Greenspan Sees Growth Slowing as Stocks ‘Flatten Out’

Greenspan as he realizes he soiled his depends.

“The odds are that we flatten out, even though earnings are doing very well,” Greenspan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, referring to the equity market. That flattening out will probably “put some sort of dull face” on the economy in 2010, he added.

I’m bullish now! Time to buy… buy… buy… anything that moves! Buy it!

Greenspan said he expects the economy to grow at a 3 percent to 4 percent annual pace in the next sixth months before slowing down. As a result, unemployment isn’t likely to decline much from last month’s 9.7 percent rate, he said. Even so, he doesn’t expect the economy to relapse into recession next year.

Nevermind… this is the same dolt who never saw this coming and was a failed economic businessman prior to being the Fed chief. I remain bearish to flat as unemployment will rise above 10% some time in Q1 2010. I just hope John Paulson doesn’t pay for the same crap he spews to the press.

The author of this piece sounds like a homeowner in denial.

More signs this housing rebound is real

That’s my take on the spate of mostly encouraging local and national real estate numbers that just came out.

The S&P/Case Shiller home-price index, which tracks 20 major metro markets, posted its biggest gain since 2005, rising 1.2 percent in July.

Boston prices rose another 1.2 percent. (Seasonally adjusted, it is a smaller, .6 percent gain.) Overall, Boston home prices are off just 4.9 percent from last year, compared to more than 34 percent in Las Vegas, Case-Shiller reports.

The local numbers also looked solid. The Warren Group reported that single family home sales were up 2 percent, year-over-year, in August, while the Massachusetts Association of Realtors cited a smaller, .4 percent gain.

Median sale prices for the state appear to be firmly back over $300,000 again.

Still, don’t expect that will stop the doom-and-gloomers. After all, it was just a week or two ago bank analyst Meredith Whitney was touting her prediction of another, 25 percent drop in home prices.

That kind of collapse looks increasingly implausible, though there are still lots of things to fret about, if you are so inclined.

While the trends appear headed upward, much of this rebound is being financed by Uncle Sam. There are the billions being poured into that first-time buyer tax credit, not counting the even more vast sums the Federal Reserve is spending to prop up the mortgage market.

As the Fed and the Treasury start to slowly pull the plug on all these subsidies, will the market keep flying on its own or go into a tailspin?

And that’s before we get into the ongoing foreclosure crisis, which, with still rising unemployment, appears to have gotten a second wind.

That said, maybe it’s time for a little optimism. At least it no longer looks like Armageddon out there.

IrvineRenter - 02 October 2009 02:54 AM

That said, maybe it’s time for a little optimism. At least it no longer looks like Armageddon out there.

It doesn’t?  It looks exactly the same as it did 13 months ago, with a couple of layers of clothing ripped off!

no_vaseline - 02 October 2009 01:29 PM

IrvineRenter - 02 October 2009 02:54 AM

That said, maybe it’s time for a little optimism. At least it no longer looks like Armageddon out there.

It doesn’t?  It looks exactly the same as it did 13 months ago, with a couple of layers of clothing ripped off!

Have to agree with N0_Vas.  The only difference I see is that overall debt has increased and debt has been transferred from private to the taxpayers.

Disclaimer: I’m a noob and a nobody. Sorry if this is off-topic. Let me know, and I’ll start a new topic if that is appropriate.

All that said, I want to put out a claim that the markets are now at the top!

What do you guys think? Is this 7-month bear rally behavior going to continue heading up? Is it even normal for a bear rally to last this long?

I failed to mention a number with my claim on Friday, 10-09-2009. The DJIA closed at 9864.94.

The DJIA closed at 9885.80 on Monday,10-12-09 so I lose.

Still, I’ll be very interested to see where things go from here, especially after the bank earnings come out.

I am game.  I think the markets will see a relativly mild retrace (9400-9500) but will eventully pierce the 10,000 mark.  I think 11,000 is possible as there would be little overhead resistance after a move over 10,000. Hows that for puttin it out there?

WaitingToBuyByAndBy - 13 October 2009 07:09 PM

I failed to mention a number with my claim on Friday, 10-09-2009. The DJIA closed at 9864.94.

The DJIA closed at 9885.80 on Monday,10-12-09 so I lose.

Still, I’ll be very interested to see where things go from here, especially after the bank earnings come out.

If you are within a few hundred points you win.
My guess as to what the equities indexes will do next?
I do not have a clue.

If the market does turn down significantly, I wouldn’t expect it to happen until after the 3Q GDP numbers come out.  Everyone knows it’s going to be green.  If it beats 3%, that’s going to be another major dose of fuel for the bubble.

If it’s under 2%, things might get ugly.

Oxtail - 14 October 2009 03:58 AM

If the market does turn down significantly, I wouldn’t expect it to happen until after the 3Q GDP numbers come out.  Everyone knows it’s going to be green.  If it beats 3%, that’s going to be another major dose of fuel for the bubble.

If it’s under 2%, things might get ugly.

Market is gonna stay strong throughout the rest of 2009.  Intel beat earnings and we’ll be flying past 1080 tomorrow on the way to 1120 in the S&P 500.  The question is will the market have enough juice to get to 1200.

morekaos - 26 August 2009 04:44 PM

Durable Goods Orders
Released on 8/26/2009 8:30:00 AM For July, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Orders - M/M change -2.5 % 2.5 % 0.9 % to 8.0 % 4.9 %
Ex-transportation - M/M 1.1 %  0.8 %


Highlights
Aircraft orders and auto orders made for a surge in the manufacturing sector during July, another key factor suggesting that the recession has already come to an end. New orders for durable goods shot up 4.9 percent. Excluding an 18.4 percent surge in transportation, orders still rose a strong 0.8 percent. Civilian aircraft orders rose more than six fold while motor vehicle orders, likely boosted by cash for clunkers, rose 0.9 percent. Capital goods orders were extremely strong, up 9.5 percent following a 5.7 percent drop in June. The report even includes an upward revision to the prior month’s orders, to minus 1.3 percent from minus 2.2 percent. Details include big gains for primary metals, fabricated metals, computers & electronics, communication equipment, and even electrical equipment in a gain that hints at improving construction demand. Machinery orders did fall substantially but couldn’t make a dent into the capital goods reading.

Shipments of durable goods also increased, up 2.0 percent in a gain that gets third-quarter output data off to a good start. Despite all the orders and shipments, manufacturers continue to draw down inventories which fell 0.8 percent to extend a long string of declines. Watch for the inventory index in the August ISM manufacturing report which may very well jump given how heavy July’s business was. The jump in new orders has yet to move into unfilled orders which dipped 0.1 percent in the month.

The data had no significant impact on the financial markets, in part because a big gain was expected and in part because this report is often very volatile. Also, whether the gain in aircraft orders can be repeated is an open question and a retreat in this category could pull down data for August. Still, the manufacturing sector, the first to dip into recession, appears to be among the first sectors to have emerged from recession.

Tomorrows GDP has a shot at actually being POSITIVE….we shall see

OK, I was off by 2 months. GDP +3%

Stocks rise sharply in early trading after better-than-expected GDP report