If so, I am SURE I can locate counterparties to the trade in literally any amount you want. I am dead serious.

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 06:14 AM

Is this an indication of interest?  If so I will meet you tomorrow, and we can put $100K to work.  Is that enough, or do you high rollers only deal in 7 figures?
If so, I am SURE I can locate counterparties to the trade in literally any amount you want. I am dead serious.

Oh my.  We can meet tomorrow?  $100k?  Is that enough?  Dead Serious?  At sundown?  In the town square?  Dead Serious?

You sound dead serious.  Why do I get the feeling that in another time, you would be asking for a duel?
Do you work at Pimco?  Or does a close relative work at Pimco?

I am interested, but not in your wager.  I am interested in the passion and intensity of your statements.
You would LOVE, (your CAPS), to make a bet?  And in ANY, (again your CAPS), amount?

According to your post, it was written at 9:14pm on Friday night and you were able to get $100k by the next day, Saturday.  I am interested in how you would do that?  Seriously.  I am not able to access $100k on a Saturday with notice from late Friday night.  Truly, I think the most I could access in that particular time period would be the limit on my ATM card.  But, like you said, how many EA’s are on the Forbes 400 list?  Not many we might agree.  How does one, either on or not on the Forbes 400 list, access such sums on a Friday night?  I probably do not run in the same circles as you, but upon reflection, I can not think of anybody in my sphere who could do that.  From late Friday night to Saturday day would imply cash on hand, would it not?

And I am still intrigued by your suggestion of ANY amount?  I am trying to imagine when I might declare such, and I can not.  Such an offer would imply that I can match any amount proffered, and how could I know that?  Even if I had an unlimited draw, as you seem to, I would not think to offer ANY amount, unless I was overcome with emotion.
Why the animosity?  Hostility?
Do you work at Pimco?
You are SURE you can locate counterparties to the trade in literally any amount I want?  Wow!
You have some impressive contacts.  Any amount again?  How would you locate these counterparties?  Your rolodex?  Your email list?  Maybe just your Blackberry?  Again, we obviously run in different circles.
Would your contacts be as fervent?
Maybe they would work at Pimco?

Just for giggles, if I was interested in your wager, what type of odds would you give me?

Cap - Do you work for Pimco?

awgee - 16 February 2009 01:15 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 06:14 AM

Is this an indication of interest?  If so I will meet you tomorrow, and we can put $100K to work.  Is that enough, or do you high rollers only deal in 7 figures?
If so, I am SURE I can locate counterparties to the trade in literally any amount you want. I am dead serious.

Oh my.  We can meet tomorrow?  $100k?  Is that enough?  Dead Serious?  At sundown?  In the town square?  Dead Serious?

You sound dead serious.  Why do I get the feeling that in another time, you would be asking for a duel?
Do you work at Pimco?  Or does a close relative work at Pimco?

I am interested, but not in your wager.  I am interested in the passion and intensity of your statements.
You would LOVE, (your CAPS), to make a bet?  And in ANY, (again your CAPS), amount?

According to your post, it was written at 9:14pm on Friday night and you were able to get $100k by the next day, Saturday.  I am interested in how you would do that?  Seriously.  I am not able to access $100k on a Saturday with notice from late Friday night.  Truly, I think the most I could access in that particular time period would be the limit on my ATM card.  But, like you said, how many EA’s are on the Forbes 400 list?  Not many we might agree.  How does one, either on or not on the Forbes 400 list, access such sums on a Friday night?  I probably do not run in the same circles as you, but upon reflection, I can not think of anybody in my sphere who could do that.  From late Friday night to Saturday day would imply cash on hand, would it not?

And I am still intrigued by your suggestion of ANY amount?  I am trying to imagine when I might declare such, and I can not.  Such an offer would imply that I can match any amount proffered, and how could I know that?  Even if I had an unlimited draw, as you seem to, I would not think to offer ANY amount, unless I was overcome with emotion.
Why the animosity?  Hostility?
Do you work at Pimco?
You are SURE you can locate counterparties to the trade in literally any amount I want?  Wow!
You have some impressive contacts.  Any amount again?  How would you locate these counterparties?  Your rolodex?  Your email list?  Maybe just your Blackberry?  Again, we obviously run in different circles.
Would your contacts be as fervent?
Maybe they would work at Pimco?

