Orange County Sales Falling, Prices to Follow

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by awgee
2010-11-22 07:20 AM

The photos are a bit confusing.  Are they trying to sell this home or ...?

Astute Observation by Laura Louzader
2010-11-22 08:24 AM

What on Earth did these people spend approximately $400K on?

They sure as hell didn’t spend it on the house. The kitchen is a horror and dates back to the 70s, at least. Everything in this house is ugly, outdated, and shabby.

What a shame- these people could probably have safely borrowed about $30K against the house to reno the kitchen, and left it there, and then made small extra payments against their mortgage principal to offset the small HELOC. They’d be beautifully situated now with a house nearly paid off.

Astute Observation by awgee
2010-11-22 08:53 AM

They spent it on food, cars, bills, vacations, and house payments.

Astute Observation by Sue in Irvine
2010-11-22 10:23 AM

I think they re-did the outside. That’s an old neighborhood and I’m pretty sure that’s not the original outside. Did you notice there’s a picture with a man in it? I see you Mr. Heloc Abuse F.

Astute Observation by jb
2010-11-22 12:21 PM

Sue in Irvine, you’re hilarious! smile

I’m about 1/2 way through “Monster”...the book about the subprime players. Things look incredibly bleak from that angle, and I just can’t understand why so many of these players aren’t in prison.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-11-22 06:02 PM

What on Earth did these people spend approximately $400K on?

Oh medical bills I’m sure.

Astute Observation by stillrenting
2010-11-22 09:13 AM

1 s-serie Mercedes : 125k
1 lexus something : 75k
=> 200k$ in cars !

vacations in high-end resort (500 to more/d) + trip
20-35k /year * 5y = 100k$+

left 100k$ ... well, yeah, daily stuff and dinners out for 5years

400k$ for < 50 IQ people goes fast.

While I still wonder if these people have actually a >200 IQ !

Astute Observation by Chris
2010-11-22 11:25 PM

Wouldn’t a couple of new Lambos do the trick?

That list looks long grin

Astute Observation by thrifty
2010-11-22 09:42 AM

Interesting article from Time.com titled:
No Reason to Pay Realtor Commissions When Selling a House

http://money.blogs.time.com/2010/11/02/study-no-reason-to-pay-realtor-commissions-when-selling-a-house/#ixzz161vpi5OJ

Astute Observation by Sue in Irvine
2010-11-22 10:28 AM

So I drove around Woodbury East yesterday. They are thisclose together, packed in like sardines. Even the detached “houses” are close with no yard, maybe a small patio in back right up to the neighbor. It’s nice to look at models, but once they actually build your place you are in for a big letdown.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-11-22 06:04 PM

Did you “MOOOOO” at the residents?

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2010-11-22 10:43 AM

IrvineRenter:

“the median price of a newly built home decreased 1.1 percent.”

I thought the Irvine Company was increasing prices and building even more homes. That isn’t what the statistics are saying.

Wow… I’m surprised you tried to pull this.

Not only is that statistic not directly relevant (lower median price could just mean more homes were built at below the median) but you are trying to tie overall statistics to what is factually happening in Irvine. Take almost any tract in the 2010 New Home Collection, look at Phase 1 pricing and then look at the last phase (I say “last” because almost every tract has SOLD THROUGH). If you don’t think they raised prices… check the batteries on your abacus.

As for increasing building… Stonegate East is selling, Portola Springs is expanding, Cypress Village, Laguna Altera, Stonegate and Orchard Hills are on deck.

Maybe if you drove around and looked at the projects, you could see all the activity. Why don’t you write an article on how well the New Home Collection did despite all the doom and gloom going on every where else. Your blog could benefit from some different perspective once in a while.

And by the way… this doesn’t mean Irvine is totally immune. I do notice lots of softening in the resale market, especially the older homes and the inflated ones sold during the boom… but the declines just aren’t as bad as other places.

