For a list of recent escrow entries, check out www.ipoplaya.com
 
I keep a pretty good watch on 2000+ sf properties and will post updates here as I run across them.
Today’s escrow entrant, a Cal Pac place in Northwood II:
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1341646 

And another for today… 
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1385475
This one is in Sheridan, one house in from the tollroad (Portola exit) at 7 Easthaven.  Essentially same model in a better location in Sheridan (without the 3-car garage but with built-out loft as bedroom) closed a month or two ago for $810K.  This one was priced to move quickly.  I had the opportunity to tour this house before the couple decided whether or not to accept the relo package.  Not bad inside, and had a big yard that needed some work.  Even with the windows closed, you could still hear the cars on Portola and the tollroad.
Sellers paid $874K for this home in October 2006 so this transaction will likely be 15-20% off peak pricing.

Wow, and another escrow entrant.  Same realtor put two houses into escrow today:
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1336564
Address on this is 18 Easthaven. Also in the Sheridan tract of West Irvine…  Had been on the market for quite some time and recently changed realtors.  Brought back on MLS at a considerably reduced price and got into escrow pretty quickly.

ipoplaya- great research, but will you follow the deal all the way though to see if they make it though escrow? alot of deals seem to be falling apart once they are in escrow, due to new standard in lending.

18 Easthaven- From $790k to $700k (asking) in 5 weeks.  Transaction probably price borders on $300/sq ft.
SCHB

 
Ipop,
 
Excellent thread, thanks for starting it.
I appreciate your contributions on this and the main board.
Have benefited greatly, kudos to you.
I’ve been keeping my eye on 36 Secret Garden in Northwood II.
It recently dipped below 1M.
I like the size, over 3,000sq.feet and overall layout.
Considering offering 925K, what do you think?

Before you make the offer, make sure you LOVE the house. (floor plan, not backed to a major street, etc). Too many choices to settle at this market!
If you really want to buy, offer them $900K, which makes it exactly $300 a sq ft.  Considering VOCs  homes are selling at $300 / sq ft without landscape, if you can get it for $900K, probably is an good deal in the current market .  Just be prepared to that you might see neigbourhood comps continue to drop a little bit.  Unlike others, I don’t belive the comps of those homes will drop $250 sq ft.  ( you might see seveal selling a very low price, but that won’t define the trend unless you see a lot). 
Just for your information, I nearly bought a 3000 sq ft homes in Northpark in 1999, at that time they were priced right around $200 sq ft without landscape, without window treatment, without granite countertop, and appliances, without fancy woodflooring,etc.  In 1999, those fancy features are super expansive upgrades, and very very few people take them.  at 3% appreciate rate, it will bring to $260 sq ft in 2008.  If the owner has done $100K workth of upgrades, then that addes about another $33 / sq ft.  That brings you the total to $293.
If all the houses are selling at those appreicate rate, I don’t believe we will have a bubble like we have now.  So my simple pea brain tells me, that if you were to buy a good house in a good location, $300 / sq ft is a NOT a bubble price.  

Irvine123: Just for your information, I nearly bought a 3000 sq ft homes in Northpark in 1999, at that time they were priced right around $200 sq ft without landscape, without window treatment, without granite countertop, and appliances, without fancy woodflooring,etc.  In 1999, those fancy features are super expansive upgrades, and very very few people take them.  at 3% appreciate rate, it will bring to $260 sq ft in 2008.  If the owner has done $100K workth of upgrades, then that addes about another $33 / sq ft.  That brings you the total to $293.
I agree with your 3% appreciation rate calculation estimate of $260/sq ft being a fair price now, but I have to disagree with the $33/sq ft upgrade premium.
With so many used houses on the market right now, and with builders offering many incentives/upgrades on new ones, the upgrade premium, if it exists today, will disappear very quickly in the next year or so.  If one is willing to ride out the loss of equity at $33/sq ft, or $33 x 3000 = $99,000 potential loss, then go for it.  Otherwise, I would suggest waiting to buy until $250 - $260 becomes the norm (just as it took 2 years for $300/sq ft to become "socially acceptable" )

 
Irvine 123,
Thanks for the feedback.
I found your comments to be very helpful and insightful.
Your comment about loving it, and not settling in this market particularly hit home. Yeah, I don’t love the house but like the price point $950K.  This one has some competition; two other homes with same floor plan and square footage are priced higher. So there may be some room to the downside.Ideally, I would rather live in Northpark.  Unfortunately, similar square footage is running in the $1.2M range. A house that I really love is 1 Poway, located in Northpark.  If this one dropped under $1M, there’d be a bidding war between myself and Ipop who’s also looking in Northpark.

