Remember everyone, the census data is survey based data people fill out and send back, and if people are willing to lie on their loan apps then they are certainly willing to lie to the census bureau.

The median rent in Irvine is $1713.

interesting point, graphrix…. I wonder if we can get household income data from the IRS?

What percentage will take a serious income haircut with the housing market downturn?

I wonder how many in the census on the high end were directly or indirectly effected by the housing bust.  High paying jobs that were “created” have now disappeared.  Incomes that increased due to the upturn will take a downturn as well. The “mortgage” broker is now back to making Latte’s.  Contractors are now fighting for jobs cutting into their profits/Income.  Real estate, furniture stores, restaraunt owners, car dealers…....  Much of that income will probably never equal what it did during the housing bubble.

I know a sub contractor that would take side “home improvement” jobs that he could do in a couple weekends (heloc money?) and make a few thousand dollars.  There was no competition for these jobs because they were too small.  He took at least one job a month and made an extra 1k-3k a month.  (tax free I may add) He hasn’t done any side work for month’s now.  Too much comptition for what little work there is and that is turning a $1,000 side job into a $400 side job, if that.

no_vaseline - 27 August 2008 12:47 PM

Here is the total chart:

1 Pleasanton, Calif. $113,345 $8,196 $131,048 $10,415
2 Newton, Mass. $110,885 $10,361 $139,404 $16,481
3 Newport Beach, Calif. $110,511 $5,967 $162,976 $28,370
4 Yorba Linda, Calif. $109,681 $7,142 $122,373 $8,686
5 Flower Mound, Texas $105,812 $6,366 $112,555 $7,838
6 Highlands Ranch, Colo. $99,066 $5,052 $103,516 $7,265
7 Irvine, Calif. $98,923 $4,821 $111,455 $5,487
8 West Bloomfield Township, Mich. $98,832 $8,442 $113,191 $9,882
9 Chino Hills, Calif. $96,733 $8,745 $102,745 $5,497

Here is the Irvine sales data (July):

Irvine 92602 $650,000 -9.7% 24 9.1%
Irvine 92603 $726,000 -15.1% 39 -2.5%
Irvine 92604 $567,500 -11.0% 21 0.0%
Irvine 92606 $721,000 -0.6% 13 -38.1%
Irvine 92612 $475,000 -37.1% 31 -29.5%
Irvine 92614 $561,000 11.5% 12 20.0%
Irvine 92618 $460,000 -22.0% 20 -9.1%
Irvine 92620 $634,000 -14.7% 44 -17.0%

Here is Ladera Ranch sales data (July)

Ladera Ranch 92694 $570,000 -28.7% 52 -3.7%

Here is the Yorba Linda sales data (July):

Yorba Linda 92886 $566,000 -34.4% 54 22.7%
Yorba Linda 92887 $775,000 -3.1% 26 8.3%

Here is Chino Hills sales data (July)

Chino Hills 91709 58 $499 -16.5% 6 $308 -23.0% $241

So, it appears that Irvineistas are paying about 6:1 (price:income), Ladarians are paying about 5.7:1 (I’m assuming Ladera and Irvine have the same median income), Yorba Lindaindans are paying about 6.5:1, and Chino Hills Holla Ballas are paying about 5:1.

Whats the difference between Chino Hills and YL and Ladera and Irvine?  IMO, where they fall on the backside of the road to Bustoville, as they revert to whatever Case Schiller multiple they should be at.  And not just my opinion:

“People are saying the reason prices are falling are because of all of the foreclosures, but the foreclosures are happening because the prices are falling,“ Thornberg said. “They’ve got it backwards. The prices are falling because they’re too freakin’ high.“

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2008/08/27/housing/869dataparty082708.txt

I would like to see the whole data set of the census, not just the median.  If somebody has it, please post it or a link or something along those lines.  It will give us an absolute cap on what you can finance using “conventional” products, which will accurately nail what you can ultimately spend on a given stucco box.

