Hey caliguy, I think you’ll appreciate this:
www.ipoplaya.com/ocmoinv.pdf

Nice…it will be interesting to see where things are a year from now and whether it follows the same general directions it did last year.

“more than 88% of the 330 housing markets surveyed showed price declines”

These twelve words are the only part of this article that actually matter.

EU Banks on U.S. to Rebound From Slowdown, Buoy Global Growth
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avmrsZBeT6Ik&refer=home
March 14 (Bloomberg)—European Union leaders are counting on the slowing U.S. economy to rebound quickly, helping Europe avert a recession, Luxembourg Prime and Finance Minister [url=“http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jean-
Claude+Juncker&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1"delay=“50"width=“110"bgcolor=”#ddedd9"f ]Jean- Claude Juncker[/url] said.
The U.S. has ``a strong economy and won’t continue its downward slope for all eternity, so in Europe we don’t face the risk of a recession,’’ Juncker told reporters early today after the first session of an EU summit in Brussels.

News Flash... Sound the Trumpets… Ring the Bells…. After 14 months of  "sitting on the fence", local Orange County CA home Buyers are now starting to jump of that fence and preview homes for sale, make purchase offers and place homes under contract (in escrow).   This has been our personal experience and the experience of many other Realtors we have talked with in recent weeks.  As additional evidence, traffic from our websites has increased dramatically in the past 3 weeks, and our Months of Inventory  Market Statistics graphs has shown a marked decrease in the months of inventory.

OOps….my bad…this is from last February. Sound familiar though?

Playing the Housing Slump: Is It Time to Make Your Move?
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104629/Playing-the-Housing-Slump:-Is-It-Time-to-Make-Your-Move?

Stocks Churn, Housing Steadies
http://www.forbes.com/home/personalfinance/2008/03/18/tyco-qualcom-schwab-pf-etf-in_tt_0318trimtabs_inl.html
...the overhang of distressed homes could clear up in the next few months. Price declines of 30% to 40% for foreclosed homes seem to have started the process, and lenders seem to be biting the bullet and clearing out their inventories. Based on recent trends in some of the worst California housing markets, we expect the next big move in the housing market to be up, not down.
Excerpted from the current issue of Trimtabs Weekly Liquidity Review. Charles Biderman is founder and CEO of TrimTabs. For more analysis and more detailed market liquidity data, visit TrimTabs.com.
http://www.trimtabs.com/site/team.php
After much of the REIT industry went bust, Mr. Biderman became a successful real estate entrepreneur, putting together various deals in Tennessee and New Jersey. His first deals in the mid-1970s were the purchases of 1,000 apartments, six shopping centers, and two office buildings from REITs and banks. Although he predicted the real estate market would collapse in 1988, he did not anticipate that no liquidity would be available for development. This miscalculation forced him into personal bankruptcy and taught him the distinction between value and price: value is the intrinsic worth of an asset, while price is the amount of money that a buyer agrees to pay a seller for an asset.
...
Mr. Biderman is interviewed regularly on CNBC and Bloomberg and is quoted frequently in the financial media, including Barron’s, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and Investor’s Business Daily. He is the author of TrimTabs Investing: Using Liquidity Theory to Beat the Stock Market (John Wiley & Sons, 2005). He holds a BA from Brooklyn College and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
http://www.trimtabs.com/site/liquidity.php
TrimTabs Liquidity Theory
"Price is a function of liquidity and has nothing to do with value."

 
Americans confident in 2009 turnaround
A majority believe the economy will be in good shape a year from now, but remain wary about some prospects, according to a survey.
 
<a href=“http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/21/news/economy/cnn_poll/index.htm?postversi>http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/21/news/economy/cnn_poll/index.htm?postversi>
 
A national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that 60% of respondents think economic conditions in the United States will be "good" next year, as opposed to the 75% who think the economic situation is "poor" now.
…
Of the more than 1,000 American adults surveyed in the poll, conducted March 14-16, 83% said they are "confident" that they will be able to maintain their standards of living next year, and 85% are "confident" they will keep their jobs over the next six months.
Americans also showed faith that they would be able to pay off their future debts, with 90% of respondents demonstrating confidence they would be able to meet their monthly mortgage payments for the duration of the mortgage.
Nearly as many Americans - 83% - said they could pay off college loans, car payments, and credit cards in the future. The average amount of credit card debt of those polled was $4,000.
…
But Americans are less optimistic about their long-term financial situation. Only 23% felt "very confident" about paying for their children to attend their choice of college.
Furthermore, only 29% said they were "very confident" about saving enough money to live comfortably when they retire, and just 44% believe they will be able to retire when they want to. According to the poll, 58% want to retire sometime in their 60s.
Since respondents were uncertain about their long-term prospects, only 34% said they were "very confident" about maintaining their standard of living over the next 10 years, as opposed to 45% who said the same about next year.

