The housing bubble and crash is causing great psychological harm

Jun 23rd, 2011  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Gemina13
2011-06-23 06:17 AM

“As the debt addicted abandon their entitlements and adjust to living within their means, the economy will slowly improve and be put back on stable footing.”

Actually, it won’t.  Wall Street has no interest in pulling the economy out of a recession, and low wages are just what they are hoping for.  And why should they care?  They can hide money overseas in tax shelters; they’ve outsourced most of the industry and continue to do so; and if the U.S. economy goes south, they’ll relocate in what’s left of Europe and Asia.  Either that, or retire.  Their sole interest is in short-term fixes, and turning the country into yet another banana republic.

Our government is owned by banksters, and I don’t see any improvement heading our way.  Say hello to multiple decades of even lower wages and utter stagnation.

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2011-06-23 09:44 AM

G.13,
Exactly.  Banksters can keep or decrease wages, penison, benefits with the recession and get the govt to bail the banksters out.  Of course the banksters are so necessary that retention bonus were given to keep them at the begining of the recession and are doing such a wonderful job that they deserve performance bonus for getting the bailout.

Astute Observation by GK
2011-06-23 06:25 AM

Wow, that’s some scary decor…add another $50K+ for remodeling (or a big prescription of Prozac)....

Astute Observation by Gemina13
2011-06-23 01:03 PM

Years ago, before the insane housing bubble drove me out of California, I looked at a cute little 3-bedroom in Pasadena.  The owner wanted to sell after his last tenants had destroyed the kitchen tile and painted the hardwood floors in Day-Glo colors.  I never knew purple could glow in the dark before . . .

Suffice to say, I did the math and realized I couldn’t afford the place, so I moved on.  Still, whenever I see a badly-decorated house or condo, I think of that little bungalow.  And right now, I’m thinking, if that owner believed his place had been trashed, he should see THIS place.

Astute Observation by wheresthebeef
2011-06-23 07:28 AM

Wow, a 400K plus loss.  I thought prices never go down in Irvine.  Even at this price, buying in the NKT doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.  That big HOA monthly nut makes this place worth maybe 250K at the most. 

Tip to homedebtor trying to sell.  Put funky art in closet and pick up some guys from Home Depot to paint walls and ceilings a nice, neutral color.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-06-23 07:32 AM

At least this wasn’t advertised as “light and bright.”

Astute Observation by SoOCOwner
2011-06-23 08:04 AM

Yes, it will be a tough sell with this bizarre decor.

Astute Observation by James
2011-06-23 10:44 AM

This person has awful taste in decor.

Astute Observation by Will
2011-06-23 07:34 AM

Thanks for the update on North Korea. It’s always interesting to see what is happening here. That HOA dues figure is outrageous! For that price they’d better bring me coffee in bed every morning!

Astute Observation by Gemina13
2011-06-23 01:00 PM

That, and make me breakfast.

Astute Observation by Bill
2011-06-23 08:12 AM

There’s plenty of very affordable housing out there.  Six years of waiting for Irvine is about entitlement and simple greed.

Astute Observation by CapitalismWorks
2011-06-23 08:35 AM

What do you care? If there is so much affordable housing, why don’t you go buy some?

This is about market value converging to, and then potentially crossing under, intrinsic value.

Personally, I prefer to buy as low a possible, and employ as much patience as I can sustain while waiting for opportunities.

Astute Observation by Bill
2011-06-23 10:03 AM

Tomato, Tomahto.  Just saying how lame it is to bitch and moan about the man holding you down.

Astute Observation by CapitalismWorks
2011-06-23 11:44 AM

Oh, is that what you were saying!? I can’t see how your opening salvo could possibly be construed as such.

That said, I think it is even more lame to bitch and moan about people trying to make informed decisions about the biggest financial decisions they are likely to make in their lifetimes.

Astute Observation by nefron
2011-06-23 05:08 PM

Bill, are you another identity for Planet Reality?  You sound an awful lot like him.

Astute Observation by Frak
2011-06-23 09:16 AM

You mistake canny financial decisions for “greed.” Indeed, putting off purchasing something that you really want now when you can get it for less later…is that greed? Or disciplined frugality?

I may or may not feel (absurdly) “entitled” to live in Irvine, but I do think it an advantage to me (commute-wise in particular), and if I can do it, I will. And if I can do it more cheaply I certainly will. Even if that means less commissions for realtors. Even if they started feeling “entitled” to the high volume of their commissions and to everyone believing their BS.

