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That’s a steep construction unemployment rate. wow. In a nutshell the person with the least amount of bills that makes the most money wins.
Conversely the unemployment rate for everyone else is much less than 10% especially those with higher educations, premiere degrees, buying in premium areas in the best neighborhoods.
The 38% unemployed in real estate related professions, they should have seen this coming. They could have made the decision 8, 9, 10 years ago to change professions and/or get a better more profitable education.
“The 38% unemployed in real estate related professions, they should have seen this coming. They could have made the decision 8, 9, 10 years ago to change professions and/or get a better more profitable education.”
Perhaps you can get out your crystal ball and tell us what industry is going to implode 10 years from now so those people can rethink their professional training.
Guess I should have had my crystal ball out 10 years ago when getting an architecture degree. I apparently also should have known then as a wet-behind-the-ears college student that we were in the midst of the most unprecedented building boom and subsequent bust in our nation’s history and that architects and contractors would be irrelevant 10 years later. I could then go back 5-6 more years in time and “rethink” my choice of educational path with the help of all sorts of other guidance counselors who themselves had a crystal ball to predict a building industry bust in 2008.
It was a sunk cost 6 years ago, and it’s a sunk cost now. If you need to move on, the faster you do the better. It will be a sunk cost next week as well.
Reality is that the unemployment rate for college educated workers barely went above 5% even at the peak of the recession. The general 10% figure doesn’t really show the lack of true impact to the upper and upper-middle class.
The standard post of very general fact followed up by outrageous conclusion from the general fact gets everyone up in arms every time. This time PR took it way out of reality by insinuating that despite an entire world being caught with its pants down, construction workers should have been smart enough to identify the end of the housing bubble. There is a reason the moniker is Planet Reality… because it ain’t reality on this planet.
I never said construction workers, I said real estate related and I was focusing on those with college degrees. However construction workers have now had 5 years to adapt.
In any event you solidified my point. There is very low unemployment at the higher end.
Glad I saw your comment. I have a friend who is thinking of either going into architecture or environmental design. She is considering Otis or Art Center ( with huge loans to be taken on). Just wondering if this is a wise decision right now and what, if any, jobs are out there in the Los Angeles area. Any advice would be fantastic, Dave, thanks!
Tell her to go into stripping. She can make $100k+/year and pay no taxes. By the time she is too old to strip, she will have been able to put away enough money to retire, assuming she puts away the savings due to not paying taxes.
I can’t speak for Dave, but I believe that by the time your friend graduates, she will be fine. There will always be a need for architects. Of course, it’s like lawyers… if she’s good at what she does, she will do fine. Finally, you can’t buy the satisfaction of doing a job you enjoy doing.
Bottom line is, if she wants to go into architecture mainly for the money, I would reconsider, otherwise, I believe she will be fine.
Or again she could strip.
She’s already 32, too old to start a stripping career…
Even during the good times, architectural jobs were hard to find. My friend (who went to school for architecture) eventually ended up in construction management instead.
You didn’t think there was going to be a real estate collapse in the 2001-2004 time frame? When did you figure it out? Even if it took until 2006 to figure out that’s still almost 6 years to make a change.
My crystal ball is screaming disaster for Las Vegas 10 years from now. Higher energy cost, water cost, and substitution in entertainment consumption behavior.
I did figure it out in plenty of time, that’s why I now own a profitable business in a completely different industry now in 2011. It’s easier for some construction industry folks to make training/skill shifts since it doesn’t take as much effort and time to become say, a mason, or even a real estate agent, as it does to become an architect or engineer. But to make decisions based on speculation of circumstances 10 years in the future isn’t easy to do.
I’m glad to hear that, well done recognizing it and making it happen.
Unfortunately, that crystal ball prediction is not going to come true. Vegas is already repositioning itself as it does every time the economy or gambling demand cycle changes. They are now catering to the 20-something crowd and establishing themselves to be the top spot for their adult entertainment. They are cultivating their market for the next 50 years. Despite a recession, increased competition and a decrease in gambling revenue, the casinos are recovering. Vegas will be just fine.
Your crystal ball must be more fine tuned than mine.
Let it ride, baby! Go all in on Vegas.
