PANDA - 17 November 2009 05:40 PM

Sorry for hi-jacking this thread into a Caucasion/Asian FCB discussion. Let’s get back on track to “Current forecast for Irvine bottom” I have to say that Irvine Renter’s forecasted chart probably would of come to pass if the government did not intervene. Irvine Renter, with current economic conditions you’ve seen so far, do you have a new and adjusted projected forecast chart for Irvine housing from 2010 - 2014? I believe your old chart showed the Irvine median home price of $419,500 sometime in late 2011/2012. Do you still believe that we will see a $419,500 median home price at the bottom in Irvine and if so when?

We would all love to see a new adjusted forecast chart for Irvine housing. I myself am not sure why Irvine homes prices have only dropped 10% since the 2006 peak. Is it because of the Premium paying Asians or Bernanke? Let’s discuss!

Yes, it is because of the Asians (mostly Chinese).  Koreans do not have the buying power as the Taiwanese Chinese do.  The current population of home buyers in Irvine are 90% Chinese.  Just ask any real estate agent that does business in Irvine.

Mcdonna1980 - 17 November 2009 06:41 PM

Panda, I found these posts.
Bottom or bear Rally?

Inflation Spike

Bid Ask Spreads

Rent or Own

This last one give 3 scenarios for Irvine’s futre median. Oct 9, 2009

if unemployment reaches 15% and mortages rates at 7%+, and we see a ice scenario from IR’s graph… I will then be fully convinced that Irvine home prices are untouchable.. I will go into my little cave and cry too!

Still Too High - 17 November 2009 08:09 PM

PANDA - 17 November 2009 05:40 PM

Sorry for hi-jacking this thread into a Caucasion/Asian FCB discussion. Let’s get back on track to “Current forecast for Irvine bottom” I have to say that Irvine Renter’s forecasted chart probably would of come to pass if the government did not intervene. Irvine Renter, with current economic conditions you’ve seen so far, do you have a new and adjusted projected forecast chart for Irvine housing from 2010 - 2014? I believe your old chart showed the Irvine median home price of $419,500 sometime in late 2011/2012. Do you still believe that we will see a $419,500 median home price at the bottom in Irvine and if so when?

We would all love to see a new adjusted forecast chart for Irvine housing. I myself am not sure why Irvine homes prices have only dropped 10% since the 2006 peak. Is it because of the Premium paying Asians or Bernanke? Let’s discuss!

Yes, it is because of the Asians (mostly Chinese).  Koreans do not have the buying power as the Taiwanese Chinese do.  The current population of home buyers in Irvine are 90% Chinese.  Just ask any real estate agent that does business in Irvine.

“I can potentially see this ratio support getting really ugly where Asians will make up 65-70% of Uni High and 25-30% Caucasions in the next 5 - 10 years. These are demographic changes i have never seen in my life.”

i have seen this play out in both cities my parents have lived in… first in monterey park in the early 80’s… then when we moved to diamond bar in the mid 90’s… i believe it’s called “white flight”.

villagepeople - 17 November 2009 09:05 PM

“I can potentially see this ratio support getting really ugly where Asians will make up 65-70% of Uni High and 25-30% Caucasions in the next 5 - 10 years. These are demographic changes i have never seen in my life.”

i have seen this play out in both cities my parents have lived in… first in monterey park in the early 80’s… then when we moved to diamond bar in the mid 90’s… i believe it’s called “white flight”.

Isn’t that what they said about compton and inglewood in the early 60’s?

seems like every post gets turned into a discussion about asians in irvine…

hopefully obama can buy us all a beer so we can forget the racial divide.

sad.machine - 17 November 2009 09:47 PM

seems like every post gets turned into a discussion about asians in irvine…

hopefully obama can buy us all a beer so we can forget the racial divide.

ever take a peek at the costa mesa threads? they often morph into discussions about hispanics.

The reality is that Irvine real estate market is strong due to the lack of inventory.  When inventory goes from over 1,300 listed for sale or 10 months of inventory to less than 500 or about 2.5 months of inventory, you will get very sticky prices.  It’s not just asian buyers that are causing Irvine prices not to fall, it’s the lack of inventory.  I would even argue there are less buyers out there looking for a home today than there were back in 05/06 but the lack of inventory is creating a buyer’s frenzy.  Any decently priced home in Irvine (at or slightly above comps) will fly into escrow within 7-10 days.