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2010-11-22 11:01 AM

Excellent post,
Completely agree with all the points IHO made.
New construction in those areas of Irvine is happening at a frenzied pace.
It’s demand driven.
Where else do you see this momentum in new construction taking place?
In other areas, they can’t give away homes fast enough.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-11-22 01:23 PM

I’m confused I thought this post was talking about Las Vegas, wait Orange County? How about Irvine?

Who’s on first, what’s on second, I don’t know who’s on third.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-11-22 01:32 PM

IHO, you are too thorough in your discussion of the Irvine housing market.  I don’t see much desire here to discect and understand why building is occuring at a feverish pace and large cash down payments are flocking to Irvine.

The approach here is more talk about general housing conditions, a dash of Las Vegas, and a mockery of a HELOC abusers financial history.

Astute Observation by matt138
2010-11-22 02:08 PM

Irvine is still a bubbly cauldron of koolaid thanks to dismal savings account returns, hedging against inflation, shadow inventory choking supply, and foreign cash.

The govt and fed are forcing people to speculate.  RE has less perceived downside risk than cash, savings, etc.

Dissection is futile if you dont see/understand the bigger picture.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-11-22 02:12 PM

Why Irvine?  Is it special?

Astute Observation by matt138
2010-11-22 03:40 PM

Irvine may have a clientele with more sound financials and thus, a greater ability to foolishly overpay.

The overleveraged exist in all cities as does downward pressure on prices, in varying degrees of course.

To say that Irvine is the exempt from market forces is laughable.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-11-22 06:10 PM

The overleveraged exist in all cities as does downward pressure on prices, in varying degrees of course.

Either way - large down payments or not, it’s obvious that these Irvine house debtors are not going to pay off the loans.

Astute Observation by Sue in Irvine
2010-11-22 02:05 PM

I’d say the declines in Irvine are bad IHO. Condos where I live..highest price sold in 2005 was $535,000. Latest sales in 2010 are around $400,000 for the same model.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2010-11-22 02:13 PM

@Sue:

I didn’t say they weren’t bad… just not AS bad as other places.

If that same condo sold elsewhere for $535k, it would probably be $250-300k now.

Maybe worse in the IE or Vegas.

Regardless, new homes pace and pricing in Irvine is phenomenal considering the economic climate. For IR to state the contrary makes me wonder because he is usually straightforward and even he should recognize it.

Astute Observation by Marc
2010-11-22 05:37 PM

All I can see right now in the MLS are dropping prices (when looking at potential purchases). Here is a typical example for an Irvine 3 BR: Original price: $620k, Previous price: $590k, Current price: $555k. And that’s asking price, not sales price…So the price drops a real and make people sit on the sidelines. No wonder sales are down.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2010-11-22 06:25 PM

@Marc:

Yes… I said a portion of resales have been dropping. But new homes in Irvine sold fast and even when The Irvine Company increased prices during that time… they still sold.

Whatever the explanation is for that—it happened… despite the statistics that IR mentions.

Astute Observation by Renter1
2010-11-22 05:30 PM

Portola and Orchard? I always wonder who is crazy enough for pay $600k plus for a showbox in a location that is almost Riverside!

Astute Observation by Anonymous
2010-11-22 11:20 AM

O.C. unemployment drops to 9.1%

http://economy.ocregister.com/2010/11/19/o-c-unemployment-drops-to-9-1/44408/

“Orange County saw particular strength in professional and business services, which added 3,000 jobs in October. This sector, which includes accountants, lawyers, engineers and temp workers, increased by 9,600 in the past year.”

Astute Observation by matt138
2010-11-22 01:55 PM

any bullish news stands on the shoulders of unsustainable stimulus and artificially low interest rates, UNSUSTAINABLE being the key word.

You’re anonymous for a reason.

Astute Observation by Anonymous
2010-11-22 06:19 PM

Ha ha ha ha
Did you see any opinion there?  I didn’t
Just linking statistics.

