As you probably saw in the other thread, we have a conference call with Daniel Young from the Irvine Company.

Dan Young is president of Irvine Community Development Company LLC (ICDC), an affiliate of the Irvine Company responsible for all residential development on The Irvine Ranch®.

As president of ICDC, Mr. Young guides all facets of the Irvine Company’s community master-planning and development process, which began more than 45 years ago. From the villages of Woodbury, Northpark and Woodbridge in Irvine, to the coastal communities of Crystal Cove and Newport Coast, the residential communities on The Irvine Ranch have won many national awards and are admired for their unique character and livability.

Mr. Young came to the Irvine Company in November 1999, after a 20-year career as a real-estate developer and a consultant to the industry. In his previous role with the Irvine Company, he served as executive vice president of Entitlement and Public Affairs, overseeing the company’s entitlement on The Irvine Ranch.

His community involvement includes 11 years on the Santa Ana City Council, including eight years as mayor. In his official capacity as mayor, Mr. Young also served on the board of directors of several regional agencies, including the Metropolitan Water District and the Orange County Transportation Authority.

Mr. Young received his bachelor’s degree from California State University, Fullerton, and his master’s degree in public administration from the University of Southern California.

The Irvine Company is a 140-year-old privately held company known throughout the world as a best-of-class master planner and long-term owner, investor and operator of a large and diversified real estate portfolio. The company also is known as a steward of some of the most beautiful, permanently preserved land in California. In addition to its master-planned communities on The Irvine Ranch® in Orange County, Calif., the company also is known for its portfolio of high-quality investment properties—office, retail and apartment—it owns in San Diego, Orange County, West Los Angeles and the Silicon Valley. The company traces its roots to the 1860s with the assembly of The Irvine Ranch from Mexican and Spanish land grants. The Irvine Company was incorporated in 1894.

This thread is to brainstorm what questions you would like to ask. What is really important to this community?

Here is my question:

We all know that The Irvine Company is the sole provider of housing for Irvine. They have full control (within political constraints) of the type, quantity, location and price of new homes in Irvine. If they choose to, they can limit home production as long as they want and keep prices high through limiting supply. If they choose to build enough to accommodate the next generation of buyers, prices will fall. This is the key decision that impacts all of Irvine. Existing homeowners would probably prefer that supply remain limited, and first-time buyers and renters would prefer a greater supply. With that preamble:

Will the Irvine Company limit supply to control price? or will it build to meet demand?

If you see a post with a question you like, please register a “thanks.” The more “thanks” that are recorded, the more popular the question.

How and where will the Irvine Company accommodate the State’s requirement for additional “affordable housing units” given the current political theatre and cost constraints we see today?

Isn’t Irvine supposed to cough up a few hundred more AHU’s to meet regulations?

My .02

Soylent Green Is People.

What year will they start building out Stonegate? How many homes are anticipated?

When will Orchard Hills and Laguna Crossing open… and what type of housing, square footage and pricing do they think it will be?

When will they restart sales in Woodbury and Portola Springs?

What will happen to the John Laing Homes partially built projects in Portola Springs, Woodbury and Woodbury East?

Why has the Mello Roos for newer communities increased 3-4x fold versus communities that are 6-8 years older when the density of these newer communities has increased over 2x-3x?

usctrojanman29 - 22 July 2009 04:27 PM

Why has the Mello Roos for newer communities increased 3-4x fold versus communities that are 6-8 years older when the density of these newer communities has increased over 2x?

Hrm….very good question.

Would anyone know if Northpark has fewer ammenities than Woodbury, for instance?  I’m pretty sure the mello roos is considerably lower…

And the density is also much higher.

26w100k+ - 22 July 2009 04:37 PM

usctrojanman29 - 22 July 2009 04:27 PM

Why has the Mello Roos for newer communities increased 3-4x fold versus communities that are 6-8 years older when the density of these newer communities has increased over 2x?

Hrm….very good question.

Would anyone know if Northpark has fewer ammenities than Woodbury, for instance?  I’m pretty sure the mello roos is considerably lower…

And the density is also much higher.

Mello Roos may be lower in future communities, particularly if they need to hit a lower price point.

We could ask how they determine mello roos for a new community. It will be interesting to hear about their process.

