Pretending
How many times must we tell the tale?
How many times must we fall?
Living in lost memory
You just recalled
Working on the sound of the band
Trying to get the music right
Two go out working
Three stay home at night
Thats when she said she was pretending
Like she knew the plan
Thats when I knew she was pretending
Pretending to understand
Pretending, pretending
Pretending, pretending
Pretending -- Eric Clapton
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Human nature is to spend everything you make. It takes discipline to save money and accumulate wealth, and most people do not have it. When house prices were rising, every homeowner suddenly faced with a dramatic increase in their yearly "income," if they drank the kool aid and learned to view appreciation as income. Many, many people did what human nature would compel them to do -- they took this free money and spent it. Given the pressures in Orange County to look and act rich, the temptation of all this "unliberated equity" was too much for many to resist. Pretending to be making a great deal of money and being rich became a way of life to many in Irvine. It went on for so long, it became part of their identity. These people actually believed they were rich. The influx of free money through appreciation was considered an entitlement for homeowners; something that would go on forever.
Some have argued rampant equity extraction was not widespread, and it will not be the cause of many foreclosures. As an observer of human nature, I would argue this was very widespread; it had to be. The chart above illustrates the dramatic increase in mortgage equity extraction. It serves as a testament to the foolishness of many homeowners. Your average person cannot stay out of credit card debt, what would lead someone to believe they would treat mortgage debt any differently, particularly when they believed their house would go up in value and pay for it?
Often times the lessons we learn in youth stay with us for a lifetime. When these are good lessons, they serve us well for our lives; when they are bad lessons... I did not pay much attention to mortgage matters in my household growing up, but I know my parents never overextended themselves to buy a house, and they never took out equity to spend on things. In fact, it would have never even occurred to them to do so. Perhaps it is my Midwestern upbringing, or perhaps it is just not growing up in a bubble market where such things are possible, but when I see the financial behavior of people during the bubble, I am simply astonished.
Perhaps the big picture is easier to grasp when you see specific examples of this phenomenon in action. Today's post is a profile of two pretenders: people who faked being rich for several years by living off their appreciation through mortgage equity extraction. Sometimes I cannot decide which is more amazing, that people would do this at all, or that they could sustain this lifestyle for so long.
Income Requirement: $199,750
Downpayment Needed: $159,800
Purchase Price: $328,000
Purchase Date: 12/6/2001
Address: 4032 Northpark Circle, Irvine, CA 92604
| Beds: | 5 |
| Baths: | 3 |
| Sq. Ft.: | 2,088 |
| $/Sq. Ft.: | $383 |
| Lot Size: | 5,500 sq. ft. |
| Type: | Single Family Residence |
| Style: | Other |
| Year Built: | 1971 |
| Stories: | Two Levels |
| View(s): | Pool |
| Area: | Walnut |
| County: | Orange |
| MLS#: | P617353 |
| Status: | Active |
| On Redfin: | 8 days |
Charming family home with an open floor plan. Enjoy the convinience of a main floor bedroom & bathroom. Inviting living room with high ceilings and fireplace. Remodeled kithchen with granite counters and a center island. Cozy family room is adjacent to the kithen and it boasts wood floors. Master bedroom is extra spacious and it has its own balcony. Enjoy your own swimming pool and still lots of space to enjoy gardening and entertaining outside. Front, back and side yard are landscaped and hardscaped with lots of fruit trees. Inside laundry for your convinience. Wonderful location is central to shopping, schools, and library; all within walking distance.
convinience? kithchen? kithen?
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So how did these people manage their mortgage debt? They bought the property in December 2001 for $328,000, and they had a $307,263 first mortgage. They put just over $20,000 of their own money into the deal. One year later, they opened a $80,000 HELOC. In 2004, they refinanced for $490,000 taking out about $180,000. Hopefully, they paid off the HELOC, at least temporarily. Later that year, they took out a new $30,000 HELOC. Then in July of 2005, they refinanced again for $650,000 with a 1% Option ARM. They have owned the house for less than 4 years at this point, and they have withdrawn $342,737. I guess this wasn't enough, because later in 2005, they took out three more HELOCs for $24,000, $82,000 and $24,000 respectively. This property has at least $650,000 in mortgage debt, and assuming they took out and spent the HELOC money (it would be a continuation of their pattern,) they have over $750,000 in debt to pay off. So when you look at the $799,000 asking price, and think they are doubling their money, think again: if they don't get their asking price, this is going to be a short sale.