Astute Observation by Perspective
2011-06-23 10:34 AM

It is “greedy” in the sense that renters don’t want to lose money by purchasing an over-priced Irvine house.

I’m being greedy every time I see a new BMW 5 Series I’d love to own, yet I choose to drive my old Accord and earn (currently minimal) interest on the $45k+.

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-06-23 01:48 PM

Youo are greedy if you behave in any way that means less commissions for Bill.

Astute Observation by wheresthebeef
2011-06-23 09:35 AM

So people who waited out the crash and didn’t give into your realtor stupidity “buy now, prices always go up, it’s different this time, Suzanne researched it” are greedy and feel entitled. 

Go fly a kite in a lightning storm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Astute Observation by Gemina13
2011-06-23 01:05 PM

Spoken from under your bridge, oh troll.

Astute Observation by Soapboxhothead
2011-06-26 11:39 PM

OK “Bil” ... I’ll take the bait ...

“Very affordable housing out there” you say. Hmm…

According to the US Census Bureau, the median household income for Orange County CA is $71,735. (2009 data available)
We can make some reasonable assumptions that figure hasn’t changed much, up or down, in the two years hence, certainly not appreciably.

Using this property as an example, a sell price of $380K is still WELL above the generally accepted parameter of 4x income, $287K (@ even 5x income, it’s still overpriced by about $30K) This property is not alone in that it is STILL chasing the market down. Using rental parity as a guide ... from my own personal experience ... I rent a very comparable townhouse, 1305 sq/ft, 2 bed, 2 1/2 bath “luxury” townhouse with attached 2 car garage, pool, clubhouse with workout facility and security gate. I pay a little over $2100/mo.

I can’t see how buying this place would be a wise or even fiscally responsible act given it’s nearly $1000 more per month to “own” it. So I ask ... how is that affordable?

Astute Observation by finsup
2011-06-23 08:14 AM

My God.  The interior looks smoke damaged.

Astute Observation by *
2011-06-23 08:15 AM

$3,526 .......... Monthly Cash Outlays

$42k/year to live in that dump? lol

Astute Observation by HydroCabron
2011-06-23 08:35 AM

said Goodnight, the printing company owner. “And that’s where we are right now. Everyone is afraid of the deficits. They’re afraid of the new regulations that are coming down fairly soon. They’re afraid about health care. And no one’s going to make a major investment when there’s this much uncertainty in the air.”

That man’s brain is a fully-controlled subsidiary of Fox News.

At least deficits recently became a concern of the political and media classes, on January 20, 2009, at precisely 11:00 a.m. Before, they were just huge war deficits, which are inherently efficient and job-creating government spending. Deficits spent on public works projects at home just kill kittens and create uncertainty.

All this concerns me, except I’m actually more concerned that there won’t be more regulations coming down on places like the financial sector.

A whole lot of people sure care about deficits all of a sudden. Where were they when it was their party creating them?

Astute Observation by Kelja
2011-06-23 10:06 AM

Public works projects? You must be referring to the shovel ready projects that Obama said weren’t quite shovel ready.

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2011-06-23 12:16 PM

For the larger project, CA has enviromental impact study, community impact studies, ....  Some how some polical hack’s relative gets the contract for these multi-million dollar studies.  I would be satified if the money is used to hire large number of people to fix the roads, clean the street, clean the brush, instead of just going to a few individuals for their studies (and they are not even Ph.D.‘s or staticians).

Astute Observation by brianguy
2011-06-28 02:33 AM

WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH


funny how much the first half of the California Kool-Aid sounds just like the preamble Obama’s agenda. 

I think any time deficits are accelerating to the point that our national debt is growing exponentially, that’s probably a reason to raise an eyebrow.  or does the left wing establishment not think rate of change matters?  ah yes, there it is, the all-important “change” we were promised…

Astute Observation by trudy lovejoy
2011-06-23 08:40 AM

something in a basic black ?

darth vader’s OC crash pad or what

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-06-23 09:46 AM

Yeah, straight from Pottery Barn’s Dark Master Collection

Astute Observation by Gemina13
2011-06-24 04:53 PM

I find his lack of contrasts . . . disturbing.

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2011-06-23 09:39 AM

Some thing is wrong when you “purchase” a new luxury condo and then must do upgrades. 

Any pending HOA re-assessments for the non-paying units may be a factor for the price reduction.  Anybody know the finance to the NKT?

What ever party is in full control, it’s party time and drunken sailors on shore leave for restraint.