Ok, things are looking a little bullish, inventory wise in OC.  Can anyone explain away why it’s not time to buy now? 

 O.C. home supply at 11-month low

  http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/03/24/oc-home-supply-at-11-month-low/
  Bigger loan limits help 75% of O.C. home inventory
 http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/category/distressed-sales/

Realtors think ‘08 is bottom for Calif. sales
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/03/24/realtors-think-08-is-bottom-for-calif-sales/

I find it interesting that even when there is no reason for optimism, some will proclaim the bottom is near.

IR - I’m not surprised in the least. These are the same types who were calling a bottom months and months ago because conditions had gotten as bad as they did in the last downturn, so they figured it couldn’t get any worse and "had" to improve.

Isn’t there a quote that goes something like, "It’s hard to explain something to a man who’s job depends on him not understanding it?"

For the last 7 years, that’s been the POTUS.

You know Troop, I’m really tired of you blaming everything on Bush.  Don’t know you know he only has control over so much, and much of the things he has control over are not the things about which you complain.

Yeah, Troop, it’s really annoying. It’s not like Bush has the power to thwart the Congress and the U.S. Constitution…at least not now:

Come on down to South Park ... it’s different here (although Eric Cartman as a neighbor is an interesting thought…)
http://www.greatfallstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080323/BUSINESS/803230305
South Park
Bob Murray Construction built the Forrest Glen condos on Central Avenue at 32nd Street. Now he’s working on the South Park condos.
The South Park condos are in their first phase of development, which includes 20 units. Ten of those have already been built and sold, Murray said.
South Park includes two more phases, which could bring the number of units to 75, the same size as the Forest Glen condo complex.
The condos range in price from about $200,000 to $300,000.
When Murray started building, he didn’t have time to set up an office at the site or get brochures.
"We were just snowed with customers," he said.

From Lansner’s blog, a real estate agent said:

"Yes, for first time buyers it is especially a perfect time to go home shopping. Rents & leases will only be going up and up and up so hand on to your wallets renters! In a $2200, 3 bedroom, 2 bath 12 month lease in Orange County adds up to $26,400 cash. That’s a lot of down payment savings money and I’m using a conservative number. As an agent who does leases regularly, this is close to what your mortgage payment on a home could be with the current prices. Home sales are lower than ever, and buyers are waiting around for what? Paying high rents wasting their hard earned money when they could buy and live in their own homes, paint the walls any color they like with out worrying about getting kicked out because their 16 year old son’s band plays loud music in the garage on Saturdays. Why waste your money giving it to someone else? In 5 to 8 years the prices will be back to what you paid today, or higher. You are in a great position to gain equity when ever you buy, especially now, as long as you don’t plan on Flipping your home in a year or two. History shows us that eventually prices come back up. You get a tax deduction on your home that you don’t get when you lease or rent that will give you more income I your pocket. There is really no good reason not to buy today. Who is going to promise the buyers that the interest payment will still be low, or that foreign investors won’t cause the prices to stabilize, or go up in the next couple years?

Renee"

Smacks of desperation and fear-mongering. I hope nobody gets duped into believing it without first running the numbers and checking the facts themselves.

.

Lansner’s blog. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. LOL, that was a nice early 2006 time warp.

http://www.queercents.com/2008/03/26/citibank-freezes-home-equity-lines-of-credit-helocs/

I saw that too, Anon.  Feel entitled much?
I also didn’t know that by residing in Newport it was olly olly oxen, free, free, free from the vagaries of life.

.

Eva  - entitled to what? 

Anon - the comment was not at you, but commenting on the woman in the article as being entitled to home value, a loan, etc.
Sorry that I didn’t make that more clear.