Try to buy any decent quality, turnkey rental SFR property around Southern CA today is like pulling teeth.  I think I’ve submitted 11 bids so far this month and was out-bid on each one with above-asking offers.  Fixer-uppers and condos are less competitive, but watch out for insolvent HOA’s hitting back with large special assessments.  YOU, may be picking up the tab for everyone else who didn’t pay their HOA fee’s.

momopi - 17 November 2009 10:42 PM

Try to buy any decent quality, turnkey rental SFR property around Southern CA today is like pulling teeth.  I think I’ve submitted 11 bids so far this month and was out-bid on each one with above-asking offers.  Fixer-uppers and condos are less competitive, but watch out for insolvent HOA’s hitting back with large special assessments.  YOU, may be picking up the tab for everyone else who didn’t pay their HOA fee’s.

Not surprised, any decently priced properties in Orange County get multiple offers and many end up selling at or over list price.  Again, the property is the lack of non-short sale inventory.

sad.machine - 17 November 2009 10:40 AM

I know initially it was at 2011

Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?

Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease?  What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?

Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past a bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip.  The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.

Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:30 AM

sad.machine - 17 November 2009 10:40 AM

I know initially it was at 2011

Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?

Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease?  What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?

Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past a bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip.  The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.

Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.

You are wrong again.  Check the numbers.

awgee - 18 November 2009 07:36 AM

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:30 AM

sad.machine - 17 November 2009 10:40 AM

I know initially it was at 2011

Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?

Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease?  What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?

Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past a bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip.  The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.

Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.

You are wrong again.  Check the numbers.

Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)

Perhaps we should redefine the bottom in terms of carrying costs in order to adjust for the impact of interest rate fluctuations.

awgee - 17 November 2009 06:51 PM

I dunno.  If I was looking for a bottom, I would not want to have my heart set on Irvine.  Irvine is turning out to be the anomaly to the norm.

Awgee, aren’t homes prices in Coto much higher than Irvine? Do you know how much median home prices in Coto has come down since 2006 compared to Irvine? I am almost convinced this is the bottom for Irvine home prices if mortgage rates stay at 5% for the next 10 years which will not happen. There is absolutely no way Irvine real estate can not go down once we see higher mortgage rates and 15% unemployment rates in Irvine which i see happening between 2010 - 2012. In the worst case scenario, if you are holding physical gold… Irvine real estate will depreciate atleast 50% against the yellow metal. You will beat out the foreign Korean and Chinese who are buying the Irvine goods with their won and yuan.

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:44 AM

awgee - 18 November 2009 07:36 AM

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:30 AM

sad.machine - 17 November 2009 10:40 AM

I know initially it was at 2011

Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?

Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease?  What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?

Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past a bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip.  The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.

Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.

You are wrong again.  Check the numbers.

Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)

You are not wrong about Irvine.  Your are wrong that “Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.”

PANDA - 18 November 2009 11:31 AM

awgee - 17 November 2009 06:51 PM

I dunno.  If I was looking for a bottom, I would not want to have my heart set on Irvine.  Irvine is turning out to be the anomaly to the norm.

Awgee, aren’t homes prices in Coto much higher than Irvine? Do you know how much median home prices in Coto has come down since 2006 compared to Irvine? I am almost convinced this is the bottom for Irvine home prices if mortgage rates stay at 5% for the next 10 years which will not happen. There is absolutely no way Irvine real estate can not go down once we see higher mortgage rates and 15% unemployment rates in Irvine which i see happening between 2010 - 2012. In the worst case scenario, if you are holding physical gold… Irvine real estate will depreciate atleast 50% against the yellow metal. You will beat out the foreign Korean and Chinese who are buying the Irvine goods with their won and yuan.

