The Short Sale Gambit

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by cara
2009-08-31 06:02 AM

“If the mortgage is covered by private mortgage insurance (PMI), the lender actually makes more money by foreclosing than by accepting the short sale. If they foreclose, the shortfall at the auction is covered by the PMI company. If they accept a short sale, PMI does not pay out”

Are you sure about your facts there? Through the novahousingblog commentators someone claimed that in the short sale they were buying, the loan had private mortgage insurance, and that while the bank accepted the short sale, the MI came back to the seller and requested they sign a promissory note for some substantial fraction (but not all) of the shortfall in order for the MI to approve the sale. The seller agreed to sign the note and the short went forward.

In your scenario, I’m pretty sure the MI would have a case to not pay the full amount of the claim if they can get access to those bids for higher amounts. Sure it will end up in court, or at least in the hands of lawyers threatening court, but still, it’s not clear the bank will get its insurance money.

Astute Observation by Working in OC
2009-08-31 08:31 AM

That’s a good question regarding what a bank’s responsibility might be in helping to mitigate a loss on a PMI policy.

At the end of the day I think that it would come down to any specific wording in the agreement, and who exactly bought and paid for the PMI. 

If the homeowner bought the PMI then the bank is a nominally connected 3rd party - if the bank paid for the policy, then that might be different.

At the end of the day - in court - if a PMI company complains that a bank did not help them mitigate their loss a possible defense was, ‘We were never required to help you out’ and ‘You (the PMI company) could have bought the mortgage for the amount owing - but chose not to.’

Interesting questions all.  Any lawyers or people with first hand experience want to weigh-in?

Astute Observation by cara
2009-08-31 10:21 AM

True it should somehow factor in who was paying for the MI and what the agreement was. I think I lower poster has a good point, that the MI’s doing this on a per-lender basis rather than a per-loan basis might be more effective.

However, the MI could also just refuse to pay out the full insurance amount if they felt either the short sale went for too far undermarket or the foreclosure was not the least expensive option. In which case the bank would have to sue them to get more than the MI companies determined amount. If MI works the same as car insurance or health insurance, I’d say it’s best for the banks to just take what they can get, in order to maintain getting paid back at all, and to continue doing business.
(like when BCBS tells the ER, oh we only allocate $40 for X-rays, not $250, and the ER sends a “bill” to the patient that says, “paid in full.”)

Modguy, lawyerliz? Any experts want to weigh in? I miss Tanta.

Astute Observation by Alan
2009-08-31 08:41 AM

I’m missing some understanding here too - if flippers are buying foreclosed properties at auction, why are the banks holding so many repossessed properties? It seems to me that when you profile a foreclosed house being offered by a bank, the sales price is at least right now considerably above the price at which the bank took it back. Why didn’t a speculator take it at the foreclosure auction rather than the bank?

Isn’t it that flippers are buying properties from the bank, and then reselling?

Astute Observation by Chris
2009-08-31 09:15 AM

Not all foreclosed buyers are flippers. However, auction can be a pain in the rear end for a lot of people who probably don’t have time to do their DDs.

“why are the banks holding so many repossessed properties?”

Because they can thanks to Mark-to-Fantasy rule set by the currently lovely govt. You can repo the property at $400k and mark it at $800k and we’re all happily dancing to it.

GAAP my ass.

Astute Observation by winstongator
2009-08-31 07:00 AM

If that is the case, that investors are profiting at the hands of MI’s, why don’t the MI’s bid on the properties at auction and keep the profit for themselves?

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/foreclosure-mortgage-insurer-may-help.aspx

I wonder if the United Guaranty unit of AIG had enough reserves or if the general AIG bailout money has gone to them.

I don’t feel that bad for the MI’s.  They took loans that were bad.  They should have had access to as much underwriting info as the issuing bank, and they should have had the ability to either charge a higher premium, or refuse to insure.

There are few enough MI’s that they have a large volume of potential short-sale vs. foreclosures with each lender.  Litigating loans one-by-one seems to be a major bad road to go down.  MI’s as a whole should know who’s refusing short-sales and who’s not, and they should cut off those lenders from new MI issuance.

Astute Observation by NewportSkipper
2009-08-31 08:43 AM

“They should have had access to as much underwriting info as the issuing bank, and they should have had the ability to either charge a higher premium, or refuse to insure.”

