Perhaps Greenspan’s referring to the new home construction bottom?  Not the house price bottom?
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/04/when-will-housing-market-bottom.html

I have pretty much lost interest in what  Greenspan has to say.  I think he has kind of reached a "crazy Uncle" status.  You know, the guy that comes over for Thanksgiving, drinks too much and starts making outrageous claims like he invented the question mark. 

Per Greenspan - honestly, all I care about is why people say what they say (ie. what logic they are using), not who said it.  If Yun said some bullish things, yet they all made sense to me, then I’d believe it.  Conversely, if Schiller said something, but I didn’t believe it made sense, then I wouldn’t believe it.  I keep posting the bullish POV’s here, so we can all keep an ear open to see if anything they say makes sense, so we don’t miss the upturn by always listening to bears.
Housing Market Gives Hints of a Thaw
[url=“http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/26/business/yourmoney/26mortgage.html?em&ex=1201582800&en=0eaa68902ac482e2&ei=5087
“]http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/26/business/yourmoney/26mortgage.html?em&ex=1201582800&en=0eaa68902ac482e2&ei=5087
[/url]

Here’s a translation of what Greenspan said:
"If I had a magic wand and could vaporize 300K in in inventory units, we could stablize the market"
Well, DUH.  Don’t diss Alan.

Ben at the wheel….

Front of House - illustration by Rod Lord

What’s that bulldozer doing in front of my house?

O.C. home deals up 18% in 4 weeks
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/01/28/oc-home-deals-up-18-in-4-weeks/

Ah, nothing like a deceptive headline (blame the columnist on this one, not the copy editor since it’s a blog). If you read on you see that the number of homes in escrow is still 37% below last year.

But reasonable people expected a bounce!
The volumes are unsustainablly low.  Somebody has to sell in any given market, and somebody has to buy.
Job change, death, divorce…..........that sort of "has to…........" motovation.

Why does someone have to buy now?  It is as logical as when people kept saying that prices will not come down and that they are not make any more land.  The only reason why you had a run up like we did is because people were basically paying rent to live in a house.  Who would not want that deal?   As pointed by IR in the blog and the realtor in the 60 minutes report, people basically got to live in a house for two years and even got some cash out before walking away from their house.  It is sweet deal. 
Yes, there will always be buyers but the problem is there are not enough of them to keep the prices high.  I am sure that there were people buying houses during the Great Depression but that did not mean that it was a good time. 
 

Trust me, somebody "has to" buy out there.  Not has to in the sense like we all have to have air or we’ll die, but there are situations.  I’m not saying it’s smart.  Hardly any of them are first time buyers.  But I’m saying that there is a floor on absolute volume.
Truthiness spammed Lassner’s blog the other day over and over with:

"And yet pepole keep buying."
There is truth in those words - to a certain extent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBahn5eH_8cI&refer=home
Russo’s Proposals
About $550 billion of subprime loans will reset before 2009, Russo said. Most of those borrowers will have no option except to walk away from their properties because the drop in home prices and an increase in lending standards will prevent them from refinancing or selling, he said.
Russo, in the paper originally written for the Group of Thirty, a research group led by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, proposes giving government-backed loans to homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages, whether prime or subprime, in danger of default. He also supports a tax credit for people who buy homes in 2008 that would roughly triple the current tax benefits given to mortgage holders.
In addition, the Federal Reserve needs to cut its benchmark rate to 2 percent, reduce the discount rate to match it, and ``broaden access’’ to the discount window where banks get government-subsidized temporary loans, he said. The Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate to 3 percent on Jan. 30, the second cut in nine days.

Does that make anyone else irate?  The fact that these companies and banks who *Created* the boom, are now asking the government to help them.  There was no unforseen disaster, this was all their fault.

In their hunger for profits, they leveraged too much, lowered standards too much, and won’t take responsibility for it.  The government shouldn’t be helping wallstreet, it should be punishing it.

There isn’t enough money in the world to fix all the boo-boos.
The amounts for various bail outs mentioned are between one and 2 orders of magnitude less than what would be necessary to really do something.

“Does that make anyone else irate? The fact that these companies and banks who *Created* the boom, are now asking the government to help them. There was no unforseen disaster, this was all their fault.”

Nope, not a bit.  Why would the Fed and the federal government do anything different now?

I am betting, literally betting, on the Fed and the federal government behaving exactly like it always does, which is to protect the large investment bankers.  Maybe someone will begin to understand, the purpose of the federal reserve is to confiscate the wealth of the citizenry and put it the hands of the ruling elite.

Don’t get mad.  Get rich.

Got gold?

Geez… more Ben Steinery from Greenspan.

Amusing reading from today’s Register…

Now’s not the time to stop building

More people will live here in the future, and they will need housing

By Kristine Thalman

CEO, BUILDING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION, ORANGE COUNTY CHAPTER

California will gain 7 million to 11 million new residents by 2025, increasing the state’s population from 37 million today to as many as 48 million. This surge is due to natural increases (the excess of births over deaths) and immigration, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.

It is naive and irresponsible to not plan for our incoming population. The threat of anti-growth policies often fueled by NIMBYs (not in my back yard) or environmental zealots may prove to be the greatest hazard to homeownership in Southern California. Ironically, most of the NIMBYs and no-growth activists often own homes in recently developed communities that might be nearly identical to those they seek to prevent elsewhere.

Developers and residential homebuilders are consistently working with local and state government to provide the most efficient, environmentally sensitive, safe and aesthetically pleasing homes possible, and it isn’t easy. ..."

Existing-Home Sales to Hold in Narrow Range, then Begin Upward Trend

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/pshi_feb08_homesalesholdinnarrowrange.html

From Lansner’s blog:

"As I’ve commented many times before on these blogs. The public needs to focus on what’s selling, not what’s listed. I’ve said over and over again that the media is always late with the news. People in the industry have known that were at 2004 levels for the last 30 days, but the naysayers just keep waiting. Thank goodness it’s finally in print ! People are getting great buys right now and if you’re buying for the long term, buy what you like, lock in the low rates and enjoy your life! Move-ups, take advantage of rolling your capital gains before the Democrats revoke it in 2010 when it comes up for renewal! Investors, the bottom is still 12-18 months off, all indicators show we’ll land around 2003 prices, that’s another 15% from where we are now."

So, they’re admitting they see another 15% drop from where we are now. And the reason to rush out and buy is…?

Let me guess.  A Realtard (TM) posted that.

Trooper
 
You missed my question on the other thread.

There are Realtors and there are Realtards….kinda like good cop, bad cop….

Trooper - you would be correct with your guess.

The Boy Who Cried Bottom
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/02/over-weekend-jim-realtor-pointed-out.html

Trooper

True!!  All professions have some good and some bad.

In light of “full disclosure” I want to go on record that I am no longer a Realtor TM since I did not renew my membership for 2008. I am not a fan of NAR or CAR.

I am a broker but don’t need to belong since I now only work with a partner with previous clients or do my own deals. Saved a bunch of money in dues.

May have to rejoin in AZ later this year but prefer not to.

Still have full SOCAL MLS acess so it is best of both worlds.

Enjoy

xsocal - IMO you got out just in time ...the NAR president made a fool of himself (again probably) recently on CNBC