onramp to a major highway, have commercial value? Could it be zoned for commercial development?

If I were the bank that owns this hole, I’d sure go to work on local authorities to get high-density commercial zoning for this property. I do whatever it took. It sounds very “Chicago” to say this, but a little $500 campaign contribution to a major local officeholder might pay itself back many thousands of times and if I were the bank I would be trying to make beneficial friendships.

Anyone know how the “red tag” sales went this weekend. I just read an article in the OCRegister and they quoted Hovonian(sp?) as saying it went great. Of course the owner of a financially strapped company isn’t going to say anything else.

How long before we see a major home builder declare bankruptcy?

You could always sleep under Culver Drive if you got foreclosed on.
http://www.flashearth.com/?lat=33.670419&lon=-117.822688&z=19&r=0&src=ggl

Is the basement torture dungeon included in the SF calculations?  “It rubs the lotion on it’s skin or else it gets the hose.”

Nothing a match couldn’t solve…,

It looks like a 3 car garage next to a 2 car garage.

Hilarious.

I’ll take it if they throw in the dog.

That is what I thought.  I can not really figure out what is going on there.  Is that just the architectural style or am I missing something?  I hope I do not offend the owner too much, but this home is truly ugly.

The dog is more attractive.

Its worth $100 SF at max. so it could be torn down and rebuilt.

This one can be summed up in wwo words, folks: grow-house.

IR, what is SFD?  Single Family Dump?

Even if I did not give a damn about real estate, I would still read this blog just to see what obscure song reference IR comes up every morning.  IR—- if you are ever in the mood for a career change, you might want to consider Program Director at JACK-FM 93.1.  Or if you have enough capital, just start up your own XM or Sirius station—- perhaps you could call it “IHB Radio”.

Hi IrvineRenter.  Love your blog!  I started reading it before I moved to Irvine this year.  I can’t wait to buy a house here and am looking forward to the prices coming ddddoooowwwnnn. 

I was reading on CNN today about mortgage fraud and thought that there had been similar discussions on this blog about this type of scam here in Irvine.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/18/mortgage.fraud.heroes/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

Hmm. I wonder what they’re growing in there…

there is a bike path between the 405 and this house that I ride on.  in defense of Westpark, it is a quick roll to the wonderful San Joaquin nature center.  Newport backbay is adjacent or you can head inland for many miles. 

But this house is not alone in being shabby, they all look that way along that path.  I imagine the noise is too deafening to get out and paint and attend to the lawns.  you couldn’t pay me to live in that POS.  ought to be torn down as a public service.

If that house is 1200 sf, how do they get a 5500sf lot? 

Unless they lease the property to the utility for the tower?

Love the financing on the 2004 purchase…  80% first @ $416K with a 2nd for the balance and $0 down.  So the smarty lender that refi’d this puppy @ $585K is going to lose a bundle and inexplicably, BOFA has lost $30K on a 2006 HELOC.  BOFA has been the most conservative lender during the boom probably.  This place must have appraised for over $700K at the peak.  The buyer time his HELOC perfectly - June 2006.

Another house, couple of blocks down on the same street, is pre-foreclosure and will soon be REO.  Those two REOs will decimate some paper net worth for the dwellers of Claremont…

“Why would a bank foreclose at a number $75,000 over the original purchase price if this had not been refinanced to some peak value appraisal?”

Hmm, 2004, 2/28 Option ARM to a 110% LTV, month 29 first month of the reset.  Eight months later, it’s REPOd.

I ride my bike through here all the time. The sound barrier here blocks a lot of the noise. The neighborhood isn’t the greatest but I’ve seen worse. I would think 240k would be a fair price.

If the Fed cuts rates by .25% or .5%, will it have a significant affect on the foreclosure rates and/or the resetting ARMs that lead to foreclosures?

Wow! That is incredible. IrvineRenter, I’ve got to agree with your outlook on the market here in Irvine in some of your other posts and why you won’t buy for several more years. I would sooner move back to the frigid winters of Cincinnati, Ohio, and live in a mansion I might add, than move into that junker here in Irvine. Unreal!

I’m pretty sure they won’t cut the rates(especially by .5%), and it won’t be enough to save anyone even if they do.  The phantom money needs to disappear in order to save the dollar, and in order for that to happen some pain is inevitable.  I’m surprised Ben hasn’t punched Alan yet, if not just to shut him up.

I stand corrected.  I’ll shut up now.

Breaking news on CNN is that the Fed has just cut the fed funds rate by .5%.

WOOOHOOO….

This house will get relisted tomorrow for $624,999.99.