Pleasanton is sort of like the OC of the Bay area in terms of it being newer, cookie cutter etc. No one I know would want to live there, and it is way down on the prestige scale in the Bay compared to Irvine’s prestige scale in OC. Irvine’s way nicer. Newton MA is a very nice suburb of Boston, and I’m surprised the median income is that low. Probably skewed due to the large number of longtime residents in that town.

No_Such_Reality - 27 August 2008 11:32 AM

The question then becomes will the $150K family move from Irvine to Ladera or Chino Hills when $600,000 buys them Ipop’s old place in Irvine and $400,000 buys them a much nicer place in Ladera or Chino Hills?

Many won’t, they will just buy smaller in Irvine.  Hell, I can’t even get my wife to do Aliso Viejo, no way she would ever opt for Ladera or cow country…  She wants Irvine schools and the good central location Irvine offers.

bigmoneysalsa - 27 August 2008 03:13 PM

25w100k+ - 27 August 2008 01:01 PM

The new median info is a good reason of why Irvine is going to crash softer then the rest of the bubble towns.

Um, no.

Irvine can have a median income of $1 million and prices will still fall as long as the price/rent ratios are as out of whack as they are now.

Except prices aren’t falling now bigmoney…  In Irvine, prices have been fairly level for six months.  Look at the Irvine inventory graph.  Less than 800 listed units.  Inventory equivalent to January of 2007.  790 units listed with perhaps 100-200 in escrow, you think that will make prices fall?

I have been contending for many months now that our months inventory in Irvine has come down enough that price declines are minimal.  The data I have been collecting sure seems to back that up.  Prices in Irvine may fall, will fall, had better fall, but they haven’t been lately.

ipoplaya - 28 August 2008 11:48 AM

No_Such_Reality - 27 August 2008 11:32 AM

The question then becomes will the $150K family move from Irvine to Ladera or Chino Hills when $600,000 buys them Ipop’s old place in Irvine and $400,000 buys them a much nicer place in Ladera or Chino Hills?

Many won’t, they will just buy smaller in Irvine.  Hell, I can’t even get my wife to do Aliso Viejo, no way she would ever opt for Ladera or cow country…  She wants Irvine schools and the good central location Irvine offers.

I think our wives have been talking, IPO.  Notice I have not posted anything on the AV thread lately…Guess why?  My wife keeps hitting me over the head with “you buy the worst house in the best neighborhood, not the best house in the worst neighborhood”.  I disagreed with her that AV was the “worst neighborhood”—- but like most disagreements, I lost that one.

Except here:

Irvine 92612 $426,500 -32.0% 34 -12.8%

Your property search is a little myopic and ignores the rest of the market.  I’m not giving you grief.  I know why you are doing it, and what you are looking for.

CK - 28 August 2008 02:17 PM

ipoplaya - 28 August 2008 11:48 AM

No_Such_Reality - 27 August 2008 11:32 AM

The question then becomes will the $150K family move from Irvine to Ladera or Chino Hills when $600,000 buys them Ipop’s old place in Irvine and $400,000 buys them a much nicer place in Ladera or Chino Hills?

Many won’t, they will just buy smaller in Irvine.  Hell, I can’t even get my wife to do Aliso Viejo, no way she would ever opt for Ladera or cow country…  She wants Irvine schools and the good central location Irvine offers.

I think our wives have been talking, IPO.  Notice I have not posted anything on the AV thread lately…Guess why?  My wife keeps hitting me over the head with “you buy the worst house in the best neighborhood, not the best house in the worst neighborhood”.  I disagreed with her that AV was the “worst neighborhood”—- but like most disagreements, I lost that one.

There is something to be said for that notion…  My buddy who bought at the same time as me in 2001 in RSM, for just $15K less, can’t find anyone to even offer over $500K on his house while I had four buyers willing to go over $600K on mine.  He’s got more of house than my condo (big yard, driveway, etc.) but it hasn’t held up nearly as well as my basic Irvine condo.

no_vaseline - 28 August 2008 02:18 PM

Except here:

Irvine 92612 $426,500 -32.0% 34 -12.8%

Your property search is a little myopic and ignores the rest of the market.  I’m not giving you grief.  I know why you are doing it, and what you are looking for.