$100K a year in consumer spending -- pretending...
Income Requirement: $131,225
Downpayment Needed: $149,750
Purchase Price: $291,000
Purchase Date: 2/19/1999
Address: 5 Altezza, Irvine, CA 92606
| Beds: | 3 |
| Baths: | 2.5 |
| Sq. Ft.: | 1,500 |
| $/Sq. Ft.: | $399 |
| Lot Size: | - |
| Type: | Single Family Residence |
| Style: | Contemporary |
| Year Built: | 1996 |
| Stories: | Two Levels |
| View(s): | Trees/Woods, Has View |
| Area: | Westpark |
| County: | Orange |
| MLS#: | P617433 |
| Status: | Active |
| On Redfin: | 7 days |
SHORT SALE PROPERTY. Cozy fire place in Living room, Step to School, Park. Close to major FREEWAY (5 & 405,Toll Rd), shopping center, professional offices and restaurants. Custom window coverings, Custom Office, Built in closet organizer, spacious Patio next to kitchen. Former MODEL HOME W/ low HOA.
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The price is double what they paid, but it is a short sale. There is only one way to do that: borrow and spend your equity. This seller is an example of someone who tried to be good, but they were seduced by the dark side.
They bought the place in 1999, and they put $58,200 down. For three and a half years, they were fiscally responsible and did not expand their mortgage. In late 2002, they gave in an refinanced for $300,000 taking out their downpayment and a few dollars more. Apparently, this "equity liberation" was rewarding because they opened a $90,000 HELOC in the spring of 2003. At this point, kool aid intoxication had set in and their journey to the dark side was complete. The refinanced in late 2003 for $390,000 apparently paying off their first HELOC, but they opened another one for $100,000. That one only lasted until summer of 2004 when they refinanced again for $497,000 to pay off their other mortgages. Having not learned their lesson, they took out another $88,000 HELOC a few months later. By spring of 2006, they were broke again, so they refinanced for $547,000 and took out another $100,000 HELOC. From 2002 to 2006, they took out and spent $414,200 assuming they spent the final HELOC. So now they have $647,000 in debt on a property they paid $291,000 for. A sale at $600,000 will not pay off the debt, and it will be a short sale. It was a great run, wasn't it? They had 4 years of pretending they were rich.
So what do you think about this behavior?
Think about the impact this money had on our local economy, and think about what it will mean when this money disappears. Do you see why I contend we will have a severe local recession?
Pretending...
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I would like to take this opportunity to thank Brittney for researching these properties and providing me with this information. Without her hard work, I would not be able to bring these stories to you, and these stories need to be told. Some people feel our work here is an invasion of privacy (despite all the information being public record.) These people and those who behaved in a similar fashion deserve to be exposed to the general public. This behavior should be scrutinized for what it is: irresponsible. If these owners find it humiliating, then perhaps they won't do it again... No, who am I kidding? They will do it again.







Ron Paul!
Perhaps the HELOCs were drained; perhaps not.
It is the primary mortgage on this property that presents the most concern.
Great comment Kirk.
We need a President that can maintain such a tight grip on Americans that he can stop them from being stupid or thoughtless or greedy or shortsighted.
I hate it when people blame the government for their own shortcomings. Take responsibility people.
Can’t blame no nigra’s from BCO moving in, that’s for sure.
Wife and I drive paid-for 2006 Hyundai Accents. Feels great. I wouldn’t think about driving a more expensive car. I’m putting a lot of miles on this thing and a more expensive car just means I’m destroying more value.
Hey Alan, did you sell your AAPL? It’s down 10% in after hours trading…
Remember IPOs advice - “I’d be surprised if AAPL can rally the market. Looks like traders have been reducing exposure to Apple since early January. Most bets have been on an earnings disappointment…”
I hear you and agree...the thing is, one cannot tell what $ amount of a HELOC is utilized by looking at public records - the lender will record a DT for the full HELOC amount, but comments typically assume that those $’s are all used. We really don’t know for sure unless we have a short sale situation and the lender’s NOD shows the amount owed…
So your saying its bad to take HELOC money to pay for a car, and instead to finance it through some auto-company?
Or maybe your suggesting we all pay cash for our cars.
Perhaps this is why the ‘Books of Moses’ ban lending money for profit.. But then what would all these people with no talent do, eh?
