awgee - 22 October 2009 01:12 PM

Could you or did you call better?  That is not an attack.  Just honestly, did you call it any better?  I have contended all along that one does not need to call the top or bottom, just ride the overall trend.  We make our assessment of top or bottom for the purposes of timing, but in the end it is our committment to what we know and don’t know that keeps up in the game or changes our mind.  You don’t think Panda has done better than most, especially considering that people were saying that he was completely ignorant?  His calls will obviously not be perfect, but the folks who attacked him were wrong.

We went all cash in July, so I’ve missed the rest of the rally. But I also (as Oscar) posted this last December:

Oscar - 04 December 2008 08:34 PM

I suspect that more than a few people are waiting/hoping/counting on Obama to perform a miracle and turn things around over night. I think when it becomes clear that not even he has the power to reverse this, we will see the kind of panic and capitulation in the general population that hasn’t really materialized yet.

It’s for this reason that I think anyone calling a bottom is overly optimistic. Yes, the markets have fallen. But how much of that is a result of a recession and how much of it is the result of the massive amount of hedge fund redemptions? I know IrvineRenter has mentiond that this kind of negativity is evidence that we are near the bottom based on the contra-indications of general sentiment (buy when others are fearful, etc.), but I don’t see actual panic and resignation. What I see is the reduction in spending based on lack of MEW and rising unemployment combined with a reduction in consumer credit lines. But that isn’t a reduction in spending based on fear and panic. Among the people I talk with, most are taking a “wait-and-see” attitude because the effects of the downturn are only just now affecting them in areas other than house value. Again, I suspect that they are holding out hope that Obama has some magic bullet that will turn the clock back to 2006 and put us back on the path of endless prosperity. Once reality sets in, I think the general sentiment will finally reach the kind of negative levels that will result in a solid bottom.

Oscar - 17 December 2008 02:57 AM

Primarily this is 401(k) money that won’t be used for another 30-40 years.

There are not a lot of choices offered for the 401(k) but everything was moved from the various mutual funds into a moneymarket fund in 11/07 and has been sitting there ever since. In hindsight this looks like brilliance considering how much of the equity loss was avoided, but it was the result of nothing more than a vague feeling that we wouldn’t be seeing 14k on the DOW again for a while. But with today’s Fed action and the reactions in the USD index and the Gold futures, I want to move everything, except the $5k the government has guaranteed, out of the MMF. I just don’t quite know where to allocate the money yet.

Like I said before, equities look attractive. I just don’t have the time to babysit a bunch of options in order to minimize my risk. I define “safe” as “it’s not going to disappear while I’m still putting in the order to get out”.

I’m staying in cash now. I don’t have clue where the market is going, but I know that I don’t understand what is driving it, so I am sitting on the sidelines for now. I’m not dissing Panda’s successes, I only took issue with your assessment because he was demonstrably wrong. I don’t crow my successes or my failures because I’m not a day trader and I don’t think anyone really cares, so there is nothing showing a “call” other than my feeling that bottom was a ways off.

BondTrader - 22 October 2009 04:39 PM

It could be that the buying power has now exhausted itself. In a very short
time span, the Dow lost 170 points yesterday (the intraday high was 10,119),
to close at 9,949, and the S&P 500 hit a new intraday high of 1,101, but closed
at 1,081. To be sure, there is plenty of technical support out there still, and the
S&P 500 would have to dive all the way down to 1,040 to break the trendline from
the March low. I don’t expect this to develop into a 30%+ correction yet,
but more like a 5-6% pullback. 1100 will be a very tough resistance for S&P to get
through.

I sort of agree BT. I see 2 scenarios unfolding here. Scenario 1: we crash 30% now from current levels, or Scenario 2: we have 5-10% pull back into November and a final big rally into Dec/Jan, possiby 11k and higher and then the big crash in January. I guess what you are trying to say is the first scenario is unlikely. My timing might be off on 750 S&P by Dec 31st, 2009… but I know we will eventually get there. If Scenario 2 unfolds, the crash will be more severe and MoreKaos will win the S&P500; 12/31/09 Prediction game. Bummer.

