Is it a referendum on Obama, on the Democrats, or just local political battles?

Republicans won big in Virginia for Governor, Lt. Governor, and AG.

The Republican has a big lead in New Jersey…

NBC just called New Jersey for the Republican candidate Chris Christie

what about that upstate ny congress race where sarah pallin drove out the republican candidate?

freedomCM - 03 November 2009 07:18 PM

what about that upstate ny congress race where sarah pallin drove out the republican candidate?

And that candidate threw all of her support to the Democrat as she departed.

Real Clear Politics shows a 5% difference, but no one has called it yet.

Hoffman!!! Come on!!!

Fox and NY Times are calling Owens as the winner.

Good, that’ll teach the GOP to not run primaries.

Talk about being overly optimistic.

President = Democrat
House = Democrat
Senate = Democrat
Governor = Democrat 26/24

I think that Upstate NY House seat went Blue last night too.
Maybe the GOP needs to get Sarah Palin out to help drum up some more votes this next election cycle.

And you may want to look at the turnout last night.  VERY WEAK.

bltserv - 04 November 2009 07:39 AM

Talk about being overly optimistic.

President = Democrat
House = Democrat
Senate = Democrat
Governor = Democrat 26/24

I think that Upstate NY House seat went Blue last night too.
Maybe the GOP needs to get Sarah Palin out to help drum up some more votes this next election cycle.

And you may want to look at the turnout last night.  VERY WEAK.

By 2012 P and G, and possible S and H will all be Republican. I think bumpsticker redux will be 2012 - The End of an Error. it will be a combination of 1980 and 1994. U.S. Politics is fought in the moderate middle, and that middle is getting crushed economically right now.

Hope springs eternal I guess.  CW sounds like all the Gore supporters in 2000 - except the Dems were (then) better organized and less splintered than the GOP (is) right now.

And, IMO, this election doesn’t mean shit.  The next one will mean slightly more, but not much.

The Democrats lost the independents in the last 12 months. That trumps everything else because core voters on either side cannot win elections by themselves. Turnout was less than last year, young people didn’t vote in the same numbers they did last year, minorities didn’t turnout as much as last year, but that’s all statistically normal. What is different is the trend of independent votes. It means that Obama and the Democrats have hard choices to make if they want to reverse that trend. It was not a meaningless election… New Jersey and Virgina went for the Democrats in huge numbers last year, and the exit polls show that it is domestic policies related to taxes, jobs, and economic issues swung the independent votes to the right. I don’t see how you can spin that into being anything but a referendum on the policies of the party and politicians in power. People like Obama, but they don’t like what he and his party are doing in response to the economic problems and if they keep it up, they are going to get gridlock in 2010.

But it’s not like the DNC didn’t expect this, which is why they were pushing so fast and hard for Universal Health Care and Climate legislation and the StimPak. It becomes infinitely harder to convince moderate Democrats, those that won traditionally Republican seats in 2006 and 2008, that a vote for those programs doesn’t end their political careers. Either Obama and the Dems mard a hard right turn in time to save the 2010 cycle, or they are going to cripple Obama’s ability to pass his agenda. The independents, the people’s who votes determine the course of elections, aren’t onboard with Obama anymore.

One more observation, with regards to NY23: the local GOP chose a candidate they though could win, a RINO, and were overruled by a vocal constituency that not only got that candidate to drop out on the eve of the election, but got someone who was a complete unknown to 46% in 30 days… THIRTY DAYS! You can call it a defeat for Republicans, but it’s a victory for conservatives and a victory for the people over the political machine. Add the votes for Dede Scozzafava to Hoffman’s and the Republicans would have retained that seat. This is why we need primaries and not committee selections. Had a primary been called, Scozzafava would never had been on the ticket and the Republicans would have held that seat. The message for the GOP: the days of top down party rule are going to end, either by force or by defection… your choice.

My conservative friends are acting like its the fall of the Roman Empire
or the death of Fidel Castro.

After 8 Years of Bush. And one of Obama. I am going to be a little patient with the new guy.

I think the fact that Marijuana is becoming legal in more States is a bigger news item personally.

Looks like Nude is ready to throw a big party. Its ok Buddy. Keep moving those deck chairs around on the
Titanic. Your almost a mile underwater and your still thinking your GOP ship has a chance.

Nude - 04 November 2009 12:48 PM

The independents, the people’s who votes determine the course of elections, aren’t onboard with Obama anymore.

If the GOP keeps up with their infighting this may not hold true anymore. I’m just waiting for Palin to run as a 3rd party candidate ...

green_cactus - 04 November 2009 01:40 PM

Nude - 04 November 2009 12:48 PM

The independents, the people’s who votes determine the course of elections, aren’t onboard with Obama anymore.

If the GOP keeps up with their infighting this may not hold true anymore. I’m just waiting for Palin to run as a 3rd party candidate ...

