What if you can’t sell your current home for the price you want/need?

Won’t there always be unknown unknowns?  That wouldn’t be much of a life if you huddled up waiting for these so called Black Swan events.  I try not to worry about things I cannot control. 
What I can control is making a smart housing decision for myself.  It probably makes me a bull by the IHB definition, but I’ll be buying when the house my family can live in for 20 years comes into a comfortable affordability range.  I’m not worrying about when the bottom is, I’m worried about enjoying this precious life to the fullest.   So maybe I could buy the same house for $150k less in 2012 than I could in 2009?  Big F***king Deal!  To me, enjoying a home and building family memories for those addtional 3 years (while my daughter is going from 6 - 9 years old) is worth FAR more than $150k.   I have a lot of fond memories of my elementary school years —- spent in the same house my parents are still in.  In 30 years I want my child to look back on those years the same way.
I think the housing bears should be very cautious about becoming as extreme on one end of the spectrum as specuvestors of 2004 - 06 were on the other end of the spectrum.
 

Ipop,
but I’m still waiting for someone to toss out something useful that I haven’t considered…
I think you have considered quite enough of the factors;  It appears that you follow your guts and your heart to care for your family, and that is really all you need.  The rest of challenges you just have to deal with as they come.
 layerliz,
the problem is unknown unknowns
So true and cool statement
I bought my first home in my 20’s based on 100% emotion (and clueless of the real estate market).  My house was $100K and I was single making $25K/year, interest rate was 12%.  With today interest rate of 6%,  and my salary doing similar work would be around $75K, the price of the home would have been 6X or $600K.  Now, that sounds just crazy but I did it.
By mid 30’s, my housing cost was the least of my concern.  Currently I live in a $1M+ home with the same payment I had in my 20’s. 
I know of so many people who are in similar situation as I am.  Median price and median income do not have to correlate.

Blue - Don’t really need a price (I am non-contingent on the buy), but that really is the big variable in my buying situation.  I take recent comps, current list prices, and then lop off another $25K or so normally.
For example, I have a competing unit in my neighborhood, same plan, a pending REO that is being sold as a short, that is at $580K list.  They have had offers at $550-560Kish but the bank has been unwilling.  Mine has a good location premium vs. this one and for sure has an upgrade premium vs. this competing home, so I assume I can get an offer and sale at $575K.  Back in the summer, when units essentially the same as my home were selling $650-675K, I was using a number of $625K for my calcs. 
If the market headed down quickly at the time I bought/put my place on the market, I would have some risk.  I’d have to drop my price to get a quick sale, but in that case I’d just push the seller on a house for concessions.  Obviously if the market turned further down unexpectedly, I’d be in escrow at a higher price than what a seller would think they could get in the future.  There is some risk there, but not a ton as long as my price isn’t a WTF or wish price.  I have to be prepared to sell at market or a little less… 
Liz - Sorry, no books about unknown unknowns for me.  Houses are homes to me, not investments.  I refuse to sit paralyzed by possible freak future unknows.  I want a place for my kids to put down roots, form lasting relationships with neighbors, a friggin’ driveway to park our cars, and a darn backyard.  IMHO, people need to live and enjoy their lives, not sit by fretting about the least obvious possible negative occurrences or outcomes.  For my personal buying decision, I will look at the big picture items like the security of our income stream, the risk associated with my payment stream related to a move-up house, etc.  If everyone waited for confirmed utopia to occur before they bought, we’d all be renting… 

Man CK, you and I were writing the same damn thing at the same time…  My brutha from anutha mutha! 

Right on, IPO.  If I told you what I did for a living, you’d probably think there was a Black Swan coming.  I’ll give you a hint, I’m working on Q2 Fcst right now…

Different circumstances, different solutions. In no way do I suggest that the current market does not have an opportunities for those who have a fine load of savings stacked up, have that top corporate job and have the stomach to digest a huge decline. One size does not fit all and one man’s food is another man’s poison pill.
With all that in mind and assuming you know yourself well and know what will keep you happy, go ahead and buy that perfect home!

IPO, I understand that you have the ability and willingness to buy. I guess you are just looking for a bargain in the current market rather than indulging in a quest to determine market direction, perfect time to buy or other such considerations which apply to people who might not have your mindset or financial muscle. I wish you all the very best For the rest of us the macro economy and lot of the uncertainties still matter. I am in my early 30s so I definitely will not live in the house I buy untill I die:)

“Won’t there always be unknown unknowns?  That wouldn’t be much of a life if you huddled up waiting for these so called Black Swan events.  I try not to worry about things I cannot control.

