ukyo116 - 04 November 2009 09:11 AM

Roubini Says Rogers’s Forecast for $2,000-an-Ounce Gold `Utter Nonsense’

Does roubini realize filling holes in bank balance sheets is nonsense and has consequences?

I’m certain he does.  It’s his contention the rise in gold is the carry trade on steroids and nothing more.

Anyone see the YOY chart for copper?  Yowza.  Enough to break a goldbugs heart.

matt138 - 04 November 2009 10:54 AM

ukyo116 - 04 November 2009 09:11 AM

Roubini Says Rogers’s Forecast for $2,000-an-Ounce Gold `Utter Nonsense’

Does roubini realize filling holes in bank balance sheets is nonsense and has consequences?

I think its an interesting debate from two people who come from very different backgrounds.  One is in the private sector while the other is an academic.

no_vaseline - 04 November 2009 11:15 AM

I’m certain he does.  It’s his contention the rise in gold is the carry trade on steroids and nothing more.

Anyone see the YOY chart for copper?  Yowza.  Enough to break a goldbugs heart.

Copper is an industrial commodity, not a store of value. Production of anything electrical or used in moving electricity is down, so copper is down to match the lowered demand. Gold, while it has some uses in production, is up because people expect inflation to spike in reaction to the dollar’s ubiquitous disemination. It’s not that gold bugs are wrong, they just aren’t right… yet. If inflation (or the fear of inflation) gets high enough, anyone who buys it today will look brilliant, as long as they sell before everyone rushes for the door.

I’m just wondering when our proficiency with materials manipulations will reach a level where gold can be synthesized for less than market prices.  There are already a few methods involving particle accelerators and nuclear reactors, which have been shown to work.  Some clever and entrepreneurial physicist is going to get the jump on this one day and THEN we’ll see about gold prices.

I would imagine that even news of such a venture would send prices tumbling.

MojoJD - 04 November 2009 05:06 PM

I’m just wondering when our proficiency with materials manipulations will reach a level where gold can be synthesized for less than market prices.  There are already a few methods involving particle accelerators and nuclear reactors, which have been shown to work.  Some clever and entrepreneurial physicist is going to get the jump on this one day and THEN we’ll see about gold prices.

I would imagine that even news of such a venture would send prices tumbling.

When these hit the shelves, gold will be worthless… but our need to work will be removed so it balances out…

There are billions of tons of gold in sea water.  I don’t know how much it cost to get it out, but it certainly is a limiting parameter to the price of gold.  It is cheaper than the particle accelerator method for sure.  We just need some bright chemists to work on this, but I am sure it is a Top Secret project, and on the day the research is done, all of them will accidentally poisoned by some chemical they used in their lab.

Nude - 04 November 2009 01:57 PM

no_vaseline - 04 November 2009 11:15 AM

I’m certain he does.  It’s his contention the rise in gold is the carry trade on steroids and nothing more.

Anyone see the YOY chart for copper?  Yowza.  Enough to break a goldbugs heart.

Copper is an industrial commodity, not a store of value.

You can’t store copper?  Does it not have value?  After all, gold is just a metal.  If you’re going to speculate in a metal, why be predjuiced?

Production of anything electrical or used in moving electricity is down, so copper is down to match the lowered demand.

You obv. didn’t look at the chart. 

Gold, while it has some uses in production, is up because people expect inflation to spike in reaction to the dollar’s ubiquitous disemination. It’s not that gold bugs are wrong, they just aren’t right… yet. If inflation (or the fear of inflation) gets high enough, anyone who buys it today will look brilliant, as long as they sell before everyone rushes for the door.

Gold bugs should be kicking themselves for getting into the wrong “store of value”.

Nude - 04 November 2009 05:25 PM

MojoJD - 04 November 2009 05:06 PM

I’m just wondering when our proficiency with materials manipulations will reach a level where gold can be synthesized for less than market prices.  There are already a few methods involving particle accelerators and nuclear reactors, which have been shown to work.  Some clever and entrepreneurial physicist is going to get the jump on this one day and THEN we’ll see about gold prices.

I would imagine that even news of such a venture would send prices tumbling.

When these hit the shelves, gold will be worthless… but our need to work will be removed so it balances out…

Artificial Diamonds Trigger a Furious Counter-Offensive
http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/11/artificial-di-1.html

A lot of calls on UUP. Trading halted as well….

ukyo116 - 05 November 2009 12:37 PM

A lot of calls on UUP. Trading halted as well….

That’s my girl

morekaos - 05 November 2009 01:08 PM

ukyo116 - 05 November 2009 12:37 PM

A lot of calls on UUP. Trading halted as well….

That’s my girl

Shot up like a rocket when it reopened.  I wonder what happened because the dollar didn’t really move all that much.  Someone knew something yesterday when they were buying blocks of 10k and 25k options at a time on the Nov $23 calls at $.10-$.15.

USCTrojanCPA - 05 November 2009 02:34 PM

morekaos - 05 November 2009 01:08 PM

ukyo116 - 05 November 2009 12:37 PM

A lot of calls on UUP. Trading halted as well….

That’s my girl

Shot up like a rocket when it reopened.  I wonder what happened because the dollar didn’t really move all that much.  Someone knew something yesterday when they were buying blocks of 10k and 25k options at a time on the Nov $23 calls at $.10-$.15.

Maybe some instituion(s) have a large USD short position and are hedging?

Gold as gifts? Must be a top….

Once gold becomes a gift for kids, it’s probably over-owned. And is Paris Hilton more likely to be a contrary indicator or an expert who’s ahead of the curve?

