IHB News 12-12-2009

I hope you are enjoying your weekend. Today’s featured property is a Northpark Condo.

84 NEW SEASON Irvine, CA 92602 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 84 NEW SEASON Irvine, CA 92602
Resale Home Price …… $399,900



I’d have to be some kind of natural born fool
To want to pass that way again
But I could feel it, yes sir
Walking on a country road
Walk on down, walk on down, walk on down
Walk on down, walk on down a country road
Country road
You can feel it, you can feel it,
You can feel it too on a country road

Country Road — James Taylor

IHB News

On December 4, 2009, we closed the IHB forums. The IHB forums were established to promote discussion of real estate
related topics. As the forums grew beyond real estate, it became a
great deal of work, and conditions developed in the forums that were
incompatible with having real estate related forums hosted by Ideal
Home Brokers. After exploring all options for changing the forums to a
form compatible with our basic mission (including discussions with
moderators and other interested parties), it was decided that closing
them down was preferable to continuing in a format which was draining
our resources and providing little recovery. If there had been an
alternative that served our interests as well as the interests of the
community at large, we would have pursued it. We may open the forums
again in the future when we are certain we can focus the content and
the conversation on real estate related matters; this will not happen
soon. We apologize to those who are upset over the loss of the forums.

Housing Bubble News from Patrick.net

fb U.S. Foreclosures to Reach Record 3.9 Million in 2009 (bloomberg.com)
fb California notices of default hit record (financemymoney.com)
fb Millions More At-Risk of Default (mhanson.com)
fb Los Angeles area houses lose $60.8 billion in value through November (latimesblogs.latimes.com)
fb The MLS Is Corrupt (patrick.net)
fb House of Subprime Lender Targeted by Violent Robbers (ktla.com)
fb Outlook for 2010: prices have further to fall (money.cnn.com)
fb U.S. Homedebtors Lost $5.9 Trillion Since 2006 Peak (bloomberg.com)
fb Default, Then Rent And Live Far Better (online.wsj.com)
fb CA public pension real estate investments down 49% in year (lansner.freedomblogging.com)
fb How underwater is California? (doctorhousingbubble.com)
fb Decline in house values continues despite spin (sfgate.com)
The Real Reason Mortgage Modifications Fail (seekingalpha.com)
Who Holds the Elusive Option ARMs? (financemymoney.com)
Non Performing Loans: Lessons from Japan (seekingalpha.com)
Pricewaterhouse Coopers report on housing (PDF – patrick.net)
Don’t Buy a House Yet (realestate.yahoo.com)
Walking away makes sense (sfgate.com)
Why Treasury Needs a Plan B for Mortgages (nytimes.com)
Geithner: “none … would have survived” (blogs.reuters.com)
Why Didn’t Canada’s Housing Market Go Bust? (clevelandfed.org)
Canada has no mortgage interest deduction (theglobeandmail.com)
Americans are Addicted to Nonsense (truthdig.com)

Housing Bubble News

US Government’s New Housing Bubble

Seeking Alpha (blog)Jeff Nielson‎12 hours ago‎

As readers here have heard regularly, it is absolutely certain that there will be another down-leg for the US housing market, beginning no later than spring

Federal Housing Adminstration should stiffen loan rules for home buyers

Kansas City Star‎Dec 8, 2009‎

In the aftermath of the housing bubble, the Federal Housing Administration is doing more to help prop up the market. But there are signs the FHA is

Email Exchange With The Cleveland Fed On US Inflation Expectations

The Market Oracle‎Dec 8, 2009‎

Did not the Fed completely ignore a housing bubble? In fact, isn’t it true the Fed could not see a housing bubble that 100 housing blogs could see? 11.


84 NEW SEASON Irvine, CA 92602 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 84 NEW SEASON Irvine, CA 92602

Resale Home Price … $399,900

Income Requirement ……. $82,427
Downpayment Needed … $13,997
3.5% Down FHA Financing

Home Purchase Price … $489,000
Home Purchase Date …. 10/10/2005

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(113,094)
Percent Change ………. -18.2%
Annual Appreciation … -4.7%

Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 4.96%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $2,062
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $2,840
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $2,140

Property Details for 84 NEW SEASON Irvine, CA 92602

Beds 2
Baths 2 full 1 part baths
Size 1,187 sq ft
($337 / sq ft)
Lot Size n/a
Year Built 2005
Days on Market 17
Listing Updated 12/2/2009
MLS Number S597627
Property Type Condominium, Residential
Community Northwood
Tract Tamr


ALL CAPS… I find it painful to read.


The original purchase was part of a complex transaction with multiple parcels, but apparently, not much equity was involved in the deal. On 8/21/2006, the owner refinaced with a $460,000 first mortgage and a $42,000 second, so it must have appraised at over $500,000 at one time. The six-digit loss we are all used to will be absorbed by the lender. The buyer will survive to speculate again someday — if lenders will give him the money.

