15 MALLARD DRIVE, Aliso Viejo, CA 92656

List Price: $725,900

Last Sale:  10/07/04 

Last Sales Price:  $825,000 

Bedrooms:  4 

Full Baths:  2 

Partial Baths:  1 

Square Feet:  2,100 

Lot Size:  4,512 Sq. Ft. 

Year Built:  1996 

Listing Date:  09/27/07 

On Market:  3 days 

Type:  SFR 

Status:  ACTIVE 

MLS #:  S507112 

ns2524,
Keep an eye on 28 Spicewood 92656. It was featured in the OCR last Sunday because it sold for $805k. The comps do not support that at all. I smell fraud and bet we will see it in the foreclosure thread by April.

graphrix,
You’re completely right about 28 Spicewood, beginning with the fact that the sellers were able to get $306k more than they paid for it in August ‘03. Considering there are many, many 2004 rollbacks in Aliso Viejo these days (so we can assume appreciation has been virtually 0 since then, if not negative), it seems like a pretty big stretch to believe this property shot up that far that quickly.
As for comps - 25 Spicewood (exact same size) sold one month earlier for $710k, as I’m sure you’re well aware. This one doesn’t pass the smell test at all. For what it’s worth, the closest comp that’s on the market now is asking $56k less - $749k.

caliguy,
Did you see this one? It went back to the bank on 9/4 for $270k and is already listed for $299k. Then there is this one that went back to the bank for $632k. Of course this one is classic it has a make me move price of $1.025mil. Well the bank is going to make you move alright since they bought already for 40% off your wishing price. This one here has a minimum bid of $705k for the 10/4 auction and they paid $850k in 2004. Someone here has been drinking the Cuervo alright. They paid $425k in 2003 but they needed some MEW and the NTS is $450k. Ouch this one is losing $170k if it sells for $725k not including commission and fees from their 11/2006 price of $895k. The NTS is even higher at $766k so I don’t think the bank would take $725k.
Oh man south county is getting hammered right now. You sure have your hands full taking it on.

"Down, down, down…" - Alice in Wonderland
412 NORTH EARLHAM STREET, Orange
Sales History
09/21/2005— $610,000
Price Reduced: 09/08/07—$549,000 to $519,000

Price Reduced: 09/20/07—$519,000 to $499,000

Price Reduced: 10/02/07—$499,000 to $449,000
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1077374

graphrix,
Thanks for the heads up on the listings…I’ll have to look into some of those to post on my blog. And, you’re absolutely right - South County is getting completely, and I mean completely slammed right now. I was surprised to see that even Laguna Beach is seeing its median price dip (if you can trust the median), so obviously the high end is not immune. No South County ZIP saw an increase in both the median and sales volume over the past month - in fact, in most areas were down on both fronts. Lake Forest and Ladera Ranch are particularly brutal right now.
I haven’t gone out to Ladera open houses for a long time, but there were a ton of places up for sale long before this mess really began, so I can only imagine what it’s like out there now. I went to some open houses in Aliso Viejo recently, and we saw just one other couple the whole afternoon.

The property talked about in this article is on the other side of the country (Greenwich, Conn) but it debunks the standard realtor statement that higher end properties are not affect but the housing slump.
www.cnbc.com/id/21112461
"There’s an indoor lap pool, eight-car garage and four-storey elevator. But the 26,000-sq ft, Tuscan-style home features something even more unusual in this ritzy suburb of gated estates and mansions—a $3 million discount on its price.
As the credit crisis started to shake global financial markets in August, the owners of the 22-acre estate at 309 Taconic Road in Greenwich, Connecticut, cut their price to $19 million, showing turbulence in the U.S. housing market penetrating the wealthiest strata of American society."
"But the global credit crunch is stirring caution among its newest crop of wealthly elite. Greenwich is the unofficial capital of the U.S. hedge fund boom. More than 100 of the private investment pools for the wealthy have set up in the town. That worries economist Edward Deak at Fairfield University in Connecticut.
"The hedge funds, private equity firms are taking a hit," he said.
"I’m concerned about what the mortgage meltdown is going to mean for bonus incomes coming into Connecticut in January ‘08 and also January of ‘09."

Another tale from a far away land (Miami).   I thought the auction descriptions are interesting.
www.cnbc.com/id/21102250
"At a condo auction a few weeks ago here (Platinum Condos) about 300 people showed up but only 50 actually bid. The rest were folks from banks, hedge funds, and mortgage lenders. It’s like when more ‘industry’ shows up at a Madonna concert than actual fans. They all wanted to watch the bleeding begin and see just how fast it flowed. "
The article also stated that Miami has a three-year inventory. 

These 100,000+ losses are a common place now.
25831 CHAPEL HILL DR, Lake Forest, CA 92630

Last Sale:  11/02/06 

Sales Price:  $715,000 

List Price: $590,000

Bedrooms:  4 

Full Baths:  3 

Partial Baths:  0 

Square Feet:  1,829 

Lot Size:  5,900 Sq. Ft. 

