xoneinax - 20 August 2009 01:56 PM

stepping_up - 20 August 2009 07:24 AM

640 Surf

$400/SF on a 6650 SF lot in that part of CM ?  Seems a bit high; lets see what the market says.

most of the sales in that neighborhood over the past year have been in the mid 300s/sf.

I guess it will depend on how “lite and bite” and “turnkey” the thing is after the renovations.

Okay… I’m too lazy to search for a better Costa Mesa thread to post this in, but since I know you CM fans will see it here, and how I know you will find it interesting… Then you will forgive me. So… I’m scanning through the foreclosures at the Placentia auction, and I stopped to drool over the Newport home one block from the water on 35th got postponed to October… sigh. And then… I see a $20M+ property in CM, but there is no address, it just says northwest corner of Newport and 19th. Well here is the NW corner…

Heh… notice the for lease sign on the bottom left… Who told me CRE was going to be fine back in 07 and even 08?

For a moment I though this was the back view of Triangle Square itself, which does have its own problems keeping tenants !

This is right across the street; I think the bottom floor is sometimes a club on Friday and Saturday nites.

[quote author=“freedomCM” date=“1250830967]most of the sales in that neighborhood over the past year have been in the mid 300s/sf.

I know you are correct, but somehow this looks more dumpy than those others.  I mean how hard would it be to paint the concrete patio ?  Cant something decent be found at $400/SF over in Santa Ana/Newport Heights ?  I guess the 8k incentive will make people jump on this.

You can obviously get $400/sq foot if you buy a larger home in Newport Heights, but if you look at 1000 sq ft tear downs you are still looking at something like $800/sq foot on a 6000 sq foot lot.  There are some obvious exceptions on tiny lots for tear downs, for instance the REO on the 400 block of Irvine Ave.

graphrix - 20 August 2009 05:13 PM

Okay… I’m too lazy to search for a better Costa Mesa thread to post this in, but since I know you CM fans will see it here, and how I know you will find it interesting… Then you will forgive me. So… I’m scanning through the foreclosures at the Placentia auction, and I stopped to drool over the Newport home one block from the water on 35th got postponed to October… sigh. And then… I see a $20M+ property in CM, but there is no address, it just says northwest corner of Newport and 19th. Well here is the NW corner…

Heh… notice the for lease sign on the bottom left… Who told me CRE was going to be fine back in 07 and even 08?

Have you been in this building?  It is really beautiful, and they clearly dumped alot of money into it, but the layout is awful.  I have some friends who have medical offices in the building and patients can’t find their way to the office.  Walking the halls I noticed alot of real estate related tenants, so it is no surprise that vacancies are up.

xoneinax - 20 August 2009 05:40 PM

For a moment I though this was the back view of Triangle Square itself, which does have its own problems keeping tenants !

This is right across the street; I think the bottom floor is sometimes a club on Friday and Saturday nites.

Wasn’t Club Vegas in that property before they shut down?

1901 Newport is an awesome building that has had a very hard time keeping tenants due to the layout, access and parking. Club Vegas was in there, and the Turnip Rose banquet facility is still there.  The City is very interested in keeping it and has proposed architectural and landscaping features in the public right of way to complement the 1901 Newport aesthetic.  There is a nice condo complex behind there that is dying on the vine, running newspaper ads trying to get buyers.  Again, tough spot to get to due to the end of the 55 gridlock.  Thanks, Newport!

The Costa Mesa house situation is frustrating at best. I’ve been looking for well over a year, and the vast majority of affordable homes are piles of sticks waiting to collapse, in terrible neighborhoods dominated by landlords who let renters shove multiple families in small SFRs, or short sales/REOs that are terribly difficult to buy.  A recent phenomenon has been the listing agent stunt of listing a nice house low in order to prompt bidding wars.  Look at 3100 Van Buren or 3099 Warren Lane for examples.  I went to look at 2054 National, listed at $320,000, and had to literally wait in line with 20 other people to look at the house during the showing.  It was completey as is - nothing had been done since it was built in 1953, the kitchen was so small that they knocked out the wall between the garage and kitchen and built an enclosure for the refrigerator - rendering the garage unusable as a garage - but the demand was insane.  We also looked at 2060 President, which allegedly sold recently, and the place was an absolute pile.  We entered escrow on a place that will remain unidentified, but has major unpermitted work which makes obtaining a loan impossible, so we will walk away - good luck to the sellers, they’re nice folks.