Just for giggles, if I was interested in your wager, what type of odds would you give me?

Cap - Do you work for Pimco?

Since you pulled the whose D*** is bigger card by trying to big league me with the can you match my trades questions. I figured I would respond in like kind.  I find your endless and baseless predictions of the collapse of the federal reserve,  fractional reserve banking, company xyz, tiresome, and thought it appropriate to call bullshit on this absurd and extraordinarily confident prediction. Obviously I got your attention.

Yes, it does imply cash on hand. Since the average investor is currently 33% cash on average (according to UBS research), there is more cash than usual sitting idle (just not as much as there used to be).

We’ve been around the bend on a few topics in the past (I recall having some rather strong differences of opinion on macro economics). I guess I just don’t like your style.

CapitalismWorks - 17 February 2009 05:16 AM

awgee - 16 February 2009 01:15 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 06:14 AM

Is this an indication of interest?  If so I will meet you tomorrow, and we can put $100K to work.  Is that enough, or do you high rollers only deal in 7 figures?
If so, I am SURE I can locate counterparties to the trade in literally any amount you want. I am dead serious.

Oh my.  We can meet tomorrow?  $100k?  Is that enough?  Dead Serious?  At sundown?  In the town square?  Dead Serious?

You sound dead serious.  Why do I get the feeling that in another time, you would be asking for a duel?
Do you work at Pimco?  Or does a close relative work at Pimco?

I am interested, but not in your wager.  I am interested in the passion and intensity of your statements.
You would LOVE, (your CAPS), to make a bet?  And in ANY, (again your CAPS), amount?

According to your post, it was written at 9:14pm on Friday night and you were able to get $100k by the next day, Saturday.  I am interested in how you would do that?  Seriously.  I am not able to access $100k on a Saturday with notice from late Friday night.  Truly, I think the most I could access in that particular time period would be the limit on my ATM card.  But, like you said, how many EA’s are on the Forbes 400 list?  Not many we might agree.  How does one, either on or not on the Forbes 400 list, access such sums on a Friday night?  I probably do not run in the same circles as you, but upon reflection, I can not think of anybody in my sphere who could do that.  From late Friday night to Saturday day would imply cash on hand, would it not?

And I am still intrigued by your suggestion of ANY amount?  I am trying to imagine when I might declare such, and I can not.  Such an offer would imply that I can match any amount proffered, and how could I know that?  Even if I had an unlimited draw, as you seem to, I would not think to offer ANY amount, unless I was overcome with emotion.
Why the animosity?  Hostility?
Do you work at Pimco?
You are SURE you can locate counterparties to the trade in literally any amount I want?  Wow!
You have some impressive contacts.  Any amount again?  How would you locate these counterparties?  Your rolodex?  Your email list?  Maybe just your Blackberry?  Again, we obviously run in different circles.
Would your contacts be as fervent?
Maybe they would work at Pimco?

Just for giggles, if I was interested in your wager, what type of odds would you give me?

Cap - Do you work for Pimco?

Since you pulled the whose D*** is bigger card by trying to big league me with the can you match my trades questions. I figured I would respond in like kind.  I find your endless and baseless predictions of the collapse of the federal reserve,  fractional reserve banking, company xyz, tiresome, and thought it appropriate to call bullshit on this absurd and extraordinarily confident prediction. Obviously I got your attention.

Yes, it does imply cash on hand. Since the average investor is currently 33% cash on average (according to UBS research), there is more cash than usual sitting idle (just not as much as there used to be).

We’ve been around the bend on a few topics in the past (I recall having some rather strong differences of opinion on macro economics). I guess I just don’t like your style.

I do not think I have ever predicted the collapse of the Federal Reserve, or fractional reserve banking.  Actually, I think I can find the post where I predicted that the Federal Reserve will continue to exist, just the opposite of what you say I have predicted.  I think I have said a free market is not possible with the existence of the Federal Reserve and fractional reserve banking.  And the FR and frb are responsible for much of the present financial misery.

