Costa Mesa CS index takes a dive!

Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
SFR <$900k, a few nice condos

Month…....Sales…....Price…....SE….......CS=.........SEM….................................equivalent date
JFM:............15…......479…......22…....182….........8…......(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10…......491…......14…....188….........7…......(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27…......532…......15…....184….........5…...........................................Mar 2004
June:...........26…......548…......21…....181….........5…...........................................Feb 2004
July:............37…......516…......17…....184 ...........5…...........................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47…......548…......15…....191….........5…...........................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37…......548…......23…....177….........4…...........................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39…......538…......20…....180….........4…...........................................Feb 2004
Nov…...........29…......518…......25…....180….........6…...........................................Feb 2004
Dec….........38….....463….....17…...162….......3…..........................................Aug 2003

Sales volume increased back to the frenzied Fall pace, while prices continue their plunge in this final month of the year.  The mean is of course biased by the houses that I personally track (excluding lower end condos and higher end SFRs), but it does track every sale of SFRs below $900k in the market.  (I do actually track some above $900k for kicks and giggles, and finally one of them sold, on the ocean view street of Aviemore in far-west CM).

The CS values dropped dramatically this month, for the first time in a year!  The really nice stuff on the east side and Mesa Verde dropped below 200 for the first time, some nice stuff as far as 160, and the lower end of the SFR market dropped into the 150s and 140s, quite a shock after a year of not moving much at all.

I’m now wondering if this isn’t the sign of capitulation from both the banks (the sales were 50% REOs) and owners (the other half of the sellers appear to have had equity, though with MEW, who knows…).

Does this portend another 20pt drop in the CS for January?  Will CM be down to CS 100 by the summer?

Time will tell…

“Price” is down 3.3% but CS is down 13.8%?

price is mean, median is down more (sorry, spreadsheet not currently available), as there were a couple of high priced sales.

but remember, CS is same-sale comparisons historically, not so much about absolute price points.

Costa Mesa CS index dive moves upscale!

Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
SFR <$900k, a few nice condos

Month…....Sales…....Price…....SE….......CS=.........SEM….................................equivalent date
JFM:............15…......479…......22…....182….........8…......(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10…......491…......14…....188….........7…......(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27…......532…......15…....184….........5…...........................................Mar 2004
June:...........26…......548…......21…....181….........5…...........................................Feb 2004
July:............37…......516…......17…....184 ...........5…...........................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47…......548…......15…....191….........5…...........................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37…......548…......23…....177….........4…...........................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39…......538…......20…....180….........4…...........................................Feb 2004
Nov…...........29…......518…......25…....180….........6…...........................................Feb 2004
Dec…............40….....460…......16…....162….........3…...........................................Aug 2003
Jan….........20….....516….....27…...161….......4…..........................................Aug 2003

Unlike the frenzied media reports, sales volume in CM fell back below the pace of last spring, while prices, both the mean ($516k) and the median ($540k) moved up, suggesting that it is no longer the “low end” houses that are seeing a significant discount in CM.  The mean is of course biased by the houses that I personally track (excluding lower end condos and higher end SFRs), but it does track every sale of SFRs below $900k in the market.  (I do actually track some above $900k for kicks and giggles, but none of them sold in the past month).

The CS values maintained the dramatic drop of 20 points from last month.  The really nice stuff on the east side didn’t sell and Mesa Verde dropped to 180-ish for the first time, some nice stuff as far as 160, and the lower end of the SFR market stayed mostly in the 150s and 140s, but a few sales as low as 120 appeared.

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue (20% REOs, 30% Short sales) and owners (the other half of the sellers appear to have had equity, though with MEW, who knows…In fact, 35% of total sales were by owners who had purchased prior to 1997).

So we did not see another 20pt drop for the CMCS in January, but the move up of the decline in the market price-point is encouraging.  Next to come will be a thawing of sales on the East side…

Time will tell…

There have been some good foreclosures on the East side the last couple of weeks, including a couple of multi-unit properties.

And those blue dots are so pretty…

More red balls, please!

Figure at least 60% of those green and blue dots will turn into red dots in the next six months.

graphrix - 18 February 2009 12:40 AM

There have been some good foreclosures on the East side the last couple of weeks, including a couple of multi-unit properties.

And those blue dots are so pretty…

Do you have the auction info for the 3 A’s that are West of Placentia and South of Victoria?

Update for February?

coming this week.

Costa Mesa CS index continues its moves upscale!

Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , a few nice condos

Month…....Sales…....Price…....SE….......CS=.........SEM….................................equivalent date
JFM:............15…......479…......22…....182….........8…......(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10…......491…......14…....188….........7…......(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27…......532…......15…....184….........5…...........................................Mar 2004
June:...........26…......548…......21…....181….........5…...........................................Feb 2004
July:............37…......516…......17…....184 ...........5…...........................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47…......548…......15…....191….........5…...........................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37…......548…......23…....177….........4…...........................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39…......538…......20…....180….........4…...........................................Feb 2004
Nov…...........29…......518…......25…....180….........6…...........................................Feb 2004
Dec…............40….....460…......16…....162….........3…...........................................Aug 2003
Jan…............20…......516…......27…....161….........4…..........................................Aug 2003
Feb….........28….....553….....33…...167….......4…..........................................Sept 2003

Unlike the frenzied media reports, sales volume in CM remained below the pace of last summer, while prices, both the mean ($564k) and the median ($553k) moved up, and in fact there were few sales in the “bad” part of CM, and only 3 “good” condo sales.  The SFRs on the “good” part of the eastside (closer to 17th than the airport) continue to sit months and months, even with more frequent $25k to $50k price reductions happening on a monthly basis.

The CS values inched up a few points from last month, which I think reflects the ‘nicer’ mix of houses, many of which had upgrades which are hard to account for using the CS past sales mechanism.  There were a number of sales this month in the nicer “islands” like the ocean view point and the gated communities around south coast and the SA golf course, as well as continuing strong sales in Mesa Verde and the college park areas, all of which hit the 170s to 190s range.  There were even a number of sales in the northern half of the east-side (above 22nd street).  The few sales in the “bad” part of CM went as low as CS=102 (653 Surf) up to 156 (2127 Wallace).

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue (20% REOs, 20% Short sales) and owners who had equity (many of whom purchased in the 90s, though caveats about HELOCs still apply) are certainly encouraging.

Again we see no dramatic 20pt drop for the CMCS in February, but the move up of the decline in the market price-point is encouraging.  Now that it looks as if the east side is starting to move, maybe we will see the 40% off sales for the nicest properties this spring… (Though I’m sure Irvine will remain immune, eh?)

Time will tell…

freedomCM - 01 November 2008 01:15 PM

If I were more dedicated, I could create a nice website like Ipo, but…instead I’ll post summaries here.

Thanks for this service, freedomCM!  I rented for years in Costa Mesa (currently in Irvine), and have my eye on the city as a possible place to buy when the prices are right.

freedomCM - 02 November 2008 12:12 PM

CS does not adjust for inflation, though you could predict that the value would rise due to it.

Of course, then we get back to the question of for housing, what measure of inflation should we be using?  CPI?  some measure of CPI less energy?  wage inflation?

Ah, I hadn’t realized MalibuRenter was calculating the inflation-adjusted versions himself.  I believe he uses the CPI minus the Shelter category:

freedomCM - 10 November 2008 12:30 PM

(I invited Christine Donovan, above, to join in on the discussion.  She is a real estate salesperson/broker in CM.  I hope that she can add a bit of perspective here)

She has a website which I visit:  http://activerain.com/blogs/cldonovan

Cool, thanks for that link.

stepping_up - 18 November 2008 03:23 PM

The place on Arnold is a real dump. The garage is poorly converted. Nice sized lot, but it backs up to the alley there, which is highly undesirable in this part of town.

Why is that, out of curiosity?  Is there more property crime perpetrated against houses backing up alleys around there or something?

graphrix - 18 February 2009 03:54 PM

Figure at least 60% of those green and blue dots will turn into red dots in the next six months.

What do the different dots mean?  I’m not familiar with this graph.

I don’t have any confirmation that lots that back up to alleys in mixed neighborhoods are less desirable, only that they are to me. We looked at a place last year that backed up to the Norm’s parking lot. The back door had one of those heavy duty security screens, but you could see that someone had taken a crow bar to it. That was enough for me to say that I wouldn’t be 100% comfortable in a home where the bad guys can easily jump your fence.

BK had posted something earier this year that homes with easy freeway access have higher rates of burglaries because the thieves can get away more easily. I think that alleys have some similarity there.

I personally would love to back to an alley, with a large detached garage, or rental unit, off the alley.

But because they are ‘less public’, they can attract crime in some neighborhoods.