They have all three.

Astute Observation by Lucky Victim
2009-08-31 07:36 AM

Golf buddy bought a condo within the last two months.  The condo was a shortsale and yet he bidded higher than the shortsale amount to win.  He was sure he was the highest bidder but he wasn’t.  The only way he won was the other guy backed out after getting laid off during the 3 month wait on shortsale answer. 

I didn’t see him for awhile so I had no idea he bought a condo.  I did hear him mention he was shopping around but I had no idea about this website then.  He moved out of renting a 1 bedroom @ $1400 a month to buying a condo and using his savings and paying $2400 a month with HOA dues included.  He is married but they are not rich and he was recently laid off due to economy although he did get another job.  I would have told him about this website if I had known he was shopping around sigh.

He was telling me how happy he was that he bought a place and I kept my mouth shut and just congratulated him.  I felt bad for him though.

Astute Observation by cara
2009-08-31 08:04 AM

short sale process taking longer than most people can last at their jobs. Definitely a serious issue. If the likelihood of the buyer staying solvent drops to below 75%, at what point does that need to get calculated in to the net present value calculations for SS versus foreclosure?

Hmm, me thinks buyers just giving up is still the larger problem. On the other hand, he short we’re trying to buy (in Northern Virgina) had a previous contract fall out when that buyer lost her job. So, 1 example is an anecdote, 2 is a coincidence, 3 is a trend, 4 is data?

Astute Observation by IrvineRealtor
2009-08-31 08:00 AM

Interesting premise.

I tried looking up some of the closing info from the MLS to verify…

-So far through this year, in Irvine, there have been 1168 closed sales reported.

-Of that set, 194 have been short sales. That is about 17% of total sales. Average DOM for this set is 129 days. Average OLP/SP for these over the course of the year has been 92.66%, or a discount of 7% of the original list price. Biggest drop was a purchase for 33% off on Apricot on 8/11.

-Of the 194 short sales, 46 have closed over their list price. Average DOM is 70 days. Average OLP/SP among that set has been 105.34% and the maximum overbid was 129% of list price (twice, most recently on Teak Bridge on 8/19).

It is apparent that the short sale game is not getting any clearer for anyone. Brokers have to spend a great deal of time educating buyers and sellers alike, and often the brokers themselves are confused. It’s hard enough to get a buyer and seller to agree on a price, but when you add in a lender (or several lenders) and more, the complexity escalates exponentially.

Thank you,
-IR2

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2009-08-31 06:59 PM

Scott,

Excellent info! I don’t usually expect this kind of precision and candor from realtors. I hope that more guys like you can help to turn the industry around. I also wish that more at the OC Reg would follow the example of you and Larry and post good, hard data like this.

Thanks again for the good data.

-Darth

Astute Observation by NewportSkipper
2009-08-31 08:40 AM

While your facts may or may not be correct overall, MI loans are infinitesimal in Orange County, as the prior loan limit was $417k.

Astute Observation by IrvineNeighbor
2009-08-31 10:07 AM

My loan was a jumbo when we bought our house in the 90’s and we had MI.  MI was required because we weren’t putting 20% down, it wasn’t really a factor of the purchase price.  The mortgage was sold and it’s not clear who remained the beneficiary on our original MI or if other MI was then rolled on top to reduce the default risk to investors.

  The mortgage insurance was visible in our loan as a PMI but it can also be purchased by the bank, or the consolidator that rolls the loan into a MBS.  In this case, the interest rate is higher due to the high LTV risk and either the investor takes this risk to get additional return or passes it to the mortgage insurer but gets a lower nominal return after the premium is deducted.

  The can be a lot of hands grabbing a piece of the monthly P&I from a single house.  I think the short sale moral is - These arrangements work when they work but can get very messy when they don’t and everyone tries to avoid getting caught in the subsequent game of musical chairs.

Astute Observation by CapitalismWorks
2009-08-31 03:03 PM

Wrong.

MI through private insurers is available on any sized loan.

Astute Observation by Craig
2009-08-31 10:20 AM

Over half a million for a nice condo doesn’t seem “very low” to me—but it does seem like asking prices are starting to drop closer to the realistic range.