I agree with you.  That is why I recently expanded my search parameters some and now track down to 3 bedrooms and 1500sf…  I was probably only covering the top third of the market and now the top half or so…

IPO, are closings slowing down in Irvine?

My data for CM (SFR<1M) show a huge drop off in closed sales in the past few weeks.

freedomCM - 28 August 2008 05:43 PM

IPO, are closings slowing down in Irvine?

My data for CM (SFR<1M) show a huge drop off in closed sales in the past few weeks.

Yes, it would appear that it is taking longer to close deals as a general rule…  No discernable increase in escrows falling through, i.e. it does not look like people can’t / aren’t qualifying, but rather it would appear that underwriting times are stretching out.

Some math to support - In June I picked up around 62 new escrows and had 58 closed sales in July.  In July, I picked up around the same number of escrows, but only have 43 closed sales and we are almost to the end of the month…

ipoplaya - 28 August 2008 02:55 PM

CK - 28 August 2008 02:17 PM

ipoplaya - 28 August 2008 11:48 AM

No_Such_Reality - 27 August 2008 11:32 AM

The question then becomes will the $150K family move from Irvine to Ladera or Chino Hills when $600,000 buys them Ipop’s old place in Irvine and $400,000 buys them a much nicer place in Ladera or Chino Hills?

Many won’t, they will just buy smaller in Irvine.  Hell, I can’t even get my wife to do Aliso Viejo, no way she would ever opt for Ladera or cow country…  She wants Irvine schools and the good central location Irvine offers.

I think our wives have been talking, IPO.  Notice I have not posted anything on the AV thread lately…Guess why?  My wife keeps hitting me over the head with “you buy the worst house in the best neighborhood, not the best house in the worst neighborhood”.  I disagreed with her that AV was the “worst neighborhood”—- but like most disagreements, I lost that one.

There is something to be said for that notion…  My buddy who bought at the same time as me in 2001 in RSM, for just $15K less, can’t find anyone to even offer over $500K on his house while I had four buyers willing to go over $600K on mine.  He’s got more of house than my condo (big yard, driveway, etc.) but it hasn’t held up nearly as well as my basic Irvine condo.

CK and IPO,

Is there something about Aliso Viejo that your wives know that my wife doesn’t know? Your wives seem to make Aliso Viejo sound like the Inland Empire. Outside that fact that there is not one Asian Grocery Store in this White Bread City, I would totally choose Aliso Viejo over the Irvine Inland Empire (Portola Springs, Northwood, and Woodbury) any day.

IPO, why don’t you just buy one house in Irvine and buy your second Vacation Home in Aliso Viejo? I’m sure Mrs. IPO wouldn’t mind that? Right? You get the best of both worlds.

Sorry, if this is a little bit off the topic, but can anyone tell me why the rent for office warehouse spaces are so ridicously priced in Aliso Viejo compared to Irvine for the same square footage? For example i found some of the best rates for office warehouse spaces off of Hammond for 1.34 triple net all in, but the three places i checked out in AV (Argonaut, Aliso Creek, and Journey are all asking 1.90 - 1.95 triple net all in. When i asked the broker, why Aliso Viejo is so expensive compared to Irvine, he told me that most people who live in AV want to work in Aliso Viejo which is why they are willing to pay a premium, and that the market for commerical properties in AV is very strong compared to Irvine presently. Knowing that Aliso Viejo Residential houses are atleast 10 - 15% less than Irvine, how could rent for commerial real estate be so much more in AV compared to Irvine? Also if the commercial real estate gets hard in the next couple of years? Where are some of the best buying opportunities in Irvine and Aliso Viejo? How do you do go about finding business owners who are struggling to who are motivated to sell their office space?

USCTrojan, Are you there ???

Panda

ipoplaya - 28 August 2008 11:48 AM

No_Such_Reality - 27 August 2008 11:32 AM

The question then becomes will the $150K family move from Irvine to Ladera or Chino Hills when $600,000 buys them Ipop’s old place in Irvine and $400,000 buys them a much nicer place in Ladera or Chino Hills?