Do you think I have been wrong about the public companies and banks that I have predicted would collapse or go bankrupt?

And I did not ask if you can match my trades.  I asked why you thought you could match my trades?  I find it curious that you would assume that you could match my trades, as I would not assume that about anyone.  I am curious as to what sort thinks he can bet ANY amount.  I am also curious how one gets a hold of $100k on a Friday night, and you did make that clear to me.  You imply to have $100k in cash.

Where did I write that I am extraordinarily confident that Pimco will collapse?  I think I wrote that Pimco will collapse.  Where do you get the extraordinarily confident?  What did I write that gave you that impression?  If you had asked, I would tell you that I think it more likely than not, and if you asked if I was extraordinarily confident, I would say no.  I am curious as to why you feel it necessary to misrepresent my writing in order to get yourself upset.

Is it possible you are adding to what I have written based on your own emotions and not what I have written?  It appears so.

Yes, I remember our different run ins.  And I am speculating that what you like least of all is that you are more often wrong than right, and the current events are shining a light for you on just how wrong you have been.

So, do you work for Pimco?

And what about those odds?

What does all this have to do with “Newport Beach Prices Dropping”?

Roo - 17 February 2009 06:58 AM

What does all this have to do with “Newport Beach Prices Dropping”?

Nothing.

This is more basic than real estate.

Roo - 17 February 2009 06:58 AM

What does all this have to do with “Newport Beach Prices Dropping”?

A good chunk of Newport Beach private party wealth is invested through Pimco.

awgee - 17 February 2009 06:38 AM

CapitalismWorks - 17 February 2009 05:16 AM

awgee - 16 February 2009 01:15 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 06:14 AM

Is this an indication of interest?  If so I will meet you tomorrow, and we can put $100K to work.  Is that enough, or do you high rollers only deal in 7 figures?
If so, I am SURE I can locate counterparties to the trade in literally any amount you want. I am dead serious.

Oh my.  We can meet tomorrow?  $100k?  Is that enough?  Dead Serious?  At sundown?  In the town square?  Dead Serious?

You sound dead serious.  Why do I get the feeling that in another time, you would be asking for a duel?
Do you work at Pimco?  Or does a close relative work at Pimco?

I am interested, but not in your wager.  I am interested in the passion and intensity of your statements.
You would LOVE, (your CAPS), to make a bet?  And in ANY, (again your CAPS), amount?

According to your post, it was written at 9:14pm on Friday night and you were able to get $100k by the next day, Saturday.  I am interested in how you would do that?  Seriously.  I am not able to access $100k on a Saturday with notice from late Friday night.  Truly, I think the most I could access in that particular time period would be the limit on my ATM card.  But, like you said, how many EA’s are on the Forbes 400 list?  Not many we might agree.  How does one, either on or not on the Forbes 400 list, access such sums on a Friday night?  I probably do not run in the same circles as you, but upon reflection, I can not think of anybody in my sphere who could do that.  From late Friday night to Saturday day would imply cash on hand, would it not?

And I am still intrigued by your suggestion of ANY amount?  I am trying to imagine when I might declare such, and I can not.  Such an offer would imply that I can match any amount proffered, and how could I know that?  Even if I had an unlimited draw, as you seem to, I would not think to offer ANY amount, unless I was overcome with emotion.
Why the animosity?  Hostility?
Do you work at Pimco?
You are SURE you can locate counterparties to the trade in literally any amount I want?  Wow!
You have some impressive contacts.  Any amount again?  How would you locate these counterparties?  Your rolodex?  Your email list?  Maybe just your Blackberry?  Again, we obviously run in different circles.
Would your contacts be as fervent?
Maybe they would work at Pimco?

Just for giggles, if I was interested in your wager, what type of odds would you give me?

Cap - Do you work for Pimco?

Since you pulled the whose D*** is bigger card by trying to big league me with the can you match my trades questions. I figured I would respond in like kind.  I find your endless and baseless predictions of the collapse of the federal reserve,  fractional reserve banking, company xyz, tiresome, and thought it appropriate to call bullshit on this absurd and extraordinarily confident prediction. Obviously I got your attention.