Those 20 something’s are going to save Las Vegas in the face of global warming, the 20 something green movement, higher energy cost, higher water cost, the disappearance of the blue haired crowd, and general information network and entertainment networked trends. Debauchery market needs to be in Vegas and nowhere else.
Disappearance of the blue haired crowd? You do realize that over the next 20 years, there is a giant mass of people retiring called the Baby Boomers and although their hair won’t be blue, they’ll be dropping plenty of coin in those slots (most of it unneeded Social Security payments).
The blue-hairs aren’t going anywhere:
Santa Clara County’s fastest-growing population is over 85
Thanks to Prop 13, they don’t have to.
PR,
When did you figure out that there was going to be a real estate collapse? Just curious… You’ve been here around a year, so you at least recognized it in 2010.
And why are you saying that it is still a disaster? I thought everything was sunshine and roses in Irvine with values that would only go up from here?
Why would anyone want to leave a real estate career now in your world?
who cares.
pr is full of himself and full of poop. he hasn’t provided one solid piece of analysis that i can recall.
if you read his posts, they are full of boasts of how great he is, how everyone else is dumb. when the truth is the opposite.
that’s the sign of insecurity and low intelligence.
people don’t need to boost themselves when they are smart, because other people will praise them. unlike pr who is roundly, and justifiably criticized by readers and his only fan is himself.
i wish people would stop responding to the troll(pr).
You don’t need a crystal ball. All you need is the arrogance to tell everybody else what they should have done. And a level of denial that thinks that if you know what is best for everone else, your thinking changes reality, ie. unemployment is less for those with higher educations, therefore unemployment is not a problem.
It’s a problem, but not much of a problem where higher educated people live.
The Problem is expanding into the “higher educated”
Irvine Prices per DQ:
92603 $695,000 -34.4%
92618 $550,000 -6.3%
92606 $524,000 +14.7%
92604 $514,750 -10.9%
92614 $514,000 -4.8%
92602 $481,000 -25.4%
92612 $440,000 -5.4%
By the look of those numbers, it’s apparent that the double dip has hit the beloved Irvine.
BTW, Homes sales are down YoY in every Irvine zip code.
Or show up on time, do good quality work and charge a fair price.
I have a friend this is an architect and has been putting in 12 hour days for as long as he can remember. There is less business out there, but he says a lot of requests are coming in because his competitors are dropping out or cutting corners.
I am trying to book contractors with a good reputation for a number of jobs and I am standing in line while they finish their current pipeline. I wait because the contractor that is available today may cost me more in the long run.
I am sure there are some good contractor feeling some pain, but the boom also pulled in a lot of less qualified types. Flushing out the industry is painful will result in some collateral damage.
This reminds me of the tech boom and bust. In 1999 if you could spell ‘keyboard’ you could get a tech job. Now, you need some chops to get a good hacker job.
Tech boom is back. Perks are up, hefty pay raises too.
Silicon Valley Hiring Perks: Meals, iPads and a Cubicle for Spot
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/26/technology/26recruit.html?_r=2&hp;=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1301114059-KdWK3UKapfz3AzHRZFycXQ
Google Battles to Keep Talent
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704804504575606871487743724.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_careerjournal
So using the numbers in the article, the “real” national unemployment rate is north of 14.6% (9.1% unemployed, still looking, 5.5% working PT and wanting FT). AND, this number (14.6%) doesn’t include the people who just stopped looking. When will the mainstream media just stop colluding with government and publish the real unemployment rate (U6) instead of the U2 number?
Architects are hurting terribly too… I myself haven’t worked on a building design project since early 2009 and have moved my priorities to running a business in another completely different industry. And my story is quite common for the A/E/C trades these days
Oh boy, that sucks….
Fortunately, the smartest people in any industry adapt to the current situation(s) and make decisions accordingly with their present knowledge. And my own buying power has certainly diminished temporarily with a career shift, but in time that will likely change for the better.
Exactly. I am happy you are adapting & surviving instead of asking for a bigger unemployment check.
Great news for our bubble dependent economy ... the Department of Labor reported today that the US economy painted 18,000 jobs in the month of June.
I’m sure the jackasses at the Fed & Treasury, White House, and Capital are all scratching their heads today. The old tricks ain’t working anymore.
This is a zombie economy.