Many won’t, they will just buy smaller in Irvine.  Hell, I can’t even get my wife to do Aliso Viejo, no way she would ever opt for Ladera or cow country…  She wants Irvine schools and the good central location Irvine offers.

I have heard that the Ladera schools are excellent and can give most of the Irvine schools a run.

I call BS.  That number is awfully high and the jobs just don’t support that. If you want to debate that, we can agree that back with the realtors, mortgage brokers, appraisers, lenders, title officers, etc all were making $10k-$20k/month, those days are over so that $99k number is way over inflated.  Inflated directly by the inflated home prices.

ipoplaya - 28 August 2008 11:55 AM

Except prices aren’t falling now bigmoney…  In Irvine, prices have been fairly level for six months.  Look at the Irvine inventory graph.  Less than 800 listed units.  Inventory equivalent to January of 2007.  790 units listed with perhaps 100-200 in escrow, you think that will make prices fall?

I have been contending for many months now that our months inventory in Irvine has come down enough that price declines are minimal.  The data I have been collecting sure seems to back that up.  Prices in Irvine may fall, will fall, had better fall, but they haven’t been lately.

I feel you man. Prices might not fall steadily or quickly, and it’s frustrating. At any given time amidst the overall declining market you can pick out areas where there is no measurable decline. Look, in 2005 I’m sure inventory was much lower and sales much higher than right now. But I was sure of impending massive price declines then, because the evidence was just that overwhelming no matter what had happened in the recent past.

norcaljeff - 28 August 2008 08:38 PM

I call BS.  That number is awfully high and the jobs just don’t support that. If you want to debate that, we can agree that back with the realtors, mortgage brokers, appraisers, lenders, title officers, etc all were making $10k-$20k/month, those days are over so that $99k number is way over inflated.  Inflated directly by the inflated home prices.

Well, if Sactojeff calls BS, so it must be.  Sactojeff, could you please enlighten us to what our median income should be, given your detailed analysis of local economy?

PANDA - 28 August 2008 07:06 PM

CK and IPO,

Is there something about Aliso Viejo that your wives know that my wife doesn’t know? Your wives seem to make Aliso Viejo sound like the Inland Empire. Outside that fact that there is not one Asian Grocery Store in this White Bread City, I would totally choose Aliso Viejo over the Irvine Inland Empire (Portola Springs, Northwood, and Woodbury) any day.

Panda

The lack of diversity is a real negative with my wife.  In addition, she is also very set on our daughter taking after school classes at the ginormous Irvine Chinese School behind Trabuco Plaza. That school picks up from most Irvine Elementary schools, but I doubt their bus driver could find AV on a map.

You should look at Westpark, Panda.  The new Diamond Jamboree center opening in September is going to be a dream for anyone who loves Asian food.  Although it would be a little bit of a stroll, you could walk to it from most of Westpark….which would be a big plus, because parking is going to be awful there.

CK - 28 August 2008 09:22 PM

norcaljeff - 28 August 2008 08:38 PM

I call BS.  That number is awfully high and the jobs just don’t support that. If you want to debate that, we can agree that back with the realtors, mortgage brokers, appraisers, lenders, title officers, etc all were making $10k-$20k/month, those days are over so that $99k number is way over inflated.  Inflated directly by the inflated home prices.

Well, if Sactojeff calls BS, so it must be.  Sactojeff, could you please enlighten us to what our median income should be, given your detailed analysis of local economy?

1. City of Irvine who has a vested interest in having a high numbers list the official number at $85K. That includes everyone in the household and is 15% lower than what was claimed.
2. 40% of the top employers are real estate related and as I stated previously, many of those folks are without jobs now, or lower paying jobs, or have left the market, thus, econ 101 states that number would come down.
3. Realtors and other ICs working from home aren’t represented in that number and those figures have drasticly been reduced.  If you are in doubt, go find the closet realtor/mortgage broker/title worker and as what their 2007 v. 2008 incomes look like.

Anything else CK?