And I’m glad that someone finds my obsession with Costa Mesa house pricing useful. 

March update (with a big surprise) coming soon!

freedomCM - 07 April 2009 03:21 PM

I personally would love to back to an alley, with a large detached garage, or rental unit, off the alley.

I grew up with a home that had an alley, hated it. If you don’t have good neighbors then they will sometimes park in ways that block you in (i.e. park across from your garage so that its hard to get in or out, and parking behind your property)
If there is not a HOA setup for these homes it is sometimes difficult to get everyone to pitch in to repair the alley.

freedomCM - 07 April 2009 03:21 PM

March update (with a big surprise) coming soon!

*crossing my fingers its good news*

stepping_up - 07 April 2009 02:54 PM

BK had posted something earier this year that homes with easy freeway access have higher rates of burglaries because the thieves can get away more easily. I think that alleys have some similarity there.

Gotcha—thanks for the clarification.  Yeah, my Costa Mesa saved search on Redfin has recently turned up a number of properties that have either a major street over the back fence or a parking lot of some kind of large business (e.g. the shopping center where that Hoag women’s center is, or a car dealership), and the possibility of burglars ingressing and egressing via such a route definitely seemed worrisome to me (quite aside from the noise problems you’d have in such locations, of course).

halfnote19 - 07 April 2009 03:28 PM

I grew up with a home that had an alley, hated it. If you don’t have good neighbors then they will sometimes park in ways that block you in (i.e. park across from your garage so that its hard to get in or out, and parking behind your property)

Hmm, good point.

If there is not a HOA setup for these homes it is sometimes difficult to get everyone to pitch in to repair the alley.

Ah, and that’s typically on common land rather than city property, eh?  Interesting.  I can certainly see how Costa Mesa’s refreshing lack of HOAs in many areas could be a detriment in a case like that.

I have an alley behind my rented house in HB right now, and have no problems, so I think this is a lot of scared Irvinite paranoia.

I actually interact more with my ‘alley neighbors’ than I do with my ‘front neighbors’ and everyone is respectful, etc.  I work on my bikes with the garage door open, and wash/work on my car in the alley.  Everyone always is walking by and saying hello.

We have no crime, though we do have people driving through to get the bottles and cans regularly. 

There just isn’t that much crime in HB, CM, or any other ‘nice’ neighborhood.

I’m not paranoid.  I was a witness to a lot of property crime in one Costa Mesa apartment complex I lived in, though the other Costa Mesa places I lived at didn’t have any major problems (all the graffiti that used to appear on another property I lived at was unpleasant and worrisome, though).  Certainly it’s the case that there’s a lot more property crime and crime in general in Costa Mesa than Irvine, especially per capita.  It’s the gang violence in Costa Mesa that worries me the most, but luckily that’s mostly gang-on-gang, so unless you’re unlucky enough to be in the wrong place at the wrong time and get caught in the crossfire, it’s unlikely to affect the average resident much.

I certainly agree that crime in Costa Mesa is nothing compared to actual bad areas (e.g. in L.A.), of course.  Otherwise I wouldn’t be considering buying there.

My experience is that there is very little crime, but I suppose it is all relative.

The only place I see graffiti is around the older apartment complexes in parts of the west side and up by the 405.  There is a whole CM blog about the grafitti, and they say that almost all of it is not ‘gangs’ but tagging.

Hah, I just went and now they have a big post on tagging on the east side!  http://www.cmtruth.blogspot.com/

So my husband COMPLETELY surprised me for my 40th last month with a trip to France. I was devastated by how many of the ancient farm buildings in the countryside of Provence were tagged. Don’t crucify me for saying this, but their Arabs are much like our Hispanics and I was surprised by how many more Arabs there were since the last time I was down there.

The poor of the world are growing in population much faster than the wealthy westerners and they seek out a better life in western countries. However, a lot of the young Hispanics here and the Arabs there seem to fall into bad behavior. Low self esteem perhaps? Whatever the cause, it’s something that must be dealt with because the evidence of the problem is ruining farm structures in rural Provence as well as Costa Mesa buildings.

The other thing I’ve noticed is that the homeless population has swelled quite a bit over here. Most of them are harmless, but it’s still a problem. The women tell me one of the hardest things is having to fight off the aggressive men in the camps. A lot of them do have at least alcohol, if not drug problems and desperate people do desperate things.

