Panda, awhile back were there not quite a few folks in here ganging up on you for buying gold and saying you did not know anything about investing? For someone who does not know anything, you seem to have been right, and they were wrong.
Gold has had a 55% run-up in two years. But 90% of that run had already happened from Aug 07-Mar 08. The rest after that was all volatility due to liquidity issues in all markets.
Imho those who really saw things early with prescience acted way back in Q3 ‘07. Those that came later were just following the herd - and as gold has stuck around at 900$ for most of the last two years, I wouldn’t be screaming victory over a 5% yearly return at this point. The easy money (and boy was it easy) in gold was back in ‘07.
If someone was lucky enough to pick the bottom in gold, good for them. Though if we’ll be comparing bottoms stocks would have been just fine too.
I have no strong opinion on gold as I don’t understand it well. It’s just not clear to me how great Gold did when you take away the effects of fortunate timing. Clearly anyone who’s been investing in gold for a year or so with regular contributions has not come out ahead so far.
As close as I can tell, the Panda Challenge was started around the beginning of September of 2008. I guess I would not be saying anything if I was talking about 5%, but then I am not data mining and choosing my dates or prices. I will let the data speak for itself.
But then, maybe it is just fortunate timing.
By the way, what makes you think the folks Panda is calling on are not invested? With da real?
I am not going to tell you what my actual portfolio consists of, but if you care to see if your investing/trading ideas hold up, join the Panda Challenge.
Typing is cheap. Show us whatcha got.
No Awgee I’m not interested in a pissing contest with you, thanks - though you can be confident your one-year record is most likely much better than mine, if that is important to you. It’s not to me.
I am interested in exchanging investment principles & ideas. I couldn’t care less if somebody made 10 million in the markets if they can’t demonstrate with foolproof logic the principles behind their investments. Not implying that you don’t know what you’re doing, just that your particular virtual or real brokerage transactions and how successful they were are of absolutely no interest to me.
This is why I take issue with the “see Panda, you made money, thus you were right” attitude. Teach a man to fish and all that. If you made money but aren’t sure why, then might as well buy lottery tickets. I think Panda knows more than everybody would think. But some of us were concerned as he seemed very easy to influence, particularly from people who like to think they’ve got everything all figured out perfectly…
Panda, awhile back were there not quite a few folks in here ganging up on you for buying gold and saying you did not know anything about investing? For someone who does not know anything, you seem to have been right, and they were wrong.
Gold has had a 55% run-up in two years. But 90% of that run had already happened from Aug 07-Mar 08. The rest after that was all volatility due to liquidity issues in all markets.
Imho those who really saw things early with prescience acted way back in Q3 ‘07. Those that came later were just following the herd - and as gold has stuck around at 900$ for most of the last two years, I wouldn’t be screaming victory over a 5% yearly return at this point. The easy money (and boy was it easy) in gold was back in ‘07.
If someone was lucky enough to pick the bottom in gold, good for them. Though if we’ll be comparing bottoms stocks would have been just fine too.
I have no strong opinion on gold as I don’t understand it well. It’s just not clear to me how great Gold did when you take away the effects of fortunate timing. Clearly anyone who’s been investing in gold for a year or so with regular contributions has not come out ahead so far.
As close as I can tell, the Panda Challenge was started around the beginning of September of 2008. I guess I would not be saying anything if I was talking about 5%, but then I am not data mining and choosing my dates or prices. I will let the data speak for itself.
But then, maybe it is just fortunate timing.
By the way, what makes you think the folks Panda is calling on are not invested? With da real?
I am not going to tell you what my actual portfolio consists of, but if you care to see if your investing/trading ideas hold up, join the Panda Challenge.
Typing is cheap. Show us whatcha got.
No Awgee I’m not interested in a pissing contest with you, thanks - though you can be confident your one-year record is most likely much better than mine, if that is important to you. It’s not to me.
I am interested in exchanging investment principles & ideas. I couldn’t care less if somebody made 10 million in the markets if they can’t demonstrate with foolproof logic the principles behind their investments. Not implying that you don’t know what you’re doing, just that your particular virtual or real brokerage transactions and how successful they were are of absolutely no interest to me.
There is no foolproof logic for any investment strategy.
The pissing contest was important enough for you to put down anyone who would brag about 5%.
There is no foolproof logic for any investment strategy.
The pissing contest was important enough for you to put down anyone who would brag about 5%.
... sigh.
Yes Awgee I made this post entirely to put you & Panda down. You read it 100%.