Hey Ten.  I have been watching NW II closely as well.  I have yet to tour one of those 3100sf units, but will soon.  Personally, I’m not particularly keen on the exteriors of those places.  Bit boxy for my taste.  I’d overlook that for interior space though assuming a good price. 

Trabuco is going to get very busy once the Great Park is built out IMO so I wouldn’t want any property that backs to it.  I am buying a 20-30 year place and the roar of cars on Trabuco for that long isn’t exactly in my dream home vision…  If one of these on an interior street was sub $1M I might make a run.  If you got your realtor to kick back 1.5-2% on the transaction and could get one of these for $950K, it would be down to nearly $300/sf.

Unfortunately, there is still much koolaid hangover in NW II.  Check out this new ultra super WTF listing:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1404258

 
Hey Ipop,
 
Didn’t even consider the fact that the property might back up to Trabuco. You make a great point about future congestion; glad you brought that up. Wholeheartedly agree about the exteriors looking drab and boxy. That’s a big drawback for me as well.  On the other hand, I like the square footage, interior layout, and price point. I’m looking for a place to put some roots down, start and raise a family and live in for the long haul.

ipo—- Great thread, and thanks so much for your research.  As somebody who is very interested the newer North Irvine communities, it is great to see these coming down to the $300 sq ft range. The market is getting closer and closer to my personal triggering prices. We just got our lease renewal yesterday—- and decided to re-up for just 9 months rather than the 12 we were planning on, in large part because I think the market will be where I want it by the end of the year.  Seeing these recent escrow prices helped to make that decision.  Thanks.
I’ll be very interested to see what price 7 Easthaven closed for…..

Interesting thread. I too am considering buying in North Irvine or Tustin. If the house/lot is right, I’d be more than happy to pay $300/sq ft. Heck, I’d pay $350/sq ft for the right home. Problem is, I’d have to sell my current home, although really that is more of a time issue than a pricing issue, as I’d accept $300/sq ft for my home, which would should sell fairly quickly as homes have sold at $325/sq ft in my neighborhood recently.

I’ve looked at 1 Poway, okay home, but I kind of need a 3 car garage.

that is indeed a super WTF listing.  there are several of the exact same home for sale on rising sun in woodbury.  there’s one recent short sale for $800k but most are listed in the $900 range which is still WTF.

Irvine Allergy - I’m in the same boat as you, and a 3-car garage is definitely my preference.  One bay for tools, the other bay for a Harley, and the third bay for kids crap…  Don’t see many of them in Northpark.  Tustin Ranch seems to have a good many 3-car garages on homes of varying sizes.  It’s not uncommon to find 2400sf in TRanch that has a three-car.  That is rare in Irvine IMHO.  I think we’ll end up buying in the newer part of TRanch, maybe before 2008 is up if the right place hits the market.

Again, great thread. This is the kind of thread all potential buyers need to guage when to buy a home.

I agree 100% with Irvine123 and his calculations on price psf based on the 1999 home he almost bought. I did similar analysis to buy my home.

Just to add, I’ve posted this before, but would be relevant here. Bought in Nov, VOC. well over 3000 sft. I loved the house, so I jumped in. Right next to model home, no houses in front of me, great view of the park, etc. Price before upgrades was $230 psf. Price after upgrades was $255. Not surprisingly, all 4 available homes sold within a week of prices dipping to these levels.

ipoplaya - how about putting a car in that 3-CAR garage?

I need to talk IPO into a fridge, bar, and big screen TV in one bay.  Any guy with a 3 car garage that does not have at least one space reserved for the neighbor guys to come hang out  should probably have his man card revoked.

LOL!

