Irvine Housing Blog

Will it get back to 2001, 2002, or 2003 pricing?
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what is the source for this data?  HPI?  Case-Shiller?

Foreclosure investors as white knights?

http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2007/10/06/foreclosure-investors-as-white-knights/

Greenspan says U.S. economic growth slowing

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2007/10/07/greenspan_says_us_economic_growth_slowing/

I wonder what happened in 2000?

hmmmmm…

there’s a big gap between 2003 and 2004.. i think we’re somewhere at 2004 prices now.  to go down to 2003 prices, a recession may need to happen.. i hope it does go down though..

Is there a 20 year graph?  Would be interesting to see the rise & fall from the last boom.

the median home price will bottom at 3.5 times median income like it does after every Orange County housing boom (and during the recession that we are about to experience over the next 3 years, median income will also drop).

The hammer drops
America’s houses are being repossessed at a record rate. What comes next?

http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9905451

Thoughts anyone re: mortgage forgiveness debt relief?

H.R. 3648
Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act Of 2007
http://waysandmeans.house.gov/media/pdf/110/Markup Summary4.pdf

The good, bad and ugly
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071006/A_BIZ/710060313

Klor, a tax expert and enrolled agent the past 14 years in Stockton, fielded a call from a middle-aged woman who lives in a home she paid about $475,000 for and soon bought three more homes as investments with mortgages of at least $350,000 each.

She told Klor she already had lost two of the homes and the third investment home was in the process of being foreclosed. She felt confident she had enough income to be able to keep her primary residence, although she has no savings.

“She is losing sleep over this. Potentially, she could be on the hook for taxes of over $300,000 in income in a single year,” Klor said, noting the income is derived from the forgiveness of debt.

“She will have some huge income exposures because of the three foreclosures. She should contact her tax adviser to get some tax relief. There is a legal way to reduce the tax if you meet the IRS rules for being insolvent,” he said. “This is an example of someone who got greedy and now it is coming back to haunt her.”

Give up on graphs and math ... just put a coin in and pull the lever ...

Home sales plummet 54 percent

http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071005/BUSINESS04/710050351/1003/business

Despite home prices that are in some instances the lowest in years and a vast inventory, many buyers still seem to be trying to time the market, which is “more about being lucky as being good,” said Emily DiSimone, president of the California Desert Association of Realtors.

I disagree.  That big gap is funky loans.  In reality, 2003 would have been the real peak of the cycle if not for the creative loans.

Given such, we’ll probably see ‘98, ‘99 inflation adjusted prices particularly because of the overshoot back to the downside.

The second big question will be now that the easy RE money is gone, how much with Irvine and OC communities income drop.

Oh, if you’re freaking and thinking I’m wearing a tinfoil hat, remember ‘98 inflation adjusted price is 2001 nominal pricing.

I agree with you almost 100%. The only thing that I think is off is the 2001 price tag part. With the dollar falling and the very real possibility of high inflation we may see more like a 2003 price tag which would equate to 1998 pricing in real terms. Unless the Fed reverses course, I think this is what is going to happen.

I wonder which will be first: dollar collapse or stock market crash. Either one will cause the other right now.

...many buyers still seem to be trying to time the market, which is “more about being lucky as being good,” said Emily DiSimone, president of the California Desert Association of Realtors.

LOL! Yeah, buyers are fools for not buying right now…

Gotta disagree with you Kirk. I don’t see us stalling out at 2003 prices unless we get wage inflation, which I certainly don’t see happening with a lot of high paying finance and real estate jobs going bye bye.

Just a gut feeling is that we will seriously overshoot the trendline on the way back down. 2001 prices are now my high range of price drops.

Sign of the times: Auction in Sherman Oaks
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/10/sign-of-the-tim.html

The pressure’s on
With the market cooling, so-so agents face the scrutiny—wrath, even—of disgruntled clients. The state is bracing for a rise in complaints.

http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-re-perform7oct07,0,4468335.story?page=1&coll=la-home-center

You have a good point about wage inflation. I do expect stagflation. But, the other question is when do we hit bottom? The further out the bottom is, the more inflation has eroded the dollar here at home. I would love 2001 “sticker” prices, but I just don’t see it happening. I say 2003 sticker prices in 2009. Of course, I actually ran numbers at one time, but forgot what they came out to be, so I’m just saying this off the cuff. We shall see.

Eroded because of modest wage inflation I might add.

California Tightens Rules For Mortgage Lenders

http://www.kcra.com/news/14282211/detail.html?rss=sac&psp=news

SACRAMENTO, Calif.—Mortgage companies will have to do a better job warning prospective California home buyers about the kind of risky loans that have led to tens of thousands of defaults and foreclosures, under a bill signed Friday by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The law applies federal lending guidelines to more than 4,800 state-licensed financial institutions, mortgage brokers and real estate agents, including lenders such as San Francisco-based Bank of the West, Calabasas-based Countrywide Financial Corp. and Orange-based Ameriquest Mortgage Co.

William Lyon Homes Reports New Home Orders, Closings and Backlog

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20071005005615&newsLang=en

New home orders for the three months ended September 30, 2007 were 337, a decrease of 33% as compared to 501 for the three months ended September 30, 2006.
...
The Company’s cancellation rate for the three months ended September 30, 2007 was 42%, compared to 39% for the three months ended September 30, 2006.

Re: out usual debate - is the grass greener in Seattle?

Let the buyer rejoice: Home sales, prices fall
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2003929200_homesales06.html

Schenfreude alert - new TV show “Please Buy My House” on TLC

Please Buy My House
http://television.aol.com/show/please-buy-my-house/1329217/main

Did you watch Please Buy My House on TLC?
http://activerain.com/blogsview/228602/Did-you-watch-Please

If you missed it it’s going to rerun at the following times (see link below)

Show schedule
http://tlc.discovery.com/tv-schedules/special.html?paid=2.14903.55792.0.0

Schenfreude alert - new “Please Buy My House” show on TLC
Desperate house selling times call for desperate measures…

If you missed it it’s going to rerun at the following times (see link below)
Show schedule
http://tlc.discovery.com/tv-schedules/special.html?paid=2.14903.55792.0.0

Did you watch Please Buy My House on TLC?
http://activerain.com/blogsview/228602/Did-you-watch-Please

Please Buy My House
http://television.aol.com/show/please-buy-my-house/1329217/main

Sorry, posted in the wrong spot - that was supposed to go with the “Please, Buy My House!” topic

getbocero