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Economic Commentary
Posted: 04 December 2009 04:26 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 476 ]
Condo
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Total Posts:  289
Joined  2009-02-05

The U.S. nonfarm payroll report was a huge surprise and a complete disconnect from just about everything we saw regarding the U.S. labour market in November. This is not to suggest that the pace of decline in employment is failing to subside, but rather the magnitude of the improvement in the so called second derivative. There was absolutely nothing in the i) claims data, ii) ISM manufacturing data, iii) ISM non-manufacturing data, iv) ADP report, and v) Challenger hiring and firing data that would have pointed to the direction of such a small decline in nonfarm payrolls (-11,000 in November).

It should be duly noted that the household survey showed a 227k increase in November, but this recouped just a fraction of the 1.8 million jobs destroyed in the previous three months. Against this background, the unemployment rate managed to tick down in November, to 10.0% from 10.2% in October. Perhaps President Obama should announce a job summit every month — it seems to work smile

One gotta love the way those wall street gangsters playing this market. Sell off before the number coming out to make everyone believe the job report is going to be aweful, then “surprise” everyone with a “great” number and get all the mom and pops excited to buy stocks in the morning only to sell off in the afternoon. Of course, zombie banks once again leading the charge in the afternoon to bring Dow back into the positive territory. And today could mark the start of unwinding of this dollar carry trade for the last 6 months if dollar continue to rally off the low. With 97% people out there shorting gold, I’m expecting a massive short squeeze on dollar to happen overtime.S&P briefly touched 1119 this morning before the slide. I will keep watching the 1076-1080 support leve and wait for the confirmation of the 25 days MA to cross under 50day MA to seriously short this market.

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