Astute Observation by matt138
2010-11-22 11:21 AM

radio guy has good points.

i cringe when people bitch about the banksters and GS.

the source of the problem is cheap money and govt subsidy.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-11-22 06:17 PM

Yup!

Astute Observation by lisa
2010-11-22 11:41 AM

If you visit this community at 11:00 pm, the car parking all over both sides of the street, just like traffic jam in the pick hour of freeway 5.
This problem is hidden when you see the model home but after the community is built up, you will feel just live in the middle of freeway 5.

Astute Observation by awgee
2010-11-22 01:20 PM

OC Homes are 4th most costly in the nation.

http://lansner.ocregister.com/2010/11/22/o-c-homes-nations-4th-most-costly/88900/

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-11-22 02:46 PM

Why is that article using the median SFR price for OC as opposed to median house price?  I guess I can’t expect that much from the OC Register.

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2010-11-22 06:39 PM

If one city is overweight in condo’s compared to another, does it really make sense to use median price for all housing types? Using median SFR price compares apples to apples (well, as long as you’re willing to ignore the FAR smaller lots in The OC.)

Would you prefer that they used median price/sf? The OC would look even more ridiculously-overpriced in that light. But that stat wouldn’t fit very well with the view of the world that your broker has told you to believe, now would it?

-Darth

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-11-22 07:04 PM

Do you think they used median SFR in NY, SF, and Honolulu ?  No they didn’t, they used median price, same with LA.  Please for once try to accept the reality that I’m right.

Astute Observation by awgee
2010-11-23 07:02 AM

The knife catchers are getting a bit shrill.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-11-23 07:27 AM

Pathetic, I can’t understand why your blog is so popular and you can’t understand the truth.

Astute Observation by Will
2010-11-22 03:00 PM

In a strange way I like this house because the outside is as ugly as the inside.  There is no false advertising here…no effort made to disguise a lousy interior with at least a half-way attractive paint job.  No sirree, Bob, someone said, “We have to be sure the outside looks just as bad as the inside” or vice versa.

Astute Observation by alan
2010-11-22 03:42 PM

What always gets me is that here is a house selling for over 1/2 a million dollars and it’s got furnature from your local goodwill store.  This really brings home the consequences of being “house poor”.  There isn’t one decent item of furnature in any of the pictures.

Astute Observation by Bitter Renter
2010-11-22 05:10 PM

Well put, but I gotta wonder whether the exterior is really that pink color or whether that’s due to poor photography.  Seems like a color an Irvine HOA wouldn’t approve.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-11-22 05:58 PM

Year Built: : 1971
Asking Price $583,731

LOL!!!!!  Get real!

Astute Observation by Anonymous
2010-11-22 06:20 PM

PMI thinks both OC and Las Vegas are ‘high risk’

http://lansner.ocregister.com/2010/11/19/o-c-called-high-risk-housing-market/89084/

Astute Observation by Laura Louzader
2010-11-22 07:57 PM

How much would any of you guess it cost to re-clad the exterior of the house? Did it really cost $400K? Or 300K? I’m asking because I really have no idea how much a job like this would cost for a house this size.

Notice a second refrigerator parked right in front of the sliding glass doors in the dining room- dead giveaway of house overcrowding. I’m going to guess that two families were living in this place.

Still scratching my head wondering where all the HELOC money went, because it did not go into improving or furnishing this house.

Astute Observation by Vincenzo
2010-11-23 12:58 AM

Who would buy houses in Irvine if there were tunnels and high-speed trains to Riverside with $150,000 4-bedroom houses?

It’ll happen eventually in 15-25 years, but the Irvine Company will do everything to oppose these plans.

Astute Observation by Bitter Renter
2010-11-23 07:54 PM

I’m not sure that “candy coating turds” really requires more of a visual than the imagination already conjures up, IR.

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