20 thoughts on “IHB News 12-12-2009

  1. scott

    I see these daily but it is still worth remembering that affordability in the current rate environment is 5x your income level which is just astounding everytime I think of that. Now reasonable people may disagree with the speed with which rates will get back closer to historical levels, but rise they inevitably will. I’m guessing properties like today will be sold near their current asking prices but what these people need to be shown is how much house they could have afforded if the 30 yr was say 6 or 7 or 8% & that is what is going to happen to the value of this house. We should also show that calc to anyone who is screaming ‘buy now this this the bottom’

    1. OC Progressive

      This is a great point. A “buyer” getting in now with an 8K first time home buyer tax credit with 3.5% down, there is no skin in the game. When interest rates rise, the home price drops, and you have one more person with negative equity, who loses money when they sell,and is likely to default and puts further downward pressure on prices.

      1. newbie2008

        No Problem. The buyer will have $12,000 in the game (3.5% down and 1.5% FHA lending fee less $8000 OBHO Ponzi money).

        The REA,banker/loan officer have received their commissions. The FHA will repackage the loan and make the investor whole upon default. The banks will get another round of service fees to FC. Only problem is the taxpayer will need to foot the bill for each step. The buyer can stay 1 to 1.5 years without paying, so buyer is also made whole (22,400 = 14 month x $1600/M) makes a small profit over renting and claim to be a victim upon FC.

    2. IrvineRenter

      “how much house they could have afforded if the 30 yr was say 6 or 7 or 8% & that is what is going to happen to the value of this house. We should also show that calc to anyone who is screaming ‘buy now this this the bottom”

      We put all this information in our Fundamental Value Reports. People do deserve to know what could happen (and probably will).

  2. Anonymous

    IHB = Irvine Housing Blog, or Ideal Home Brokers?

    KFC = Kentucky Fried Chicken, or Kitchen Fresh Chicken?


  3. picflight

    $399,900 for a place this size? This is crazy! This place is worth no more than $151K, I don’t care where it is located unless 100 feet from the ocean.

    1. mike23w

      $150k for a 1200 sqft property in 92602?
      That’s $125/sqft. Currently it’s $320/sqft.

      So you expect a 61% drop in price/sqft from today’s prices which have already dropped in the last 2-3 years.

      Good luck waiting for that to happen.

      1. not waiting to happen

        Picflight is not waiting for price to drop to $151k because somehow I think he does not live in OC/LA area. That’s how much something like this should go for in Corona, though.

    2. mike23w

      I remember him now.

      He goes around randomly picking numbers out of his ass saying every property should be $10,000.

      I’m sorry I spent two posts replying to him.
      I won’t do it again.

      1. picflight

        Hello Mike!

        Glad you remember me now.

        This is a house you are trying to put a value on, don’t take it too personally. I do live in the area and I think it is foolish to pay $320/ft for a cramped up place.

        not waiting to happen,
        I do want price to drop, if I did, will it drop? I am valuing it for you.

  4. Some Blogs Are More Equal Than Others...

    Great selection for today’s post Larry, thank you. But regarding your explanation for closing the forums, the wording almost sounds like something from ‘Animal Farm’. Weren’t the forums part of the Irvine Housing Blog, rather than part of what I had thought was a separate company owned by you and Shevy called Ideal Home Brokers? Has the Irvine Housing Blog become Ideal Home Brokers and the blog is now a component of the business owned and run by you and Shevy (that being Ideal Home Brokers)? I’m not criticizing you Larry, I’m simply confused and don’t understand clearly what the blog is at this point. Perhaps you could explain in a future post.

  5. AVRenter

    I certainly wouldn’t presume to know the admin behind the forums but it is unfortunate to lose the RE related forums (RE-Irvine, RE-OC, Econ). It’s understandable to drop the off-topic forums and discussions of one’s puppy and related pics, but the original on-topic areas for discussion, too?

    I won’t second guess the behind-the-scenes decisions, it’s just very unfortunate to lose a wealth of RE related info.

    1. Bitter Renter

      Agree 100%. FWIW, the existing information in the forums hasn’t been lost yet — you can still get to them via http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums . Who knows how long it’ll be before the new IHB decides the existence of that information isn’t compatible with their business plan, though…

  6. Bitter Renter

    It also would have been nice if the decision to close the forums had been announced on the blog ahead of time, rather than 8 days after the fact. Among other things, this would have given the community a chance to discuss potential sites to relocate discussions to.

    1. Bitter Renter

      FYI for those who are interested, I did some more digging, and I see that the forum regulars did manage to get a new forum site going:


      Kind of unfortunate that it’s just a bare Irvine-themed discussion board not tied to a real estate site, meaning it’ll be difficult for the site to expand much beyond the core of former IHB forum folks, but I’m glad the community isn’t totally out on the street.

  7. Will

    I consider this progress of a sort. It seems like not that long ago you could not find a two bedroom place in Irvine for less than $500K. I kept saying, “Two bedrooms cost more than $500K? That is outrageous!” Now we’re down to $399K. I wonder how much lower it will go.

  8. k.o.

    Seriously, Larry you’ve lost all credibility. As someone who read this blog for the last couple of years I knew that when you and Shevy started your company there’d be changes. I just didn’t think that you’d be completely shady and like an NAR hack. Very disappointed in you.

  9. Shadax

    I really liked the forums. I’m sad to see them go. But forums are hardly profitable, especially when non IHB affiliated agents were far more active when it came to helping potential clients. That part never made much sense to me. The wealth of information the forums offered helped to get a lot of people interested in and excited about real estate.

Comments are closed.