What do you guys think of UNG (Natural Gas ETF)?

Looks like it might have hit a bottom, thinking about investing some serious $$$ into it.

I can’t see it getting much lower then it is right now. Opinions are appreciated.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UNG#chart2:symbol=ung;range=5y;indicator=sma(50,100,200)+split+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Thanks

Althought I’m not an expert, I understand there is some problem right now with regulators wanting to reduce the impact this type of fund supposedly has on commodity prices.  I can see how a bunch of speculators can cause an artificial price rise, as in the price of oil a year ago.  The regulatory climate right now is causing the price of the ETF to diverge from the price of the commodity.  If you google “UNG Halts share creation” you will find several commentaries and news stories.

I agree that the price of the commodity itself is historically very low, but I don’t think the ETF is the way to take advantage of it.  If somebody has a good idea, I too would like to hear it.

Just my thoughts…  I are an engineer, not a financial guy.

I had several clients want to look into this trade so I dug a bit. The ETF is most certainly out as my people wanted to hold long for a good bit of time and the ETF is just too inefficient as an investment vehicle. Short of going into the futures and com markets I just couldn’t find a good play. If I could buy a tank and leave it there that would be the best I could come up with but as of this time such an investment does not exist…sorry

rick_r - 26 August 2009 06:32 PM

What do you guys think of UNG (Natural Gas ETF)?

Looks like it might have hit a bottom, thinking about investing some serious $$$ into it.

I can’t see it getting much lower then it is right now. Opinions are appreciated.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UNG#chart2:symbol=ung;range=5y;indicator=sma(50,100,200)+split+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Thanks

I personally love ETFs, and have been recommending them to others who got killed in mutual funds and sick of paying mgmt fees. Some ETFs are for trading (2x, 3x levered) and some are good for holding long term.
The best way to invest in commodities are buying individual companies, gold miners, natrual gas producers, oil dirllers…etc. But if you don’t want to take company specific risks and have no time for in depth research, I say ETF is the way to go.
Now on to natural gas, I attached two screen shots, one comparing two natural gas ETFs and the other compring the natural gas commodity price against ETF. You be the judge.
Typically when natural gas made a run, its 2-300% to say the least, you just don’t know when it will start, so I will recommend accumulate slowly over time. Good luck

BondTrader - 27 August 2009 09:05 AM

rick_r - 26 August 2009 06:32 PM

What do you guys think of UNG (Natural Gas ETF)?

Looks like it might have hit a bottom, thinking about investing some serious $$$ into it.

I can’t see it getting much lower then it is right now. Opinions are appreciated.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UNG#chart2:symbol=ung;range=5y;indicator=sma(50,100,200)+split+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Thanks

I personally love ETFs, and have been recommending them to others who got killed in mutual funds and sick of paying mgmt fees. Some ETFs are for trading (2x, 3x levered) and some are good for holding long term.
The best way to invest in commodities are buying individual companies, gold miners, natrual gas producers, oil dirllers…etc. But if you don’t want to take company specific risks and have no time for in depth research, I say ETF is the way to go.
Now on to natural gas, I attached two screen shots, one comparing two natural gas ETFs and the other compring the natural gas commodity price against ETF. You be the judge.
Typically when natural gas made a run, its 2-300% to say the least, you just don’t know when it will start, so I will recommend accumulate slowly over time. Good luck

I just made my first purchase.

Thanks Bondtrader

Go UNG, just broke $11

I loaded up in the 9’s

rick_r - 10 September 2009 11:38 AM

Go UNG, just broke $11

I loaded up in the 9’s

Just a quick note, the good news, money is flowing into this, so it should go higher overtime, bad news, it’s going into resistence around $12 in short term, take some off the table or write some calls.

I love nat gas and it is oversold.  I wish the UNG was a good vehicle to get direct exposure but these ETFs are not efficient.  Nat Gas is up 50% in the last 2 weeks and yet the UNG doesn’t really move.  You gotta go after companies that explore, produce and hold the commodity, and ride that wave.  I think heating over is oversold as well.

I sold some Oct $10 puts on UNG earlier today.

BondTrader - 16 September 2009 02:35 PM

rick_r - 10 September 2009 11:38 AM

Go UNG, just broke $11

I loaded up in the 9’s

Just a quick note, the good news, money is flowing into this, so it should go higher overtime, bad news, it’s going into resistence around $12 in short term, take some off the table or write some calls.

