Does anyone know how many of the homes there are selling for less than their purchase price?

Here’s one house in Shady Canyon that sold for a loss. 
Mark McGwire’s Old House
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Mark McGwire’s old house in Shady Canyon (3 Redbird, Irvine) FINALLY sold on 11/8/07 for $3,150,000. (It was purchased on 3/8/06 for $3,950,000)
This house was posted on IHB some time ago (comments were closed).

Assuming 6% commission, the seller lost $989,000 or 25% in <u>exactly</u> 1 year and 8 months. 

Boy, McGwire held the home run record longer than his house could hold it’s value.

Since January 1, 2008 only two homes have sold (via MLS) in Shady, both sold for well less than their asking price.
I would love to be a buyer in Shady, I would hate to be a seller in Shady

out of the 30 currently listed homes for sale in Shady (MLS) each and everyone of these homes should be sold less than asking price, some more than others depending on how much kool aid the sellers consume.

Out of the 30 homes for sale, 5 are villas the other 25 are customs.  Customs should be had for well well under $1,000 a sq.ft. unlike the boom days where these customs were selling for $1,000+sq.ft.  The Villas, not too sure i’d have to do some research.

hope this helps

Good thread ABC.  I’m fascinated by Shady—how the prices there got so high, and how low they will go.

Here is what I have according to Title for 3 Redbird
4-15-2002 Mark Mcgwire purchases from Taylor Woodrow, transfer value $1,842,500 (just so you know, this home was a villa and not a custom)
3-8-2006 Mcgwire sells to the 2nd owner with a transfer value of $3,950,000
11-8-2007 2nd owner sells to the 3rd owner transfer value $3,150,000

2nd owner gets caught with his pants down as he buys at the top of the housing market.  Mcgwire makes out okay, he got in on the early phase.  The 3rd owner…time will tell.  Prices will come down somemore, but in the long run I think the 3rd owner will be somewhat ok.

“Mcgwire makes out okay, he got in on the early phase.”

sell4u must make a huge amount of $$ in real estate, since making almost $2M on a home in less than 4 years is only “okay”.

3 Redbird was McGuire’s temporary housing while his custom was being built.

although the sales person working the open house when we visited probably told us 10 times it used to be owned by McGuire
skek, we visited it as well, and I think the realtor told us more than 10 times it used to be owned by McGwire.  It was a bit over the top. 

Anything to sell a house, right CalGal?

I wonder if CW’s sales agent told people, "This house is currently owned by CapitalismWorks, of The IHB", when they toured through.

25 Golden Eagle is currently listed at below its selling price.  Was purchased Jan 6, 2006 for $4,030,000 and is currently listed at $3,750,000
44 Blue Heron was sold on 6/21/2007 for $13,995,000 and was placed back on the market in August of 2007 at 11,900,000 and is currently listed at $10,250,000 - really not sure what is happening there but seems extremely odd.

Have spent quite a bit of time looking at Shady Canyon and by speaking with several agents, most sellers would take considerably less than their asking price.  Two indicated that the sellers would entertain offers $800K off the asking price and one had been reduced by $2MM already.  Many are dropping their prices.  On the flip side, have been told that buyers in Shady Canyon are incredibly wealthy and many purchases are made in cash.  Will be interesting to see what happens in there by the end of the year.

I’m showing 35 active listings in MLS (No, I’m not an agent) although there are for sale signs on properties that aren’t in MLS and I know of at least one for sale by owner and one foreclosure property.

44 Blue Heron was purchased from the builder, probably for the $11,900,000, that you mention.  The buyer never moved in.  I heard through the grapevine that it recently went into escrow.
I would assume that anything over $5M is paid for with cash, and most properties for more than $3M are paid for with cash.

25 Golden Eagle is interesting—it is a custom home, a small one, but custom regardless.

Here’s what’s currently for sale in Shady Canyon, primarily in the "Villas" and "Sycamore" products: 

  9 Goldfinch, asking $3,695,000 ($965/sq ft) 26 DOM.
  2 Prairie Grass, asking $3,295,000  ($805/sq ft) 86 DOM.  Also for lease at $13k per month.
  6 Prairie Grass, asking $3,249,000 ($625/sq ft) 76 DOM.  Last sold for $2,181,500  on March 16, 2004.
  11 Prairie Grass, asking $3,795,000 ($895/sq ft) 76 DOM.  Last sold for $3,510,000 on August 16, 2005.
  32 Prairie Grass, asking $3,099,000 ($593/sq ft) 88 DOM.  Selling at a loss – last sold for $3,680,000 on July 28, 2006.
  37 Prairie Grass, asking $3,695,000 ($819/sq ft) 139 DOM.
  16 Vernal Spring, asking $3,550,000 ($679/sq ft) 47 DOM.
>

Compared to homes in Turtle Ridge, some of these villas seem reasonably priced now.  However, Turtle Ridge is probably not selling either.  These two communities are still looking for their bottoms…

awgee: I believe you’re correct, I heard through the grapevine 44 is back in escrow.  In escrow at $10.250m and I’m sure it will sell lower than that.
        never assume people’s loans, even on the big boy homes.  You’d be shocked if you saw the size of the loans out there on some of these high dollar homes in NC and Shady.