PANDA - 22 October 2009 06:26 PM

I sort of agree BT. I see 2 scenarios unfolding here. Scenario 1: we crash 30% now from current levels, or Scenario 2: we have 5-10% pull back into November and a final big rally into Dec/Jan, possiby 11k and higher and then the big crash in January. I guess what you are trying to say is the first scenario is unlikely. My timing might be off on 750 S&P by Dec 31st, 2009… but I know we will eventually get there. If Scenario 2 unfolds, the crash will be more severe and MoreKaos will win the S&P500; 12/31/09 Prediction game.

Call me cynical, but I don’t think we’ll see a drop of any magnitude until the Health Care bill gets passed or gets rejected. Anything that gives ammunition to the opposition of Big Government will be used to attack Health Care reform, and a crashing market with do just that, since the StimPak was supposed to prevent that. So, there is my “call” on the timing of the crash… after, not before the vote.

awgee - 22 October 2009 01:12 PM

Nude - 22 October 2009 06:55 AM

awgee - 22 October 2009 06:11 AM

Nude - 22 October 2009 01:41 AM

awgee - 22 October 2009 01:11 AM

PANDA - 22 October 2009 12:55 AM

Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.

It cracks me up.  There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets.  It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.

 

Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?

Wait…what? Are you kidding me? His bottom call was off by almost a whole quarter, and he missed more calls along the way than Jim Kramer.

From the same thread:

PANDA - 05 December 2008 11:20 PM

blackvault_cm - 05 December 2008 11:02 PM

PANDA - 05 December 2008 10:44 PM

DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report…

Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.

So in your view, will never hit 8500 again.  Am I right?  Meaning the bottom has come and gone.  Now we go up?

Blackvault, long term i can see DOW getting down to 4,000 - 6000 between 2011 - 2013. My plan is to unload both of my real estate by 2009 - 2010, and start buying like crazy in Irvine between 2011 - 2013. I see a short term dead cat bounce rally where 7500 was our short-term bottom. I can also see the real estate sales picking up first quarter 2009 and prolonging the decline by government intervention and low mortgage rates. I think that the DOW is going to rally into 2009, but will not rally above the our last 14,000 DOW high. Long term, the depression that I see that is going to hit our country seems to be very very serious.

Just remember my PK friend, between 2011 - 2013…. Cash is KING…. Gold is GOD.

Now… I’ll give him credit for the call on prolonging the RE decline and for calling a rally in 2009, but he called the bottom 4 months early and whiffed on everything in between.

You are tough.  Especially when folks said he did not know anything.  He called a bottom.  He called a 10k.  He called gold going up when folks said he did not know what he was talking about.
Hat tip to you, Panda.  You did better than I thought you would, and better than I could.

I am tough, thanks. He missed the bottom, by 2,000 points and ~4 months. I gave him credit for the 10k call, too. And his gold call has yet to come true because we’re 2 years away from his prediction.

Listen, I’m not trying to crush anyone’s success. I just took issue with your assessment of his accuracy.

Could you or did you call better?  That is not an attack.  Just honestly, did you call it any better?  I have contended all along that one does not need to call the top or bottom, just ride the overall trend.  We make our assessment of top or bottom for the purposes of timing, but in the end it is our committment to what we know and don’t know that keeps up in the game or changes our mind.  You don’t think Panda has done better than most, especially considering that people were saying that he was completely ignorant?  His calls will obviously not be perfect, but the folks who attacked him were wrong.

Awgee,

Thanks for your encouragement. I have to be honest that i was getting very nervous when gold dropped to $700/ounce last November and I remember PMing you several times back then as it was quite painful. I remember what you told me as it appeared that you were not panicking like i was. I think you said, “Panda, has the fundamentals changed in any way in regards to gold?” My answer was “No”. You said something like, “The market may react irrational in the short-term, but will always move back to its fundamentals in the long run.” If you didn’t PM me back then, i may have panicked and sold half of my gold positions, but ended up buying more gold and not selling an ounce of my positions. Awgee, Indirectly, I owe a BIG “Thank you” for the decisions i have made back then.

Below is recap around that time period in the Gold thread.