Then you must have a bad night… or maybe since I quit going there in 03 the place had gone downhill.
The Ritz offers different type of food. Much more complex so I don’t compare them.
Nowadays, if I want a nice steak, I buy a nice piece of meat, like a Ribeye Roast, cut our own thick steak and grill them on our BBQ. Since that baby is a four burner from BBQ;’s Galore, it get mighty hot and sizzles the steaks. I’ve even experimented with aging my own beef in the back of the fridge and it works quite well. Takes about two weeks or so.
Sushi wise we’ve been going to Goro’s right off Alton and Culver. The trick about a sushi bar is knowing the chef, and as my wife is japanese we eat real sushi.
I will look into Tsuruhashi. Thanks.
Ichiro? Yeah.. my mom would love that. She’s a hardcore Mariner’s fan.
Check the stats on fine dining revenues for the last 7 years and you’ll see it’s gone up, Up, UP. Not just the average tab per person but the frequency per week. Same with consumer electronics, people don’t buy something when the old one wears out, they buy a new one when its a different color or smoother or comes in the new Autumn Berry Mist scent.
Most of that money has been disposed of, one way or another.
On the other hand you can find some great stuff on craigslist nowadays and its gonna get even sweeter
Hedge funds exploding and derivatives unwinding—it is going to get vey ugly. The increased volitility seen over the past few months is definintly leading up to something. The icing on the cake was Dubya deciding to do something to help.
Formerbanker, I think IR is saying that spending large amounts of HELOC money is unwise, and worse. I didn’t see him say anything bad about setting up an unused HELOC as an extra source of emergency funds. That just seems prudent.
Don’t people realize that HELOC is just a loan, that will have to be paid back?
This is all that is needed to unlock the real estate market again. Free money handed out in wheel-barrows, just like the last time.
Or they will have to lower prices.
Like, Ohmigod! My Orange County roommates thought I was like totally gay because of the car I drove. Then they met my girlfriend, you know, and they like were totally, like, omigod. That is SUCH a girl car, they said.
Both were deep in debt; one was getting collection calls, took a second job waiting tables ... at Hooters. The other got pregnant - suprise! Didn’t think she could get pregnant, she said…
My girls are growing up in California… oh. man.
I’ve eaten at the Arches; I thought the food was terrible. The biggest joke of a prime ribeye I ever had. I was more impressed with The Ritz. Bypass them both for a night at Tsuruhashi in Fountain Valley, where you can have prime and Kobe ribeye yakiniku style. You might even run into Ichiro or Matsui if the Yanks or Mariners are in town.
Perhaps the HELOCs were drained; perhaps not. We keep a substantial one open on our property, waiting for perfect opportunities.
It is the primary mortgage on this property that presents the most concern.
You are right about Honda having the superior system. And I like the normal car idea—I don’t like what they did to the egghead Prius. Before that, they were normal too.
My normal gas burning VW gets better milage than the Ford Escape Hybrid. I laugh when I hear them bragging about those numbers.
Humm. For a minute there, I thought you were going to go off about the redundant kitchens, as if Americans don’t have enough ways to stuff their faces.
IR, I remain a big fan, but as I’ve posted previously, I believe there are plenty of people like me who have large but unused HELOC’s - a source of cash to tap in the event of unforeseen circumstances. It cost me nothing to increase the HELOC over the past several years - geez, it seems almost imprudent not to have one (don’t most people have more than one credit card jsut to have a backup ?). I never considered using it as an ATM card. But then again, I am also comfortable driving a 10 year old car.
Ron Paul!!!
Jake,
I have done dozens and dozens of HELOCS in the last 4 years and I can tell you they were all to payoff credit cards which were already utilized, home improvement (much of which was frivolous), to buy another property, or to buy an automobile.
I don’t remember a single soul who was using a HELOC to invest.
So yes, since I was originating these HELOCS I CAN tell you why they took them out. That mistakenly took it as “free cash” not a debt that needed to be paid back.
P.S. Traders have lots of pet names for supposedly significant shapes in charts. They are just manifestations of “apophenia” - seeing meaningful patterns in randomness. It’s natural - humans are incredible pattern-finding machines.
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The term was coined in 1958 by Klaus Conrad, who defined it as the “unmotivated seeing of connections” accompanied by a “specific experience of an abnormal meaningfulness”.
