usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

When do you think it will collapse?

how many people work at pimpco?  or is that just a leading indicator?

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

Because the bond market is next to go, and no amount of hedging will protect them, and the premises and assumptions PIMCO has been using are flawed and about to become exposed.

MBS will become an attractive investment

Stuff It - 09 February 2009 07:50 PM

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

When do you think it will collapse?

Within 2 years, maybe 1 and 1/2.

awgee - 09 February 2009 08:40 PM

Stuff It - 09 February 2009 07:50 PM

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

When do you think it will collapse?

Within 2 years, maybe 1 and 1/2.

Wow, I’m surprised by that prediction. A friend works for them, they have definitely done some restructuring in the past 3 months. They’ve eliminated some positions, my friend’s position was deemed “redundant” but they offered her another job in another department at a 5% pay cut which she snapped up quickly. I think the people over there are pretty smart and may be able to weather this with further reductions in staff, but Awgee, you know more than me, so I’m inclined to believe you.

.

I’m going to make the bold statement and say PIMCO will not fail.

Remember, Gross shakes hands with the gov’t. 

I could be wrong, but again this is just my humble opinion

sell4u - 09 February 2009 09:44 PM

I’m going to make the bold statement and say PIMCO will not fail.

Remember, Gross shakes hands with the gov’t. 

I could be wrong, but again this is just my humble opinion

Sell, it is not so bold to say that PIMCO will not fail.  You will probably not find one person in here or in 1000 that will agree with me.

skek - 09 February 2009 09:09 PM

With great fear and trepidation, I am going to disagree with awgee on this one.  PIMCO is politically connected—they are one of the four (?) firms retained by the government to manage the TARP program with probably more govt contracts to come.  More than anything else, their investment strategy is to figure out where the government is going to provide its support and get there first.  They will certainly suffer like the rest of us, but I would be shocked to see them collapse to any meaningful extent.

Awgee, you have my blessing to to point back to this post and gloat if the future proves you right.

They are connected.
And they are the smartest.
And the Fed will buy ten years in an effort to keep interest rates low.
And the Fed will fail, along with PIMCO.

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

I’m curious as well.  I am well aware of the debacle with the banks and investment banks, but don’t know any reason for PIMCO to collapse…

how much FNM and FRE do they hold now?  $2T?

Newport Beach will crash regardless of PIMCO’s existence.  Incomes here do not match the asking prices.  Something has to give.  Short sales are already dotting the landscape.  Significant REO inventory should be hitting the market later this summer.

$250/sqft in NB, make note of it.

why?  you think that is some kind of floor?

depending on the neighborhood, prices were much, much lower than that in the 90s, and will be again.

freedomCM - 12 February 2009 08:07 PM

why?  you think that is some kind of floor?

depending on the neighborhood, prices were much, much lower than that in the 90s, and will be again.

Newport Beach under $250?  Price might have been lower in 80’s also…but it doesn’t mean much.

Does the statement assume you will find one deal at $250 or is it that most homes will be available around that price.

i say the nineties because that was the last time that folks i NPB seemed to share the same reality that I live in.

here is a prime, bay view home, 3ksf.  just because they think that it tripled in the past six years doesn’t make it so.

NPB prices are just insane.  they’ve barely dropped.  they are going to drop. 

Property History for 1000 W Wind Way
Date   Event   Price   Appreciation   Source
Feb 12, 2009   Price Changed   $1,900,000   —  SoCalMLS #U8000168
Mar 18, 2008   Price Changed   $2,195,000   —  SoCalMLS #U8000168
Feb 27, 2008   Price Changed   $2,795,000   —  SoCalMLS #U8000168
Feb 01, 2008   Price Changed   $2,995,000   —  SoCalMLS #U8000168
Jan 11, 2008   Listed   $3,095,000   —  SoCalMLS #U8000168
Dec 22, 2007   Listed   *  —  Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Mar 17, 2004   Sold   $1,919,000   31.4%/yr   Public Records
Mar 04, 2002   Sold   $1,100,000   4.8%/yr   Public Records
Jul 23, 1996   Sold   $844,000   -2.0%/yr   Public Records
Sep 30, 1994   Sold   $875,000   2.7%/yr   Public Records
Dec 22, 1988   Sold   $750,000

.

skek - 13 February 2009 08:52 PM

IIRC, W Wind Way is a big time short sale, too.  It’s also the house that Bren’s mother used to own, and where John Wayne would play poker!

Was he any good?

Nixon was.

awgee - 09 February 2009 08:40 PM

Stuff It - 09 February 2009 07:50 PM

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

When do you think it will collapse?

Within 2 years, maybe 1 and 1/2.

Care to put any money on this claim? I’d LOVE to take the other side, and in ANY amount you would like.

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 02:56 AM

awgee - 09 February 2009 08:40 PM

Stuff It - 09 February 2009 07:50 PM

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

When do you think it will collapse?