IrvineRenter - 22 October 2008 10:02 PM

graphrix - 21 October 2008 02:53 PM

morekaos - 21 October 2008 02:27 PM

$771.40 down $26.60.  Not sure where the bottom is here

Total whackage on gold right now. Haven’t heard much from Panda lately. First it is the dollar, now it is gold. It’s like double dipping in the ugly pool.

When Panda gives up and sells, then we are at the bottom.

Are you kidding me Irvine Renter??.. I am loading it up on Gold right now. I am practically completely out of the U.S. Paper Trash. It sure does feel like buying a nice SFR in Newport Coast for only $500,000. The U.S. paper trash will Crash.

I’ll give it to you for hangin in there Panda. I covered that short for a good profit but I have to say I am short it again and long the dollar (AGAIN)....Too many guys on your side of the boat lately. I like being alone.

morekaos - 24 October 2009 04:00 PM

I’ll give it to you for hangin in there Panda. I covered that short for a good profit but I have to that say I am short it again and long the dollar (AGAIN)....Too many guys on your side of the boat lately. I like being alone.

Funny that you say that morekaos. Though i believe the dollar is in for a long term decline, I see a very near term dollar rally (however nothing like the dollar rally we saw in last October). I just don’t see the dollar violating 74 right now. If it does… I say get the heck out because the floor will drop.

FWIW, dollar panic is not new.  What were folks doing in 2003?

We will be talking dollar crisis for years to come.  That is the best case scenario and one I hope for.  Nothing moves in a straight line of course, however none of you can argue the fundamentals of the dollar long term.  Short term, we are drawing lines on charts and guessing.

I am buying gold right now and knowingly might take a 20-30% haircut short term.  I will buy more while I am at the barber shop too.  Gold was out of vogue for two decades and I feel the secular bull market for gold will be for many years.  Our gov/t is pedal to the metal drunk driving and I’m getting out to take a cab.

Has anyone heard about “gold parties”?  It’s like a tupperware party but everyone shows up and sells scrap gold to the person for cash.  Oh the irony.

Raising interest rates might help the dollar short term, but the effects to our economy will further hinder the dollar after the short term boost.

Taxation is the only thing that gives the dollar value.

Let the bashing begin.

optimusprime - 14 October 2009 11:44 PM

I concur with you.

I think this market will try to squeeze another 1-2% out of this earnings season and it’s back to reality.

I am thinking a 15-20% drop in 2010.

My favorite long term name at the moment is TBT.

Good call Optimus, I also like TBT and TBF right now. Have you are already started to short the treasury bonds? There is no decay right?

PANDA - 24 October 2009 04:22 PM

morekaos - 24 October 2009 04:00 PM

I’ll give it to you for hangin in there Panda. I covered that short for a good profit but I have to that say I am short it again and long the dollar (AGAIN)....Too many guys on your side of the boat lately. I like being alone.

Funny that you say that morekaos. Though i believe the dollar is in for a long term decline, I see a very near term dollar rally (however nothing like the dollar rally we saw in last October). I just don’t see the dollar violating 74 right now. If it does… I say get the heck out because the floor will drop.

So we are 1 or 2 points away from either a rally or the floor dropping out?

Nothing points to a justified rally, nothing.  I’m not saying it won’t happen, it probably will.  If we are that close to the floor dropping out, does it make sense to have even 5% cash?

Let’s all keep in mind here all the biggest banks are out of business, are going to re-fail, and we are being told “No, they aren’t.  See these numbers?  Smile and go buy stuff, they are fine.”  Historically speaking, drastic times.  But South Coast Plaza keeps a hummin’.

matt138 - 25 October 2009 08:43 PM

PANDA - 24 October 2009 04:22 PM

morekaos - 24 October 2009 04:00 PM

I’ll give it to you for hangin in there Panda. I covered that short for a good profit but I have to that say I am short it again and long the dollar (AGAIN)....Too many guys on your side of the boat lately. I like being alone.

Funny that you say that morekaos. Though i believe the dollar is in for a long term decline, I see a very near term dollar rally (however nothing like the dollar rally we saw in last October). I just don’t see the dollar violating 74 right now. If it does… I say get the heck out because the floor will drop.