And there is no such thing as foolproof logic so why use logic at all, right? Let me spell it out for you. If a company doubles its earnings tomorrow, and it’s sustainable, it is foolproof logic you’ll make money. You know why? Because if even if no one in the universe wants to buy the darn stock, the earnings will find your way into your pocket through dividends. You’re not dependent on the ideas of the mob. Same ideas as the cash flow real estate investor who doesn’t give a shit about home appreciation because all he needs is rents to cover his income. Yes, he’s not guaranteed to find rents or tenants, but I didn’t say foolproof investment, I said foolproof logic. Relationships.
There’s no foolproof logic in gold. There’s no cash flow. If everybody in the world buys in the theory that gold hedges inflation (even though there’s been a bunch of studies showing that gold shows no strong correlation with inflation over the long term), then good for you, you make money. But that’s just guessing which meme will become popular. It’s got nothing to do with buying assets that provide durable income. But suit yourself. Clearly you’re winning and that’s all that counts right?
Getting sidetracked here, didn’t mean to turn this into a gold bash fest. I’m interested in the arguments on gold, the ones I’ve heard just don’t pass the smell test for me. This is probably the wrong thread for this too.
Sold all domestic equities yesterday. Regardless of the technicals, I can’t imagine earnings growth is going to justify 25-30x P/Es over the next year.
Sold all domestic equities yesterday. Regardless of the technicals, I can’t imagine earnings growth is going to justify 25-30x P/Es over the next year.
It’s not. Today was the top…the way the market closed. Bye bye.
The earnings blowout was it…all the estimates were lowered to such a level it was easy to beat the EPS by 50%+ easy.
That was an interesting last 45 minutes of trading today. It looks like we’ll get to celebrate the Dow breaking 10,000 every day now!
An analyst comes out and downgrades Wells and the whole market tanks? Sure seems like the bid boys want to bring the market down a bit.
Wells is a proxy for BAC and JPM, both of whom swallowed large piles of crap when they took over Countrywide and Washington Mutual, respectively. If Wells, who took over Wachovia (and therefore Golden West), isn’t growing fundamentally, then you can only imagine what BAC is going through. It also brought to mind the call Meredith Whitney made in 2007 about Citibank and the bad run that followed. And let’s face it, most people have been watching the rally since March with a “WTF is going on?” look on their face because it just made no sense. I’m not surprised, but I was caught slightly off guard. The futures appear to have recovered so I doubt it was the start of anything.
That was an interesting last 45 minutes of trading today. It looks like we’ll get to celebrate the Dow breaking 10,000 every day now!
An analyst comes out and downgrades Wells and the whole market tanks? Sure seems like the bid boys want to bring the market down a bit.
Wells is a proxy for BAC and JPM, both of whom swallowed large piles of crap when they took over Countrywide and Washington Mutual, respectively. If Wells, who took over Wachovia (and therefore Golden West), isn’t growing fundamentally, then you can only imagine what BAC is going through. It also brought to mind the call Meredith Whitney made in 2007 about Citibank and the bad run that followed. And let’s face it, most people have been watching the rally since March with a “WTF is going on?” look on their face because it just made no sense. I’m not surprised, but I was caught slightly off guard. The futures appear to have recovered so I doubt it was the start of anything.
Bove was actually quite bullish on WFC after its earnings release this morning…then decided to do a double take and realize the earnings were based on “hedging profits”.
Reading Doug Kass earlier in the day, he was pointing this out and calling WFC earnings “garbage” more or less.
So you tag team the downgrade to Sell and leak the Pay Czar comments and the market gets blasted.
S&P500; Dec 31, 2009 prediction. It seems that we have all bases covered.
October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.
Graphrix - 950
Novas - 951
Panda - 750
Bondtrader - 1020
Awgee - 1085
MoreKaos- 1150
IHO - 888
Alright Novas, I will make an exception. You will be the last one in! Let the Games Begin
Add me to the list…I am predicting 1030 on the S&P by yr end.
Optimus… I said the list is closed bro…. Alright… dude. I’ll put you in! Are you sure you don’t want to be at 850 or something? I am getting kinda lonely here being at 750 by myself.
If you look at the steep decline of the DOW in June of 1932 it had a steep V bounce back. Same thing happened to the steep drops in the 1970s for the DOW. I believe we are close to the bottom and will see a steep V bounce back to the 10k level but will not break new highs of 14k. I also believe that the government is going to intervene in a major way.
I told all of you if you look at the stock market chart from 2002 - 2020, it will look like a BIG BUTT on the Sir-Mix-A-Lot MTV Music Video “Baby’s Got Back”
We have just finished drawing the first butt cheek as DOW was 7528 in Sept 2002, hit a peak of 14k in Oct 2007 and back down to 7552 as of today. The drawing of the second butt cheek is on its way. Right now we are right between the crack of the butt.
For some of you who are still holding U.S. stocks and contemplating of selling right now, DO NOT LOST HOPE! and PLEASE DO NOT SELL RIGHT NOW!.... ! Hold tight, I do believe we are going to have a “V” shape bounce back!!!!