Looks like it’s having a tough time staying above $12. I might buy some puts like USC did.

Go UNG Go.

Closed at $12.10 today.

Hanging on till $20 this winter. Remember historical ratio of Oil to Nat Gas is 6 to 1. We are currently at 25 to 1.

Good Luck all.

Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher,  but today’s market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it’s just a game of greater fool.
Good luck

U.S. Homes to Spend 8 Percent Less on Winter Heat (Update2)

shorting oil right now instead…

BondTrader - 06 October 2009 10:35 AM

Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher,  but today’s market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it’s just a game of greater fool.
Good luck

Just a quick update on UNG, on the daily charts, it’s in the oversold territory but the weekly charts indicates there will be more downside. I will probably wait for it to get within 9.5-10 to get in, but keep in mind the fundamentals are not supporting it to go much higher, at least for the near term.

BondTrader - 06 October 2009 10:35 AM

Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher,  but today’s market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it’s just a game of greater fool.
Good luck

Without going into too much technicals, I believe its about time for UNG to pop again. But I will wait for a big down day, 5-10% drop with volume spike to get in. Target around $9 or even below.

BondTrader - 09 November 2009 07:53 AM

BondTrader - 06 October 2009 10:35 AM

Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher,  but today’s market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it’s just a game of greater fool.
Good luck

Without going into too much technicals, I believe its about time for UNG to pop again. But I will wait for a big down day, 5-10% drop with volume spike to get in. Target around $9 or even below.

BT, I will put a limit order for 1000 shares at 9.00 or under. Natural gas seems to be only commodity play that seems cheap right now compared to the dollar. Precious metals are up, Agriculture is up, and Oil is up. I mean where else can get anything for 85% off from retail? I wish Irvine home prices would see these kind of discounts. I think UNG is a good long term play. I am Dollar cost averaging from here.

PANDA - 09 November 2009 02:06 PM

BondTrader - 09 November 2009 07:53 AM

BondTrader - 06 October 2009 10:35 AM

Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher,  but today’s market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it’s just a game of greater fool.
Good luck

Without going into too much technicals, I believe its about time for UNG to pop again. But I will wait for a big down day, 5-10% drop with volume spike to get in. Target around $9 or even below.

BT, I will put a limit order for 1000 shares at 9.00 or under. Natural gas seems to be only commodity play that seems cheap right now compared to the dollar. Precious metals are up, Agriculture is up, and Oil is up. I mean where else can get anything for 85% off from retail? I wish Irvine home prices would see these kind of discounts. I think UNG is a good long term play. I am Dollar cost averaging from here.

Good luck, I do expect the Sep low ($8.94) will hold at least for the short term. If you believe the trend is your friend, UNG is still in a big downward trend until it can break $15. I know you are an investor not a short term trader, just want to remind you don’t go all in at once.

BondTrader - 10 November 2009 10:36 AM

PANDA - 09 November 2009 02:06 PM

BondTrader - 09 November 2009 07:53 AM

BondTrader - 06 October 2009 10:35 AM

Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher,  but today’s market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it’s just a game of greater fool.
Good luck

Without going into too much technicals, I believe its about time for UNG to pop again. But I will wait for a big down day, 5-10% drop with volume spike to get in. Target around $9 or even below.

BT, I will put a limit order for 1000 shares at 9.00 or under. Natural gas seems to be only commodity play that seems cheap right now compared to the dollar. Precious metals are up, Agriculture is up, and Oil is up. I mean where else can get anything for 85% off from retail? I wish Irvine home prices would see these kind of discounts. I think UNG is a good long term play. I am Dollar cost averaging from here.

Good luck, I do expect the Sep low ($8.94) will hold at least for the short term. If you believe the trend is your friend, UNG is still in a big downward trend until it can break $15. I know you are an investor not a short term trader, just want to remind you don’t go all in at once.

I would recommend selling uncovered Dec $9 puts if you want to establish a position.

BondTrader - 10 November 2009 10:36 AM

PANDA - 09 November 2009 02:06 PM

BondTrader - 09 November 2009 07:53 AM

BondTrader - 06 October 2009 10:35 AM

Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher,  but today’s market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it’s just a game of greater fool.
Good luck

Without going into too much technicals, I believe its about time for UNG to pop again. But I will wait for a big down day, 5-10% drop with volume spike to get in. Target around $9 or even below.