Okay, I’ll bite… what infighting? Aside from NY23, where are you seeing infighting costing Republicans an election? And in what scenario does Sarah Palin run as a 3rd party candidate… and for which office?

As long as the perception that this guy is the leading spokesperson for the true GOP conservative cause.
And Sarah Palin is out there securing the base. Everything looks good.

Nude - 04 November 2009 01:58 PM

green_cactus - 04 November 2009 01:40 PM

Nude - 04 November 2009 12:48 PM

The independents, the people’s who votes determine the course of elections, aren’t onboard with Obama anymore.

If the GOP keeps up with their infighting this may not hold true anymore. I’m just waiting for Palin to run as a 3rd party candidate ...

Okay, I’ll bite… what infighting? Aside from NY23, where are you seeing infighting costing Republicans an election? And in what scenario does Sarah Palin run as a 3rd party candidate… and for which office?

Marco Rubio vs. House Speaker Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida for one. Crist is labeled as a “squishy moderate who can’t be trusted” - he is being derided for accepting stimulus funds and embracing Obama. Rubio may get wild support from the conservative base, but I just don’t see how he has a broader appeal among independents.

bltserv - 04 November 2009 03:30 PM

As long as the perception that this guy is the leading spokesperson for the true GOP conservative cause.
And Sarah Palin is out there securing the base. Everything looks good.

But the “Rush is the leader of the Republicans” theme has been played all year.  Palin is even more polarizing than she was in 2008.  And everyone knows conservatives have gotten too angry and are turning people off.  Yet there was a huge shift of independents towards Republicans last night.

Something in your formula seems off. 

Not that I think any of this matters.  The next downturn in the economy is going to turn Obama into Hoover.  His only hope is to keep extending and pretending past 2012.  How long can the government, the Fed, and Wall Street prop up a fake recovery?  Only time will tell.

green_cactus - 04 November 2009 03:37 PM

Nude - 04 November 2009 01:58 PM

green_cactus - 04 November 2009 01:40 PM

Nude - 04 November 2009 12:48 PM

The independents, the people’s who votes determine the course of elections, aren’t onboard with Obama anymore.

If the GOP keeps up with their infighting this may not hold true anymore. I’m just waiting for Palin to run as a 3rd party candidate ...

Okay, I’ll bite… what infighting? Aside from NY23, where are you seeing infighting costing Republicans an election? And in what scenario does Sarah Palin run as a 3rd party candidate… and for which office?

Marco Rubio vs. House Speaker Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida for one. Crist is labeled as a “squishy moderate who can’t be trusted” - he is being derided for accepting stimulus funds and embracing Obama. Rubio may get wild support from the conservative base, but I just don’t see how he has a broader appeal among independents.

This is the beauty of the primary system, don’t you think? Rubio and Crist, fighting for the right to run… yeah, I love that. Here’s the thing, and it’s an important point: someone with extreme left or right credentials can run to the center during the general election because the base is already onboard. They don’t need to prove anything to secure that portion of the vote, which gives them freedom to move to the center when running in the general election, which is exactly what Obama did from Denver forward to the election. If rubio wins, his conservative support is locked in and he can campaign on more central issues. In contrast, if Crist wins, he has to convince the conservatives AND the independents/moderates to vote for him… that strategy failed McCain miserably in the general. It also failed Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton, who were both rejected for being too much like the other party.

Politically speaking, the infighting serves us well by culling the weaker candidates and forcing the people to choose sides. Sure, it has the potential to boomerang in the General election if something truly lurid is revealed, but history shows that independents tend to ignore the mud and focus on the issues.

Besides, the GOP is already out of power, so what do the Conservatives have to lose by going on the offensive to wrest control away from the blue-bloods?

Nude - 04 November 2009 04:16 PM

green_cactus - 04 November 2009 03:37 PM

Nude - 04 November 2009 01:58 PM

green_cactus - 04 November 2009 01:40 PM

Nude - 04 November 2009 12:48 PM

The independents, the people’s who votes determine the course of elections, aren’t onboard with Obama anymore.

If the GOP keeps up with their infighting this may not hold true anymore. I’m just waiting for Palin to run as a 3rd party candidate ...

Okay, I’ll bite… what infighting? Aside from NY23, where are you seeing infighting costing Republicans an election? And in what scenario does Sarah Palin run as a 3rd party candidate… and for which office?

Marco Rubio vs. House Speaker Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida for one. Crist is labeled as a “squishy moderate who can’t be trusted” - he is being derided for accepting stimulus funds and embracing Obama. Rubio may get wild support from the conservative base, but I just don’t see how he has a broader appeal among independents.