Yes, it does imply cash on hand. Since the average investor is currently 33% cash on average (according to UBS research), there is more cash than usual sitting idle (just not as much as there used to be).

We’ve been around the bend on a few topics in the past (I recall having some rather strong differences of opinion on macro economics). I guess I just don’t like your style.

I do not think I have ever predicted the collapse of the Federal Reserve, or fractional reserve banking.  Actually, I think I can find the post where I predicted that the Federal Reserve will continue to exist, just the opposite of what you say I have predicted.  I think I have said a free market is not possible with the existence of the Federal Reserve and fractional reserve banking.  And the FR and frb are responsible for much of the present financial misery.

Do you think I have been wrong about the public companies and banks that I have predicted would collapse or go bankrupt?

And I did not ask if you can match my trades.  I asked why you thought you could match my trades?  I find it curious that you would assume that you could match my trades, as I would not assume that about anyone.  I am curious as to what sort thinks he can bet ANY amount.  I am also curious how one gets a hold of $100k on a Friday night, and you did make that clear to me.  You imply to have $100k in cash.

Where did I write that I am extraordinarily confident that Pimco will collapse?  I think I wrote that Pimco will collapse.  Where do you get the extraordinarily confident?  What did I write that gave you that impression?  If you had asked, I would tell you that I think it more likely than not, and if you asked if I was extraordinarily confident, I would say no.  I am curious as to why you feel it necessary to misrepresent my writing in order to get yourself upset.

Is it possible you are adding to what I have written based on your own emotions and not what I have written?  It appears so.

Yes, I remember our different run ins.  And I am speculating that what you like least of all is that you are more often wrong than right, and the current events are shining a light for you on just how wrong you have been.

So, do you work for Pimco?

And what about those odds?

Here’s a recap:

1. A - PIMCO “will” collapse in 1.5 to 2 years. With the phrase “It will” repeated.  That is not “it might”, or “there is a chance”.  To me that means extraordinarily confident.
2. CW - Care to put some money on that?
3. A - Huh?
4. CW - I just wanted to clarify how overconfident and uninformed that statement appears by involving money.
5. A - You can’t match my trades!
6. CW - Uh, yes I can (thanks to that Rolodex you mentioned).  And if you are truly seeking this type of exposure, you’ve got it.
7. A - Oh yeah?
8. CW - Yeah
9. And so forth.

As for being more wrong than right, I can only respond with, “Methinks thou doth protest too much”.

Disclosure: I went 50% cash in January 2008, with the rest in a mix of international and domestic equities (ouch).  I guess I was half right last year.  So to answer your question, I am not troubled by being more wrong than right (though there is plenty of room for improvement).  That probably also clears up why I have so much cash on hand.

awgee - 17 February 2009 03:02 PM

Roo - 17 February 2009 06:58 AM

What does all this have to do with “Newport Beach Prices Dropping”?

A good chunk of Newport Beach private party wealth is invested through Pimco.

How do you know this? Do you work for PIMCO?

CapitalismWorks - 17 February 2009 06:12 PM

awgee - 17 February 2009 03:02 PM

Roo - 17 February 2009 06:58 AM

What does all this have to do with “Newport Beach Prices Dropping”?

A good chunk of Newport Beach private party wealth is invested through Pimco.

How do you know this? Do you work for PIMCO?

I do not work for Pimco.  Do you?

So like your predictions, your knowledge of how Newport Beach residents invest is pure speculation.  Do I have that right, or am I missing something?

If you really want to know who I am, PM me.

Oh well… Read this hoping to see juicy stories of multi-$$$$ foreclosures…

Was going to side with CW, you know, PIMO being an advisory firm, not borrowing in its name and all. But then figured he must indeed work for PIMCO, and figured the hubris demonstrated here just may bring them down despite all odds.

I can arbitrate your argument aganst a payment of 10% of the above cash monies. I take mine in unmarked 3-month T-bills, just like the BOND MARKET in which PIMCO invests.

CapitalismWorks - 18 February 2009 02:26 AM

So like your predictions, your knowledge of how Newport Beach residents invest is pure speculation.  Do I have that right, or am I missing something?