Astute Observation by Barren_Irvine
2009-08-31 11:20 AM

Didn’t some one in this forum say $250/sq ft is the lowest Irvine will go.  Hum, the pundits are eating their own words I guess.

Astute Observation by Geotpf
2009-08-31 01:37 PM

It only counts if it actually sells for that little.  The chances of it doing so are extremely small.

Astute Observation by Barren_Irvine
2009-08-31 04:15 PM

I will be monitoring this property from now on and see when and at what price it sells.  As a matter of fact from now on I will monitor all properties profiled here to see what ends up happening.

Astute Observation by DAve
2009-08-31 10:20 AM

ammenities=

*Pray the value doesn’t drop another 20% in the first two years you enjoy the “pride of ownership”**

Astute Observation by Barren_Irvine
2009-08-31 11:11 AM

In the same neighborhood, look at this WTF price;  $700+ /sq ft.  I am sure he will find a buyer because the school district is SO GOOD!!!

Astute Observation by Barren_Irvine
2009-08-31 11:12 AM

Sorry here is the link…

WFT Price $700/sq ft.

Astute Observation by mike
2009-08-31 11:27 AM

Why does Redfin list it as ashort sale. Me thinks the list price is wrong.

Astute Observation by cara
2009-08-31 11:33 AM

Maybe Redfin is now listing everything in Irvine as presumed short sales, because really, what homeowner didn’t HELOC themselves to oblivion? (aside from PropertyOwner) They could make it the new default setting.

Astute Observation by Property Owner
2009-08-31 02:13 PM

Hi cara,

I see that I am remembered still.  It was interesting to see the cash outs and HELOC buying frenzy all around me with neighbors pulling up in new BMW’s and Benz’s.  It took a little willpower to not go buy those jet ski’s I wanted.  smile
In the end it feels good to have been conservative with my finances.  Now that I have closed escrow, looking at my account makes me smile and know I did the right thing. 
I am just waiting to dump that money into another house shortly.  Short sales suck!  I am in escrow on one and waiting for the bank to respond.  Unfortunately the second on that house is with BofA which I heard is a monster.

Astute Observation by cara
2009-09-01 05:35 AM

Hey good company! I’m in a short sale contract where BofA is the seller’s bank too! On “my” other blog another poster said it took BofA 2 months after they got the appraisal to come back with an actual number that they’d agree to, but it was within spitting distance of the contract, so it should close in a total of 4 months from date of contract, and he/she claims two other BofA SS townhouses nearby both closed within 4 months of escrow, so I have high hopes. Low expectations, but high hopes.

Astute Observation by badcandy
2009-08-31 11:42 AM

That listing is odd.  The price moved around in strange ways…to be listed at 1.3M as a short sale after being listed at 600k *and* 800k in a SIX WEEK PERIOD?

Could be some “typing in the dark” problem.  Ya never know.  wink  1-3 is “close” to 4-6 or 7-9 if you also remove a zero from the end.  Or maybe they have so many properties that they just had a mental meltdown and input the wrong numbers along with that great description.  Northwoods?  Backyark?  That’s working for your 3%.  *shakes fist*

Astute Observation by Barren_Irvine
2009-08-31 11:57 AM

You are probably right.  The pictures that are associated with a 1.3 mil home is just breath taking.  I think the Realtor made a HONEST mistake…

Astute Observation by WishUponAStar
2009-08-31 11:39 AM

I wanted to see this property, but apparently you can only see it if you make an offer.  I decided to pass.

Astute Observation by cara
2009-08-31 12:38 PM

What? How is that enforceable? A time machine?

Astute Observation by phil
2009-08-31 02:20 PM

Offer $1.

Astute Observation by Chris
2009-08-31 09:05 PM

Get an agent to offer $1 above the asking.

I’m sure they’ll counter….ignore the counter-offer or tell them you’re no longer interested after seeing the house if you don’t want the house.

It’s not like you have to put in a deposit or something to see the damn house grin

Astute Observation by tlc8386
2009-08-31 12:19 PM

The problem with the heloc absuse is that it’s not just housing nor is it just wall street and the bankers. It’s everyone who has power to control money and who gets that money.