skek: the rule about having the smallest house on the block is called upside and its the best thing to have when your a small fish in a big pond.

asap: i just sold a Turtle Ridge home (4,000sq.ft.+) a month ago.  These homes are still in demand just not at the kool aid smoking prices most sellers are asking.  that’s okay though because there are negotiators like me

IrvineallergyDr.  Maybe that wasn’t the best way to describe Mcgwire’s killing he made.  Oh, and about how much I earn i’m betting your income is plenty higher than mine

sell—which unit did you sell in TRidge? 

skek - My take on Shady Canyon:
For the most part, there are two types of owners in Shady Canyon.  The buyers who bought to live there and have gobs of equity, probably bought for cash, and the spec home builder(s) who bought the land with a combo of cash and loan and borrowed to build.
The folks who bought to live there will probably not be desperate to sell, if even they want to sell.
Which brings us to the spec home builders: either a single builder, or a consortium of a realtor or two and a contractor/builder.  This is where it gets interesting.  Have you seen how many lots are empty, except for the weeds?  And watch the homes that are being built and go straight to market, (spec homes)?

Go to a few open houses.  The agents love to proclaim how every lot in Shady Canyon has been sold, some for millions.  What a riot!  Can you imagine being a spec home builder/realtor/broker right now?  You put just about every bit of cash you have down and borrowed some to buy the lot.  And either you found some lender to make a construction loan and you are looking at the worst market in over a decade, or you can’t get a loan and you are making payments and HOA fees and taxes on a piece of dirt.  And your income has dropped 90% because you are a realtor/broker/contractor and real estate isn’t exactly booming right now.  Geez, if you actually got the castle built, imagine what your payments must be.  You don’t think the speculators got a fixed rate loan, do you?  And my guess is that the builder doesn’t get his last draft until the castle sells.
Multi-million dollar buyers are not stupid.  They understand a trend.  They didn’t get rich by believing some realtor telling them that it’s a buyer’s market and interest rates are low and this property has two offers coming in this evening.  They are watching this market and watching the builders dispassionately, like sharks waiting until they smell blood ... or until they see blood running in the streets.

@shek

I don’t see a sale for 11 Prairie Grass but still show it as an active listing however I know three properties are currently in escrow (don’t know which three).

50 Vernal Springs is a semi custom estate by John Laing Homes, it sits on an interior corner lot.

24 Tree Fern (lot) was sold on 1/23/2008 to add to your list, but I don’t have any other sales in the last 6 mos. to add but looking at all sales over the last year I see 22 closed sales but I dont have 29 Sage Creek or 31 Salt Bush on my lists - do have the sales data on those? (date, price per sq. ft etc).

As far as inventory I know of another home on Boulder view coming on the market in the next few weeks and I know of one other home that is for sale ‘privately’ - in other words it isn’t listed on MLS but the owners would sell if approached (or select agents can mention it to select clients) so this puts the inventory of Shady Canyon at >10% of the entire area (including lots for sale).

Ever heard of soon to be closed Thornburg mortgage?  You’d be surprised by how many multi-million dollar loans there are out there.

how many total homes in shady canyon?

Shady Canyon is limited to 400 homes although there isn’t near to that number built out yet - perhaps closer to 300 or less - most of the homes currently listed are spec homes - in fact of the 20 or so properties that I’ve toured recently, only 1 was currently being lived in, all the rest were vacant or professionally staged.

There are a few established somewhat inland higher end OC communities that could provide a reference point for where shady canyon prices could head. So we’ll include communities with large premium homes (3k sf- 10k+) with large lots and no ocean view. Off the top of my mind, there are three communities that fit the description, Dove Canyon/Coto, Nellie Gail and Ladera Ranch Covenant Hills.

I do think that Shady Canyon is ‘special’ and has some things that will allow it to be the highest end inland community.

1. Very quiet and private

2. Large lots (although not >1 acre like some in NG and Coto)

3. Very close to job centers in Irvine

Although I think the fact that Shady is not equestrian hurts a bit. I’m not sure why they made that decision, but i think it adds a bit of value to the homes in Nellie Gail and Coto

Now, if you’re a long term buyer and are looking in 20 years time where will it be? I think the premium over the established communities will have worn off and it will end up with pretty comparable costs per sf. for all three communities (coto, NG and SC), and Ladera trading at a discount

We’ve been looking at lots in Shady - any comments on what the most desirable lots would be and what they are REALLY worth? We’re looking at the lots on Boulder View and Canyon Creek. C.Creek has some view lots in the $2.595m range, but they are very narrow and it’s a busy street compared to the others in Shady. Also, since there are no houses built around the lots with the best view, you’re going to have to put up with construction vehicles and noise for the next few years as the lots around you are built (assuming you are first to build).

Here’s a some more fun sale info for 31 Salt Bush mentioned above

Here’s the earliest:http://www.lrkinc.com/Listings/PrintableFlyer.ASPX?LID=15919627

$8MM!!!

Relisted by John McMonigle August 2007: $7.4MM

At some point the price dropped to $6.75MM

Sold in january for $5.8MM

Not a bad little $2.2MM price drop

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=63113848