I’m waiting for the “wave” of foreclosures to finally correct the Westside CM market - that 640 Surf property is awful, and that street does not justify that price, IMHO.

Hah, that is so funny,

A leftover from the prior S&L crisis is in foreclosure again!!!

COSTA MESA — Federal thrift regulators are expected to sell the stylish former headquarters of the defunct Pacific Savings Bank, perhaps as early as today, for more than $10 million, according to several sources.

Among a few select bidders negotiating Thursday with the Resolution Trust Corp. for the Spanish-colonial-style office building was Nick Shammas of Los Angeles, who owns eight automobile dealerships and numerous office and other real estate properties in downtown Los Angeles and Orange County.

the story

I remember working as a temp in the summer of 1991 at Columbia Savings on Von Karman, photocopying residential RE docs in preparation for foreclosure filings.  Almost all were South OC, interesting stuff.

freedomCM - 21 August 2009 11:57 AM

Hah, that is so funny,

A leftover from the prior S&L crisis is in foreclosure again!!!

COSTA MESA — Federal thrift regulators are expected to sell the stylish former headquarters of the defunct Pacific Savings Bank, perhaps as early as today, for more than $10 million, according to several sources.

Among a few select bidders negotiating Thursday with the Resolution Trust Corp. for the Spanish-colonial-style office building was Nick Shammas of Los Angeles, who owns eight automobile dealerships and numerous office and other real estate properties in downtown Los Angeles and Orange County.

the story

Nice find! I love watching history repeat itself, just like I said it would… when people/bulls would tell me that I am crazy and that I have no idea what I am talking about.

Late reporters push sales back to peak in July

Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , and PUDs (condo/detached)

Month…....Sales…....Price…....SE….......CS=.........SEM….................................equivalent date
JFM:............15…......479…......22…....182….........8…......(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10…......491…......14…....188….........7…......(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27…......532…......15…....184….........5…...........................................Mar 2004
June:...........26…......548…......21…....181….........5…...........................................Feb 2004
July:............37…......516…......17…....184 ...........5…...........................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47…......548…......15…....191….........5…...........................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37…......548…......23…....177….........4…...........................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39…......538…......20…....180….........4…...........................................Feb 2004
Nov…...........29…......518…......25…....180….........6…...........................................Feb 2004
Dec…............40….....460…......16…....162….........3…...........................................Aug 2003
Jan…............20…......516…......27…....161….........4…..........................................Aug 2003
Feb…...........28…......553….......33…....167….........4…..........................................Sept 2003
Mar…...........43…......510…......43….....179….........5…..........................................Jan 2004
Apr…...........45…......520…......19…......172…........4…...........................................Dec 2003
May…...........47…......535…......28….....176…........4…...........................................Dec 2003
June…..........59…......550…......17….....176…........3…...........................................Dec 2003
July….….…58….….525….….22……176….……3….….….….….….….….….….…..Dec 2003

I initially wrote:

Is the “spring bounce” ending in Costa Mesa?  Total sales dropped back down to winter levels, while the median ($526k) has also notched back down, while the mean ($552k) was sustained due to a few high priced houses ($1125k, $843k, $795k).  Excluding those, the sales prices were tight again (range $339-$720k).  But at CS=175, the CS values have basically not moved in over a year. 

But there were a bunch of late reporting sales that boosted the total sales back up near 60, the peak volume for the 18 months.