Actually, I need the 3 car garage for 3 cars. 

I’ve been reading this forum for some time, all the posts are very informative and has been instrumental in holding me back from buying too soon. I’ve kept my range at 500k and when I check the houses I see the smaller ones still at > 400/sq.ft. Is there any reason why these are not going down compared to the bigger ones that you have shown.

Probably a few reasons. One, these are examples of homes actually selling. They are priced closer to the market. Whereas, the 500k range homes you are looking at haven’t come as much off the bubble pricing. Otherwise, you’d probably be buying. Two, land is a fixed cost, while construction cost is on a per sq. ft. cost basis. Third, one might say at lower home price levels there is a great population of possible buyers, though I’m not sure I agree. I wonder if it is the opposite that there are so many homes on the market in that price range, that RE agents (and sellers)  are more able find similar properties with WTF pricing that can justify their own listing prices.

That’s probably true, the houses that I’m looking at are overpriced and nobody’s buying. I saw one being reduced from 600 to 450 and it went into escrow in 2 days. That made me wonder will all the nearby sellers follow suit and lead to a bidding war. but so far no one else has reduced.

"I don’t belive the comps of those homes will drop $250 sq ft.  ( you might see seveal selling a very low price, but that won’t define the trend unless you see a lot)."

This is an interesting form of market denial. I spoke with someone who went through the 90s correction in Irvine, and he said the value of his home did not drop. When I asked him if he had to sell during this time would he have sold it for less than its "value," he said yes. It is just like the statement above as if there is a difference between a homes "value" and what it would sell for on the market. There isn’t. A property is only worth what someone will pay for it in the open market. If comparable properties are selling for $200 / SF, that is the value of homes.

The mantra of knife catchers who survive the downturn is their home did not drop in value. It is more emotionally satisfying to believe this distortion of reality than it is for people to admit they overpaid and were a knife catcher.

OR you can get this similar property in Foothill Ranch.  Except this is insanely upgraded with a pool in the backyard for 225,000 less than the first property in Northpark

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1243447

IR,

After I typed the comment you quoted, I told myself that you will be making the comments above!

I completely agree with you that price of the property will only be determined by someone who is willing to pay.  However, just because there is one house in the same track sold for a record low due to foreclosure , that doesn’t mean all the houses will be sold at that record low:  not many people “have to sell”, and not everyone views the housing market as you view it. There are many people just want to a house to live in, and not wanting to wait for the bottom.  the last time I checked, the volume are down, but not down to zero.  You can call them all stupid / knife catcher/ etc - and I happen to know several of those “stupid knife catcher” who happen to be well educated top executives of fortune 200 companies. 

For renters, I think it is also emotionally satisfying to believe that not buying 5 to 7 years ago is the greatest decision they ever made. For those who sold at the peak while waiting on the side line to get it, it is emotionally critical to believe the market will down deep. Otherwise, their intelligence will be questioned, their financial ability will be questioned.  Everyone need to have some hope. For the owners, we hope the market won’t drop too much. For the renters, they hope the market to go to a tail spin.

Good luck with your $200 sq ft hope in nice part of Irvine.  When that happens, I will change Shandy Canyon to my private ranch. 

My analysis doesn’t show 1999 / 2000 price is in any forms of bubble.  Considering modest appreciation, the right price for an average Irvine house in good location should be between $250 to $300.  Only time will tell who is in denial here.

waiting - Couple of thing to consider here.  #1, there are a great many places going for sub $400/sf.  My place has dropped to around $350-360/sf.  It’s 1622sf 3/2.5 in West Irvine.  Peak pricing was around $450/sf.  Per square foot prices are not a complete measure.  They will tend to trend up as the unit size declines.  For example, in West Irvine, you can get a 3000sf place right now for $300/sf.  2200sf places around $325/sf and 1600sf places for around $350-360/sf.  Per sf prices are not linear so don’t get dialed in to them too much…
When people talk about bottom in per sf terms, they necessarily indicate on what size house they are discussing.  For example, I think bottom will be another 20% or so.  That’ll mean $500K should get you a 1600-1800sf place.  That’s just my opinion though and I am one of the least bearish you’ll find on the board.