What I can control is making a smart housing decision for myself.  It probably makes me a bull by the IHB definition, but I’ll be buying when the house my family can live in for 20 years comes into a comfortable affordability range.  I’m not worrying about when the bottom is, I’m worried about enjoying this precious life to the fullest.  So maybe I could buy the same house for $150k less in 2012 than I could in 2009?  Big F***king Deal!  To me, enjoying a home and building family memories for those addtional 3 years (while my daughter is going from 6 - 9 years old) is worth FAR more than $150k.  I have a lot of fond memories of my elementary school years —- spent in the same house my parents are still in.  In 30 years I want my child to look back on those years the same way.

I think the housing bears should be very cautious about becoming as extreme on one end of the spectrum as specuvestors of 2004 - 06 were on the other end of the spectrum.”

I could not agree with this statement more. With every decision you make, there will be risks and rewards. Some are small, some are bigger. Some may choose to live in fear of those risks, I choose not to. I have certain financial advantages that greatly reduce my risks, and I am thankful for those.

Considering buying a home in this market does not automatically make you a housing bull; it may just mean you are a housing bear that is willing to suffer paper losses for an unknown period of time to come in exchange for home ownership.

I already own a home, but am considering moving to cut my wife’s commute time down from 35-60 minutes to 15 minutes. That alone, I’m willing to pay a hundred grand for. The other considerations, like going from a 2 car garage to a 3 car garage, gaining an extra 1000 sq ft inside, and perhaps increasing our property lot size 1.5-2x, is worth another three to four hundred grand. So, in the end, prices are coming close to what we’re willing to pay, another 10% would seal the deal. Am I concerned that prices may go down another 10% on top of that? Only a little, in an academic sense I suppose. But like CK says, having the few years in the home in a more convenient location with a few more amenities in a setting where I don’t have to wonder what my lease terms will be within a year or if I’ll suddenly be kicked out is worth taking that risk to me.

I am worried about this (from http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10534992) and this (from http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/10/2/111911/949)
 
 I am starting to think of a house in a new way - not as a long term buy that keeps pace with inflation, but as a disposible good (like a car) that will be worth nothing or much less when I finally sell it.  When the cost of a place that’s nicer than my rental, and the difference in living standards seems worth throwing away the capital to be to live there, then I’ll be buying.

Anonyomus, I was just telling my friends yesterday that that is just how I view my house sometimes. I NEVER compare owning to rental, as rental only becomes a choice when I have no other choices (while still keep a balanced budget/saving plan).  I track / compare everything on EXCEL, but I never bothered to do the rent vs. own comparision as owning my own places for me worth the extra several thousand a month.  I am sure many peeple won’t agree with this view.  But it is a waste of time to argue which view is correct and wrong, as just like buying car, people has difference taste, different budget, and different view of life.

I am interested to know how most people on this blog defines a “bull”. I guess if you are buying, or you don’t believe the house price will go back to 1999/2000 price, or you believe housing in longer term keep up with inflation in general, then you are a bull.

irvine123 - I rather like renting acutally.  Not really into fixing place up much, less maintenance is good.

If you buy a new or relatively new or well maintained home, there is not much fixing to do.
 
The trick is to move on when your house gets old - just like a car!! haha

Two new escrows from yesterday I found:
http://members.cox.net/ipoplaya/
The Nebraska place is around the corner from a unit on Utah featured on the blog.  Calls by some of our resident ultra bears were for these places to sell in the $400s…  Somehow I don’t think they had to take that little.

Definition of Bull - The traditional definition of a bull is someone who expects prices to rise. In the strict sense there would be very few if any bulls on this site. I think we have ‘most bears’ here with some ‘indifferent bears’ and then some bears who see nothing fundamentally wrong with valuations other than the downturn being a part of the current economic cycle.  That is just me though. Thanks for bringing this into the spotlight, Irvine123.

Would anyone know why this is on the market now for $465k, it was sold in Oct 07 for $486K
http://orange.yahoo.prucalrealty.net/details/start.aspx?Results=true&propid=008Mc08008466&mode=Search
http://www.trulia.com/homes/California/Irvine/sold/784959-802-Terra-Bella-Irvine-CA-92602.
  I can’t imagine anyone going into forclosure so soon..