CK - 28 August 2008 09:37 PM

PANDA - 28 August 2008 07:06 PM

CK and IPO,

Is there something about Aliso Viejo that your wives know that my wife doesn’t know? Your wives seem to make Aliso Viejo sound like the Inland Empire. Outside that fact that there is not one Asian Grocery Store in this White Bread City, I would totally choose Aliso Viejo over the Irvine Inland Empire (Portola Springs, Northwood, and Woodbury) any day.

Panda

The lack of diversity is a real negative with my wife.  In addition, she is also very set on our daughter taking after school classes at the ginormous Irvine Chinese School behind Trabuco Plaza. That school picks up from most Irvine Elementary schools, but I doubt their bus driver could find AV on a map.

You should look at Westpark, Panda.  The new Diamond Jamboree center opening in September is going to be a dream for anyone who loves Asian food.  Although it would be a little bit of a stroll, you could walk to it from most of Westpark….which would be a big plus, because parking is going to be awful there.

Good racist comments.  Maybe you ought to look into moving to Detroit or Birmingham.

norcaljeff - 28 August 2008 09:44 PM

Good racist comments.  Maybe you ought to look into moving to Detroit or Birmingham.

WTF are you talking about? Your analysis of the english language is as astute as your knowledge of the local economy.  I said the LACK OF diversity is Aliso is why we prefer to stay in MORE diverse Irvine.

norcaljeff - 28 August 2008 09:42 PM

CK - 28 August 2008 09:22 PM

norcaljeff - 28 August 2008 08:38 PM

I call BS.  That number is awfully high and the jobs just don’t support that. If you want to debate that, we can agree that back with the realtors, mortgage brokers, appraisers, lenders, title officers, etc all were making $10k-$20k/month, those days are over so that $99k number is way over inflated.  Inflated directly by the inflated home prices.

Well, if Sactojeff calls BS, so it must be.  Sactojeff, could you please enlighten us to what our median income should be, given your detailed analysis of local economy?

1. City of Irvine who has a vested interest in having a high numbers list the official number at $85K. That includes everyone in the household and is 15% lower than what was claimed.
2. 40% of the top employers are real estate related and as I stated previously, many of those folks are without jobs now, or lower paying jobs, or have left the market, thus, econ 101 states that number would come down.
3. Realtors and other ICs working from home aren’t represented in that number and those figures have drasticly been reduced.  If you are in doubt, go find the closet realtor/mortgage broker/title worker and as what their 2007 v. 2008 incomes look like.

Anything else CK?

Are you in politics up there in Sacto, Jeff? You gave a long answer, but not to my question…you sound like a politician.  Your racism card pulling makes you sound even more like an idiot politician these days.

My question was “What should the Irvine median income be?“ if not what the Census number is. We’ve heard before your reasons WHY you think the number CAN’T be what it is, so I want to know what YOUR number is—given your extensive research on this subject. And please don’t say $85k.  The City of Irvine website has said $85k for two years—- they just have not gotten around to updating it yet.  The Census report just came out on Tuesday.

Hey now!

I’m the resident classist here!

This is winex’s fault, isn’t it?

norcaljeff - 28 August 2008 09:44 PM

CK - 28 August 2008 09:37 PM

PANDA - 28 August 2008 07:06 PM

CK and IPO,

Is there something about Aliso Viejo that your wives know that my wife doesn’t know? Your wives seem to make Aliso Viejo sound like the Inland Empire. Outside that fact that there is not one Asian Grocery Store in this White Bread City, I would totally choose Aliso Viejo over the Irvine Inland Empire (Portola Springs, Northwood, and Woodbury) any day.

Panda

The lack of diversity is a real negative with my wife.  In addition, she is also very set on our daughter taking after school classes at the ginormous Irvine Chinese School behind Trabuco Plaza. That school picks up from most Irvine Elementary schools, but I doubt their bus driver could find AV on a map.

You should look at Westpark, Panda.  The new Diamond Jamboree center opening in September is going to be a dream for anyone who loves Asian food.  Although it would be a little bit of a stroll, you could walk to it from most of Westpark….which would be a big plus, because parking is going to be awful there.

Good racist comments.  Maybe you ought to look into moving to Detroit or Birmingham.

I really don’t see how his comments are racist.  Are you reading something I’m not?