Astute Observation by HydroCabron
2011-06-23 09:51 AM

If I were parodying a 1986 bachelor pad, I would model it on this place.

Who on earth would live here? A goth who can’t leave high school behind? A bachelor determined to remain a bachelor? President of the Morticia Adams fan club?

Astute Observation by Vincenzo
2011-06-23 10:10 AM

Weren’t these towers built for people who worked very near at New Century and earned $200,000? Now, these people can only find jobs in retail.

The housing bubble and banks sucked in money that would’ve been better invested in manufacturing. Though, manufacturing is considered non grata in OC because it creates pollution, smog, noise, etc, but it also creates jobs (Boeing go away!).

Astute Observation by Duran
2011-06-23 10:59 PM

vincenzo… Hats off to you, the best post I’ve read in ages.

Astute Observation by Soapboxhothead
2011-06-26 11:49 PM

Nah. Actually making something for a living is so last century!

Why work for a living when you can defraud people and shuffle paper around for a fee?  DUH! We just have to wait it out a little bit longer ... the gravy train will soon be roaring down the tracks again and we can all resume living the lives we were MEANT to lead ... Masters of the Universe unite!  (extreme snarkiness intended)

The US can’t even become a third-world country because we don’t have enough disenfranchised working poor to exploit or extort. Though Wall Street is doing it’s level best to ensure we will get there soon ... then they’ll just be vultures picking at the carcass.

Astute Observation by al from Chgo
2011-06-23 10:42 AM

Well, should want to leave one failed state for another here is what $380K will buy 35 miles from downtown Chicago:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/18679-West-Maple-Avenue_Grayslake_IL_60030_M77979-12901

Astute Observation by QualityPicks
2011-06-23 11:24 AM

http://www.housingwire.com/2011/06/23/pending-conforming-loan-limit-decrease-puts-california-on-edge?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed:+housingwire/uOVI+(HousingWire)

“By reducing the conforming loan limit, thousands of California homebuyers will be shut out of homeownership,” CAR President Beth Peerce said.

Oh My God! some people will be shut out from homeownership, that sounds really alarming…wait…if you have a brain and can think (something realtors usually pray you don’t have), you can see your are not being shut out of anything. You just may not afford a much more expensive home. So if you are tight on money and extending yourself, you might only be able to buy a 650k home instead of a 750k home. I’m shedding a tear for these guys, that is so sad, the government must do something!! Can you imagine how sad the kids would be if the family has to settle for an inferior $650k home? sheezz

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-06-23 12:15 PM

Over the last year, the ‘shadow inventory’ (# of properties that are not currently listed on multiple listing services and are delinquent by 90 days or more, in foreclosure and owned by lenders) declined by 200,000 properties. This is comparing the ‘shadow inventory’ of 1.7 million in Feb-Apr 2011 to the 1.9 million properties in Feb-Apr 2010. If this level continues to decrease by only 200,000 each year going forward, it would take 8.5 YEARS to clear ‘shadow inventory’ out of our residential RE market! Unfortunately, this could even be considered a slowdown from 2009-2010, when the ‘shadow inventory’ decreased by 100,000 from Q4-2009 to Q1-2010.

Home “shadow inventory” dips on year: CoreLogic
(Reuters) - The number of U.S. homes likely to hit the market soon fell compared to last year due to fewer new delinquencies and a high level of distressed sales, a real estate research firm said on Wednesday.
CoreLogic reported that the so-called shadow inventory of homes in the three months to the end of April declined to 1.7 million homes. That’s equivalent to a five months’ supply and is down from 1.9 million in the same time frame the year before.
It is also down from the peak level of 2 million homes seen in the three months up to January 2010, CoreLogic said.
...
CoreLogic estimates the supply of homes yet to come up for sale by calculating the number of properties that are not currently listed on multiple listing services and are delinquent by 90 days or more, in foreclosure and owned by lenders.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/22/us-usa-housing-corelogic-idUSTRE75L35C20110622

NAr: “It’s a great time to buy!!!”
http://www.realtor.org/home_buyers_and_sellers/buy_now_ad

Hey, don’t worry, Suzanne researched this!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw

-Darth

Astute Observation by HydroCabron
2011-06-23 12:31 PM

Thanks for the reference for “Suzanne researched this!”

Watched it 4x already, and I’m still shaking with laughter and rage.

I know it’s not a parody, but it’s still tough to accept.