C’mon DOW get back on your feet and PANDA says, “Get your butt back up to 10K”.
O me Gosh… I am now starting to sound like KRAMER.
Sold all domestic equities yesterday. Regardless of the technicals, I can’t imagine earnings growth is going to justify 25-30x P/Es over the next year.
Good job CW. I believe we are currently 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek, if not very close.
Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.
It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.
Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?
Optimus… I said the list is closed bro…. Alright… dude. I’ll put you in! Are you sure you don’t want to be at 850 or something? I am getting kinda lonely here being at 750 by myself.
Not gonna join in your game, but I did put down a decent put position last Friday on GS. April 110’s. I’m feeling a crash coming as well, but then again I’ve been wrong for months about this rally. Let’s see how the rest of October plays out.
Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.
It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.
Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?
I said as much in the “I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED” thread last week
“Posted: 24 September 2009 08:48 PM [ # 370 ]
Joined 2007-05-03 PANDA - 04 December 2008 10:00 AM
acpme - 04 December 2008 09:44 AM
if the mkt bottoms at -50% ytd and magically the equity mkts revert to their historical norms of ~10% avg returns annually, it’d take 7 yrs before the mkt is back at the level it was at the beg of 2008.
given that:
1) i’ve been spared from most of the brunt of the downturn,
2) do believe even if the mkt has bottomed, the ride up is going to be as volatile as the ride down,
3) don’t believe in magic,
i’m perfectly happy sitting this one out for a while even if it means missing a large chunk of the upturn.
(having said all that, i dont think it’ll take 7 yrs to get back to dow 14k/spx 1500)
acpme,
I am in the in the opinion that we will see a huge dead cat bounce rally going into first quarter of 2009. I do see DOW hitting 11k - 12k into next year, but not making new highs above 14k.
Wow!! Panda may have gotten it right. I tip my hat”
Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.
It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.
Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?
Wait…what? Are you kidding me? His bottom call was off by almost a whole quarter, and he missed more calls along the way than Jim Kramer.
DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report…
Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.
So in your view, will never hit 8500 again. Am I right? Meaning the bottom has come and gone. Now we go up?
Blackvault, long term i can see DOW getting down to 4,000 - 6000 between 2011 - 2013. My plan is to unload both of my real estate by 2009 - 2010, and start buying like crazy in Irvine between 2011 - 2013. I see a short term dead cat bounce rally where 7500 was our short-term bottom. I can also see the real estate sales picking up first quarter 2009 and prolonging the decline by government intervention and low mortgage rates. I think that the DOW is going to rally into 2009, but will not rally above the our last 14,000 DOW high. Long term, the depression that I see that is going to hit our country seems to be very very serious.
Just remember my PK friend, between 2011 - 2013…. Cash is KING…. Gold is GOD.
Now… I’ll give him credit for the call on prolonging the RE decline and for calling a rally in 2009, but he called the bottom 4 months early and whiffed on everything in between.
You are absolutely correct Nude. I thought the bottom of the DOW would be at the same level as the bottom in 2002 around 7500. I never thought the bottom of the DOW would get down to 6500 like it did in March, 2009. You see i am human, not a fortune cookie. If i could clearly predict the future of stock movements so perfectly…. I would be living in Newport Coast, not in Des Plaines, IL.
I will say this with confidence, there will be four financial matters that will make headlines in CNBC and the papers in the coming few years. 1) Continual shrinking of home equity 2) inflation 3) gold and silver 4) rising interest rates.
Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.
It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.
Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?
Wait…what? Are you kidding me? His bottom call was off by almost a whole quarter, and he missed more calls along the way than Jim Kramer.
DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report…
Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.
So in your view, will never hit 8500 again. Am I right? Meaning the bottom has come and gone. Now we go up?
Blackvault, long term i can see DOW getting down to 4,000 - 6000 between 2011 - 2013. My plan is to unload both of my real estate by 2009 - 2010, and start buying like crazy in Irvine between 2011 - 2013. I see a short term dead cat bounce rally where 7500 was our short-term bottom. I can also see the real estate sales picking up first quarter 2009 and prolonging the decline by government intervention and low mortgage rates. I think that the DOW is going to rally into 2009, but will not rally above the our last 14,000 DOW high. Long term, the depression that I see that is going to hit our country seems to be very very serious.
Just remember my PK friend, between 2011 - 2013…. Cash is KING…. Gold is GOD.
Now… I’ll give him credit for the call on prolonging the RE decline and for calling a rally in 2009, but he called the bottom 4 months early and whiffed on everything in between.
You are tough. Especially when folks said he did not know anything. He called a bottom. He called a 10k. He called gold going up when folks said he did not know what he was talking about.