Happy days are here again….  I think my house is suddenly worth 2MIL.

Watch for Hannu Reddy to relist his TRidge Model Home in the sky for 6MIL now.

This is the big question now, isn’t it?

If this rate cut translates into lower mortgage interest rates, then it will help the foreclosure picture somewhat. There is still the problem of qualifying for the refinance with tighter standards.

Also, this may be a good time to review the impact of inflation on interest rates. If this rate cuts causes inflation to move higher (which it probably will,) then banks will start demanding higher interest rates to compensate for the effect of inflation. So the rate cut may have the opposite effect from the one everyone expects. No bank is going to loan money at 6.5% when inflation is running at 5%.

Assuming inflation does not go up, and assuming the LIBOR rate also comes down (this is the rate ARMs are tied to), and assuming risk premiums do not increase, and assuming people can still qualify for the loans, this rate cut will decrease the number of foreclosures.

This house looks like a good candidate for some jewish lightning

All the problems with the housing market are solved. What will we do now?

let’s wait few days to see how long term(10-year) interest rate will change.
it seems fed is trying to save housing market

You have a good point here.  Maybe the Fed is easing us into a inflationary period to let the air out of the bubble slowly.

Even that car outside is ugly.

I think I’ll take a HELOC to 120 LTV and buy a bunch of gold and stash it out of reach in a Swiss safety box.

I’m suddenly rich again.  Forget a flat LCD for my bedroom..  I want an IMAX screen now.

And if the market craters next year… hey, who cares… the dollar will free fall and my gold will be worth a lot of money.

Maybe I’ll buy Hannu Reddi’s TRidge palace for peanuts then.

And that would be?

Foreclosures more than double in past year
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/realtytrac-data-show-more-doubling/story.aspx?guid={0181631D-A2E4-4EFD-9372-BAB7A60D1E37}

Lasner on Real Estate
Standard Pacific Campaign boosts sales
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2007/09/18/standard-pacific-campaign-boosts-sales/

HEY.. HEY… please be nice with the pictures..

I’m eating lunch at my desk, browsing the site and I just clicked on the dog’s picture.

Man…. I felt like barfing on my dual 20 inch monitors.

Let’s keep the site clean, OK?  Please?

Yuck.

Builders’ confidence falls to lowest level ever in September

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-residential-builder-confidence-index-falls-lowest/story.aspx?guid={97F5A848-FAF5-443C-9B9D-44FCA7351DFC}&dist=

Arson

Home builders offer deals to lure nervous buyers

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/home-builders-offer-price-cuts/story.aspx?guid={59AF392D-1246-4BEE-B285-EB6E2A215139}&dist=morenews_ts

Residential builders are launching promotional price reductions and other incentives in a bid to attract anxious homebuyers and move standing inventory off their books.

A three-day national campaign this weekend by Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. featuring price cuts as deep as $100,000 has drawn special attention and was seen as a sign of just how bad things are in the U.S. residential housing market.
...
More deals to come?

Home builders are struggling against a glut of unsold homes, and cancellation rates have surged, resulting in the parade of special offers. But some market watchers think these sales promotions aren’t necessarily a signal that buyers should jump into the market now.
Although Hovnanian’s recent event will likely generate cash flow and reduce the company’s leverage, “competitors are likely to respond with even bigger discounts, so deals for homebuyers are likely to get even better over time,” wrote Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim in a research note this week.
Also, the promotion may trigger more cancellations in Hovnanian’s backlog as buyers “either cancel or renegotiate the contract price to reflect the recent sale price,” the analyst said.
“In addition, we expect mortgage issues to prevent many buyers currently in the backlog from closing without further price concessions, since appraisers will likely use the recent sales as comparisons,” Oppenheim wrote.

O.C. home price, by square feet, at 2-year low

http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2007/09/18/oc-home-price-by-square-feet-at-a-two-year-low/

Fed’s rate cut won’t help consumers who need it the most

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/070918/c145df2759eb4f70b60a7307c642e1ba.html?.v=1&.pf=‘real-estate’

House approves bill helping mortgage borrowers

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/house-passes-bill-aimed-helping/story.aspx?guid={F2CD6FF8-6937-4ABB-BE4D-91DFE996EDBC}&siteid=yhoof

The bill eliminates down payment requirements on FHA loans. The requirement is currently 3%.

Isn’t this exactly what Japan did that screwed its economy for over a decade? I sure as hell hope we don’t go on a rate cutting spree. The Canadian dollar is almost on par with the U.S. dollar now. Heck of a job Bernanke.