BT, I will put a limit order for 1000 shares at 9.00 or under. Natural gas seems to be only commodity play that seems cheap right now compared to the dollar. Precious metals are up, Agriculture is up, and Oil is up. I mean where else can get anything for 85% off from retail? I wish Irvine home prices would see these kind of discounts. I think UNG is a good long term play. I am Dollar cost averaging from here.

Good luck, I do expect the Sep low ($8.94) will hold at least for the short term. If you believe the trend is your friend, UNG is still in a big downward trend until it can break $15. I know you are an investor not a short term trader, just want to remind you don’t go all in at once.

Thanks for the tip BT. I will place my first 1000 share order on UNG between $8.75 - $8.99. I will then start dollar cost averaging 1000 shares every 30 days. When this turns, I can see a 200 - 300% return.

PANDA - 10 November 2009 11:18 AM

BondTrader - 10 November 2009 10:36 AM

PANDA - 09 November 2009 02:06 PM

BondTrader - 09 November 2009 07:53 AM

BondTrader - 06 October 2009 10:35 AM

Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher,  but today’s market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it’s just a game of greater fool.
Good luck

Without going into too much technicals, I believe its about time for UNG to pop again. But I will wait for a big down day, 5-10% drop with volume spike to get in. Target around $9 or even below.

BT, I will put a limit order for 1000 shares at 9.00 or under. Natural gas seems to be only commodity play that seems cheap right now compared to the dollar. Precious metals are up, Agriculture is up, and Oil is up. I mean where else can get anything for 85% off from retail? I wish Irvine home prices would see these kind of discounts. I think UNG is a good long term play. I am Dollar cost averaging from here.

Good luck, I do expect the Sep low ($8.94) will hold at least for the short term. If you believe the trend is your friend, UNG is still in a big downward trend until it can break $15. I know you are an investor not a short term trader, just want to remind you don’t go all in at once.

Thanks for the tip BT. I will place my first 1000 share order on UNG between $8.75 - $8.99. I will then start dollar cost averaging 1000 shares every 30 days. When this turns, I can see a 200 - 300% return.

Panda, sell 10 uncovered puts on UNG either for Nov or Dec.  That way if it doesn’t get below $9, you collect the premium….if it does go below $9 then your basis will be $9 minus the premium you collected.

USCTrojanCPA - 10 November 2009 02:16 PM

PANDA - 10 November 2009 11:18 AM

BondTrader - 10 November 2009 10:36 AM

PANDA - 09 November 2009 02:06 PM

BondTrader - 09 November 2009 07:53 AM

BondTrader - 06 October 2009 10:35 AM

Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher,  but today’s market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it’s just a game of greater fool.
Good luck

Without going into too much technicals, I believe its about time for UNG to pop again. But I will wait for a big down day, 5-10% drop with volume spike to get in. Target around $9 or even below.

BT, I will put a limit order for 1000 shares at 9.00 or under. Natural gas seems to be only commodity play that seems cheap right now compared to the dollar. Precious metals are up, Agriculture is up, and Oil is up. I mean where else can get anything for 85% off from retail? I wish Irvine home prices would see these kind of discounts. I think UNG is a good long term play. I am Dollar cost averaging from here.

Good luck, I do expect the Sep low ($8.94) will hold at least for the short term. If you believe the trend is your friend, UNG is still in a big downward trend until it can break $15. I know you are an investor not a short term trader, just want to remind you don’t go all in at once.

Thanks for the tip BT. I will place my first 1000 share order on UNG between $8.75 - $8.99. I will then start dollar cost averaging 1000 shares every 30 days. When this turns, I can see a 200 - 300% return.

Panda, sell 10 uncovered puts on UNG either for Nov or Dec.  That way if it doesn’t get below $9, you collect the premium….if it does go below $9 then your basis will be $9 minus the premium you collected.

A solid strategy, unless gas goes to 0 in a deflationary spiral..LOL

PANDA - 10 November 2009 11:18 AM

BondTrader - 10 November 2009 10:36 AM

PANDA - 09 November 2009 02:06 PM

BondTrader - 09 November 2009 07:53 AM

BondTrader - 06 October 2009 10:35 AM

Decent volume (accumulation) the last two days, but nothing huge. Until it can stay firmly above 12, I still believe you will see 10-10.5 before you see $14-15. The current inventory situation (full capacity) will not support the price from going any higher,  but today’s market has nothing to do with foundamentals, it’s just a game of greater fool.
Good luck

Without going into too much technicals, I believe its about time for UNG to pop again. But I will wait for a big down day, 5-10% drop with volume spike to get in. Target around $9 or even below.