If you really want to know who I am, PM me.

I have clients who live in NB and are invested through Pimco.  I have two friends/acquaintances who are former Pimco employees.  Is my knowledge actually pure speculation and not knowledge?  I tend to call it speculation based on what I observe, read, and know.  Were you missing something?  I dunno.

So, what about those odds?  10:1?
And ANY amount?
ANY?
How about a nickel?  $0.05?  That is the standard bet in my family?

I will give you 10 to 1, but let’s make it $1.  Shall we set the tenor as 2 years beginning March 1st?  Of course the question is how shall we define a default given that PIMCO is not publicly traded and has no outstanding debt (this is the part that lead to my “hubris” regarding the future of the firm)?  I am open to suggestions.

CapitalismWorks - 18 February 2009 04:30 PM

I will give you 10 to 1, but let’s make it $1.  Shall we set the tenor as 2 years beginning March 1st?  Of course the question is how shall we define a default given that PIMCO is not publicly traded and has no outstanding debt (this is the part that lead to my “hubris” regarding the future of the firm)?  I am open to suggestions.

Okay.  No odds.  One cup of coffee.

Darn, Pimco has no outstanding debt?  Oops, my bad.  It looks like I will owe you no matter.  But, 2 years from March 1st sounds good.

That is going to be one tasty cup of coffee!  I just hope Coffee Bean is still around then…

awgee, here is a hint, define “blow up” as “lost >75% of assets under management”

PIMCO does not have financial leverage, but has operating leverage—typical such firms have ~60% payroll/revenues ratio. Payroll is its capital equipment, its highly paid smart people will walk if it can’t pay them. They won’t stay for job satisfaction either—there won’t be any when the pie starts shrinking.

Plus, with all the entanglements these days in financial dealings with the government, changing regulatory minefield, SEC seeking to redeem itself, Michael Moore making a movie, there are plenty of risks beyond defaulting on debt.

earthbm - 18 February 2009 07:02 PM

awgee, here is a hint, define “blow up” as “lost >75% of assets under management”

Oh snap.  This has become a tag-team event.

earthbm - 18 February 2009 02:27 AM

Oh well… Read this hoping to see juicy stories of multi-$$$$ foreclosures…

Was going to side with CW, you know, PIMO being an advisory firm, not borrowing in its name and all. But then figured he must indeed work for PIMCO, and figured the hubris demonstrated here just may bring them down despite all odds.

I can arbitrate your argument aganst a payment of 10% of the above cash monies. I take mine in unmarked 3-month T-bills, just like the BOND MARKET in which PIMCO invests.

Oh well… Always fun when a $100k bet turns into a $1 bet…

CapitalismWorks - 18 February 2009 06:39 PM

That is going to be one tasty cup of coffee!  I just hope Coffee Bean is still around then…

Wait…do you work at Coffee Bean?  Say it ain’t so!  I love your vanilla lattes.

ok, NPB under $300/sf (land extra)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Newport-Beach/2107-Aralia-St-92660/home/4639331

2107 Aralia St Newport Beach, CA 92660
Price: $650,000
Beds:    5
Baths:    2
Sq. Ft.:    2,246
$/Sq. Ft.:    $289
Lot Size:    8,056 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:  Single Family Residence
Style:  Cape Cod
Year Built:  1965
Stories:  1
Area:  East Bluff - Harbor View
County:    Orange
MLS#:    U9000687
Source:    SoCalMLS
Status:    Active
On Redfin:    13 days
Enlarged Lusk A plan expanded to 5 bedrooms. Single level with large family room/kitchen plus cozy fireplace. Formal living room opens to side garden. Private cul-de-sac location. Irvine Company leasehold, current land purchase is $389,500, monthly lease is $791.59 if purchased as a leasehold property. Property can be purchased with or without the land. Lease expires 2040. Great opportunity to own a single family home in Newport Beach for a great price! This is a short sale - all terms, conditions and commissions are subject to lender approval. Property sold in ‘AS IS’ condition.

freedomCM - 23 February 2009 04:47 AM

ok, NPB under $300/sf (land extra)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Newport-Beach/2107-Aralia-St-92660/home/4639331