On a related note, I am wondering if locking in the low rate on the bonds was part of the reason they have developed so many finished lots in Irvine. Low interest rates make for large bonds, so the revenues from the CFD would be enormous. Of course, it is debt, and since they have all the finished lots, they would be paying the debt service themselves, but it is still a lot of money.

Soylent Green Is People - 22 July 2009 03:14 PM

How and where will the Irvine Company accommodate the State’s requirement for additional “affordable housing units” given the current political theatre and cost constraints we see today?

Isn’t Irvine supposed to cough up a few hundred more AHU’s to meet regulations?

My .02

Soylent Green Is People.

IMO, this is the biggest danger to the value of the Irvine Company’s holdings. I have worked on financial projections for affordable projects. The primary reason these projects do not work financially is due to the cost of the land. This problem is often solved by municipalities by donating the land to a affordable housing development company who builds the project. Affordable housing requirements are an absolute disaster for land value because you can only provide affordable housing by reducing costs down to the structure—even poor people can afford the sticks and bricks. Taking land value down to zero is not what the Irvine Company has in mind.

With California’s drastic budget cuts and borrowing from local goverments, how does the Irvine Company plan on maintaining the funding for the IUSD over the long term?  How will the budget cuts affect the quality of the Irvine schools and how does the Irvine Company plan on responding to this?

From the main blog:

  Astute Observation by NOT
2009-07-22 03:54 PM

Questions for Dan Young:

1)  What is your personal feeling as to when the bottom of the market will be?

2) What is the Irvine company using to value it’s homes?

3) What have rents done to the house prices around your new developments?

4) Why have you accepted this interview?

5) To the best of your knowledge, have blogs like the IHB made a difference in the average questions that the average home buyer is asking these days?

6) What is so special about Irinve?

7) Where do you live? What community?

8) What does it cost the ICDC to build a building in Irvine on a $/SqFt basis?

From the main blog:

Astute Observation by South County
2009-07-22 07:50 PM

Well IR I am impressed, good job! getting the division prez of the “for sale housing” group the Irvine Company is special. As a private development firm the Irvine Company is very quiet with there plans, has something changed?

I think any new product will be within agency paper financing, is this in their plans?

Will there be any change to the lot take downs with merchant builders?

How will Lennar’s problems with El Toro base influence their plans?

IR,

Great job in getting this guy to particpate an open forum conference call! 

What will be the format for the call on Monday?  Do you have a dial in number?  Can any of us ask questions during the call? Are you opening that up to the press? ( just want to make sure it doesn’t turn into call dominated by the press guys, and local realtors and ask stupid questions during this valuable hour).

Sorry if you have already posted this information somewhere else.

How long have they been reading IHB?
What have they learned from it?
Have they applied any of the information found here when shaping product development or other areas? If so, how? If not, why?

irvine123 - 23 July 2009 08:05 AM

IR,

Great job in getting this guy to particpate an open forum conference call! 

What will be the format for the call on Monday?  Do you have a dial in number?  Can any of us ask questions during the call? Are you opening that up to the press? ( just want to make sure it doesn’t turn into call dominated by the press guys, and local realtors and ask stupid questions during this valuable hour).

Sorry if you have already posted this information somewhere else.

An idea would be similar to the way its done over on the AMG Private Lounge.
Its a Mercedes Tech Board for the AMG folk. Sorry a link wont help as you need to be an
owner to log in. 

They set up a seperate thread. And people post questions on line for about an hour. This way the moderator can control the content and the thread can be saved for viewing later. I think thsi would keep the control for both IHB and TIC and save the content. It also gives the party responding a few seconds to really think about his answers and he can no comment on the ones that are company private.

Questions for Dan Young:

1. What is your forecast for the housing market in Irvine?  What are your price predictions?  How long will it take before the market begins to recover?
2. What types of housing do you foresee building and selling in Irvine in the near term? (ex. smaller attached condos, SFR or whatever)?  Which market segments will be hot and you will be building?  Which ones will be slow and so you will postpone building?
3. How is the commercial space doing?  Are a lot of new businesses moving to Irvine?  Which new ones are here?  What are the employment in Irvine projections?  Which sectors (ex. finance or cars or healthcare or whatever) are gaining tenants and which are losing tenants?
4. The Great Park plans look cool, but how long is that going to take to build?  Are the plans still the same?
5. Who is the genius namer?  No one but TIC could come up with a prestigious but accurate name like “El Toro stone” for torn up airport runway concrete at the Great Park.  Who comes up with all the great sounding TIC names, an ex-poet or something?