Rate cut 0f 0.5%, house coming up with no down payment of FHA loans, everyone in the mother trying to save home owners, what does this tell you? Its simply that things are really fucked up!  More than people know or think, why would Fed cut 0.5% otherwise?

Oil at $81 and looking to go higher, foreclosure wave coming, inflation increasing, dollar falling, interest rates falling further, putting more pressure on dollar and inflation, Damn!  Its going to be on a downward spiral soon.  Alan Greenspan was right when we said that outlook looks gloomy. I say its dark and will get darker.

No

Here we go, Canadian $ is now at 1.01 today after the rate cut. 
Read another article here:
Foreigners’ net acquisition of long-maturity U.S. securities fell to $3 billion in July from $81.8 billion in June, according to a U.S. Treasury Department report released Tuesday

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070918/foreign_investments.html?.v=1

These are July numbers, I bet no body is buying any US secirities and it would be shocking to see Aug and Sep results on how may $$ wotrh of trash US brokers were able to sell to foreigners in the last month.

Any expert here?

Maybe I’ll move to Kyoto with my Irvine Gold.

Nice town.  Very nice town.  Maybe I can get a nice townhouse on the Western part of town.

Canada is too cold, and with the loonie high as it is it will mean that jobs move back to the US side.

buy gold

Amazing.  Coming from Ohio and Minnesota, I’ve been to Canada off an on during my life and I’ve never seen a 1-1 ratio of the USD to the Canadian Dollar.

We used to head into Canada to buy cheap hockey equipment.  When I got older it was to cruise up and drink and gamble.  Nineteen was the legal age in Canada, at least back then.

Isn’t that like planning to dabble with using herion, just to take the edge off?

One thing to clear up here - this house is not in Westpark. It is in an older neighborhood called Culverdale - there are no houses in Westpark that are anywhere near 36 years old. Another tip off that is it not in Westpark is the fact that they state no Mello Roos. All houses in Westpark pay Mello Roos fees.

Dano

It could help reduce foreclosures a smidge via the impact to those that HELOC’d themselves to near death.  Someone with a $200K HELOC balance just saved themselves $100 a month courtesy of the Fed…

The 10-year swung wildly but didn’t move much at all after the announcement.  The bond market has already priced in at least a .25 increase.  The expectation/perception of future cuts will move bonds and that could drive mortgage rates down.

Uh, that would be decrease…  Must be my wish the Fed would increase rates and throw us into a full-blown, panic selling real estate frenzy.  Ah, that would sweet!

The guy who runs the live trading room I frequent was buying a lot of gold futures today. With the declining dollar and the economy in worse shape than widely known (why else the 0.5% rate cut,) gold should trend higher for some time.

Dano,

Culverdale was renamed Westpark Village 1. It is the only neighborhood in Westpark with signage identifying it. Culverdale is now considered part of Westpark.

The house *HAS* windows in front!

They are hidden behind retractable, security shutters that are increasingly common.

The kitchen?  It ugly!

Why will inflation go up?

I wondered what that was. It certainly gives it the look of 3 single-car garages. With the front door around the side of the house, you are left with nothing but garage-door looking features. IMO, this place looks like a storage unit.

I’ve been buying the EFT GLD on dips for the past few months now.  Gold has had a nice break-out since the end of August.  Some say $1K/ounce is possible in the near future, but I’ll start reducing positions in the $800’s unless the US economy is totally in the crapper…

So those 3 extra garages are really covering windows? Dang, I thought I could park my new Land Rover inside, too. <strike>My</strike>

Sounds like something you need in Irvine.

Wow, maybe, but sidewalk to eave “security” shutters across the total front elevation of the house?  Just screams “grow house” as someone else pointed out.  Keep in mind, this is a house without AC.

Lame…

A drop in interest rates will cause the value of the dollar to decline as investors move their money out of dollars into other currencies to purchase bonds from foreign governments offering higher yields. A declining dollar will make all imported items more expensive. Since we import so much stuff (think Wal-Mart and China,) an across the board price hike on imported goods will raise all prices. An increase in prices is one definition of inflation.

I think in one of the Greenspan interviews he said that the housing bubble needs to end quickly rather than slowly, as it causes inefficiencies. 

Seems likely the Fed doesn’t really care about the housing bubble per say - the pain is inevitable, so they just want to get it all over with quickly so we can get back to growing rather than trying to stop the bubble collapse, and then just draw the collapse out over time (like Japan).

Which would work for me, then I don’t have to wait as long to buy.