Finally, sorry for the delayed updates, but we moved to a (rented) condo in AV (Laguna Audubon) and have a new addition to the family, so sleep is at a premium now!

freedomCM - 16 October 2009 06:47 PM

Finally, sorry for the delayed updates, but we moved to a (rented) condo in AV (Laguna Audubon) and have a new addition to the family, so sleep is at a premium now!

congratulations

Nude - 16 October 2009 07:09 PM

freedomCM - 16 October 2009 06:47 PM

Finally, sorry for the delayed updates, but we moved to a (rented) condo in AV (Laguna Audubon) and have a new addition to the family, so sleep is at a premium now!

congratulations

Ditto on the congrats, but I can’t believe you kept us in the dark! I’m referring to the addition, not the july numbers

Thanks!  We thought that we would have three weeks after the move to unpack.  Surprise!  We had one day of rest after the move before Elissa arrived.

Riding the sales wave up-market in Costa Mesa  plus a few NPB sales this month!

Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , and PUDs (condo/detached)

Month…....Sales…....Price…....SE….......CS=.........SEM….................................equivalent date
JFM:............15…......479…......22…....182….........8…......(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10…......491…......14…....188….........7…......(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27…......532…......15…....184….........5…...........................................Mar 2004
June:...........26…......548…......21…....181….........5…...........................................Feb 2004
July:............37…......516…......17…....184 ...........5…...........................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47…......548…......15…....191….........5…...........................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37…......548…......23…....177….........4…...........................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39…......538…......20…....180….........4…...........................................Feb 2004
Nov…...........29…......518…......25…....180….........6…...........................................Feb 2004
Dec…............40….....460…......16…....162….........3…...........................................Aug 2003
Jan…............20…......516…......27…....161….........4…..........................................Aug 2003
Feb…...........28…......553….......33…....167….........4…..........................................Sept 2003
Mar…...........43…......510…......43….....179….........5…..........................................Jan 2004
Apr…...........45…......520…......19…......172…........4…...........................................Dec 2003
May…...........47…......535…......28….....176…........4…...........................................Dec 2003
June…..........59…......550…......17….....176…........3…...........................................Dec 2003
July….….…..….58….….525….…..22………176……..……3….….….….….…….…..……….….…..Dec 2003
Aug..….… ..60….….560….….30……170….……4….….….….….….….….….…..Nov 2003

Wow, the sales continue to pour in at the end of the summer in CM!  August sales continued at peak levels (60 total sales) does $8k really mean that much when you are paying $600k for the house?), and the median ($613k) matched the mean ($560k) so far as hitting peak values for the year, this month not so much due to a few high priced outliers, but due to the disappearance of the lower end of the market.  While there were again some mega prices (3 sales over $1M), the surprising thing is that the previously constipated east-side sales have broken loose, and comprise almost half of all sales this month.  Despite this onslaught of sales of the “better half” of the inventory, the CS=170, the CS values have dropped slightly. 

The bottom of the market for SFRs in CM has moved from being the highly “ethnic” west-side to the more monochromatic Mesa North and state street areas.  The surge of sales of condos/PUDs on the east side has basically ended, dropping from 33% to 12% of all sales (7).  The other variety of sales that is starting to trickle in is the R2/R3 sales (4 sales).

Higher priced SFRs on the “good” part of the eastside (below 22nd street and adjacent NPB) are really picking up (12 sales versus 4 last month), but the CS values on the best of these are hard to place on these, as they have apparently been significantly expanded since the last sales.  A few lower priced (smaller/older) prime east side sales occurred ($500s to $700s, CS 175-200).  Continuing strong sales in Mesa Verde and the college park areas (CS=160-210) have trickled in, as well as more in the SouthCoast district in the same CS range.

On a more personal note, one of my “if I win the lottery” houses on Aviemore (great ocean views, 1/4 ac, 3000sf just renovated) sold for $1.6M (http://www.flaney.com/CA/Costa-Mesa/1167-Aviemore-Terrace-Costa-Mesa/S555796/)

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue, short sales are back up (9 sales) as they look to move the potential FCs, and 5 of the 14 REO sales were failed short sale attempts, suggesting the banks are getting slightly more aggressive taking back from deadbeats.  In addition, there were two new house sales and one obvious FLIP that sold, in addition to one “normal” estate sale.  Overall, at 26 of the 60 sales, must-sell products continue to represent almost half of the market.

