The CK family has considered AV off and on over the last few years, but a recent weekend day over there (for a Scooter’s Jungle party ) has got us thinking again.  I hear what BK is saying, but when I look at what we would be targeting—- 2,000-2,300 sq ft less than 10 years old——the options in AV seem to blow away Irvine.  Couple of examples we like hitting the $250-$300 sq ft range:

Plateau
Plateau 2
Pierremont
Northern Pine

These are attention getting properties for me, because this is close to 1 salary range for our family….would love for my wife to be able to cut back.  Not sure when or if we will be able to get something like this in Irvine.  What do you guys think?  Are these getting close where AV will fall to?  Or does AV go all the way to $200 or so sq ft?  What is a “go for it” price for AV?

Those are all nice homes CK.  I think they’ll come down a bit more, I’ve seen a lot of the condos in Aliso start to take a dive way past the $300 sq ft marker.  I would guess in the next 3 or 4 months people will finally realize the ‘summer rally’ isn’t happening, and start to really get desperate.

Indeed, I have a friend who bought a bit down Wood Canyon from the Plateau neighborhood.  This is almost the exact same elevation/floorplan.  They bought for 725 (I’m sad for them).  Anyway, they had an REO go in their neighborhood for $449k….  Same FP and everything, though it did need a lot of work.

I’d chill.  We’re just beginning.

CK - AV is getting hit pretty hard in the foreclosure department, and it does not seem to be letting up. If you compare the amount of housing stock in AV to Anaheim, the foreclosure ratio would be almost the same. So, I checked into a few foreclosures for you. The ones that you linked are all west of the 73, so for the most part I did the same. If you want me to look up some that are east of the 73, then I will.

19 Maple, back to the bank for $509k.

73 Prairie Falcon, NTS of $598k, but will probably have a minimum bid of less.

21 Ridgecrest, minimum bid of $451k, and it is just east of the 73.

17 Dominguez, NTS of $556k.

20 Calypso, NTS of $509k.

Those are just a few to start with. There are a few that are above your price range, and a lot of condos below your price range. If the street ends in wood, then run away. It is a bloodbath in that complex. I think you will see prices for the type of home you are looking for drop to the low $500k range, and possibly lower in the next 6 months from now. If you can stand the idea of price drop like that, and you really love the home, then it might be worth it for you. Otherwise, I would wait a bit longer.

graphrix - 08 July 2008 05:54 PM

CK - AV is getting hit pretty hard in the foreclosure department, and it does not seem to be letting up. If you compare the amount of housing stock in AV to Anaheim, the foreclosure ratio would be almost the same. So, I checked into a few foreclosures for you. The ones that you linked are all west of the 73, so for the most part I did the same. If you want me to look up some that are east of the 73, then I will.

19 Maple, back to the bank for $509k.

73 Prairie Falcon, NTS of $598k, but will probably have a minimum bid of less.

21 Ridgecrest, minimum bid of $451k, and it is just east of the 73.

17 Dominguez, NTS of $556k.

20 Calypso, NTS of $509k.

Those are just a few to start with. There are a few that are above your price range, and a lot of condos below your price range. If the street ends in wood, then run away. It is a bloodbath in that complex. I think you will see prices for the type of home you are looking for drop to the low $500k range, and possibly lower in the next 6 months from now. If you can stand the idea of price drop like that, and you really love the home, then it might be worth it for you. Otherwise, I would wait a bit longer.

Right on, graph—- I hear you, and really appreciate the feedback.  It does look like AV is going to get to where we want to be a heck of a lot faster than Irvine.  We’ve be stuck on Irvine for so long now, but just are not seeing any real solid movement on pricing in our target neighborhoods.  Once we started opening our mind to AV, we liked what we saw.  Our lease is up 12/31.  I’m not going to do anything until then….But if we see 4 bed’s like these for the $500-$525k as you predict (and my money is you are right) there will be some real decisions to be made….Thanks.

Some of those houses are really nice, thanks for doing that work Graph. 

Someone said Aliso will have Mello-Roos, yet Laguna Niguel will not.  Is Laguna that much older than Aliso ?

CK - I missed one. Today 4 Laurelwood went back to the bank for $522k. So, I take back what I said about streets ending in wood, there might be a few that do that are not in the bloodbath complex. BTW, the NTS amount was almost $710k on this one. 4 beds west of the 73 for $522k is a huge drop, ouch.

Trooper - 08 July 2008 09:10 PM

Some of those houses are really nice, thanks for doing that work Graph. 

Someone said Aliso will have Mello-Roos, yet Laguna Niguel will not.  Is Laguna that much older than Aliso ?