No…. anyone who knows anything about Irvine does NOT consider “Westpark Village One” a part of Westpark.

Westpark was built on the mid 80s.

Culverdale is just those homes we rush by when trying to beat the lights at the 405 as we come home from Le Target.

They have this stupid light that tends to stop traffic on Culver.

I got lost once in Culverdale…. yikes.  I kept thinking I was gonna find a mobile home park in there.

It certainly does not look or feel like the rest of Westpark.

Huh?

No, no, NO, lendingmaestro!!

You do NOT want to torch this house because the “replacement” value is so little compared to what the property would bringing with some little zoning changes…

....which, I’m sure, can be easily arranged just by getting involved with local politicians and making little contributions to their campaign funds.

With the proper zoning, say, for a commercial-residential mixed-use complex at this convenient highway ramp, the value could be properly inflated. The house itself doesn’t mean a croc.

If the current ownership doesn’t know the local councilman, he/she/they should start to work on this immediately. It’s cheap and easy and gets results. It’s why ratty shotgun 1890s cottages in my area sold for $460K for a while back there. In each and every case, the lot had been upzoned from SF to 6-8 unit multifamily.

Commercial is even better.

Update: O.C. foreclosure filings jump 368%; Calif. ranks 2nd in U.S.

http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2007/09/18/us-foreclosures-spike-115-ca-clocks-second-highest-foreclosure-rate/

UPDATE 1-“Bullish” Countrywide CEO to double branch network

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1839704020070918?rpc=44

I don’t think lowering the rate is going to make it end more quickly unless it ends up pushing interest rates up, which could very well happen.

I could care less about buying a house out here anymore (I just wish the fed would quit trying to kill the dollar)...  Los Angeles is quickly becoming less and less worth it.  A-hole cops, fights breaking out everywhere I try to go, gangs, robbery, anti-smoking propaganda.  Blah.  Time to move back to CO, sell my surfboards and buy a new pair of skis, and buy a big ass house for $400k near the front range.

Question to anyone who may know: Leveraged funds (long) are a good way to beat inflation, no?

Probably because it was built when Irvine consisted of the green office behemoth and orange groves.

I am closer to a fool than an expert, but corporate debt witnessed a severe drop although it did not go negativein July.  July 2007 experienced a stunning drop of $9.37 billion in Treasuries. This jives with what we have been seeing in the Fed custodials where the weekly data is showing severe disgorging of US Treasuries by foreign central banks.

a 5k sf lot is not worth anything commercially - except maybe in an inner city where you don’t need parking. this is in the middle of the block. besides, it would be spot zoning. not gonna happen (imagine the neighbors squawking!)

it almost looks like the front used to be a porch that got walled in as an attempt at adding the cheapest possible sf (given the size of lot an setbacks, maybe the only way to get more sf).  if so, I don’t think it was worth it.

It’s a term used when someone burns their house down on purpose, to collect insurance money.  Obviously not politically correct….

Unfortunately, this is actually one of the standard styles.  There’s a whole bunch of houses of this particular design scattered throughout Culverdale.  All of them are just as ugly.

Sorry to break this to you, but there aren’t any windows behind there.  They are just stucco walls.  I’m not kidding!  I drove by on my way home from work today just to double-check.

Your real estate hasn’t dropped like this property. Credit crunch and luxury slowdown in LA.
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com

Counterpoint article for our usual SoCal spending spree stories

See “The Bolons ” section
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/RetirementandWills/RetireEarly/RetiredBy50WhatItReallyTakes.aspx?page=1

That’s Sam, world champion ugliest dog… he died recently so I’m not sure you want him thrown in the deal.

Btw… He was purebred.

What a beautiful garage.

I just want you to know that I blame you for getting this song stuck in my head.  Hmm….

See this paper for the theory why it works

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200403022/default.htm

Inflation can be a prudent homeowners friend.

Over extended ho & consumers will feel the effects of higher long term interest rates. 

I think there could be some discontinuities in your graphs over the next couple of years as the variables change.  Stable, low inflation is one of the key assumptions in your predictions.  However, there probably isn’t an obvious answer as to how this will affect the overall market.

I was hoping for the Fishbone song.

I must have missed that sign while rushing by to merge onto the 405 freeway. It’s a great marketing idea to call Culverdale “Westpark Village One”. Kind of like saying your house is in the “South Coast” area instead of in Santa Ana near South Coast Plaza…

Speaking of signs - check out the sign near the Boy’s and Girls Club in Woodbridge - it is right by the bike trail. It says there is a “park” there. See if you can find the park….

Dano

Ok, I get it. Thanks!