P.S. The Quail Meadows rental office team is fantastic, they are a pleasure to deal with whenever I go in there.  Just an FYI .

Anonymous - 23 July 2009 11:22 AM

Questions for Dan Young:

1. What is your forecast for the housing market in Irvine?  What are your price predictions?  How long will it take before the market begins to recover?
2. What types of housing do you foresee building and selling in Irvine in the near term? (ex. smaller attached condos, SFR or whatever)?  Which market segments will be hot and you will be building?  Which ones will be slow and so you will postpone building?
3. How is the commercial space doing?  Are a lot of new businesses moving to Irvine?  Which new ones are here?  What are the employment in Irvine projections?  Which sectors (ex. finance or cars or healthcare or whatever) are gaining tenants and which are losing tenants?
4. The Great Park plans look cool, but how long is that going to take to build?  Are the plans still the same?
5. Who is the genius namer?  No one but TIC could come up with a prestigious but accurate name like “El Toro stone” for torn up airport runway concrete at the Great Park.  Who comes up with all the great sounding TIC names, an ex-poet or something?

P.S. The Quail Meadows rental office team is fantastic, they are a pleasure to deal with whenever I go in there.  Just an FYI .

I didn’t know you lived over at QM.

The Irvine Company is reading this thread, and they appreciate the questions.

I will be announcing more details on how the call will work tomorrow, and I will create a blog thread for questions over the weekend.

When is TIC going to move away from the Mediterranean/Tuscan theme?  I would like to see a different style of architecture.

Can you please tell the city to allow trees to grow to maturity before ripping them out and replacing them with seedlings?

I appreciate the decision not to develop the land near Jeffrey/405, but please don’t turn Laguna Crossing into a dense suburban sprawl.

ABC123 - 23 July 2009 04:18 PM

When is TIC going to move away from the Mediterranean/Tuscan theme?  I would like to see a different style of architecture.

Can you please tell the city to allow trees to grow to maturity before ripping them out and replacing them with seedlings?

I appreciate the decision not to develop the land near Jeffrey/405, but please don’t turn Laguna Crossing into a dense suburban sprawl.

Tuscan and mediteranean theme allow the maximum flexibilities of floor plans and garage forward configuration. Other styles like Colonial dictate the floor plan too much and considered bad for product development.

Anonymous - 23 July 2009 11:22 AM

Questions for Dan Young:

1. What is your forecast for the housing market in Irvine?  What are your price predictions?  How long will it take before the market begins to recover?
2. What types of housing do you foresee building and selling in Irvine in the near term? (ex. smaller attached condos, SFR or whatever)?  Which market segments will be hot and you will be building?  Which ones will be slow and so you will postpone building?
3. How is the commercial space doing?  Are a lot of new businesses moving to Irvine?  Which new ones are here?  What are the employment in Irvine projections?  Which sectors (ex. finance or cars or healthcare or whatever) are gaining tenants and which are losing tenants?
4. The Great Park plans look cool, but how long is that going to take to build?  Are the plans still the same?
5. Who is the genius namer?  No one but TIC could come up with a prestigious but accurate name like “El Toro stone” for torn up airport runway concrete at the Great Park.  Who comes up with all the great sounding TIC names, an ex-poet or something?

P.S. The Quail Meadows rental office team is fantastic, they are a pleasure to deal with whenever I go in there.  Just an FYI .

These are softball questions

1. We are in it for the long term.  Prices have bottomed.  A while
2. SFD, first time home buyer. Luxury is slow.
3. Terrible. No. Not good. Everyone across the board.
4. ......why would you ask this question when this is a lennar / city deal?  Go ask them in Lennarhousingblog.com
5. ......again, el toro stone is a great park thing, go ask lennar or city staff.  Marketing comes up with the names just like every other company does.

bkshopr - 23 July 2009 06:00 PM

Tuscan and mediteranean theme allow the maximum flexibilities of floor plans and garage forward configuration. Other styles like Colonial dictate the floor plan too much and considered bad for product development.