Year Built:  1977 

Listing Date:  10/04/07 

On Market:  0 day 

Type:  SFR 

Status:  ACTIVE 

MLS #:  C07146132 

Nice find ns2524!  Here’s the link: http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1189289

ns2524 - isn’t it crazy how common these types of losses are becoming? Another thing that is surprising me is I’ve still been finding obvious flip attempts out there. I guess they could get lucky and find a buyer…

100,000+
26632 PEPITA DRIVE, Mission Viejo, CA 92691

Last Sale:  09/15/04 

Sales Price:  $739,000 

List Price: $634,900

Bedrooms:  3 

Full Baths:  2 

Partial Baths:  1 

Square Feet:  1,954 

Lot Size:  6,600 Sq. Ft. 

Year Built:  1967 

Listing Date:  10/05/07 

On Market:  1 day 

Type:  SFR 

Status:  ACTIVE 

MLS #:  S508283 

300,000+
 24951 MUSTANG DRIVE, Laguna Hills, CA 92653

 List Price: $1,249,900

 Last Sale:  10/21/05 

Sales Price:  $1,500,000 

Bedrooms:  4 

Full Baths:  2 

Partial Baths:  1 

Square Feet:  2,580 

Lot Size:  34,848 Sq. Ft. 

Year Built:  1979 

Listing Date:  10/05/07 

On Market:  1 day 

Type:  SFR 

Status:  ACTIVE 

MLS #:  S508236 

Mission Viejo, CA 92691

Last Sale:  03/07/05 

Sales Price:  $530,000 

List Price: $449,900

Bedrooms:  3 

Full Baths:  3 

Partial Baths:  1 

Square Feet:  1,678 

Lot Size:  1,961 Sq. Ft. 

Year Built:  1976 

Listing Date:  10/04/07 

On Market:  2 days 

Type:  CONDO/TH 

Status:  ACTIVE 

MLS #:  S508254 

1 Westchester Ct, Coto de Caza
MLS#: S489068
Tract: Tanglewood
4 bedroom, 3 bath, 3-car garage, 3195 sq ft, 10,142 lot size
 
Purchased: 09/22/04
Purchase Price: $1,175,000
 
List Prices:  05/20/07 $1,199,900; 07/30/07 $1,184,900; 08/08/07 $1,150,000
<u>SOLD</u>:  10/07 $1,114,000 (5 months to sell)
 
LOSS assuming 5% RE Commission:  $116,700 or 10%

63 S Gingham St, Rancho Santa Margarita
MLS # S483560
Area: Wagon Wheel
5 bedroom, 3 bath, 2841 sq. ft, 7,100 lot sz
HOA: $50
On Market since April 2007 (6 months)

Sale History:  08/12/2005: $1,010,000; 11/19/1998: $380,000

They will be losing $340,000 If they get their current asking price of $800k and assuming 5% re commission.
 
<u>31% Loss</u> (and it could be worse since it hasn’t sold yet!)

Taxes have not been paid either.

 
<u>List Prices:</u>
04/11/07 $1,100,000
05/08/07 $1,049,000
06/07/07 $999,000
08/09/07 $925,000
08/16/07 $899,000
08/22/07 $875,000
08/29/07 $850,000
09/05/07 $825,000
09/12/07 $800,000

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1185894
Right across from Tustin Fields
Now listing at 599,000

 
     
        04/11/2006
        $799,000
       
        10.2%/yr
       
     
     
        07/16/2004
        $675,000
       
        16.1%/yr
       
     
     
        06/26/1998
        $273,500
       
        79.7%/yr
       
     
     
        02/06/1998
        $218,497
       
        -3.6%/yr
       
     
     
        05/26/1994
        $250,000
       
        —
       
     
 

In Orange:

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1100406
Last sales price: $661k

Current asking price: $480k

Loss assuming sale minus 6 percent selling costs: $209,800

Oh, and for a big loss in Coto, check this out : http://www.southoctracker.com/2007/10/225k-loser-in-coto.html

That is an amazing agent.  I mean there were only seven words in the description and yet he managed to misspell one of them. 
 

CalGal - Two more notice of defaults in Coto; one on Loam which are the Toll Brothers homes that usually go for over $2mil and one on Avena which is Los Ranchos Estates.  An NOD in Los Ranchos?  What is up with that?  I will have to go check that out.  There can’t be more than two or three homes on Avena and there may be only one.

Here’s a train wreck in Santa Ana… $212k loss in about 8 months if a sale at this price and 6 percent selling costs:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1088865
Description, my emphasis in bold: Great Property for first time buyers. Recently painted. Great loactionn close to everything. Excellent location. Garage has been converted can help with extra income.

Almost half a million dollars and you only get 1 bathroom.

"Garage has been converted can help with extra income. "
Garage has been converted?  To what, an ATM?

LOL

I wonder if it’s a legal conversion with permits and all.