In statistics, apophenia would be classed as a Type I error (false positive, false alarm, caused by an excess in sensitivity). Apophenia is often used as an explanation of some paranormal and religious claims.
Conrad originally described this phenomenon in relation to the distortion of reality present in psychosis, but it has become more widely used to describe this tendency in healthy individuals without necessarily implying the presence of neurological or mental illness.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia
The people who really have lots of money are always trying to look low-key. Tee shirt, shorts and flip-flops seems to be the dress code.
lorrieambrosino:
A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a moderate rise in the price of a stock follows a spectacular fall, with the connotation that the rise does not indicate improving circumstances. It is derived from the notion that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce
We’re not going to have a dead cat tomorrow IMHO. A DCB occurs during oversold conditions and is moderate rise in the prices of a stock or stocks without some underlying improvement in fundamentals or overall short to mid term sentiment. I don’t think there has been enough volume on recent selling to create a seriously oversold condition. If BofA were to come out with surprisingly good earnings maybe, but I doubt that will happen…
I vote for freefall and will be loving every point of it. Go bonds!
Oh, yeah, the government is going away, and next, we won’t have to pay any taxes! Yeah!
I suppose it is possible that someone developed a chronic condition (4 years) not covered by insurance requiring hundreds of thousands of dollars in treatment that just happened to correspond to the real estate bubble.
We don’t really know why these people took out HELOCs. Maybe they were being irresponsible. Maybe they were dealing with a major health crisis. You never know. But I think it’s wrong (and possibly even cruel) to simply assume bad or irresponsible motives without evidence. It’s the one thing that bothers me about this blog.
Another interesting read on the topic:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/consumers-spent-government-rebate-2001/story.aspx?guid={20BCC217-925D-492C-9559-59C6BADC02C7}
A number of studies have shown that a great portion of the 2001 tax rebate checks were spent vs. saved. Here’s a reference to one:
http://ideas.repec.org/p/pri/wwseco/136.html
In reference to what might happen tomorrow-what is a dead cat bounce and what is a freefall?
Your 401k may not be worth much after this is all done.
big lot.
I think you owe me $537.900. I shall accept a payment of $3221.78 per month for 30 years after you give me $20K for the privilege of indebting yourself to me.
There shall be a prepayment penalty of 10% of the outstanding balance.
Early principal prepayments shall be assessed a handling fee of $50 or 10% of the amount whichever is larger.
Make the payments to my Credit Union Account:
1456xxxx0010xxxx
Payment due on the 1st of every month, rain or shine, weekend or holiday matters not. After the 15th the payment is 3532.34.
Happy?
Coupons are good.
Rainchecks are even better.
Often, the local grocery store price leader is sometimes sold out, so you can ask for a raincheck (which is good for several months, if not forever)
Then come back a day or two later and find the price leader in stock & buy it and stock up.
Then a few months later when it’s not on sale, pull out the raincheck.
Personally, I will probably save the money, but I suspect the vast majority will spend every penny of it within 30 days.
2003 pricing will be a milestone we pass this year. 2001 prices will be closer to the bottom.
I think there is still plenty of room for equities prices to drop further. I was just pointing out that prices have dropped precipitously over the last month which creates a short-term oversold condition in the markets. My guess is that stocks will bounce back up to technical resistance levels before rolling over and making even lower lows.
FYI, most options are taxed as ordinary income when they are exercised. Like I said, capital gains are supposed to have nothing to do with “working”.
The idea of the lower tax rate for capital gains is that you already paid taxes on the money once. But, I paid taxes on the money I spent on Graduate school. You pay taxes on the money you put in a savings account and those returns are all taxed as ordinary income.
The other “lie” that they say is that we need to make up for inflation. If you have enough money to invest long term, you probably are not investing it all at once and all in the same asset, so you are continually investing and continually cashing out of assets. So what’s the difference there? Just like a bank account, add a little every month and get a return every month.
One of our favorite restaurants raised their prices in 03 so that dinner for four was over 300 bucks. With a so so bottle of wine. Before that, it was around 200. Went up 50% in a year.
Miind you, this is The Arches in Newport and the food is really, REALLY good but no way in hell will I pay Ritz Carlton Dining Room prices at The Arches. So we haven’t gone for years.
Maybe now all of these restaurateurs will come back to reality and lower the prices. Besides, Georgia Frontiere used to eat there and now that she’d dead there goes _that_ part of the very rich business.