Hat tip to you, Panda. You did better than I thought you would, and better than I could.
Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.
It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.
Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?
Wait…what? Are you kidding me? His bottom call was off by almost a whole quarter, and he missed more calls along the way than Jim Kramer.
DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report…
Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.
So in your view, will never hit 8500 again. Am I right? Meaning the bottom has come and gone. Now we go up?
Blackvault, long term i can see DOW getting down to 4,000 - 6000 between 2011 - 2013. My plan is to unload both of my real estate by 2009 - 2010, and start buying like crazy in Irvine between 2011 - 2013. I see a short term dead cat bounce rally where 7500 was our short-term bottom. I can also see the real estate sales picking up first quarter 2009 and prolonging the decline by government intervention and low mortgage rates. I think that the DOW is going to rally into 2009, but will not rally above the our last 14,000 DOW high. Long term, the depression that I see that is going to hit our country seems to be very very serious.
Just remember my PK friend, between 2011 - 2013…. Cash is KING…. Gold is GOD.
Now… I’ll give him credit for the call on prolonging the RE decline and for calling a rally in 2009, but he called the bottom 4 months early and whiffed on everything in between.
You are tough. Especially when folks said he did not know anything. He called a bottom. He called a 10k. He called gold going up when folks said he did not know what he was talking about.
Hat tip to you, Panda. You did better than I thought you would, and better than I could.
I am tough, thanks. He missed the bottom, by 2,000 points and ~4 months. I gave him credit for the 10k call, too. And his gold call has yet to come true because we’re 2 years away from his prediction.
Listen, I’m not trying to crush anyone’s success. I just took issue with your assessment of his accuracy.
I’m too lazy to look up the thread, but I think it was the same one that morekaos quoted acpme in that I gave a panda the props he deserved. He made a pretty good call. Off by a few months but right on some of the numbers. He made a good call. Now… if he could just get the timing right… I’d actually follow his calls. I don’t have anything to compare it to, because I haven’t been trading. But… if this bear rally holds you know I will be turning on the puts. Sometimes you just have to go with your feelings and have a feel of the market. I haven’t had that feeling so I stepped aside and will get back in when the feeling hits me.
Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.
It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.
Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?
Wait…what? Are you kidding me? His bottom call was off by almost a whole quarter, and he missed more calls along the way than Jim Kramer.
DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report…
Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.
So in your view, will never hit 8500 again. Am I right? Meaning the bottom has come and gone. Now we go up?
Blackvault, long term i can see DOW getting down to 4,000 - 6000 between 2011 - 2013. My plan is to unload both of my real estate by 2009 - 2010, and start buying like crazy in Irvine between 2011 - 2013. I see a short term dead cat bounce rally where 7500 was our short-term bottom. I can also see the real estate sales picking up first quarter 2009 and prolonging the decline by government intervention and low mortgage rates. I think that the DOW is going to rally into 2009, but will not rally above the our last 14,000 DOW high. Long term, the depression that I see that is going to hit our country seems to be very very serious.
Just remember my PK friend, between 2011 - 2013…. Cash is KING…. Gold is GOD.
Now… I’ll give him credit for the call on prolonging the RE decline and for calling a rally in 2009, but he called the bottom 4 months early and whiffed on everything in between.
You are tough. Especially when folks said he did not know anything. He called a bottom. He called a 10k. He called gold going up when folks said he did not know what he was talking about.
Hat tip to you, Panda. You did better than I thought you would, and better than I could.
I am tough, thanks. He missed the bottom, by 2,000 points and ~4 months. I gave him credit for the 10k call, too. And his gold call has yet to come true because we’re 2 years away from his prediction.
Listen, I’m not trying to crush anyone’s success. I just took issue with your assessment of his accuracy.
Could you or did you call better? That is not an attack. Just honestly, did you call it any better? I have contended all along that one does not need to call the top or bottom, just ride the overall trend. We make our assessment of top or bottom for the purposes of timing, but in the end it is our committment to what we know and don’t know that keeps up in the game or changes our mind. You don’t think Panda has done better than most, especially considering that people were saying that he was completely ignorant? His calls will obviously not be perfect, but the folks who attacked him were wrong.
It could be that the buying power has now exhausted itself. In a very short
time span, the Dow lost 170 points yesterday (the intraday high was 10,119),
to close at 9,949, and the S&P 500 hit a new intraday high of 1,101, but closed
at 1,081. To be sure, there is plenty of technical support out there still, and the
S&P 500 would have to dive all the way down to 1,040 to break the trendline from
the March low. I don’t expect this to develop into a 30%+ correction yet,
but more like a 5-6% pullback. 1100 will be a very tough resistance for S&P to get
through.
[ Edited: 22 October 2009 09:55 AM by BondTrader ]
