We are looking in Aliso Viejo as well. I lived there before moving to where we are now and I loved the area. The perks are the lower prices and the nice (but cookie cutter) neighborhoods. One of the major drawbacks, though, is the limited access to freeways. The 73 is great, but it can add up and get expensive. Still, it’s a very enticing area because you get a little more bang for your buck.

Limited access to freeways I guess depends on exactly where you need to go. I find the access is actually good if you’re looking to get to Irvine, because you can take the 133 to the 405 or 5.

As I said before, expect houses to be packed in, and expect to pay mello roos. If you live in Laguna Hills or Laguna Niguel you will most likely not be paying those extra taxes.

I visited Pasadera today….it’s the smaller homes on the skinny lots. They have 4 completed homes up for sale. BUT!  They have 22 Pasadera houses in construction!  22!  Looks like 11 will be finished in 3 months and the other 11 ready in 6 months.  Basically doubling Pasadera.  Why are they building 22 when they have 4 still left to sell?  The only thing I can think of is that they are about to reduce the prices.

Here’s the prices (April 29th prices):
Plan 1: 695k
Plan 2: 718k
Plan 3: 760k

The HOA monthly fees are about 180 on build out which includes the AV park fee and the country club.  Not too bad.  Tax rate is 1.14%. Mello Roos = didn’t want to say on paper lol

norcal_to_socal - 27 November 2007 12:48 PM

Anyone have any thoughts on Pasadera at Glenwood?  It’s a new construction on the golf course in AV.  The prices are around $850k - 950k for house between 2700 - 3100 sqft.   The HOA is around $170/month  with a ~1.7% property tax (including Mello Roos). I thought the floorplans were actually pretty nice (at least the plan 2).

 

www.sheahomes.com/main.cfm

 

After watching the Irvine market for the last 6 months, I’m starting to wonder if I should consider this option, as opposed to continuing to look in Irvine.

 

 

 

 

Okay this answers the Mela Roos question…and that’s a nice drop in prices…same as Irvine.

150-200k drop! And going down!

Now to think of it. 11 of those new units are facing the main drag;  Golf St.  Which is bad bad bad news. 
The AV pool is going in on the end of road. Hundreds of SUVs will be blasting right in front of your house. Like a Orange County Housewife Paris-Dakar Rally!!
Hopefully, they will install speed bumps of some sort.  I can see kids getting ran over.

“Like a Orange County Housewife Paris-Dakar Rally!!“

Awesome!! ROFLMAO!!!!!

CM_Dude - 04 May 2008 09:08 AM

“Like a Orange County Housewife Paris-Dakar Rally!!“

Awesome!! ROFLMAO!!!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAA

I’m looking at low-end townhomes in Aliso Viejo on Moulton Pkwy between El Toro and Glenwood. How’s the area there? Under $300K seems like a deal? Any thoughts?

poorgovworker - 07 May 2008 01:44 PM

I’m looking at low-end townhomes in Aliso Viejo on Moulton Pkwy between El Toro and Glenwood. How’s the area there? Under $300K seems like a deal? Any thoughts?

Don’t know, I’ve seen a few and while the area looks ok, I’d look into Mello Roos.  What kinda monthly budget do you have in mind?
-bix

poorgovworker - 07 May 2008 01:44 PM

I’m looking at low-end townhomes in Aliso Viejo on Moulton Pkwy between El Toro and Glenwood. How’s the area there? Under $300K seems like a deal? Any thoughts?

Your getting closer every day. The units around where we used to live in Glenwood Park were going for as high as $560K at the peak. 
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=25666381
And this one has the “greenbelt view” in the back.
I think this Bank owned may finally be sold. I think they may get down to $ 300K but below that and the carnage is going to be huge for all the young families that bought in this area
in the last 8 years. Blood in the streets time.

Sale History
02/21/2008: $405,000
09/21/2005: $560,000
07/21/2000: $232,000

biscuit, can afford up to $2,500 including HOA & taxes. That’s why I’m looking at everything under $300k. There are tons of them in that area. I’m looking at 3bed/2bath.