Living in CDM, I never saw what I see here and felt like the least fortunate besides the house cleaners and gardeners who came to work in the work in the neighborhood. Now, I feel like we are one of the most fortunate people. The first night I was here alone I was so paranoid. I’m alone tonight, but don’t feel a bit of fear.

My next door neighbors bought their home in ‘98 and at the time were apprehensive because they weren’t sure which way the neighborhood would go. It doesn’t seem like it’s gone wildly in one direction or another, but I now wonder which direction the neighborhood will go. We’ve made our home here our little sanctuary and now I don’t want to move. Rather, we just want to keep up our little projects and enjoy what we have, but I really don’t know if it’s going to get worse here, better or stay about the same.

freedomCM - 07 April 2009 08:50 PM

There is a whole CM blog about the grafitti, and they say that almost all of it is not ‘gangs’ but tagging.

Yeah, thanks much for the recommendation—I actually discovered that blog a couple of months ago, and wished it had existed back when I was living in CM.  I really like how they interpret the different graffiti (a topic that’s always been purely opaque to me) and tell you whether it’s tagger- or gang-perpetrated.  If I had been able to look up the graffiti that kept appearing on my rental place and learn that it was done by taggers and not gang members, I would have been less concerned (though no less pissed off—I despise the sight of graffiti).

The posts in that blog also lessened my concerns about crime in general in CM.

This is 92627 only, it does not include 92626.

Green pin = NOD = preforeclosure.

Blue pin = NTS = scheduled for the foreclosure auction, but will most likely get postponed. The backlog is horrendous, but that is another topic.

Red pin = REO= bank owned.

In other words, it isn’t looking too pretty for costa mesa owners. Sorry stepping_up, love you, but it is what it is. At least you love and can afford the home you live in, and that is what I have always said that matters. You are happy, which is great.

Graph,

I was referring to the unsavory things (characters) about the neighborhood when I said I wasn’t sure which direction it will go.

What’s up with this house? There is no way in the world that the appraisal will come in anywhere near this price

919 Darrell

graphrix - 08 April 2009 01:28 AM

This is 92627 only, it does not include 92626.

Green pin = NOD = preforeclosure.

Blue pin = NTS = scheduled for the foreclosure auction, but will most likely get postponed. The backlog is horrendous, but that is another topic.

Red pin = REO= bank owned.

In other words, it isn’t looking too pretty for costa mesa owners. Sorry stepping_up, love you, but it is what it is. At least you love and can afford the home you live in, and that is what I have always said that matters. You are happy, which is great.

Well, obviously, no rush for the east side, deals will be coming for months as the comp destroyers just keep rolling in.

stepping_up - 07 April 2009 09:19 PM

So my husband COMPLETELY surprised me for my 40th last month with a trip to France. I was devastated by how many of the ancient farm buildings in the countryside of Provence were tagged. Don’t crucify me for saying this, but their Arabs are much like our Hispanics and I was surprised by how many more Arabs there were since the last time I was down there.

The poor of the world are growing in population much faster than the wealthy westerners and they seek out a better life in western countries. However, a lot of the young Hispanics here and the Arabs there seem to fall into bad behavior. Low self esteem perhaps? Whatever the cause, it’s something that must be dealt with because the evidence of the problem is ruining farm structures in rural Provence as well as Costa Mesa buildings.

The other thing I’ve noticed is that the homeless population has swelled quite a bit over here. Most of them are harmless, but it’s still a problem. The women tell me one of the hardest things is having to fight off the aggressive men in the camps. A lot of them do have at least alcohol, if not drug problems and desperate people do desperate things.

Living in CDM, I never saw what I see here and felt like the least fortunate besides the house cleaners and gardeners who came to work in the work in the neighborhood. Now, I feel like we are one of the most fortunate people. The first night I was here alone I was so paranoid. I’m alone tonight, but don’t feel a bit of fear.

My next door neighbors bought their home in ‘98 and at the time were apprehensive because they weren’t sure which way the neighborhood would go. It doesn’t seem like it’s gone wildly in one direction or another, but I now wonder which direction the neighborhood will go. We’ve made our home here our little sanctuary and now I don’t want to move. Rather, we just want to keep up our little projects and enjoy what we have, but I really don’t know if it’s going to get worse here, better or stay about the same.

I won’t crucify you for your comment, but I don’t appreciate how you are stereo typing a whole ethnicity.
Yes some of the problems may be with the Hispanics, but some of the problems are also with other races.

If you call someone stupid enough they will believe they are and start acting stupid