So we are 1 or 2 points away from either a rally or the floor dropping out?

Nothing points to a justified rally, nothing.  I’m not saying it won’t happen, it probably will.  If we are that close to the floor dropping out, does it make sense to have even 5% cash?

Let’s all keep in mind here all the biggest banks are out of business, are going to re-fail, and we are being told “No, they aren’t.  See these numbers?  Smile and go buy stuff, they are fine.”  Historically speaking, drastic times.  But South Coast Plaza keeps a hummin’.

Matt, normally the dollar should rise when the market crashes. Next week, If the market starts crashing, and the dollar starts to go down, instead of going up because it is so sick. Panda is going to be very scared.

November 9th, 2009

PANDA - 25 October 2009 08:46 PM

matt138 - 25 October 2009 08:43 PM

PANDA - 24 October 2009 04:22 PM

morekaos - 24 October 2009 04:00 PM

I’ll give it to you for hangin in there Panda. I covered that short for a good profit but I have to that say I am short it again and long the dollar (AGAIN)....Too many guys on your side of the boat lately. I like being alone.

Funny that you say that morekaos. Though i believe the dollar is in for a long term decline, I see a very near term dollar rally (however nothing like the dollar rally we saw in last October). I just don’t see the dollar violating 74 right now. If it does… I say get the heck out because the floor will drop.

So we are 1 or 2 points away from either a rally or the floor dropping out?

Nothing points to a justified rally, nothing.  I’m not saying it won’t happen, it probably will.  If we are that close to the floor dropping out, does it make sense to have even 5% cash?

Let’s all keep in mind here all the biggest banks are out of business, are going to re-fail, and we are being told “No, they aren’t.  See these numbers?  Smile and go buy stuff, they are fine.”  Historically speaking, drastic times.  But South Coast Plaza keeps a hummin’.

Matt, normally the dollar should rise when the market crashes. Next week, If the market starts crashing, and the dollar starts to go down, instead of going up because it is so sick. Panda is going to be very scared.

November 9th, 2009

True, but it is a short term rise due to short term demand.  People are not hedging against deflation, they are side stepping a fall in stocks.

Yes. Matt I do agree with you that the dollar wil rise in the very short term… it is time for the dollar to rise again, and for the Euro to take a breather.

Banks getting hammered today(well, a lot of things getting hammered today).  Doomers are working themselves into a frenzy.  I’m starting to doubt we’re going to be able to hit that +3% GDP number this week.

Oxtail - 26 October 2009 04:41 PM

Banks getting hammered today(well, a lot of things getting hammered today).  Doomers are working themselves into a frenzy.  I’m starting to doubt we’re going to be able to hit that +3% GDP number this week.

If we’d go buy some escalades on 22s that would bump us up to 3%.  It’s all good!

PANDA - 25 October 2009 10:58 PM

Yes. Matt I do agree with you that the dollar wil rise in the very short term… it is time for the dollar to rise again, and for the Euro to take a breather.

Okay, Panda called it.

awgee - 17 October 2009 05:30 AM

You can pick and choose all you want to convince yourself.
Bottom line, the dollar is toast.  And if you are not prepared you will lose.

Can you tell us how to “prepare”.  I seriously want to know - the last tumble totally sucked.

gypsyuma - 27 October 2009 12:22 AM

awgee - 17 October 2009 05:30 AM

You can pick and choose all you want to convince yourself.
Bottom line, the dollar is toast.  And if you are not prepared you will lose.

Can you tell us how to “prepare”.  I seriously want to know - the last tumble totally sucked.

Yes, I agree 100% that it sucked. I should of moved my savings to AUD back when it was at 63 cents and now it’s at 92. I lost big and now I am contemplating staying in the US a few more years.

AUdude - 27 October 2009 02:55 AM

gypsyuma - 27 October 2009 12:22 AM

awgee - 17 October 2009 05:30 AM

You can pick and choose all you want to convince yourself.
Bottom line, the dollar is toast.  And if you are not prepared you will lose.