As I have some interest in one part of Aliso Viejo, I am going to start tracking prices in 92656.  My search starts at 2000sf and above…  There are a ton in escrow now which went under contract recently so we’ll see just what kind of rollbacks that area has very soon.

I only have one property so far, but the spreadsheet can be found here.

ipoplaya - 08 May 2008 09:14 AM

As I have some interest in one part of Aliso Viejo, I am going to start tracking prices in 92656.  My search starts at 2000sf and above…  There are a ton in escrow now which went under contract recently so we’ll see just what kind of rollbacks that area has very soon.

I only have one property so far, but the spreadsheet can be found here.

The rollbacks will be severe in Aliso as a whole. A number of REOs have been hitting the market at large discounts, and it looks like there is a demand for these kinds of properties. They are still overpriced relative to fundamentals, but it looks like the knife catchers are out in force.

caliguy2699 - 08 May 2008 10:02 AM

ipoplaya - 08 May 2008 09:14 AM

As I have some interest in one part of Aliso Viejo, I am going to start tracking prices in 92656.  My search starts at 2000sf and above…  There are a ton in escrow now which went under contract recently so we’ll see just what kind of rollbacks that area has very soon.

I only have one property so far, but the spreadsheet can be found here.

The rollbacks will be severe in Aliso as a whole. A number of REOs have been hitting the market at large discounts, and it looks like there is a demand for these kinds of properties. They are still overpriced relative to fundamentals, but it looks like the knife catchers are out in force.

Holy mother of MLS.  I finally dug deeper into my AV 92656 search results.  There are 66 properties over 2000sf that popped up and 20 of them are in escrow.  Almost a third of the 2000sf + places are under contract…  Sure doesn’t sound like a prelude to big price drops.  Maybe they are all REOs that took lowball prices.  That would be cool…

More were those came from. :rofl:

ipoplaya - 08 May 2008 04:04 PM

caliguy2699 - 08 May 2008 10:02 AM

ipoplaya - 08 May 2008 09:14 AM

As I have some interest in one part of Aliso Viejo, I am going to start tracking prices in 92656.  My search starts at 2000sf and above…  There are a ton in escrow now which went under contract recently so we’ll see just what kind of rollbacks that area has very soon.

I only have one property so far, but the spreadsheet can be found here.

The rollbacks will be severe in Aliso as a whole. A number of REOs have been hitting the market at large discounts, and it looks like there is a demand for these kinds of properties. They are still overpriced relative to fundamentals, but it looks like the knife catchers are out in force.

Holy mother of MLS.  I finally dug deeper into my AV 92656 search results.  There are 66 properties over 2000sf that popped up and 20 of them are in escrow.  Almost a third of the 2000sf + places are under contract…  Sure doesn’t sound like a prelude to big price drops.  Maybe they are all REOs that took lowball prices.  That would be cool…

That could be it. There is no way that much demand materialized out of thin air. Prices have come down a lot over there and judging by the foreclosures in the pipeline, there is no end in sight.

ipoplaya - 08 May 2008 04:04 PM

caliguy2699 - 08 May 2008 10:02 AM

ipoplaya - 08 May 2008 09:14 AM

As I have some interest in one part of Aliso Viejo, I am going to start tracking prices in 92656.  My search starts at 2000sf and above…  There are a ton in escrow now which went under contract recently so we’ll see just what kind of rollbacks that area has very soon.

I only have one property so far, but the spreadsheet can be found here.

The rollbacks will be severe in Aliso as a whole. A number of REOs have been hitting the market at large discounts, and it looks like there is a demand for these kinds of properties. They are still overpriced relative to fundamentals, but it looks like the knife catchers are out in force.