Long time owners getting out picked back up this month.  Eight of the sales were clearly “in the money” (all >10x tax basis), 14/60 were probably in the money (200% to 500% of previous sale, and yet of the remaining “non-distressed sales (22/60), many of the sellers may be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases (80% to 200% of their previous sale price).  Once again, for most of this class of apparent “equity sellers”, and even most of the 200% to 500% class, the listing describe upgrades (and how many of those were paid from earnings versus HELOCs?).

Finally, I’ve been tracking listings and sales in 92663 and 92660 when they drop under $1M or so.  There haven’t really been more than a few sales, but this month there were 4 sales in west newport (three in newport shores).  Not surprisingly, the median price was high and wobbly due to the small sample $845k (+/-$113k).  Much more surprisingly, the CS=173 (+/-3), was not high, nor wobbly!

Soo…another month, is this the breakthrough into the “good inventory?

What’s next?....Time will tell…

On a more personal note, one of my “if I win the lottery” houses on Aviemore (great ocean views, 1/4 ac, 3000sf just renovated) sold for $1.6M (http://www.flaney.com/CA/Costa-Mesa/1167-Aviemore-Terrace-Costa-Mesa/S555796/)

Believe it or not, but back in the 60’s this was a starter home. My in laws first place was there and we went to look at a few months ago. MIL’s bricks that she laid 35 yrs ago were still there. Aviemore would be a dream for us, but it was their first home. I think she said they sold it for like $35K.

Graph, did that CRE building ever foreclose? My good friends have their dental office in that building. I know they just resigned their lease. I was told they got a lot of tenant improvements and a much lower rent. They had also told me one of the big tenants, a modeling agency, was their quite some time not paying a dime in rent. They’re gone now, though.

Mcdonna1980 - 17 October 2009 08:48 AM

Graph, did that CRE building ever foreclose? My good friends have their dental office in that building. I know they just resigned their lease. I was told they got a lot of tenant improvements and a much lower rent. They had also told me one of the big tenants, a modeling agency, was their quite some time not paying a dime in rent. They’re gone now, though.

Generally, if the bank forecloses on a CRE property they will keep the tenants in place until they can sell the building.  While your friends likely have a new landlord, they probably won’t be booted out.

Mcdonna1980 - 17 October 2009 08:48 AM

Graph, did that CRE building ever foreclose? My good friends have their dental office in that building. I know they just resigned their lease. I was told they got a lot of tenant improvements and a much lower rent. They had also told me one of the big tenants, a modeling agency, was their quite some time not paying a dime in rent. They’re gone now, though.

It hasn’t been foreclosed on yet, nor is it still scheduled for the month. So either it has been canned or postponed. When it pops up again I will post about it.

September….Stasis in up-market in Costa Mesa  plus a few NPB sales this month!

Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , and PUDs (condo/detached)

Month…....Sales…....Price…....SE….......CS=.........SEM….................................equivalent date
JFM:............15…......479…......22…....182….........8…......(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10…......491…......14…....188….........7…......(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27…......532…......15…....184….........5…...........................................Mar 2004
June:...........26…......548…......21…....181….........5…...........................................Feb 2004
July:............37…......516…......17…....184 ...........5…...........................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47…......548…......15…....191….........5…...........................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37…......548…......23…....177….........4…...........................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39…......538…......20…....180….........4…...........................................Feb 2004
Nov…...........29…......518…......25…....180….........6…...........................................Feb 2004
Dec…............40….....460…......16…....162….........3…...........................................Aug 2003
Jan…............20…......516…......27…....161….........4…..........................................Aug 2003
Feb…...........28…......553….......33…....167….........4…..........................................Sept 2003
Mar…...........43…......510…......43….....179….........5…..........................................Jan 2004
Apr…...........45…......520…......19…......172…........4…...........................................Dec 2003
May…...........47…......535…......28….....176…........4…...........................................Dec 2003
June…..........59…......550…......17….....176…........3…...........................................Dec 2003
July….….….….58.….….525….…..22………176……..……3….….….….….…….…..……….….…..Dec 2003
Aug..….… …..60.….….560…..….30…..…170…….……4….….….….….….……....….….…..Nov 2003
Sept..….…..53….….556…….21……180….…5….….….….….….….….….…..Jan 2004

