First off, there is a great blog keeping track of what is happening in the IE: http://housing-kaboom.blogspot.com/

Second, Riverside is clearly in the crapper:

55% off a 2004 price, for a 2700 sqft house on half an acre, less than $100/sqft:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1651705

It even has a fountain!

Here is a great one.  $86/sqft for a 2005 built house (about half the original sales price) on 1/3 acre

it even looks really nice (if only it weren’t in San Jacinto):

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1644050

In the first one it says see agent’s remarks, and if you look at the bottom of the wall to the left of the trashcan, you can see the discoloration in the stucco. I wonder if in the “agent’s remarks” they disclose that water/mold/mildew damage? Gawd only knows where that water is coming from, and gawd only knows what can of worms that would open up.

Look at the crack in the fence wall.  A paint job would have covered it up.
Are they honest or lazy?

Is that discoloration on the wall of concern to you?  It wouldn’t be
here.  Of course, cinderblock is usually under the stucco, and it
rains a lot, so there is often dark spotches of mold on the walls.  I
have a splotch much darker than that behind my acs in the back,
and there is no mold in the garage.

FreedomCM, thanks for posting that link to the IE disaster (housing-kaboom).  Here is an interesting tidbit from the site:

DataQuick also had this to say about March sales in California.

The median price paid for a home last month was $358,000, down 4.0 percent from $373,000 for the month before, and down 26.0 percent from $484,000 for March a year ago when the median peaked.

Down 26 %?  That is worse than Florida!!

Is that an electrical cord I see draped from the fountain?  Tacky…

I’m sure that cord is just to run the Xmas lights that they have on it!  didn’t you see all the tacky “ice cycle” lights they have on the eaves?

freedomCM - 19 April 2008 02:46 PM

Here is a great one.  $86/sqft for a 2005 built house (about half the original sales price) on 1/3 acre

it even looks really nice (if only it weren’t in San Jacinto):

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1644050

I found one at $85/sf a little closer to civilization in San Bernardino. 

List is hovering just above the 2002 purchase price:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1514426

8/14 Channel 4 news video on IE foreclosures and spike in crime.

Check out the grow operation !

I don’t know if anyone knows this, but I really don’t like horses.  But what douchebag gets foreclosed on and leaves his horse to die in the corral?

Fing people.

Vaseline,
  I don’t understand why people think a horse as a pet would be a good idea.  They are VERY expensive, feed, corral fees, excerise, health care, transportation, etc. etc. etc.  They cost ALOT.  Still, I don’t understand how people can leave it to die.

As an animal friend, it angers me and sickens me that people do this. 

-bix

no_vaseline - 15 August 2008 07:23 AM

I don’t know if anyone knows this, but I really don’t like horses.  But what douchebag gets foreclosed on and leaves his horse to die in the corral?

Fing people.

That is simply unconscionable. 

Yo DA Rod - Score a quick win and prosecute that mo-fo for animal cruelty.

These animal abandonment stories really bother me.  These sick freaks deserve to lose much more than their homes.  All I can say is “karma”.

Plunging home values means 62 percent of Inland Southern Californians who bought homes in the past five years can’t pay off their mortgages if they sell today, according to a report released today by a national online real estate marketing company.

“The data we are looking at shows no turnaround. The rates of year-over-year declines (in prices) have not slowed down,“ said Stan Humphries, Zillow’s vice president of data and analytics.

Trapped IE homeowners: prices tumble to 2003 levels

“Plunging home values means 62 percent of Inland Southern Californians who bought homes in the past five years can’t pay off their mortgages if they sell today, according to a report released today by a national online real estate marketing company.“

I wonder what the percentage is for OC-er’s.  I’m thinking a lot of Alt-A’s are looking at resets the next few years and the prospect of what is happening at the outskirts may be remote in their minds.  They hear the news, but think “That’s way out there where nobody wants to live” or “it will all straighten out by the time my reset occurs…whatever and whenever that is…perhaps I should check…nah, I’ll deal with it then…“ and then on to the next thought diversion.  Meanwhile, tick-tock, tick-tock…

We will see.

I have also been keeping an eye on the IE; just for kicks, I enter some crazy search criteria on Redfin just to see if any listings pop up, try it!

Under $150K
3000 Sq/Ft
2005 or newer…

Have fun!!

The IE is defying all RE logic, they are at 1%, rent-to-value ratio.  For example a house that costs $150K, can be easily rented out for $1,500 a month (check craigslist).  A lot of investors should be flocking to the IE really soon; if not already.  Also they are at or lower than the price per square foot of new construction.  How can this be?  They are selling for less than land and improvement appraised value.  I just ran into a $55/sq foot today, really strange what is going on there.  I’ll post some seemly good deals, what do you guys think.