Holy mother of MLS.  I finally dug deeper into my AV 92656 search results.  There are 66 properties over 2000sf that popped up and 20 of them are in escrow.  Almost a third of the 2000sf + places are under contract…  Sure doesn’t sound like a prelude to big price drops.  Maybe they are all REOs that took lowball prices.  That would be cool…

sorry- a little help for a newbie… We’re buying new- so I assume we are considered “under contract”.  Are you saying 1/3 are under contract AND 20 are in escrow?

waiting-2-move - 08 May 2008 08:44 PM

ipoplaya - 08 May 2008 04:04 PM

caliguy2699 - 08 May 2008 10:02 AM

ipoplaya - 08 May 2008 09:14 AM

As I have some interest in one part of Aliso Viejo, I am going to start tracking prices in 92656.  My search starts at 2000sf and above…  There are a ton in escrow now which went under contract recently so we’ll see just what kind of rollbacks that area has very soon.

I only have one property so far, but the spreadsheet can be found here.

The rollbacks will be severe in Aliso as a whole. A number of REOs have been hitting the market at large discounts, and it looks like there is a demand for these kinds of properties. They are still overpriced relative to fundamentals, but it looks like the knife catchers are out in force.

Holy mother of MLS.  I finally dug deeper into my AV 92656 search results.  There are 66 properties over 2000sf that popped up and 20 of them are in escrow.  Almost a third of the 2000sf + places are under contract…  Sure doesn’t sound like a prelude to big price drops.  Maybe they are all REOs that took lowball prices.  That would be cool…

sorry- a little help for a newbie… We’re buying new- so I assume we are considered “under contract”.  Are you saying 1/3 are under contract AND 20 are in escrow?

MLS does not list new home escrows.  There are 65 2000+ sf homes listed in MLS for zip code 92656 and at least 19 of them are in escrow right now.  I think more than 10 have gone into escrow over the past month…  That is a whole lot of buying activity for an area that had been stagnating in terms of sales volume.

Or in other terms, the available inventory of 2000+ sf homes in AV appears to be headed down and quickly.

Holy crap, I never thought there would be a rundown neighborhood in Aliso Viejo. I went to go check out the townhomes on Moulton & Calle Cortez. I guess, you really do get what you pay for. I was shocked to say the least. Wow! I guess I should have asked you guys about this particular tract before I went.

Added another closing price for AV:

AV CS Index

Sample size is small, but so far prices in AV aren’t trailing Irvine by much in terms of depth of rollback.

sorry to be naieve, lazy or clueless (or all 3)- but ipoplaya from what I’ve read about the Case-Shiller index I don’t know how one could calculate it for one specific property.  Can you point me to somewhere that explains how you calculate these indices for specific home/transactios?  In return I promise to leave you alone for a while… (-:

IPO - I started tracking some closings in Aliso (smaller properties than the ones you’re looking at). The median CS value puts pricing at around April 2004 levels right now.

By contrast, Laguna Niguel was closer to June 2004.

waiting-2-move - 15 May 2008 01:55 PM

sorry to be naieve, lazy or clueless (or all 3)- but ipoplaya from what I’ve read about the Case-Shiller index I don’t know how one could calculate it for one specific property.  Can you point me to somewhere that explains how you calculate these indices for specific home/transactios?  In return I promise to leave you alone for a while… (-:

Waiting - Here is how I have been doing it: (Latest sales price/previous sales price) * old CS value. That will give you the new CS value.

To get the old CS value, look it up on this chart from IPO. The value you use is for the LA market from the month and year the previous sale took place.

waiting-2-move - 15 May 2008 01:55 PM

sorry to be naieve, lazy or clueless (or all 3)- but ipoplaya from what I’ve read about the Case-Shiller index I don’t know how one could calculate it for one specific property.  Can you point me to somewhere that explains how you calculate these indices for specific home/transactios?  In return I promise to leave you alone for a while… (-:

Case-Shiller Methodology

I am trying to derive a current month index value off identified sales pairs, i.e. a current month sale with its previous sale information, but don’t use all the facets/calculations that CS does.  That’s why I call it IPO-Shiller because it ain’t really Case-Siller!

Basic CS methodology, which is using paired transactions across time on the same home to derive overall changes to the index, is what I am applying in a simple fashion.  I of course don’t do any weighting or three-month averaging, but the approach is fundamentally the same as the CS methodology…

wow, I read the CS method, and I think I will stick with Caliguy’s.

Is this what you do too, IPO?  Or do you do some weighting?