Just old enough to avoid mello roos. LN was developed in the late 80s to late 90s, whereas AV was developed in the late 90s to currently. Some of the mello roos in AV are not that bad, and there are some areas of AV that do not have mello roos at all, but the area is crap. If I had to choose between the two, I would choose LN over AV even if it is further south. The weather at night is so much better there, as the fog can roll over the hill there. I think the hill down there is not as high, and you can cut through to the beach from side streets there. But, I hear the high schools are inferior the VP high, which means they are even worse than FV high, so I couldn’t move there, in the case that I might actually ever have kids.

graphrix - 10 July 2008 01:28 AM

Trooper - 08 July 2008 09:10 PM

Some of those houses are really nice, thanks for doing that work Graph. 

Someone said Aliso will have Mello-Roos, yet Laguna Niguel will not.  Is Laguna that much older than Aliso ?

Just old enough to avoid mello roos. LN was developed in the late 80s to late 90s, whereas AV was developed in the late 90s to currently. Some of the mello roos in AV are not that bad, and there are some areas of AV that do not have mello roos at all, but the area is crap. If I had to choose between the two, I would choose LN over AV even if it is further south. The weather at night is so much better there, as the fog can roll over the hill there. I think the hill down there is not as high, and you can cut through to the beach from side streets there. But, I hear the high schools are inferior the VP high, which means they are even worse than FV high, so I couldn’t move there, in the case that I might actually ever have kids.

That Laurelwood property that went back to the bank had been sitting for sale forever…at one point it was at $560k and fell out of escrow…then the listing said the bank had approved a sale at $580k. Apparently nobody stepped up.

CK, I’ve also been out in Aliso, and let me tell you it’s different than a year ago - many of the houses I went into are vacant, and prices are down there considerably. Realistically we’re probably into late 2003 prices right now, though there are still some knife catchers jumping in. There is still some room for prices to fall, though. And that’s not even taking into account an overshoot of fundamentals.

There are lots of foreclosures, and they don’t appear to be slowing down really at all. For instance, 2 Riqueza is scheduled for auction today.

Luarelwood is pretty nice

Something about homes with Wood in the name.  Dont buy anything in Lake Forest on Larkwood, wow!

Hmmmm….You guys are causing me to think some more, I don’t like to think too much you know.  Sounds like AV is getting brutalized.  While we want a bargain and the most for our money, we also don’t want to fall into the “buy the best house in the worst neighborhood” trap.  Not that I think that AV is a bad place—- but it might not be a wise investment.  Well, lots of time to think,  the market is definitely on our side.   We are going exploring down there on Sunday.

CK - 10 July 2008 09:17 AM

Hmmmm….You guys are causing me to think some more, I don’t like to think too much you know.  Sounds like AV is getting brutalized.  While we want a bargain and the most for our money, we also don’t want to fall into the “buy the best house in the worst neighborhood” trap.  Not that I think that AV is a bad place—- but it might not be a wise investment.  Well, lots of time to think,  the market is definitely on our side.   We are going exploring down there on Sunday.

Yeah, I’m really in the same boat as you.  I worked in AV for about a year and a half before our office moved to the lake forest/foothill border, and Aliso was really nice.

The shopping centers were very well maintained, there were a lot of good restaurants, and generally it was a pretty pleasant place to be.  The weather was pretty good too.  Obviously, nothing beats Irvine in terms of overall asthetics (there is some FUGLY architecture in some of the Aliso neighborhoods) and also in convenience with each village having their own shopping center.  I think aliso comes closer then many of the other cities though.

I do see what bk meant in his analysis, but currently it seems like a clear #2 OC city to Irvine’s #1.  Ladera is nice too, but Aliso seems a lot quicker to everything else.

Its going to be a tough decision…

Update: 2 Riqueza back to the bank today for $462,636. NTS amount was more than $600,000.

It doesn’t appears to me that 2000sf+ places in AV are getting rolled back faster or further than Irvine necessarily.  AV was cheaper in 2004 so its 2004 pricing now still provides more bang for the buck vs. Irvine.

Updated AV Shiller

Ooooo—- I figured out the double thanks thing, too.

Spent Saturday down in AV, checking out homes and trying to get a feel for the community.  From the homes standpoint, we really liked the Westridge neighborhood.  Irvine123 described it well in his post at the top of this thread.  Looks like they have a new elementary in that neighborhood (Canyon Vista) which has an API of 890.  Very close to Irvine scores, not that I think the API score is the only factor when assessing a school. We also really like the neighborhoods down Canyon Vistas from Pacific Park.  Not sure what to call that area, but here is a listing from there:

Silkwood

Anybody know this neighborhood is called?  Felt to us like a hillside Northwood Pointe—- with a LOT lower prices. 