I stumbled upon this written by a doctor who is very angry over health care reform. I suggest everyone open their minds to what is the true problem in this country and that is Greed and corruption.

http://blogs.webmd.com/mad-about-medicine/2007/08/ceo-compensation-who-said-healthcare-is.html

Lack of regulation in all these areas have created this mess of fraud. I always say “Follow the Money”

My anger over all of this has not even budged, those that took money without intention of paying it back is as if they robbed their bank. Those that stole from patients with insurance and not paying their claims is the same—-stealing—the bankers the same—ect. ect.

Our country needs to wake up to all of this CRIME.

Astute Observation by tlc8386
2009-08-31 12:21 PM

http://tinyurl.com/m4uk2d

Astute Observation by Freetrader
2009-08-31 09:54 PM

Obviously, money is the problem.  Money = Crime.  Why don’t we just outlaw money then?

Astute Observation by tlc8386
2009-09-01 11:14 AM

Money does not equal crime. Business without any regulation and laws do because someone will always find a way to take more which equals Greed.

14 billion dollars in 5 years is what 23 Ceo’s paid themselves from our insurance money.

What did our doctors make, what insurance claims were paid?

Mortgage bankers paid themselves billions as well.

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2009-08-31 07:03 PM

The listing says it’s a condo. A 4/4 condo? What’s up with that? Is there a shared wall somewhere? There doesn’t appear to be from the pics and map.

I smell some hidden info here.

-Darth

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2009-08-31 07:27 PM

IR: “Do very low short sale prices still have shock value? If too many sellers go this route, the shock wears off, and expectation of lower future prices becomes the norm.”

I find this dynamic to be extremely ironic. The shadow inventory, the gov’t rescue, the long foreclosure process, all of it has been a desperate attempt to engineer this banker’s and politician’s dream of an orderly, steady, and gradual decline in the housing market. Quite ironically, however, the same greedy and desperate homeowners and RE industry workers that played the other half of the coin that got us here are foiling the banker/politician’s orderly slowdown.

-Darth

Astute Observation by diogenes jr
2009-08-31 08:19 PM

A bit off topic, but just a follow up to my recent comment about the Stockholm Syndrome:

A) I trust you know I was kidding, or perhaps “using hyperbole to make a point” is the better way to phrase it.  We’re all a little shell shocked by now given all the madness that has occurred in the past 3 to 5 years.  Kudos for seeing the humor/sigh of resignation/modicum of truth in my post.

B) Thanks for the kind reference to an ‘astute observer.’  I haven’t been called astute in ages tongue rolleye

C) I was going on memory.  I was vaguely recalling that the SS was based on a bank robbery gone bad in Sweden in which the hostages were held for about a week.  After the robbers were captured the captives refused to testify against them in court and I think one of the female captives actually married one of the perps while he was in prison.  Evidently it is not that uncommon a reaction to extreme duress and perhaps can be seen just now in the very sad story of the girl in Antioch who was kidnapped when she was 11.  Apparently she never tried to escape. 

Anyway, thanks for your very measured, intelligent reply to a post I thought might have been a little harsh shortly after I pressed ‘send.’ I’m glad you didn’t see it that way.  I saw my shrink today and related the whole thing and he assured me you’re NOT suffering from SS. 

D jr

Astute Observation by Rockon
2009-09-01 03:28 AM

Hi…
I decided to pass. The problem with the heloc absuse is that it’s not just housing nor is it just wall street and the bankers. It’s everyone who has power to control money and who gets that money.

Astute Observation by HomeTelos LEO
2009-09-01 05:26 AM

LEO – Loan Exit Option
Your Short Sale Solution

There is a new kind of short sale that has become available recently from HomeTelos for lenders and homeowners known as the LEO (Loan Exit Option) program.  The LEO program is your short sale solution that eliminates many of the problems associated with traditional short sales and cuts response and close time on offers from many months to just days.  Offers can be accepted immediately because HomeTelos works with the local agent, lender and homeowner to come to an agreement that is acceptable to all parties before the property enters the market.  This results in a pre-approved listing price and no more delays in obtaining decisions from the lender on offers.  Offers are submitted electronically and can be accepted immediately.

The LEO program is nearly identical to a traditional home sale in terms of efficiency. Even better, the transaction is handled completely by the experienced and knowledgeable staff at HomeTelos and the specially trained real estate agents we enlist. To learn more or to see if you qualify for our program, please visit our website at www.HomeTelos.com or contact us at Sales@HomeTelos.com or by telephone at 888.99.TELOS.

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