I’m not holding my breath, because there are still many really rich folks around, but I wouldn’t mind it at all if The Arches went back to charging less than 30 bucks for the Prime Rib.
East St. Louis is in the Midwest, right?
QED.
We’re gonna put some Stalag 13 like towers in the entrances to TR. To keep the riff raff out. Only three significant points of entry that we can cordone off. The TR Apartments and the walls on the perimeter may be an issue was they are taller now and we have brand new lights courtesy of the City.
We might as well ring Uni as well.
Also, there’s talk about moats and bridges on the freeway exits.
Personally, I will sacrifice the flatlands… There are too many points of entry and the geography is too open. In TR we can control the entries easily at the passes.
Bring in Los Federales Amigos.
Seller might as well slash another 100K off these asking pricesright now-- while we celebrated MLK day the global financial markets crashed, and are crashing further tomorrow. Say hello! to unemployment and goodbye! to any turnaround in the housing market for the next few years…
The only place an outdoor kitchen makes sense is Hawaii. It’s not overly humid and the temps are nice all year long, day and night. So, as long as you got some mosquito repellent, an outdoor setup makes a lot of sense.
Eons ago, when I lived in Oahu, we spent half our lives in the lanai (morning and evenings) and indoor by the AC (middle of the day). In the winter it was an outdoor affair all the time.
Of course, if you move to the Windward side then you stay in the lanai all the time.
Good rum too.
A cigar lover’s paradise.
Aloha.
Aaagh.... we have a Civic Hybrid. What I think is the Driver’s and Thinking Person’s hybrid.
Research the IMA vs Synergy concepts and you will see that the Honda system is much more sensical.
The Synergy system is underwritten heavily by TMS and can not be sustained. Only by selling those V8 SUVs and trucks can Toyota afford to sell the Prius at a discount.
Indeed, Toyota is as much a PR company as the title of this IR’s post. Mortage the money from the unsustainable SUV sales to wink people into believing the company is green and has an actual solution.
HMC and AHM, OTOH, do not subscribe to this. They have created a system that can be sold for a profit and this is sustainable. Drive the Civic hybrid and it feels like a normal car, with the gauge cluster where God and common sense dictates.
Of course, the Prius is an ostantatious car for ostentatious people. Hell, I see a few of them around here too. I’ll bet they have outdoor Vking kitchens too.
We have a BBQ’s Galore.
So there.
Prius? Yuck! Just another PR product for ignorant ostantatious people.
And don’t even talk about the RX400hi or the Chevy (Yukon?) hybrid or the Ford Escape Hybrid? WTF?
gfw - no f-bombs please!
Nice link, good reference article.
I wouldn’t say the markets are oversold. We are still at 15-16x trailing earning on S&P500. Trailing earnings that were high mind you. The updated trailing P/Es on falling earning particularly on financials is going to be boosted upward (redundant I know). So taking the long term average P/E of 14-16x I would say the markets are rights around fair multiples. The big question however is whether those historical averages are justified by 1.5% dividend payouts and anemic long-term growth prospects…
Oversold? Perhaps not.
Re “Human nature is to spend everything you make.”
I’d say IR is more with the times there (except perhaps it’s more like ... human nature is to spend everything you anticipate making soon - ie. the bonus is spent before you get the check).
However, per Paul Krugman’s column today…
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/21/stimulus-issues/
The big problem with attempts to provide temporary economic stimulus is how to ensure that the money gets spent. As Milton Friedman pointed out 50 years ago, consumers tend to base their spending on “permanent income” — the income they expect to have over the long run — rather than their income in any given year. So an $800 check from the Treasury tends, other things equal, to be mostly saved rather than spent.
And trying to stay as non-political as possible, I wonder how many people here complaining about the government are actually involved in their government? How many emails a week do you send to your elected representatives? Do you contribute time or money to people you believe in running for election? Have you ever gone to a city council meeting? Do you do more than simply cross off the party you feel best about when you vote and then, afterwards, cynically complain they’re all incompetent crooks?
I’m not accusing anyone, I’m asking. Before you complain here, or anywhere, about the government have you done everything in your power to make that government work?
I’m as disgusted with the failures of our elected governments (city, state and federal) as anyone here. This isn’t a defense of government as an institution, it’s a question of how much responsibility do each of us think we should be taking for what’s going on.