This is the beauty of the primary system, don’t you think? Rubio and Crist, fighting for the right to run… yeah, I love that. Here’s the thing, and it’s an important point: someone with extreme left or right credentials can run to the center during the general election because the base is already onboard. They don’t need to prove anything to secure that portion of the vote, which gives them freedom to move to the center when running in the general election, which is exactly what Obama did from Denver forward to the election. If rubio wins, his conservative support is locked in and he can campaign on more central issues. In contrast, if Crist wins, he has to convince the conservatives AND the independents/moderates to vote for him… that strategy failed McCain miserably in the general. It also failed Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton, who were both rejected for being too much like the other party.

Politically speaking, the infighting serves us well by culling the weaker candidates and forcing the people to choose sides. Sure, it has the potential to boomerang in the General election if something truly lurid is revealed, but history shows that independents tend to ignore the mud and focus on the issues.

Besides, the GOP is already out of power, so what do the Conservatives have to lose by going on the offensive to wrest control away from the blue-bloods?

Nothing against primaries and the right of a party to nominate their wingnut candidate. However, if they are too far from the center I do not see them becoming viable to independents. Especially, if there is a 3rd party candidate to undermine their change of heart to appeal to the other side.

Wasn’t McDonnell too far right for purple Virginia?  The Washington Post sure tried their best to highlight his college thesis which espoused ideas that even today’s conservatives wouldn’t dare touch.  I think the whole Deeds campaign was pretty much “McDonnell is a crazy freaky conservative!!!”  Yet he won 66% of independents.

green_cactus - 04 November 2009 03:37 PM

Nude - 04 November 2009 01:58 PM

green_cactus - 04 November 2009 01:40 PM

Nude - 04 November 2009 12:48 PM

The independents, the people’s who votes determine the course of elections, aren’t onboard with Obama anymore.

If the GOP keeps up with their infighting this may not hold true anymore. I’m just waiting for Palin to run as a 3rd party candidate ...

Okay, I’ll bite… what infighting? Aside from NY23, where are you seeing infighting costing Republicans an election? And in what scenario does Sarah Palin run as a 3rd party candidate… and for which office?

Marco Rubio vs. House Speaker Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida for one. Crist is labeled by as a closeted gay “squishy moderate who can’t be trusted” - he is being derided for accepting stimulus funds and embracing Obama. Rubio may get wild support from the conservative base, but I just don’t see how he has a broader appeal among independents.

Fixed that for you.  The more these allegations spread, the further the Republican base will distance itself from Crist.

Sunshine - 04 November 2009 06:37 PM

green_cactus - 04 November 2009 01:40 PM

Marco Rubio vs. House Speaker Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida for one. Crist is labeled by as a closeted gay “squishy moderate who can’t be trusted” - he is being derided for accepting stimulus funds and embracing Obama. Rubio may get wild support from the conservative base, but I just don’t see how he has a broader appeal among independents.

Fixed that for you.  The more these allegations spread, the further the Republican base will distance itself from Crist.

Crist was viable right up until he decided to appoint a buddy to keep the Senate seat warm for him. It’s that kind of arrogance that got the GOP booted out of power and if we can avoid empowering people like that by defeating them in the primary, then I’m sure every skeleton is going to be taken out for a walk along the way. I’d rather see the seat go to a Democrat than put another patrician, establishment-type into office. They align themselves with Conservatives for the small government and the low taxes but they demand total deregulation and financial control in return and then run to the Democrats for bailouts.

I’m telling you, this isn’t infighting or a war within the party, it’s housecleaning. Neoconservatives and Ivy League RINOs are going to get a wake up call in the next few days, in the form of primary challenges and Conservative ultimatums. Forget about Sarah Palin, she’s in it for the attention and the free travel provided by speaking engagements, not to mention the money. The people to watch for are the people like Hoffman, McDonnell, Jindal, and Rubio. If jobs don’t improve, if the economy doesn’t recover, if the Dems try to force another StimPak through Congress without any clear evidence that the last one is succeeding in making things better… you can count on those people to start making the case for a Conservative majority in both houses.

Oxtail - 04 November 2009 05:55 PM

Wasn’t McDonnell too far right for purple Virginia?  The Washington Post sure tried their best to highlight his college thesis which espoused ideas that even today’s conservatives wouldn’t dare touch.  I think the whole Deeds campaign was pretty much “McDonnell is a crazy freaky conservative!!!”  Yet he won 66% of independents.

Voter turn out was the lowest in 40 years. Although independents swung right, the demographics of the voting population also changed (as compared to who turned the state purple). This may not be the best example to predict voting patterns in the future. I’m not denying that independents are looking for a new direction - there definitely is some disillusion with Obama. I just don’t see some uber-conservative appealing to the middle ground in the next presidential election. Since the economy is the main focus for most voters, I can definitely see someone who is fiscally conservative but socially moderate gaining a lot of ground.

I don’t think there are any fiscally conservative, socially moderate politicians left, unfortunately.

Nude - 05 November 2009 01:03 AM

I’m telling you, this isn’t infighting or a war within the party, it’s housecleaning.

I guess it depends on who’s house you think it is.