For a comparable square footage home with comparable lot area, I would guess that Irvine may be a bit more expensive.  But, there are some areas of Irvine which are more expensive than others, yes?  Price in Coto have declined much more than prices in Irvine.  Irvine is anomaly, and of course there are going to be some exceptions to the norm.  Although I think prices will continue to fall in nominal dollars, I tend to think the time is close when re prices will only continue to fall in real dollars.

awgee - 18 November 2009 02:50 PM

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:44 AM

awgee - 18 November 2009 07:36 AM

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:30 AM

sad.machine - 17 November 2009 10:40 AM

I know initially it was at 2011

Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?

Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease?  What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?

Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past a bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip.  The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.

Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.

You are wrong again.  Check the numbers.

Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)

You are not wrong about Irvine.  Your are wrong that “Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.”

Awgee, can you explain? Is Irvine the only area where home prices are down 10% from the peak compared to the rest of Orange County? Even the Irvine writer for OCRegister, Erika Chalvez just bought a home in Orange instead of Irvine. Did she also throw in the towel? Did she settle for a chevrolet? What gives? I read her stuff daily and it is not the same.

Sad Panda.

awgee - 18 November 2009 02:54 PM

PANDA - 18 November 2009 11:31 AM

awgee - 17 November 2009 06:51 PM

I dunno.  If I was looking for a bottom, I would not want to have my heart set on Irvine.  Irvine is turning out to be the anomaly to the norm.

Awgee, aren’t homes prices in Coto much higher than Irvine? Do you know how much median home prices in Coto has come down since 2006 compared to Irvine? I am almost convinced this is the bottom for Irvine home prices if mortgage rates stay at 5% for the next 10 years which will not happen. There is absolutely no way Irvine real estate can not go down once we see higher mortgage rates and 15% unemployment rates in Irvine which i see happening between 2010 - 2012. In the worst case scenario, if you are holding physical gold… Irvine real estate will depreciate atleast 50% against the yellow metal. You will beat out the foreign Korean and Chinese who are buying the Irvine goods with their won and yuan.

For a comparable square footage home with comparable lot area, I would guess that Irvine may be a bit more expensive.  But, there are some areas of Irvine which are more expensive than others, yes?  Price in Coto have declined much more than prices in Irvine.  Irvine is anomaly, and of course there are going to be some exceptions to the norm.  Although I think prices will continue to fall in nominal dollars, I tend to think the time is close when re prices will only continue to fall in real dollars.

Awww Awgee. Dont’ say that. You are the biggest housing bear on IHB we all look up to. Please tell me that $575k median is the not bottom for Irvine. Please tell me it ain’t so.

PANDA - 18 November 2009 03:00 PM

awgee - 18 November 2009 02:50 PM

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:44 AM

awgee - 18 November 2009 07:36 AM

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:30 AM

sad.machine - 17 November 2009 10:40 AM

I know initially it was at 2011

Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?

Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease?  What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?

Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past a bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip.  The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.

Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.

You are wrong again.  Check the numbers.

Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)

You are not wrong about Irvine.  Your are wrong that “Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.”

Awgee, can you explain? Is Irvine the only area where home prices are down 10% from the peak compared to the rest of Orange County? Even the Irvine writer for OCRegister, Erika Chalvez just bought a home in Orange instead of Irvine. What gives? I read her stuff daily.

Prices in Coto are down a minimium of 30% and much more for some homes.
The only explanation I have for Irvine is that the FCBs and other cash buyers want to live in Irvine because of the schools and a feeling of community.  I did not think the FCBs were any more numerous than previous years or would have any more effect than previously, but it appears I was wrong. I still think that just as in previous So Cal real estate down turns, the FCBs are going to get their clocks cleaned along with anyone else buying now who thinks that the bottom is in and is using that idea for a reason to buy.  This is not the first time FCBs have bought supposedly depressed So Cal real estate and it did not turn out well for them last time. Check out what happened to the Japanese who bought LA real estate in the 90’s, (or was it the 80’s)?.  It kinda cracks me up that folks think this is all somehow new.  What do you think?

Soylent Green may know more about this and comment about it, but as I watch every sale in Coto, it appears that no one can buy a home with a loan of more than $750,000 without at least 30% down.  This, along with huge equity losses seems to have taken a huge toll on the move up buyer.