There’s a commenter here who regularly espouses the pure capitalist idea that if it makes money and you’re not convicted for doing it, it’s all good and, to take a step further “we’re” suckers for thinking that’s not the case. Maybe that person is right but isn’t the end result of years of that thinking what we’re seeing now?
Nice rant, but I think you’re in the wrong blog.
I think a little close examination will show that we can thank Alan Greenspan for allowing 2 bubbles on his watch.
As I recall it was Bush #41 who first put him in, but Clinton ratified him twice. The tech bubble was on Clinton’s watch and the RE bubble on Bush #43
I think this kind of posting leads to less support and belief in what remains of the Democratic Party. Seriously, do you think people capitulate and think, “Where did I go so wrong?” after reading your post?
It reminds me a lot of the Progressives around me here (in the Bay Area at the moment).
You know, they can’t figure out why everyone is turned off instead of embracing their point of view.
Imagine that.....
Comment by Perspective
“But I don’t know a single person who went crazy like the examples here.”
Then, with all due respect, you don’t get out much. I know of more than a dozen people who have pulled this stunt and none of them live in California (four other states). Which, of course, isn’t to say HELOCing your way into a higher standard of living isn’t common in Socal. I know it was. But to suggest that it’s only Socal is a bit naive, don’t you think?
I agree that there’s little depth to thinking, or thinking for oneself.
I didn’t vote for the Current Commander in Chief, and from your barb, I suspect you didn’t either.
I do think the blog and the posts are a lot nicer to read if we stick to real estate.
I refuse to read the Calculated Risk Blog not because it isn’t good - it’s actually excellent, but since the owner insists on sliding in political asides directed at hatred for the current administration I pulled the bookmark and don’t look back.
You might want to go to the Huffington Post as a better forum for politics.
Well, not withstanding your F-Bomb of astonishment, I think a lot of people leaked their money like a sieve.
When you think you have a lot of money, it will leak out left and right. This isn’t just paying bills—even the bills for the HELOC and the first mortgage, it’s the meals out, the nice schools, new cars every two years, and oh, a vacation to Hawaii would be nice.
We sold our house near the top of the bubble to rent, but I have family members who couldn’t resist the sirens call to tap the equity for everything you can imagine. I think of it as couples earning $150K a year spending as if they were earning $250K a year with no idea of a budget. They have nice cars, vacations, pre-paid college for the kids and the requisite granite countertops with stainless appliances.
I don’t think they could tell you where it all went on a bet.
I think of it as the Britney Spears Lite lifestyle...
I would be willing to bet my 401K that the majority of the people that participate in this kind of fraud can very easily leave the country.
...I posted this above but, here it is again. What does the board think? Are we heading for an ugly recession? And, if we are how does that change the thinking about the ‘bottom’ in housing prices...?
Hi IR -
Futures contracts are trading and so are US stocks on foreign exchanges. Tomorrow is looking like it is going to be incredibly ugly. European and Asian markets dropped between 3.5% and 7.2% (Germany)! This move doesn’t look rational or porportional but, it is what it is… Maybe we are lucky and we get that capitulation sell that allows new buyers to come into the market. BTW, this is what needs to happen in housing! Too bad housing is so illiquid. This just means it will take longer for prices to find fundamental equilibrium and support. With all of this wealth being obliterated in housing or the markets it makes one wonder aloud how people will come up with downpayments unless prices come down dramatically.
I’ve said this before but, I believe people’s belief that we will only roll back to 2003 pricing because of inflation and rising rents could very well be in error. What if we have a significant local or national or global recession? If this happens all bets about 2003 prices being support will be amazed at what happens. Just IMHO…
Hi IR -
Futures contracts are trading and so are US stocks on foreign exchanges. Tomorrow is looking like it is going to be incredibly ugly. European and Asian markets dropped between 3.5% and 7.2% (Germany)! This move doesn’t look rational or porportional but, it is what it is… Maybe we are lucky and we get that capitulation sell that allows new buyers to come into the market. BTW, this is what needs to happen in housing! Too bad housing is so illiquid. This just means it will take longer for prices to find fundamental equilibrium and support. With all of this wealth being obliterated in housing or the markets it makes one wonder aloud how people will come up with downpayments unless prices come down dramatically.
I’ve said this before but, I believe people’s belief that we will only roll back to 2003 pricing because of inflation and rising rents could very well be in error. What if we have a significant local or national or global recession? If this happens all bets about 2003 prices being support will be amazed at what happens. Just IMHO…
I don’t know how the Highway Trust Funds have been spent in your neck of the woods, but in the parts of California I’ve lived in the returns on investment have been abysmal.