Straw buyer.  Fraud.

waiting - the 10/16/07 transaction was probably the foreclosure.  If you see a house sell, and then go right back on to MLS within a couple of months, it’s likely an REO.  Given the no name realtor and no pics, I’d definitely think it was bank-owned…

Scary stuff in that Oil Drum link, Anon….
Lower—maybe much lower—demand over a significant period of time (a few years) masks the global production peak but does not help solve it. When the global economy does finally emerge from a recession, the same old problems will still be with us but mitigation efforts will have been crippled. Furthermore, most people will be persuaded that the peak was a fiction due to the low prices they have just seen during the recession. In the meantime, however, the world will still have been consuming oil—large amounts of it—thus draining existing production but without developing new supply as the low prices put many projects on hold.
That 0% financing on a Chevy Tahoe might not seem like such a good idea after all.

ipoplaya,

Thanks for starting this thread. It is great to see what is actually happening out there, and I hope you are able to update us on the closings with the final sales price. I sincerely mean it, even if there is some snarkiness below.

Just FYI, the property at 9 Utah is scheduled for the foreclosure auction on 1/24, and the NTS amount is $714k. That NTS amount is really high for what the loan data shows, so I would imagine it is an option ARM. With the second on there, I am guessing that the minimum bid will be close to the NTS amount, and that it will go back to the bank.

There isn’t that much else in 92606, except a few condos on Ladrillo Aisle, but 92602 and 92620 are more than making up for it. 14 Carlyle in 92620, just went back to the bank for $678.5k, it had a NTS of $732.6k, and it sold for $855k in 10/06. This is a 2500 sqft. 4/3 home. If you are serious, and if I were you, I would find out who the lien holder is. Then, I would call them, and work my way up the ladder of their loss mit department and offer them $500k. Yeah, yeah, I know… I am just one the nuttier bears here, but if it is a scratch and dent lender, or an IB like Goldman, who bought some of these toxic pools for 30-40 cents on the dollar from BK’d lenders, then they still make a profit at that price.

I need to update the foreclosure thread, because 55 Granada in 92602, just went back to the bank for $630.7k, and it sold for $860k in 2/07. Must be fraud, because the comps on zillow are way below that, but even the zestimate is $778k. Even if it is fraud, there are plenty more coming.

Hey graph.  If one can believe the realtor representing the owners at 9 Utah, I can they will get it into escrow before it goes to auction.  He suggested that an offer above $725K would stave off auction proceedings and I’m guessing they probably have had as such.  I’d bet, only a small sum though, that 9 Utah gets sold before too long.
West Irvine does seem like it is REO central along with older Northwood and to an extent Northpark.  I tried chasing properities (had my Realtytrac subscription) that were NOD or already foreclosed on back in the summer.  It was pain.  Didn’t have the patience… 

ipoplaya,

You may be right on 9 Utah, we will have to see what happens. It still shows up on ZipRealty, and when a home goes into escrow, it usually doesn’t show up on Zip after that. If it does or doesn’t go into escrow by the 24th, it still could get postponed. Personally, I think it will go back to the bank. It really isn’t that great of a home, and homes without a wow factor are not selling.

Sorry to hear you wasted your money on RealtyTrac. There are better services out there, like foreclosure radar, and there are ways to get it for free. Back in the summer though, was not the best time to be looking for foreclosure properties, because they have gone up, and they will continue to go up as the credit crunch of August starts to pan out. Just wait until the January NOD numbers come out, records are meant to be broken, and they will be. I do highly recommend you work on finding patience. I mean, you are seriously interested in buying a home, so I would think taking your time to find the right home, with that kind of financial commitment, would be important. That, and finding a better deal would be important as well.

Good luck with your search, and keep the updates coming.

I went back into December on 2000+ sf places and updated my listing.  Should start seeing some closing prices before too long…
Moved to another site since I ran out of space @ Cox.
www.ipoplaya.com now.

Thanks for the list! Do you have a price limit set on the properties you’re searching, or only by 2000+ sq ft? I’m a bit more interested in what’s moving in the 1.1-1.5M range.

Up to $1.25M doc, 3/2 minimum, 2000+ sf.
 

Thanks, awesome list.  Two things:
1. go to google.com/adsense and sign up, you ought to make some ad revenue from the site.  Or better, go to amazon.com to become an associate and link some real estate books.
2. Are you planning to list price per sq. ft. in there?  Would be nice to search the columns by that.