Too many points to argue.  But let’s just start with Northwood versus Beckman.  Have you ever checked out the school’s demographics?  Northwood has demographics almost identical to Uni.  Beckman doesn’t.  The student populations of the two schools are no where near identical.  Have you checked out the houses along Portola between Culver and Jeffery.  These homes are very nice and the kids go to Northwood.  The homes around Irvine and Woodbridge are not as nice- although still nice.

As for my point, new has a premium over old.  But that premium doesn’t not compensate for difference in location.

I admit that Irvine High has students coming in from Woodbury.  But Woodbury is less than 5 years old.  So a very small number of students from Irvine High lives in Woodbury.
I also admit that Uni does have older houses around it.  But these older houses are more expensive than the older houses around Irvine and Woodbridge.

By the way, in real estate, one mile is very significant.  The difference from a house with waterfront with a house a mile inland is extremely significant.

And CM guy, you don’t need to be white to take flight.  You just have to be wealthy.  Wealthier Hispanics take flight to North Tustin from Santa Ana.  Wealthier Asians flee Garden Grove and Chinatowns to Irvine.

so in conclusion, this is what you’ve come up with.

new home prices > old home prices
schools new neighborhood > schools old neighborhood

therefore, in general…
new > old

cases in which old homes are more expensive, old schools are better, and old neighborhoods are considered more desirable… well those are all outliers that don’t count. 

if you throw all those out, then i guess yes, everything you said is correct.

Acpme, let’s just focus on Irvine for a second okay?

There are four high schools.

University is the highest performing.  It’s been around, it has a stellar reputation, it’s close to awfully expensive neighborhoods - Turtle Rock, Turtle Ridge, Shady Canyon, Quail Hill, University Hills, and it’s close to UCI.

Northwood is the next highest performing school.  It’s less than ten years old.  But it was built around the same time as all the expensive new homes were built across the street from it.  So… having students come from wealthy family, it has great performance.

Woodbridge is next.  Homes around aren’t as new as Northwood’s and not as expensive as University’s.

Then Irvine High.  Once again, older and less expensive homes - indicating less wealth.

In Irvine, I think that the areas around Irvine and Woodbridge Highs are considered middle class.
I think that the new homes around Northwood and the expensive homes around University are considered upper middle class.
That’s all.

Residence 3 is down to $387k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/15213-Calverton-Way-92782/home/17455455

OMG!

1300sf, and 400 of that is taken up with stairways.

and $400/month HOA.

jeez, how low can these go?  $250k?  $150k?

You forgot mello roos.

Also that $387k is without any upgrades

freedomCM - 31 October 2008 09:51 PM

OMG!

1300sf, and 400 of that is taken up with stairways.

and $400/month HOA.

jeez, how low can these go?  $250k?  $150k?

stairways are not included in sqft, just like balcony and garage for e.g.

flmgrip - 08 November 2008 07:47 AM

freedomCM - 31 October 2008 09:51 PM

OMG!

1300sf, and 400 of that is taken up with stairways.

and $400/month HOA.

jeez, how low can these go?  $250k?  $150k?

stairways are not included in sqft, just like balcony and garage for e.g.

I thought that they were, according to both bkshpr, and this:

The ANSI standards define “finished area” as “an enclosed area in a house suitable for year-round use, embodying walls, floors, and ceilings that are similar to the rest of the house.” Measurements must be taken to the nearest inch or tenth of a foot, and floor area must be reported to the nearest square foot. Garages are specifically excluded.

How We Measure a House

  * If there are stairs, we include them on every level they serve. The area below the stairs, such as a closet or half bath, is included on the floor the stairs go up from.
  * For split-level designs, we measure each level.
  * We exclude any areas, such as porches, poor quality additions, breezeways, detached rooms and converted garages, that are not finished or heated the same as the rest of the house.

http://www.appleappraisalinc.com/Measuring+a+Home-+What+does+an+Appraiser+look+for?

Stopped by today.

Residence 1: $329,900
Residence 2: $324,905

Residence 5 sold out. I believe this is phase 7 of 7.

Any more Plan 3s?