The whole gold ETF story could one day be looked at as a scam, just as the Internet bubble was a scam. These ETFs could just be a place for unwanted, over-produced gold to be dumped on the public. Tell me gold’s worth $400 an ounce or $4000 an ounce; I can accept a case for each. But I can tell you for certain that the Dow is not worth 40,000, and it’s probably worth a tad more than 4000.

MoreKaos and Bondtrader,

Are you guys still shorting gold right now? I was hoping to buy some more gold at $920-$950 range, but I’m sure if that is ever going to happen? Are we at the “bye bye” three digits for Gold?

PANDA - 10 November 2009 05:23 PM

MoreKaos and Bondtrader,

Are you guys still shorting gold right now? I was hoping to buy some more gold at $920-$950 range, but I’m sure if that is ever going to happen? Are we at the “bye bye” three digits for Gold?

adding to shorts

morekaos - 10 November 2009 09:04 PM

PANDA - 10 November 2009 05:23 PM

MoreKaos and Bondtrader,

Are you guys still shorting gold right now? I was hoping to buy some more gold at $920-$950 range, but I’m sure if that is ever going to happen? Are we at the “bye bye” three digits for Gold?

adding to shorts

Morekaos, I’ve learned that it is extremely difficult to predict short term movements of precious metals. Even if the dollar rallies 5% in one day, it is possible for Gold to rally even higher at 10% the same day, not the other way around.

PANDA - 10 November 2009 09:18 PM

morekaos - 10 November 2009 09:04 PM

PANDA - 10 November 2009 05:23 PM

MoreKaos and Bondtrader,

Are you guys still shorting gold right now? I was hoping to buy some more gold at $920-$950 range, but I’m sure if that is ever going to happen? Are we at the “bye bye” three digits for Gold?

adding to shorts

Morekaos, I’ve learned that it is extremely difficult to predict short term movements of precious metals. Even if the dollar rallies 5% in one day, it is possible for Gold to rally even higher at 10% the same day, not the other way around.

Same happened with my shorts on oil and gold last year. It is impossible to pick the exact top but as in horseshoes, hand grenades and slow dancing…close is good enough. Keep on shorting

In today’s volatile market , investing in Gold is always better option.

Whenever stock market goes down, gold goes up.
Not only this at worst case you will always get what you have invested.

It’s better to diversify fund other than stock and Gold is always golden option.

edward - 11 November 2009 01:48 AM

In today’s volatile market , investing in Gold is always better option.

Whenever stock market goes down, gold goes up.
Not only this at worst case you will always get what you have invested.

It’s better to diversify fund other than stock and Gold is always golden option.

If you use the word “always” in financial advice you are probably wrong.

edward - 11 November 2009 01:48 AM

In today’s volatile market , investing in Gold is always better option.

Whenever stock market goes down, gold goes up.
Not only this at worst case you will always get what you have invested.

It’s better to diversify fund other than stock and Gold is always golden option.

Insert word “house” for the word “gold” and I think I have heard this before.

edward - 11 November 2009 01:48 AM

In today’s volatile market , investing in Gold is always better option.

Whenever stock market goes down, gold goes up.
Not only this at worst case you will always get what you have invested.

It’s better to diversify fund other than stock and Gold is always golden option.

You better check your facts, “Whenever stock market goes down, gold goes up.” ??!!  Am I missing sth? Last time I check, the gold and stock market are positively correlated for the last 12 months. Everytime the market is up, Gold is up because our dollar gets hammered and vice versa.
The reason gold went up so much is simply because of this carry trade (sell dollar, buy everything else), which is the most crowded trade on the wall street, heck, even our Fed is doing it buy printing money restlessly and giving it to the banks to help pump up the market. I’m bullish on the dollar for the next 3-6 months and expecting everything else (gold, equities, bonds, commodities) to correct itself.

BondTrader - 11 November 2009 09:32 AM

edward - 11 November 2009 01:48 AM

In today’s volatile market , investing in Gold is always better option.

Whenever stock market goes down, gold goes up.
Not only this at worst case you will always get what you have invested.

It’s better to diversify fund other than stock and Gold is always golden option.

You better check your facts, “Whenever stock market goes down, gold goes up.” ??!!  Am I missing sth? Last time I check, the gold and stock market are positively correlated for the last 12 months. Everytime the market is up, Gold is up because our dollar gets hammered and vice versa.
The reason gold went up so much is simply because of this carry trade (sell dollar, buy everything else), which is the most crowded trade on the wall street, heck, even our Fed is doing it buy printing money restlessly and giving it to the banks to help pump up the market. I’m bullish on the dollar for the next 3-6 months and expecting everything else (gold, equities, bonds, commodities) to correct itself.

Bondtrader, we saw that happen last March, 2009. The DOW crashed down to 6500, the dollar rallied to 89, and at the same time gold and silver spiked even higher. I am totally in agreement that the dollar will rally in the next 3-6 months, and the foreign currencies (euro and swiss) will decline, but i am not so sure if the same will happen for Gold. It is quite possible that the stock market crashes and the dollar rallies, but gold rallies even higher than the dollar.

I don’t know Bondtrader….  I would like to see Gold back down to 920 - 960 one last time so i can buy more, but it appears that Gold is headed to $1200 and Silver $25 by year end.

PANDA - 11 November 2009 10:02 AM

I don’t know Bondtrader….  I would like to see Gold back down to 920 - 960 one last time so i can buy more, but it appears that Gold is headed to $1200 and Silver $25 by year end.

LoL, it feels like I’m debating myself (I just realized that I called Gold 1200 by end of 2009 a while back). Anyways, if S&P did hit 1250 by year end, you will have Gold at 1200 or higher, I just don’t see the odds of that being too high, but anything could happen in this market, gotta have an open mind.