In the 1970’s Jerry Browns Director of Transportation, Adriana Gianturco, canceled nearly all the new road infrastructure explaining that a new day was dawning and we needed good public transit. The freeways and highways were canceled but the high speed rail and subways were never built. Instead the bickering and fights over Rights of Way, buses versus rail and Inter-City versus Intra-City heated to a crescendo.
Since the allotted funds were not being spent on infrastructure improvements, the public employee unions geared up for a pay and benefits campaign that would bring Christmas early. It used to be that a public agency employee sacrificed pay for security and a good pension. This is no longer the case, at least not in California. The State and government employees are some of the best paid in the nation with incredible benefits plus a fully paid pension to boot. It bought peace and quite at a price to be paid by our children. The complaints about Social Security running out of money don’t hold a candle to what CALPERS and other pension agency shortfalls will see as the Baby Boomers retire—never mind Gen X.
We have fiscal irresponsibility bombs that will start going off, and Subprime will be the least of our worries.
Well, these same governments that gave huge benefits and outsize pay raises to their employees are now coming to us and saying, “Gee, if you won’t pony up a few dollars more, there’s no way we can build the 21st Century transportation infrastructure.”
The duplicity is incredible. How do they restore public trust when they can get nothing done, and get nothing built? How do they fix their budget when everyone is earning big paychecks, getting full benefits and look forward to a fully funded defined benefit pension??
I just hate giving them any more money when they have nothing to show. They are mortgaged to the hilt with obligations that would embarrass even some of the FB’s we highlight here.
I would love to wait for the trains holiday schedule, actually any schedule. The SF to LA high speed rail is one of my favorites, right after the LA to Las Vegas train......
surfing --
Agreed on the capital gains point, and that’s a little understood fact. For example, even though I’m a Republican, I don’t like that Romney’s “0% capital gains rate for persons who earn less than $200k in income” is a disingenous giveaway to hedge fund managers with carried interests and corporate execs who take “small” salaries yet cash in millions in stock options.
Capital gains rates should be low enough to encourage savings and investment, but I personally believe that we shouldn’t lower the capital gains rate further until we’ve lowered income rates at all levels (to relieve the working professionals, many of whom pay at the highest marginal rates) and balanced the budget.
Bush’s tax cuts did eliminate Clinton’s top marginal rate of 39%, and that helped numerous working professionals in OC.
It’s the title of a PBS documentary and a book, both, I think from the mid 1990s.
What’s really sad is that refinancing in 2003 was pretty much the right thing to do. That was the real through in rates and 30 year fixed jumbos were around 6%.
If you think the schadenfreude is rooted in jealousy, then you really don’t understand what many of us have been saying about this behavior. This lifestyle is not enviable, it is reprehensible.
capital gains are almost always related to passive investments (unless of course your are a private equity investor), so those with the lowest marginal tax rates are typically those that are the richest. Working professionals in OC are the ones being taxed the most and W did little to reduce that burden while providing HUGH breaks to the very richest.
Man, a Corolla, sheez… Saving money is great, but there has to be a limit somewhere. If you like little cars with no guts, at least get a Prius. Maybe the ladies will like you because you are “green” in that case.
Don’t remind me… My boys sucked. SC beat ‘em ugly. My beloved Packers lost too. Trevor Ariza broke his foot as well. Not a good sports weekend for ole IPO.
agreed.
I didn’t go to college. I’ve been working in the software industry since I was 18. I’ve always spent less money then I made. Hence i’m doing decent with my future downpayment fund.
But I’m happy I also have had a lot of fun along the way, opposed to an extra 15k in the bank or so.
Honestly, money doesn’t mean all that much to me. When I was just starting, making 45k a year, I drove a really old bwm, ate at del taco and olive garden a lot, and owned an older computer.
I make a lot more then that now, but my lifestyle hasn’t changed all that much. My bmw is newer, I eat at del taco and spaghettini, and my computer is a little nicer.
The reason for the original post was to point out how silly it looked for so many of you to take joy in other people’s (sometimes self inflicted) tragedies, simply because they lived an enviable lifestyle.
Take joy in their forclosures and bankruptcys because you can buy a cheaper house, not out of wrathful jealousy.