$66/sq ft
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Perris/2917-Barn-Owl-Dr-92571/home/12271251

$55/sq ft - on a lake…
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Hemet/1600-Red-Clover-Ln-92545/home/6680476

$58/sq ft - also on a lake!
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Menifee/29906-Blue-Water-Way-92584/home/8161003

$42/sq ft – Best deal!
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lake-Elsinore/31065-Illinois-St-92530/home/5390871

roundcorners - 16 August 2008 08:57 PM

I have also been keeping an eye on the IE; just for kicks, I enter some crazy search criteria on Redfin just to see if any listings pop up, try it!

Under $150K
3000 Sq/Ft
2005 or newer…

Have fun!!

The IE is defying all RE logic, they are at 1%, rent-to-value ratio.  For example a house that costs $150K, can be easily rented out for $1,500 a month (check craigslist).  A lot of investors should be flocking to the IE really soon; if not already.  Also they are at or lower than the price per square foot of new construction.  How can this be?  They are selling for less than land and improvement appraised value.  I just ran into a $55/sq foot today, really strange what is going on there.  I’ll post some seemly good deals, what do you guys think.

$66/sq ft
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Perris/2917-Barn-Owl-Dr-92571/home/12271251

$55/sq ft - on a lake…
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Hemet/1600-Red-Clover-Ln-92545/home/6680476

$58/sq ft - also on a lake!
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Menifee/29906-Blue-Water-Way-92584/home/8161003

$42/sq ft – Best deal!
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lake-Elsinore/31065-Illinois-St-92530/home/5390871

I’m too lazy to search for the blog post IR did about land value, but you should try to find it. If you can’t maybe someone else will find it or I will find it for you.

From a builder’s perspective the land out there is at negative value. They are trying to reduce their building costs down to $65 a sqft. So, be prepared for some quality homes being built and a return to very large great rooms.

Is this the one you are talking about?

Thanks for finding that link Eva.  I just had a chance to re-read it….  Damn, IR….thanks for your time and effort.  That was amazing.

Inland Empire…aka…Inbred turdpile.

EvaLSeraphim - 17 August 2008 08:21 AM

Is this the one you are talking about?

Yup, that is the one. I need to add that one to the newbies thread too. I also found out that none of the links for IR’s recommended reading in the newbies thread worked. So I fixed them. Thanks EvaL for finding that. Next time I will just go to the analysis link to find it, duh and I am a moderator, I should know better.

So, I guess the follow up question will be.  Is there a pricing floor?  Is there a risk-free fair market price for any given property?  If land values can go negative, which I did not know, then technically there is no limit to how far a property might drop.  I thought another good indicator to see if which a property has bottom out is looking at the cost of replacement; or the price of the improvements, as building materials and commodities rise so does your property

roundcorners - 18 August 2008 09:06 AM

So, I guess the follow up question will be.  Is there a pricing floor?  Is there a risk-free fair market price for any given property?  If land values can go negative, which I did not know, then technically there is no limit to how far a property might drop.  I thought another good indicator to see if which a property has bottom out is looking at the cost of replacement; or the price of the improvements, as building materials and commodities rise so does your property

The answer to your question is posted in another thread here.

Several things come to play: rents, inflation, commutes, jobs, taxes, design, crime, etc.

But the simple fact is previous value, construction costs, have absolutely no sway when other systemic factors come to play.  Do you want to cool a 3500sf home in Murrieta when electricity costs sky rocket next year?  Commute daily from Riverside if gas returns to $5/gal?

Similarly, your HOA may bust you out.  The HOA is dependent on 90% paying on time.  The high rises and new developments may run into problems and that becomes it’s own problem.

For example, there used to be properties on Redfin listed in Tustin near the 55, the land lease was in court and because it was, 4 bedroom townhomes were listed at $80,000.  The problem with land leases and HOAs are they are obligated payments for the owner, changes can have profound impacts to your value.

A home is dependent on the community it is connected to.  Disrupt that connection and the house value may literally become negative, much like the example in Detroit above where the bank paid $10,000, including the closing costs, inspection, taxes and utilities to have the person buy it for $1.

Heard this on the radio todayFrom DR Horton for communites in the Inland Empire:

$0 Down and $0 Closing Costs Plus below market 30-year fixed financing.

There are a lot of builders saying zero this and zero that, but it’s what comes with our zero that makes it
special. Not only are we offering zero down and zero closing costs, but for a limited time we are also offering
below market 30-year fixed rate financing to qualified buyers. Simply put, we zero in on the BEST price in our
communities AND you get the satisfaction of owning a home by D.R. Horton, America’s Builder.

BethN - 17 August 2008 04:27 PM

Inland Empire…aka…Inbred turdpile.

On that note, here’s the IE house I grew up in, still on the market after forever, listed at a discount of 56% off peak price:

Chiquita Lane in Berdooky