Yeah, there’s 2 more plan 3’s. I didn’t jot down the price down though.

If I remember, it was $424,000, but they were taking $40,000 off of the price on paper, so I’m guessing $384,000.

Plan 1 was $379K, but she crossed it out and wrote 339K (with an additional $10K off of closing/flooring/principal) so $329K final price.

300-400k for a new condo sounds right.  right now, you can buy an old one for 200-300k.
you can buy a resale home for 400-500k, and you can buy a new home for 500-600k.

What do u guys think of plan 2?

1235 sq ft, 1 bdrm, 1.5 bath. One car garage.

Selling at 324k, plus 5000 referral award (since I referred my gf) so final price is 319k. That’s 259 per sqft. For a brand new condo in tustin.

Shooby - 18 January 2009 11:47 PM

What do u guys think of plan 2?

1235 sq ft, 1 bdrm, 1.5 bath. One car garage.

Selling at 324k, plus 5000 referral award (since I referred my gf) so final price is 319k. That’s 259 per sqft. For a brand new condo in tustin.

I think you should also consider this is the last units in the last phase and last chance to buy new.  I’m considering getting one as well.

asianinvasian - 19 January 2009 12:28 AM

Shooby - 18 January 2009 11:47 PM

What do u guys think of plan 2?

1235 sq ft, 1 bdrm, 1.5 bath. One car garage.

Selling at 324k, plus 5000 referral award (since I referred my gf) so final price is 319k. That’s 259 per sqft. For a brand new condo in tustin.

I think you should also consider this is the last units in the last phase and last chance to buy new.  I’m considering getting one as well.

That endorsement is enough to scare me off the reservation right there.

Shooby - 18 January 2009 11:47 PM

What do u guys think of plan 2?

1235 sq ft, 1 bdrm, 1.5 bath. One car garage.

Selling at 324k, plus 5000 referral award (since I referred my gf) so final price is 319k. That’s 259 per sqft. For a brand new condo in tustin.

Just as in every past downturn, the least desirable units will fall furthest and fastest, and take the longest to recover.

While better than a 600sf studio, a 1/1/1c has a pretty limited market when it comes time to sell (no 2car couple, for instance), and so falls into this category.

no_vaseline - 19 January 2009 12:32 AM

asianinvasian - 19 January 2009 12:28 AM

Shooby - 18 January 2009 11:47 PM

What do u guys think of plan 2?

1235 sq ft, 1 bdrm, 1.5 bath. One car garage.

Selling at 324k, plus 5000 referral award (since I referred my gf) so final price is 319k. That’s 259 per sqft. For a brand new condo in tustin.

I think you should also consider this is the last units in the last phase and last chance to buy new.  I’m considering getting one as well.

That endorsement is enough to scare me off the reservation right there.

For you, the rent will be $3,500/month.

asianinvasian - 19 January 2009 03:28 AM

no_vaseline - 19 January 2009 12:32 AM

asianinvasian - 19 January 2009 12:28 AM

Shooby - 18 January 2009 11:47 PM

What do u guys think of plan 2?

1235 sq ft, 1 bdrm, 1.5 bath. One car garage.

Selling at 324k, plus 5000 referral award (since I referred my gf) so final price is 319k. That’s 259 per sqft. For a brand new condo in tustin.

I think you should also consider this is the last units in the last phase and last chance to buy new.  I’m considering getting one as well.

That endorsement is enough to scare me off the reservation right there.

For you, the rent will be $3,500/month.

I’m sure you will enjoy it sitting empty for months to come.

http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/01/18/oc-landlords-losing-renters-at-6th-fastest-rate/11922/

I am going to particularly enjoy pressing the submit button on this post.

i think that 300k for a brand new condo is not too bad.  i’ve been looking at older ones for around 300k and they are rather ugly.  but seriously, a 1 bedroom condo only has a capacity to house 2 adults.  pretty cool for those in their 20’s.  but by the time you’re in your 30’s and thinking of starting a family, it’s not so good anymore.

Quick update, a plan 2 just came back on the market for a September closing date. It’s the last one (for now), and the price is in the range of 315K.