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-06-23 02:14 PM

Yep, anytime I feel my anger over the housing bubble ebbing, I just watch that video and then go to an open house. After a few minutes of hearing some slime-sucking [r]ealtor spout the same old its-a-great-time-to-buy nonsense and try to pass themselves off as highly-trained experts, I know that nothing has changed and there are hundreds of thousands of Suzanne’s out there bullying people into becoming foolish loanowners.

Wanna get really mad? Fast-forward 2-5 years on that family in the video. They’re a few hundred thousand dollars underwater, their payment is spiking, and they’re losing their home. They’re getting a divorce and declaring bankruptcy along with the foreclosure. The kids are living with Grandma while all this gets worked out. The dad’s well on his way to becoming an alcoholic, and the mom’s sleeping with the doctor down the street, because she thinks he’ll be able to give her the home her husband failed to deliver. (After all, it’s HIS FAULT it didn’t work out! It was a great buying choice, because Suzanne researched this!) Meanwhile, where’s Suzanne? She took her 6% and today she’s hunting for some more suckers, so that she can tell them to buy-now-or-be-priced-out-forever!!! All as she cruises around in her leased Lexus SUV. Now multiply that scenario by several million, and I give you America.

-Darth
...furious

Astute Observation by wheresthebeef
2011-06-23 02:22 PM

Too funny!!!!

The only thing Suzanne researched was to multiply the selling price by 3 or 6% and then figuring out what to spend the loot on!

Astute Observation by Pwned
2011-06-23 01:39 PM

I know there have been many stories of renters getting the shaft when the house they’re renting is foreclosed on, but for the first time this is happening to people I know. Their landlord hasn’t been paying the mortgage for years, and has been pocketing the rent. My friends found out the house they’re renting is up for a short sale two weeks after it went on the market. They now have to show the home to prospective buyers, even though it’s unlikely a short sale will happen. The house is scheduled to be taken by the bank in a couple weeks. Looking at other rental homes in their area, accidental landlords are asking for ridiculous rents to cover their insane mortgages - $5,500/month for a basic house. This is an awful situation and just another example of how renters are getting screwed by this whole debacle.

Astute Observation by Widjet
2011-06-23 03:33 PM

So if you find out your landlord is pocketing the rent and not paying the mortgage ... what happens if you stop paying him the rent?

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-06-23 08:18 PM

Most likely you will get evicted.

Astute Observation by Mark
2011-06-23 03:03 PM

It used to be that “tough financial times” brought families tighter together.

I purchased a home where the selling couple was going through a divorce with kids in the mix.  It’s horrible.

The statistical lie is that “67% of marriages end in divorce.” Actually the likelihood of divorce greatly depends whether you’re a man or woman and how old you are, plus your education and financial status.

Whether male or female, if you’re now married and 20-29 years old, you’re definitely in a high-risk age group for divorce.

But if you’re both well educated (college degree +) and affluent, then your risk of divorce amazingly declines.

The housing crash has a funny way of destroying the affluence bit, placing what would otherwise probably be “safe” marriages into a higher risk for divorce.

No romance without finance?

http://www.divorcerate.org/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/number-of-long-lasting-marriages-in-us-has-risen-census-bureau-reports/2011/05/18/AFO8dW6G_story.html?hpid=z3

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2011-06-23 08:54 PM

Remember the serial divorcee(r).  They raise the rates.

Unwed parenting and divorce are two large factors that dramatically increases the change of proverty.  Great for housing, cause two house/apt are needed instead of one.  Great for the RE agents and lawyers.

Astute Observation by HydroCabron
2011-06-23 03:11 PM

It may be time to rewrite the aphorism “Buy when everyone says it’s better to rent.”

I think we’re at least 20% above the eventual floor, but a status-seeking follower friend of ours, who is normally the last person to think for herself, told us that it’s a bad idea to buy a house, because real estate will be stuck in neutral for many years.

This is definitely causing some dissonance - I don’t know what to think here. Maybe the bottom is in after all?

I’ll pass this on to Suzanne, and have her research it.

Astute Observation by anticyclical
2011-06-23 03:37 PM

Yes, if you can see the potential benefits of anticyclical investing it is time to buy now or in the near future (2011-2012), just as it was time to sell when everyone was buying

Astute Observation by Walter
2011-06-23 06:04 PM

All this hate on housing was part of my reasoning to buy.

Astute Observation by *
2011-06-23 07:03 PM

^ that’s a dumb reason to buy

Astute Observation by Walter
2011-06-24 09:17 AM

It was a small part of the decision. Main reason is I found a place I like, at a significant discount to the market (short sale), and I am sick of renting. The payment is less then I could rent for. The hate for housing was a small influence to pull the trigger rather then wait.