“Correction - conservatives are for smaller government when it is politically expedient. In practice, they spent even more money than so called “liberals”. The Republican Congress (let’s not just blame W) grew spending faster than the previous Democratic Congress when they have nobody to check them. I think we can safely retire this myth that conservatives are for smaller governments – it is simply not true.”
I’ll concede that the Republican Congress, like W, has been a disappointment on this front. That’s why I switched from “Republican” to “conservative” to make this point. But conservatives *are* for small government. Unfortunately, Republicans have too few conservatives in government, and too many who subscribe to the Tom DeLay school of political patronage.
“And I fail to see how allowing billionaires to pass their wealth to their scions like Paris Hilton who have absolutely no motivation other than to party their lives away.”
Wow, gameboy, can’t you come up with a more obvious strawman than that? You are right, anyone in the top tax bracket has to be just like Paris Hilton! They couldn’t have possibly worked for their money and they definitely don’t deserve to keep it. Of course, nobody has ever sold a small business for more than $1.5 million. And I’m sure there are no doctors or engineers or entrepeneurs who make that kind of money. So let’s set tax policy based on what Paris Hilton deserves. Try again.
Sadly, when you peel off all the self-righteous anger and superficial populism from people like gameboy, at the core is usually envy and hostility for people who have done well in life.
There are massive falts in both parties. There is a reason why George Washington suggested that we avoid the establisment of political parties. So much for that, huh?
I just have a hard time aligning myself with a party (the Democrooks) who pretend to stand for the average working american. Well, why don’t we all strive to be above-average working Americans? I can’t stand the “woe is me” mentality of democrats. The hand-outs and bail-outs for people who want nothing more in this life than to be mediocre. I see jealous little children who are too lazy to better their lives and moan and complain about what others have and what they themselves do not have.
The Republicans are just as retarded. They only care about the same things as the democrats do, getting re-elected. Many of them wine and dine in Larry Kudlow’s fantasy land of low interest rates and non-stop corporate earnings growth. Nevermind that there is a rapidly accelerating gap between the upper, upper class and everyone else. Just as democrats whine about what others have, Republicans ignore what others don’t have.
I’ve given up on our incompetent, corrupt congress a while ago.
Its a long season and there will be another meeting yet!
PS: Thanks for Norm Chow!!!!!!!
Go UCLA!!!!!!
How long have you shopped at Costco?
I agree that they tend to have good prices from the outset but I receive at least one booklet from them every 2 or 3 months full of coupons to clip out and bring in to redeem for an even better value.
I wouldn’t reject you because of your car; I’d reject you because of your need to use crude language rather than articulate your thoughts intelligently. In case you hadn’t noticed, the culture on this blog does not support potty-mouth.
“the Democratic Congress will not allow it”
Bwahahahaha!!!!
As if.
Name ONE thing the Losercrat - Surrendercrat - dumbasses have been able to do since getting the majority. Instead they’re being slapped silly by the lame duck Mr 26%, least popular President EVER. They can’t even tie their shoes, much less dictate policy.
I’d have thought they’d at least make a Michael Moore national holiday or something. Or nationalize Starbucks. Or force us all to gay-marry. Where ARE these powerful librul hippies and their communism all ya’all keep yammering on about?
Man Skek, thanks for your post. I needed the laugh today.
Correction - conservatives are for smaller government when it is politically expedient. In practice, they spent even more money than so called “liberals”. The Republican Congress (let’s not just blame W) grew spending faster than the previous Democratic Congress when they have nobody to check them. I think we can safely retire this myth that conservatives are for smaller governments – it is simply not true.
And Iraq War is relevant to economy as most of the GDP growth during W’s presidency has been around the housing bubble, the increased government spending (see above), and spending on Iraq War. And it is because of this uncontrolled spending (including the war that we cannot afford) we have dollar that is in the toilet and the very real possibility of stagflation.
HA! That is a laugh. Are you one of the supply-siders that has been debunked by economists over and over again? US had the highest rate of GDP growth when the highest marginal tax rate was 70%. While it is a good idea to reduce taxes during recessions, cutting the top rate is not the best way to go. And I fail to see how allowing billionaires to pass their wealth to their scions like Paris Hilton who have absolutely no motivation other than to party their lives away. You don’t pay ANY tax for inheritance below $1.5 million, so small businesses are already covered. This is supposed to be a Republic, not monarchy or oligarchy. There is no reason to encourage “extreme wealth” for people who do not deserve them.