It is not just Shady: you alsohave to factor in Turtle Ridge, Newport Coast, the Pelicans, Crystal Cove, CdM, the Balboas.

Think about this:  on a $4 million dollar home, the taxes, HOA, and Mello Roos will total about $50,000.00 per year.

Way more million dollar homes than millionaires.

I just did a rough calculation of how many multi-million dollar, (let’s say over $2M) homes are FOR SALE in Orange County and I got 1494.  I don’t how many buyers of over $2M homes are presently looking for a home, or even how over $2M home buyers there are in a year in Orange County, but something tells me it ain’t 1500 or even 1000 or even 750.  I dunno.

awgee - 09 June 2008 03:28 PM

I just did a rough calculation of how many multi-million dollar, (let’s say over $2M) homes are FOR SALE in Orange County and I got 1494.  I don’t how many buyers of over $2M homes are presently looking for a home, or even how over $2M home buyers there are in a year in Orange County, but something tells me it ain’t 1500 or even 1000 or even 750.  I dunno.

A quick SoCalMLS search with limits on OC, a wildcard for city, and minimum $2M pricetag shows 1163 active listings as of 8:45 this morning.  (Many Newport Beach active listings are not included in this figure since they typically list only in the ValetMLS system.)

Do you guys think that at the same time the bottom end eats away at that indestructable 2000-4000 sq foot magic zone in Irvine where prices don’t seem to be dropping, the high end will eventually cave and put even more pressure on them?

Why do the homes need to be so big?  What’s wrong with building a “small” 3,500 sq ft home for your family?

What does someone do with a 13,000 sq ft home, 9 bedrooms, 11 baths and a 9 car garage?

they’d buy it for the tax deduction, duh.

They need a place to park their nine H2s.

.

.

You can add another 7 properties that are currently for sale as ‘quiet listings’ that aren’t listed in MLS that I’m aware of plus another 3 that I know are coming on the market within the next 6 weeks so bring that total to 60.  Most of the buyers of custom homes buy with cash but I still think that the Shady Canyon buyer is someone rather unique and can see value in buying a lot with a ‘pastoral view’ versus an ocean or city lights view…now granted I’m one of those and I prefer Shady over any other area I’ve seen but I see the uniqueness, just not the current avg price per sq. ft. of $892.  One listing has dropped to $675 and Ive seen prices on single homes drop over $2MM over the past 12 months.  I think the end of the year will bring even more deals since I know several homes that are in trouble already.

Equitymind - Any properties in particular we might find it interesting to keep our eyes on?

the tax records on 11 redbird list the owner as a charles eusey.  wonder if this is the same guy.  business must be slow…

http://capitaladvisorsre.com/

the orig assessed value was around $1.8M back in 2002.  asking for $3.5 is just rude.

So what is it, like, 1 out of every 5 homes is for sale?  That must be cool to have all of that space and not have to deal with any noisy neighbors.  To me that’s a greater premium than any pastoral, ocean or city view. 

It is a shame, however, that they had to bulldoze all of those hills when people had no intention of living there.

.

The thing to consider is how much those houses would cost to construct in a vaccum.  I asked here before,  and someone said that apparently “luxury homes” cost around 400 a square foot or more to develop not counting land prices.  So, if you think about your average 5-6k sq.ft shady canyon residence, its not that overpriced.

.

I’ve been up to Shady Canyon a few times in the past month. I really don’t understand how Goldfinch and Redbird would both be over $3M. For that price, I would much rather get an ocean view house in Laguna or Newport Coast.

skek - 12 June 2008 05:20 PM

Shady Canyon may be some of the most expensive suburban, non-oceanfront real estate in the world.  I just don’t see the demand or the economy to justify it.

And yet your favorite Congressman bought there.  Perhaps that fact is not a propos of anything, but I find it sort of interesting.

[Edited to add a smiley.  I’m just yanking your chain for fun.  While I disagree with the guy on a number of things, I have always found his office to be responsive and helpful.  Seems like a nice (if misguided) guy, too.]

“Mostly, my beef is with the prices—Shady Canyon may be some of the most expensive suburban, non-oceanfront real estate in the world.”

Shady seems like a bargain relative to Palm Desert prices (adjusting for weather and proximity to the ocean).  Check out Zip Code 92210 (The Reserve), and you will find some truly startling prices, for real estate that was close to the ocean 65 million years ago.

the avg $/sq ft in 92210 for whats listed on redfin is $375.  if shady drops to that level, look out! 

probably wont though… :(

You have to filter 92210 for the gated communities (The Reserve, Vintage, etc).  Exclude the crap, and you will see plenty of Shady Canyon-esque prices and styles.  In fact, I am under the impression that the same developers were involved in all three communities.

BTW, I am with you.  If Shady Canyon drops to $375 a square I’ll buy a whole block!

skek - 12 June 2008 05:20 PM

my understanding is that they didn’t bulldoze the hills there—one of the unique aspects of Shady is that they built the community without disturbing the natural topography of the land.

How did the Irvine Company manage to create 25,000+ sq ft lots and 7,000+ sq ft homes without bulldozing hills?  They must be able to work miracles.

.

IrvineRealtor - 09 June 2008 03:48 PM

awgee - 09 June 2008 03:28 PM

I just did a rough calculation of how many multi-million dollar, (let’s say over $2M) homes are FOR SALE in Orange County and I got 1494.  I don’t how many buyers of over $2M homes are presently looking for a home, or even how over $2M home buyers there are in a year in Orange County, but something tells me it ain’t 1500 or even 1000 or even 750.  I dunno.

A quick SoCalMLS search with limits on OC, a wildcard for city, and minimum $2M pricetag shows 1163 active listings as of 8:45 this morning.  (Many Newport Beach active listings are not included in this figure since they typically list only in the ValetMLS system.)

I guess that most people who buy multi-million dollar homes are not financing the full amount.  I would be surprised if the downpayment wasn’t at least 50% on average.  Ok, you’ll ask how do you get $1M or $2M for downpayment?  I think it’s possible if you started making good money early; invested your money wisely and you built a good portfolio.  Also, some people really made a lot of money with RE.  Most people are buy-up buyers (really!?!?).  Anyhow, I think that a household making $300k can buy something in the $2M range.

I agree that the inventory is way too much compared to the pool of buyers.  However, I don’t think that looking at the sales of the last few months represent the potential pool of buyers either.  You don’t make a ton of money and waste it on a home when it is clear it will lose value.  People who make that much money are bright (in general) and can recognize a good vs a bad deal.

Final point, Shady Canyon is WAY overpriced compared to Newport Coast and Pelican Hill.  An ocean view home is worth so much more IMO.

ABC123 - 12 June 2008 10:42 PM

skek - 12 June 2008 05:20 PM

my understanding is that they didn’t bulldoze the hills there—one of the unique aspects of Shady is that they built the community without disturbing the natural topography of the land.

How did the Irvine Company manage to create 25,000+ sq ft lots and 7,000+ sq ft homes without bulldozing hills?  They must be able to work miracles.

Remember, just because it is part of your lot does not mean that it is flat buildable land.  Also, as I look at the map, it appears that they built in the canyons (as opposed to on the slope) to the extent possible.  My eyes may be wrong, though.