BT, I will put a limit order for 1000 shares at 9.00 or under. Natural gas seems to be only commodity play that seems cheap right now compared to the dollar. Precious metals are up, Agriculture is up, and Oil is up. I mean where else can get anything for 85% off from retail? I wish Irvine home prices would see these kind of discounts. I think UNG is a good long term play. I am Dollar cost averaging from here.

Good luck, I do expect the Sep low ($8.94) will hold at least for the short term. If you believe the trend is your friend, UNG is still in a big downward trend until it can break $15. I know you are an investor not a short term trader, just want to remind you don’t go all in at once.

Thanks for the tip BT. I will place my first 1000 share order on UNG between $8.75 - $8.99. I will then start dollar cost averaging 1000 shares every 30 days. When this turns, I can see a 200 - 300% return.

Make sure before you buy, you ask yourself how much you willing to lose on this. I really don’t like the idea of cost averaging, you know I’m a firm believer of using stops. Anyways, be patient with it.

USCTrojanCPA - 10 November 2009 02:16 PM

Panda, sell 10 uncovered puts on UNG either for Nov or Dec.  That way if it doesn’t get below $9, you collect the premium….if it does go below $9 then your basis will be $9 minus the premium you collected.

Wouldn’t it be better, at least from what Panda is saying his strategy is, to buy 1000 shares of UNG and then write 10 covered puts on his shares. And maybe buy some deep out of the money puts as a hedge. That way he collects the premium and cashes in on the upward swing of the shares.

Personally, uncovered anything is only for people with high risk tolerance and why some trading accounts do not allow for selling uncovered options. Not only that but trading in commodities is even more high risk, just ask Amaranth how their nat gas play went. Also, I wouldn’t “recommend” any trade to anyone on the intarwebs, and I wouldn’t follow anyone’s recommendation either. Sharing ideas is one thing, but “recommending” and telling people how to trade is setting yourself up for trouble.

Rick,

What are you doing? Are you still holding and planning on buying more shares when UNG goes below $9.00? Graphix and T-man, I am not as smart as you guys as I have no idea what uncovering calls, puts, and premiums mean. I sort of just trust my instincts when i invest and try buy assets at a bargain price. I try not to listen to what CNBC and the media says to influence what i invest in. I had the same feeling when Oil was $40USD back in Jan 2009. It seemed like a no brainer. It just felt obvious to me that oil was undervalued when i was pumping gas for $1.99 a gallon. Same thing with currencies, when i was Seoul last March I knew it was a good time to diversify out of the U.S. dollar into strong foreign currencies, when i could have a nice kalbi dinner at a nice restaurant for under $10 bucks. Honestly, I dont’ know anything about natural gas, except that it seems like the only dirt cheap commodity play right now. Bondtrader, if i buy into UNG, I am looking at a long term hold of 1-3 years.

PANDA - 10 November 2009 04:35 PM

Rick,

What are you doing? Are you still holding and planning on buying more shares when UNG goes below $9.00? Graphix and T-man, I am not as smart as you guys as I have no idea what uncovering calls, puts, and premiums mean. I sort of just trust my instincts when i invest and try buy assets at a bargain price. I try not to listen to what CNBC and the media says to influence what i invest in. I had the same feeling when Oil was $40USD back in Jan 2009. It seemed like a no brainer. It just felt obvious to me that oil was undervalued when i was pumping gas for $1.99 a gallon. Same thing with currencies, when i was Seoul last March I knew it was a good time to diversify out of the U.S. dollar into strong foreign currencies, when i could have a nice kalbi dinner at a nice restaurant for under $10 bucks. Honestly, I dont’ know anything about natural gas, except that it seems like the only dirt cheap commodity play right now. Bondtrader, if i buy into UNG, I am looking at a long term hold of 1-3 years.

Sold 1/2 my position at 11.25 still holding the rest with an average price of mid 9’s. Will probably sell since I see better opportunities out there.

Making a killing day trading Intel.

BondTrader, what platform do you recommend for day trading. My brother uses TradeStation and is happy with it but that might be overkill for me.

rick_r - 10 November 2009 09:31 PM

BondTrader, what platform do you recommend for day trading. My brother uses TradeStation and is happy with it but that might be overkill for me.

Sorry, not bondtrader, but you might want to check out Think or Swim if you are day trading and especially if you use options.