Can you tell us how to “prepare”.  I seriously want to know - the last tumble totally sucked.

Yes, I agree 100% that it sucked. I should of moved my savings to AUD back when it was at 63 cents and now it’s at 92. I lost big and now I am contemplating staying in the US a few more years.

gold

gypsyuma - 27 October 2009 12:22 AM

awgee - 17 October 2009 05:30 AM

You can pick and choose all you want to convince yourself.
Bottom line, the dollar is toast.  And if you are not prepared you will lose.

Can you tell us how to “prepare”.  I seriously want to know - the last tumble totally sucked.

You need to get your hands on some of these babies.

PANDA - 27 October 2009 03:35 AM

gypsyuma - 27 October 2009 12:22 AM

awgee - 17 October 2009 05:30 AM

You can pick and choose all you want to convince yourself.
Bottom line, the dollar is toast.  And if you are not prepared you will lose.

Can you tell us how to “prepare”.  I seriously want to know - the last tumble totally sucked.

You need to get your hands on some of these babies.

Do they sell it at the mall?

I am only half joking - Can I buy gold at my local Bank of America?  Or is there a special place that is the best location to get it?  Didn’t it say at the beginning of this thread that the price of gold is expected to drop?  So why would I want it?  Simply because the dollar is in the shitter?

*Big sigh*  Being a grown-up is not fun.

gypsyuma,

In all seriousness you have to do your own research and not just rely on what people say on IHB. Late last year I asked the open forum if it was the right decision for me to pull as much equity out of my home (since I could not sell it and I had lot of equity in the house) and invest the proceeds, and 99% of the advice i received here was against it. Suprisingly, Graphrix was one of the guys who didn’t give me a red flag. I did my own research and came up with the concusion that the U.S. dollar today will be much more valuable to me now than it will in 3-4 years. I have borrowed as much money as I possibly can from my house at a very low rate and I have done quite well with the arbritrage since March. I feel very confident now that i have made the right decision.

Gold has risen almost 4 times from $281 in 2001 until now at $1000. Some people find Gold prices over valued at these prices, fair valued, and under valued. I’ve mentioned before that i think buying gold now is like buying a Woodbury home in 2004/2005. Awgee’s opinion may be different from mine. If you invest $100,000 in gold, can you stomach the short term loss when your investment drops to $70,000 because it certainly can happen just like it did back in October. Just make sure that you do your full due diligence and your own research before making any major moves.

Panda’s .02 cents

PANDA - 27 October 2009 04:15 AM

gypsyuma,

In all seriousness you have to do your own research and not just rely on what people say on IHB. Late last year I asked the open forum if it was the right decision for me to pull as much equity out of my home (since I could not sell it and I had lot of equity in the house) and invest the proceeds, and 99% of the advice i received here was against it. Suprisingly, Graphrix was one of the guys who didn’t give me a red flag. I did my own research and came up with the concusion that the U.S. dollar today will be much more valuable to me now than it will in 3-4 years. I have borrowed as much money as I possibly can from my house at a very low rate and I have done quite well with the arbritrage since March. I feel very confident now that i have made the right decision.

Gold has risen almost 4 times from $281 in 2001 until now at $1000. Some people find Gold prices over valued at these prices, fair valued, and under valued. I’ve mentioned before that i think buying gold now is like buying a Woodbury home in 2004/2005. Awgee’s opinion may be different from mine. If you invest $100,000 in gold, can you stomach the short term loss when your investment drops to $70,000 because it certainly can happen just like it did back in October. Just make sure that you do your full due diligence and your own research before making any major moves.

Panda’s .02 cents

Is the borrowed equity fixed rate debt?

Put phantom equity to work and let your government melt the debt away -  there are risks but I feel it’s a good play.  Where did you put the money?

October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.

December 31th, 2009

Graphrix - 950
Novas - 951
Panda - 750
Bondtrader - 1020
Awgee - 1085
MoreKaos- 1150
IHO - 888

Panda, I showed my parents those gold coins, they told me it’s actually not that easy to buy those in China since it’s considered a collector’s item, and those will appreciate faster than regular “paper gold”. But if you really want to pick up a couple sets, let me know.