PANDA - 18 November 2009 11:31 AM

awgee - 17 November 2009 06:51 PM

I dunno.  If I was looking for a bottom, I would not want to have my heart set on Irvine.  Irvine is turning out to be the anomaly to the norm.

Awgee, aren’t homes prices in Coto much higher than Irvine? Do you know how much median home prices in Coto has come down since 2006 compared to Irvine? I am almost convinced this is the bottom for Irvine home prices if mortgage rates stay at 5% for the next 10 years which will not happen. There is absolutely no way Irvine real estate can not go down once we see higher mortgage rates and 15% unemployment rates in Irvine which i see happening between 2010 - 2012. In the worst case scenario, if you are holding physical gold… Irvine real estate will depreciate atleast 50% against the yellow metal. You will beat out the foreign Korean and Chinese who are buying the Irvine goods with their won and yuan.

golds going down like a korean hooker on nicholas cage

Sad. very sad. Can’t you just say… “Hey Panda, I think gold is headed down from here and provide your reasons?” Yo mamma needs to clean your mouth with some soap. I miss Newportskipper when I see a waste-of-an-avitar like sad.

awgee - 18 November 2009 03:17 PM

PANDA - 18 November 2009 03:00 PM

awgee - 18 November 2009 02:50 PM

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:44 AM

awgee - 18 November 2009 07:36 AM

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:30 AM

sad.machine - 17 November 2009 10:40 AM

I know initially it was at 2011

Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?

Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease?  What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?

Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past a bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip.  The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.

Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.

You are wrong again.  Check the numbers.

Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)

You are not wrong about Irvine.  Your are wrong that “Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.”

Awgee, can you explain? Is Irvine the only area where home prices are down 10% from the peak compared to the rest of Orange County? Even the Irvine writer for OCRegister, Erika Chalvez just bought a home in Orange instead of Irvine. What gives? I read her stuff daily.

Prices in Coto are down a minimium of 30% and much more for some homes.
The only explanation I have for Irvine is that the FCBs and other cash buyers want to live in Irvine because of the schools and a feeling of community.  I did not think the FCBs were any more numerous than previous years or would have any more effect than previously, but it appears I was wrong. I still think that just as in previous So Cal real estate down turns, the FCBs are going to get their clocks cleaned along with anyone else buying now who thinks that the bottom is in and is using that idea for a reason to buy.  This is not the first time FCBs have bought supposedly depressed So Cal real estate and it did not turn out well for them last time. Check out what happened to the Japanese who bought LA real estate in the 90’s, (or was it the 80’s)?.  It kinda cracks me up that folks think this is all somehow new.  What do you think?

 

 

Soylent Green may know more about this and comment about it, but as I watch every sale in Coto, it appears that no one can buy a home with a loan of more than $750,000 without at least 30% down.  This, along with huge equity losses seems to have taken a huge toll on the move up buyer.

I heard that some parents moved to Irvine because the gifted programs in their school districts were shut due to budget cuts, so they moved to Irvine.

awgee - 18 November 2009 02:50 PM

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:44 AM

awgee - 18 November 2009 07:36 AM

Geotpf - 18 November 2009 07:30 AM

sad.machine - 17 November 2009 10:40 AM

I know initially it was at 2011

Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?

Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease?  What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?

Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past a bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip.  The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.

Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.

You are wrong again.  Check the numbers.

Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)

You are not wrong about Irvine.  Your are wrong that “Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.”

Most, if not all, markets in SoCal are either recovering or are flat.  More expensive areas like Irvine bottomed first, but pretty much all have bottomed.  Clicking around, I couldn’t find one that was still falling.

PANDA - 18 November 2009 03:00 PM

Awgee, can you explain? Is Irvine the only area where home prices are down 10% from the peak compared to the rest of Orange County? Even the Irvine writer for OCRegister, Erika Chalvez just bought a home in Orange instead of Irvine. Did she also throw in the towel? Did she settle for a chevrolet? What gives? I read her stuff daily and it is not the same.

Sad Panda.

May be Erica bought one of the quaint cottages in Old Town Orange where the California Room correctly positioned is at the front of the house. I would be terribly disappointed had she bought in other places being a specialist in housing. No master chef want to eat hamburgers produced in an assembly line.