Also toured the new Shea community Pasadera.  Nice and great floorplans, but way too high taxes.  Pricing on Sunday was: Plan 1: $709k; Plan 2: $725k; Plan 3: $778k.  Don and Darren at the Pasadera sales office said they get a LOT of foot traffic through that community from current Irvine residents.

As far as the community as a whole, we liked what we saw.  Everwhere there were people out in about.  The faces around AV seem to be about a 1 for 1 flip from Irvine, where more people in AV look like Mr. blond CK, and in Irvine more look like Ms. Asian CK.  They were holding a big time bike race in AV on Saturday which we watched for a while, that was cool.  Also caught a movie and dinner at the Town Center and spent some time in the B&N;.  Kids and families everywhere, it is definitely a family oriented place.  Our daughter is an ice skater, so having the AV Ice Palace right there is an added plus.

Overall, we could definitely see ourselves there.  We’ve go some thinking to do.

I’m liking Aliso more and more, the only thing that is concerning me is the resale value at this point.  I think the bottom will be lower then the bottom in Irvine for a variety of factors (less convenient, less prestigious, schools arn’t quite as good).  The condo market seems to have dropped a lot faster then the Irvine condo market though, as I’m seeing properties at 2004 and maybe even 2003 rollbacks. 

What do you guys think the bottom in aliso will look like?  Does anyone have any familiarity with the rental market in aliso, as I am planning on living in a place for a while then renting it out eventually.

Sheesh, Silkwood doesn’t even have slab granite ?  For that price, it should. (I like the house CK)

Pasadera unit now on MLS…

wow, $246/sf

how low will it go?

ipoplaya - 18 July 2008 04:44 PM

Pasadera unit now on MLS…

Those pictures are of one of the models, the actual unit for sale (on Golf Dr.) is an entirely different elevation (Santa Barbara elevation, the one pictured is Italiante.)

freedomCM - 18 July 2008 05:24 PM

wow, $246/sf

how low will it go?

Personally, I think you should get $100K off for every window that looks into your master bathroom.

Does anybody know if where are any Industrial Business Parks like the Irvine Spectrum in Aliso Viejo? The cheapest rates I have found so far in Irvine are the office warehouses off of Hammond at 1.3 triple net all inclusive? If industrial spaces do exist in AV, By what percentage are the office warehouse spaces in Aliso Viejo cheaper than Irvine? Any information would be appreciated.

Panda

Try Lake Forrest, as well.

CK - 14 July 2008 12:18 PM

Spent Saturday down in AV, checking out homes and trying to get a feel for the community.  From the homes standpoint, we really liked the Westridge neighborhood.  Irvine123 described it well in his post at the top of this thread.  Looks like they have a new elementary in that neighborhood (Canyon Vista) which has an API of 890.  Very close to Irvine scores, not that I think the API score is the only factor when assessing a school. We also really like the neighborhoods down Canyon Vistas from Pacific Park.  Not sure what to call that area, but here is a listing from there:

Silkwood

Anybody know this neighborhood is called?  Felt to us like a hillside Northwood Pointe—- with a LOT lower prices. 

Also toured the new Shea community Pasadera.  Nice and great floorplans, but way too high taxes.  Pricing on Sunday was: Plan 1: $709k; Plan 2: $725k; Plan 3: $778k.  Don and Darren at the Pasadera sales office said they get a LOT of foot traffic through that community from current Irvine residents.

As far as the community as a whole, we liked what we saw.  Everwhere there were people out in about.  The faces around AV seem to be about a 1 for 1 flip from Irvine, where more people in AV look like Mr. blond CK, and in Irvine more look like Ms. Asian CK.  They were holding a big time bike race in AV on Saturday which we watched for a while, that was cool.  Also caught a movie and dinner at the Town Center and spent some time in the B&N;.  Kids and families everywhere, it is definitely a family oriented place.  Our daughter is an ice skater, so having the AV Ice Palace right there is an added plus.

Overall, we could definitely see ourselves there.  We’ve go some thinking to do.

Er-rahhhhh,

Could you explain what do you mean by Mr blond CK and Ms Asian CK ?

I’m new to this site but I’ve been reading a lot of theads and this racial theme of Whites not wanting to live in a neighborhood with Mexicans and Whites not wanting to live in a neighborhood with Asians seems to pop up a bit from other posters as well.