2107 Aralia St Newport Beach, CA 92660
Price: $650,000
Beds:    5
Baths:    2
Sq. Ft.:    2,246
$/Sq. Ft.:    $289
Lot Size:    8,056 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:  Single Family Residence
Style:  Cape Cod
Year Built:  1965
Stories:  1
Area:  East Bluff - Harbor View
County:    Orange
MLS#:    U9000687
Source:    SoCalMLS
Status:    Active
On Redfin:    13 days
Enlarged Lusk A plan expanded to 5 bedrooms. Single level with large family room/kitchen plus cozy fireplace. Formal living room opens to side garden. Private cul-de-sac location. Irvine Company leasehold, current land purchase is $389,500, monthly lease is $791.59 if purchased as a leasehold property. Property can be purchased with or without the land. Lease expires 2040. Great opportunity to own a single family home in Newport Beach for a great price! This is a short sale - all terms, conditions and commissions are subject to lender approval. Property sold in ‘AS IS’ condition.

When I saw this one a couple of weeks ago I got hopeful about prices in NB, until I saw the crazy land purchase and that this is a fixer.  Maybe not a bad deal, but not a good deal.

freedomCM - 23 February 2009 04:47 AM

ok, NPB under $300/sf (land extra)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Newport-Beach/2107-Aralia-St-92660/home/4639331

2107 Aralia St Newport Beach, CA 92660
Price: $650,000
Beds:    5
Baths:    2
Sq. Ft.:    2,246
$/Sq. Ft.:    $289
Lot Size:    8,056 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:  Single Family Residence
Style:  Cape Cod
Year Built:  1965
Stories:  1
Area:  East Bluff - Harbor View
County:    Orange
MLS#:    U9000687
Source:    SoCalMLS
Status:    Active
On Redfin:    13 days
Enlarged Lusk A plan expanded to 5 bedrooms. Single level with large family room/kitchen plus cozy fireplace. Formal living room opens to side garden. Private cul-de-sac location. Irvine Company leasehold, current land purchase is $389,500, monthly lease is $791.59 if purchased as a leasehold property. Property can be purchased with or without the land. Lease expires 2040. Great opportunity to own a single family home in Newport Beach for a great price! This is a short sale - all terms, conditions and commissions are subject to lender approval. Property sold in ‘AS IS’ condition.

Its just OVER my target price.  I’ll see what I can do….  I orig. goal was around 500-550k that way the residual money left in interest bearing accounts would pay for taxes, repairs, etc. etc. etc.

Oh well… maybe in a few months or so.
-bix

biscuitninja - 23 February 2009 05:43 AM

freedomCM - 23 February 2009 04:47 AM

ok, NPB under $300/sf (land extra)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Newport-Beach/2107-Aralia-St-92660/home/4639331

2107 Aralia St Newport Beach, CA 92660
Price: $650,000
Beds:    5
Baths:    2
Sq. Ft.:    2,246
$/Sq. Ft.:    $289
Lot Size:    8,056 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:  Single Family Residence
Style:  Cape Cod
Year Built:  1965
Stories:  1
Area:  East Bluff - Harbor View
County:    Orange
MLS#:    U9000687
Source:    SoCalMLS
Status:    Active
On Redfin:    13 days
Enlarged Lusk A plan expanded to 5 bedrooms. Single level with large family room/kitchen plus cozy fireplace. Formal living room opens to side garden. Private cul-de-sac location. Irvine Company leasehold, current land purchase is $389,500, monthly lease is $791.59 if purchased as a leasehold property. Property can be purchased with or without the land. Lease expires 2040. Great opportunity to own a single family home in Newport Beach for a great price! This is a short sale - all terms, conditions and commissions are subject to lender approval. Property sold in ‘AS IS’ condition.

Its just OVER my target price.  I’ll see what I can do….  I orig. goal was around 500-550k that way the residual money left in interest bearing accounts would pay for taxes, repairs, etc. etc. etc.

Oh well… maybe in a few months or so.
-bix

That’s one of the areas I want to live in when I retire. Low key old money.