Within 2 years, maybe 1 and 1/2.

Care to put any money on this claim? I’d LOVE to take the other side, and in ANY amount you would like.

Huh?  Why?

awgee - 14 February 2009 03:12 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 02:56 AM

awgee - 09 February 2009 08:40 PM

Stuff It - 09 February 2009 07:50 PM

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

When do you think it will collapse?

Within 2 years, maybe 1 and 1/2.

Care to put any money on this claim? I’d LOVE to take the other side, and in ANY amount you would like.

Huh?  Why?

I thought you might be interested in taking up a short position in a non-public entity…

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 03:32 AM

awgee - 14 February 2009 03:12 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 02:56 AM

awgee - 09 February 2009 08:40 PM

Stuff It - 09 February 2009 07:50 PM

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

When do you think it will collapse?

Within 2 years, maybe 1 and 1/2.

Care to put any money on this claim? I’d LOVE to take the other side, and in ANY amount you would like.

Huh?  Why?

I thought you might be interested in taking up a short position in a non-public entity…

No thank you.  But it is a kind offer.  I think Pimco will fail, but am not so sure of it’s failure that I am willing to put money on the idea.  For the most part, I only put money on what I perceive to be extremely probable.

Cap, when I take an investment position, do you think you even have the amount to cover the other side?

awgee - 14 February 2009 03:39 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 03:32 AM

awgee - 14 February 2009 03:12 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 02:56 AM

awgee - 09 February 2009 08:40 PM

Stuff It - 09 February 2009 07:50 PM

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

When do you think it will collapse?

Within 2 years, maybe 1 and 1/2.

 

Care to put any money on this claim? I’d LOVE to take the other side, and in ANY amount you would like.

Huh?  Why?

I thought you might be interested in taking up a short position in a non-public entity…

No thank you.  But it is a kind offer.  I think Pimco will fail, but am not so sure of it’s failure that I am willing to put money on the idea.  For the most part, I only put money on what I perceive to be extremely probable.

Cap, when I take an investment position, do you think you even have the amount to cover the other side?

Don’t get ahead of yourself little buddy.  Last time I checked there weren’t any EAs on the Forbes 400.

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 06:04 AM

awgee - 14 February 2009 03:39 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 03:32 AM

awgee - 14 February 2009 03:12 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 02:56 AM

awgee - 09 February 2009 08:40 PM

Stuff It - 09 February 2009 07:50 PM

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

When do you think it will collapse?

Within 2 years, maybe 1 and 1/2.

 

Care to put any money on this claim? I’d LOVE to take the other side, and in ANY amount you would like.

Huh?  Why?

I thought you might be interested in taking up a short position in a non-public entity…

No thank you.  But it is a kind offer.  I think Pimco will fail, but am not so sure of it’s failure that I am willing to put money on the idea.  For the most part, I only put money on what I perceive to be extremely probable.

Cap, when I take an investment position, do you think you even have the amount to cover the other side?

Don’t get ahead of yourself little buddy.  Last time I checked there weren’t any EAs on the Forbes 400.

So, do you?

awgee - 14 February 2009 06:07 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 06:04 AM

awgee - 14 February 2009 03:39 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 03:32 AM

awgee - 14 February 2009 03:12 AM

CapitalismWorks - 14 February 2009 02:56 AM

awgee - 09 February 2009 08:40 PM

Stuff It - 09 February 2009 07:50 PM

usctrojanman29 - 09 February 2009 07:41 PM

awgee - 09 February 2009 05:01 PM

More than a few posts have expounded on the stickiness of prices in Newport Beach and Irvine.  Many very good reasons have been given for the slower downward price movement in these areas and they all seem reasonable.

And some folks are daring enough to give reasons why prices will stay sticky in these areas or why prices will eventually fall at the same rate as other areas or even faster.

Here is my prediction for when prices will fall hard in Newport Beach, and by extension, Irvine.
Prices will collapse, yes collapse, in Newport Beach when PIMCO collapses.  And it will.

Why do you think PIMCO will collapse?

When do you think it will collapse?

Within 2 years, maybe 1 and 1/2.

 

Care to put any money on this claim? I’d LOVE to take the other side, and in ANY amount you would like.

Huh?  Why?

I thought you might be interested in taking up a short position in a non-public entity…

No thank you.  But it is a kind offer.  I think Pimco will fail, but am not so sure of it’s failure that I am willing to put money on the idea.  For the most part, I only put money on what I perceive to be extremely probable.

Cap, when I take an investment position, do you think you even have the amount to cover the other side?

Don’t get ahead of yourself little buddy.  Last time I checked there weren’t any EAs on the Forbes 400.

So, do you?

Is this an indication of interest?  If so I will meet you tomorrow, and we can put $100K to work.  Is that enough, or do you high rollers only deal in 7 figures?