And still the CS bubbles along, and sales stay quite high at the end of the summer in CM!  September sales dropped a smidge (53 total sales) but stayed high, and the median ($578k) as well as the mean ($556k) indicate that nice stuff is moving in Costa Mesa.  There were no mega priced sales this month, despite six of the now sold listings initially hitting the market at asking prices over $1M.  There were also very few sales under $400k, but a tight clustering of prices around the $500k range.

Sales have moved in the past few months in CM.  Now, more than half of the sales are in the “nice” parts of CM (east side/mesa verde).  The bottom of the market for SFRs in CM has moved from being the highly “ethnic” west-side to the more monochromatic Mesa North and state street areas.  The surge of sales of condos/PUDs on the east side continues to slow, being only about 20% of the market this month.  R2/R3 sales continue to trickle in (4 sales again this month).

Capitulation from the banks continues to pick up!, short sales are up again (from 9 sales last month to 15 this month) as they look to move the potential FCs, and 3 of the 14 REO sales were failed short sale attempts, suggesting the banks remain more aggressive taking back from deadbeats.  This month, continuing the trend, there was one new house and one obvious FLIP that sold.  Overall, at 29 of the 53 sales, must-sell products are now more than half of the market.

Long time owners getting out picked up this month.  Five of the sales were clearly “in the money” (all >7x tax basis), 11/53 were probably in the money (200% to 500% of previous sale, and yet of the remaining “non-distressed sales (19/53), many of the sellers may be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases (80% to 200% of their previous sale price).  Once again, for most of this class of apparent “equity sellers”, and even most of the 200% to 500% class, the listing describe upgrades (and how many of those were paid from earnings versus HELOCs?).  This means that two thirds of sellers may have had equity, but probably only one third actually did.

Finally, I’ve been tracking listings and sales in 92663 and 92660 when they drop under $1M or so.  This month there were 2 sales on balboa peninsula.  Not surprisingly, the median price was high ~ $900k).  This month, the CS =~230, fwiw….

Soo…another month, and we have definitely broken into the “good inventory.  I guess those optionARMs are starting to implode in CM

What’s next?....Time will tell…

I have noticed that many of the new listings are on the east side and prices are finally starting to come down over there, but not nearly the same percentage as they did on the west side.

many of the sellers may be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases (80% to 200% of their previous sale price).

OK, if you are selling at 200% of your purchase price, how the heck are you escaping by the skin of your teeth?

Ignoring the whole house as ATM thing, which I’m not in a position to assess…

most of the listings describe a plethora of esthetic upgrades (pergranteel), few of which I would guess were made from saved up cash, but instead from HELOCs.

it is possible that someone selling at 125% of their 2003 purchase price, after doing upgrades, is going to walk away with cash, IMHO given the excesses of the last ten years, it seems to me somewhat unlikely.

I’m looking in Costa Mesa, and have several offers in - all short sales.  The process has been a total clusterf@ck, dominated by listing agent horsepoop.  Every one is a gimmick, all designed to stimulate a bidding war.  Honestly, it is really pissing me off.  Why waste everybody’s time?

One property, a short sale listed at $399,000, is actually minimum $450,000.  I went to make an offer and my agent got right back to me and told me the listing agent said the bank wants $450,000 minimum.  If that is the case - LIST THE $@#!&^@%$ HOUSE FOR $450,000!!!!