Calculated Risk has a post on the subject.
June Employment Report: 18,000 Jobs, 9.2% Unemployment Rate
“The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only the early ‘80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).
This was very weak and well below expectations for payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate was higher than expected (both worse). A terrible report. I’ll have much more soon ...”
Those 18K jobs must have been the “smart” people Planet Reality always talks about. Probably no value added, just more Ponzi economy low hanging fruit pickers.
Don’t worry Lee, I sleep well at night knowing the greatest minds in this country are working 24/7 trying to figure this problem out!
130,000 jobs were added to the total due to the birth/death model
Don’t worry they’ll raise the debt ceiling and QE3 will arrive by September.
Irvine homes located in the first-class areas will continue to command a premium.
great song, I think of the ‘folks on the hill’ in Irvine - Turtle Ridge and Quail Hill. I guess to live there you have to learn how to ‘smile when you sign a huge mortgage’.
A working class hero is something to be in Irvine these days - much better to be a plumber/HVAC specialist than a Realtor or Architect. With all of the rapid building over the last 5 years there is an unending need for repairs - in what other business can work whatever hours you want and make $200/hour?
I’ve worked in Irvine since 1986 and there’s not many “plumbers” buying new, or even old homes in Irvine. Now, if you own a plumbing business and have other plumbers working for your profit, then you can afford to live in Nirvine.
to the realtor who wrote that listing in all caps, thus causing me the painful headache I am experiencing now, I AM GOING TO FIND YOU AND MAKE YOU SNUGGLE WITH MY KNIFE COLLECTION
Oh yeah, Suzanne wrote it
LOL! Thanks for the laugh.
Even with how much prices have fallen, they’re still way above construction costs. Demand is very high for OC homes. So correct me if I’m wrong, but as I see it the most significant impediment to new homes being built is that the housing bubble has left land owners with an inflated sense of how much their land is worth.
I get the feeling that if land owners had a crystal ball, and could see where home prices will be 10 years from now, we’d see much more new home construction going on.
That is exactly right. Unlike Riverside County where lots have a negative residual value, house prices in Orange County are still high enough for construction to go forward if landowners simply lowered their price to meet the market. Land value is still positive here in OC, just not as positive as landowners would like. Most of the construction action in OC and LA counties is occurring on small infill sites.
This is a pretty nice property. I almost rented it for $2700/ month about 2 years ago. At that time the owners had just moved out of state.Glad I didnt rent it as I would probably be looking for a new place to live now. I wonder how far this prcie will decline over the next 12 months… Id give em $350k…
Maybe I’m crazy, but by looking at these graphs aren’t we just seeing things, you know, sort of returning back to what they used to call “normal”???
I could bewrong, but with some of the shoddy construction work I’ve seen in some homes (kitchens & baths!!!) there were obviously a lot of people doing construction and contractor work in OC who were way out of their element and were being opportunistic during the housing run up.
Speaking of unemployment and homeownership, I found this arrangement reported by the LA Times rather special:
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-foreclosure-aid-20110708,0,1640816.story
Barack Obama saying: “Helping struggling borrowers avoid default is not only good for those borrowers, it is good for the economy,” he said.
You can’t build and develop the land forever and I don’t see how people in the construction industry can think their jobs will always be secure.
You can switch over to remodeling existing homes, but if I were in construction, I’d always have an exit plan in the back of my head.
Hmmm, wouldn’t this be a golden time for remodeling contractors as the homebuilders cannot keep their people busy?
Don’t remodeling contractors usually get paid with HELOC money?
Yes, and since there’s less HELOC loans available, buyers have to either buy pre-renovated houses or self-finance the remodels after purchase.
So that limits the pool of eligible buyers or houses, depending on how you look at it.
Also, during the bubble one could get an inflated appraisal to get cash back from the seller in order to finance the remodel after purchase.
Then the fraudulent sale becomes the next comp.
Article in July 4th Bloomberg Businessweek about Tuscaloosa, Ala. having a shortage of construction workers after Alababama’s governor signed a 72 page anti illegal immigration bill on June 9th. If I were an unemployed or underemployed legal status construction worker, I’d go find an online copy of the Tuscaloosa yellow pages and give all the construction companies a call and see if they were hiring.