In terms of garage forward, kinda. Tuscan and mediterranean themes obviously didn’t originally include garage forward, obviously, since they are much older than cars. It’s just that living in a county full of faux-mediterranean homes with garage forward we’re kind of used to it. Colonial style with garage forward looks strange still, I’ll grant. But I don’t see restrictions on the floor plans. I’ve seen lots of colonial and New England style houses, especially in the IE, with typically and highly variable “suburban modern” interiors.

tkaratz - 24 July 2009 09:48 PM

Anonymous - 23 July 2009 11:22 AM

Questions for Dan Young:

1. What is your forecast for the housing market in Irvine?  What are your price predictions?  How long will it take before the market begins to recover?
2. What types of housing do you foresee building and selling in Irvine in the near term? (ex. smaller attached condos, SFR or whatever)?  Which market segments will be hot and you will be building?  Which ones will be slow and so you will postpone building?
3. How is the commercial space doing?  Are a lot of new businesses moving to Irvine?  Which new ones are here?  What are the employment in Irvine projections?  Which sectors (ex. finance or cars or healthcare or whatever) are gaining tenants and which are losing tenants?
4. The Great Park plans look cool, but how long is that going to take to build?  Are the plans still the same?
5. Who is the genius namer?  No one but TIC could come up with a prestigious but accurate name like “El Toro stone” for torn up airport runway concrete at the Great Park.  Who comes up with all the great sounding TIC names, an ex-poet or something?

P.S. The Quail Meadows rental office team is fantastic, they are a pleasure to deal with whenever I go in there.  Just an FYI .

These are softball questions

1. We are in it for the long term.  Prices have bottomed.  A while
2. SFD, first time home buyer. Luxury is slow.
3. Terrible. No. Not good. Everyone across the board.
4. ......why would you ask this question when this is a lennar / city deal?  Go ask them in Lennarhousingblog.com
5. ......again, el toro stone is a great park thing, go ask lennar or city staff.  Marketing comes up with the names just like every other company does.

You answered those questions like an experienced developer…

Any question is an easy question if you answer it like a politician (ie. just change the topic for the hard ones, give vague answers for the easy ones).  Hopefully, I will get real answers though.  Would also like to add:

6. What is up with the huge houses with 5-6 bedrooms and only 2 or maybe 3 parking garage spots?  Anyone with family big enough to fit all the bedrooms (ex. have parents or grown up kids living with them) is going to need more parking.  Also, why are there so may unusable garage spots (ex. tandem?).  Saw a Shady Canyon mansion listing with only 3 garage spots once. What’s up with that?  Who is going to have enough cash to buy a huge $5 million + house, but not want to have several nice cars as well?  Seems like a disconnect.

IrvineRenter - 25 July 2009 08:16 AM

tkaratz - 24 July 2009 09:48 PM

Anonymous - 23 July 2009 11:22 AM

Questions for Dan Young:

1. What is your forecast for the housing market in Irvine?  What are your price predictions?  How long will it take before the market begins to recover?
2. What types of housing do you foresee building and selling in Irvine in the near term? (ex. smaller attached condos, SFR or whatever)?  Which market segments will be hot and you will be building?  Which ones will be slow and so you will postpone building?
3. How is the commercial space doing?  Are a lot of new businesses moving to Irvine?  Which new ones are here?  What are the employment in Irvine projections?  Which sectors (ex. finance or cars or healthcare or whatever) are gaining tenants and which are losing tenants?
4. The Great Park plans look cool, but how long is that going to take to build?  Are the plans still the same?
5. Who is the genius namer?  No one but TIC could come up with a prestigious but accurate name like “El Toro stone” for torn up airport runway concrete at the Great Park.  Who comes up with all the great sounding TIC names, an ex-poet or something?

P.S. The Quail Meadows rental office team is fantastic, they are a pleasure to deal with whenever I go in there.  Just an FYI .

These are softball questions

1. We are in it for the long term.  Prices have bottomed.  A while
2. SFD, first time home buyer. Luxury is slow.
3. Terrible. No. Not good. Everyone across the board.
4. ......why would you ask this question when this is a lennar / city deal?  Go ask them in Lennarhousingblog.com
5. ......again, el toro stone is a great park thing, go ask lennar or city staff.  Marketing comes up with the names just like every other company does.

You answered those questions like an experienced developer…

Is the irvine company still trying to challenge california mandate for affordable housing?

http://www.ocregister.com/news/housing-irvine-city-1786581-units-affordable