I am planning on buying more properties over the next couple years, so I see this as the start of my dollar cost averaging into the market.

Astute Observation by Soapboxhothead
2011-06-27 12:05 AM

Well put!

There’s an aphorism in investing that recalls the same sentiment ... something like “It’s time to sell when the shoeshine boy is giving stock tips”.

I’ve decided to become a “financial contrarian” ... my own description. Whatever the mainstream is doing, i’ll direct my efforts in the opposite direction. Additionally, if Wall St. thinks it’s a good idea ... it’s a fair bet its not in your best interests and it’s only a good idea for them while you’ll get stuck holding the bag ... again.

Beware this phrase dear friends: “Financial Innovation” !!!
(Orwellian for sophisticated ponzi scheme)

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-06-27 06:34 AM

So let me get this straight:

1) You think that the commenters on this board are “the mainstream”.

2) You plan to buy now, because we, “the mainstream”, are uniformly agreed that it’s a bad time to buy.

Good luck with that!

-Darth

Astute Observation by Soapboxhothead
2011-06-27 05:02 PM

You misunderstand.

I’ve been visiting this blog for a few years now so, no ... I do not view the bulk of the commenters here as “mainstream”. By using that term I mean, the average joe, the person who’s easily fooled by sound bites and talking heads. Put bluntly, the lemming mentality.

Perhaps it might make more sense if I paraphrased the infamous aphorism about investing ... “I know it’s time to sell when the shoe shine boy is giving out stock tips”.  If the herd is running in one direction, I’m considering the other direction. It’s not a perfect idea but it helps to serve as a counterweight to prevailing public opinion.

Astute Observation by just some guy
2011-06-23 04:48 PM

people! people!

haven’t you all learned by now!?  Stop…...feeding the trolls!!

Astute Observation by financeguy
2011-06-23 07:55 PM

I completely relate to this post. 

I would love to own a place (within my means) so I can install the floors that I like, paint the rooms the way I want to, remodel it to my taste, etc.  However, I don’t want to own a home that continues to decline in value so I’m stuck renting.

Honestly if I was convinced that home prices would even remain flat for the foreseeable future I would still buy, but not if they continue to decline.

Totally sucks.

Astute Observation by Pascal
2011-06-23 10:36 PM

Wow, darth vador is selling his quarters in the death star.

Hey, it’s OK, he will sell, and loss will be erased, because the Force is with him.

Astute Observation by Spokaneman
2011-06-24 07:28 AM

$840/month HOA fee, really?  Call me provincial, but that strikes me as absurd.  Thats P&I on a fairly nice place out here in the hinterland.

Astute Observation by The Dark Avenger
2011-06-24 10:08 AM

Call me provincial, but that strikes me as absurd.

You get all these goodies for your HOA dollars:

Enjoy the amenities: pool, spa, fitness center, BBQ area, billard room, and conference rooms. State-of-the-art security including 24/7 concierge service, guard-gated access, keyed elevator access, and security cameras.

The HOA used to be around 1,100, so it went down a bit, and these are suppose to be luxury living, the kind of place Bruce Wayne would live in because it was too late to drive home to stately Wayne Manor.

Astute Observation by Richard
2011-06-24 03:42 PM

“Renting lacks an emotional quality of belonging that is difficult to replicate”

You never own your home. Property taxes make you a permanent serf.

You’re living a life of illusion.

Astute Observation by Gemina13
2011-06-24 04:56 PM

That, and the never-ending repairs, replacements, and maintenance, not to mention the possibility of needing to sell when the market’s down.

Astute Observation by Joe R
2011-06-25 07:37 PM

Why all the agonizing about houses going down in price?  Every other thing I’ve bought and used has gone down in price!

Seriously, that’s why the government let me depreciate the house I’m renting out.  I’ll hopefully be out of the landlord business soon when my inherited property sells.

Astute Observation by sair
2011-06-27 10:01 AM

Ha, very true Joe R, everything goes down in value after its “old”.

Astute Observation by brianguy
2011-06-28 02:15 AM

The income breakdown bar chart is a good one, especially for anyone thinking about buying a home going forward.  the interesting part is notice that none of the scenarios include a category for savings, so really this is ex-savings (though let’s face it, most people in the last 5 years really didn’t have any so it’s nearly a moot point).

Astute Observation by Gromit
2011-06-29 09:40 AM

That interior.  Jeeze.

Liberace ain’t dead.  He moved to North Korea Towers and started collecting zombie art.

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