Thanks.
I’m glad my years of snarkiness honed on the twoplustwo.com fourms are good for something .

Why Graph you are a mean mean person and are single handedly bringing down the housing industry.  Even here in Florida—it’s due to you Lennar isn’t selling its houses.
Aren’t you ashamed.
Is truthi, um, how to put this, ritght in the ole cabeza?

Actually, one could argue that the faster people come around to an  IHB point of view, the faster the housing prices drop.  The faster the prices drop, the faster homeowners get foreclosed on or sell.  The faster they have to go to little rental apartments that don’t allow pets.  The faster the animal shelters fill up.  And, ulimately, the more animals that will get put down (who are the truly innocent victims of this whole meltdown).

Save the pets, euthanize the owners

I have really been enjoying reading Truthiness’s comments. She (I read it is a she) has completely lost all grip on reality. She is a case study in the stages of grief. Watching her move between anger, denial and bargaining is amazing to watch. If someone knows who it is, I hope they are referring her to proper psychological help.

I wish he/she would share more facts instead of just throw insults and names around, because it is nice to see another POV represented. The only real fact I know about Truthi is they bought in 2003.

what a mind job.

Truthi’s comments are more bullshit than bullish. I am starting to conclude that the only bullish outlook right now is denial.

I like Xsocal Land Merchant’s take.  Realistic, long term bullish, apparent prior experience.  Positive communication style.
I also consider myself bullish on real estate, long tem, as a method to provide stability to my familiy and provide inflation hedge income from investment properties with likely tax advantages.
In the short term, for the vast majority of properties, I can’t look past the huge disparity between owing costs verus equivalent rental costs.  
I also think serious bears should be looking this winter.  If you’re looking for a unique property, now is a good time, there’s few transactions, buyers are very finicky and plenty of inventory.  If you have good credit, you can still good loan terms.  All this leads to one thing, finding a realistic seller with the house you want at the price you want.   Price is the key though, everybody’s price point will differ, but future uncertainity, future hassle, all create trade-offs which can shift rental equivalence for owning sooner rather than later.  

I agree that Truthi is a she.  In my line of work, we call people like her 5150. FindLaw for Legal Professionals - Case Law, Federal and State Resources, Forms, and Code

Land ho! Now’s the time to buy
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/LandHoNowsTheTimeToBuy.aspx?page=1

If you act quickly, you can get into companies with hard real-estate assets before the coming herd of overseas investors does. Land also offers some protection against a bigger market downturn.

RE "I am starting to conclude that the only bullish outlook right now is denial."
Or ignorance.  I’ve run into some innocents lately that appear to never watch the news.  It’s like 20% off?  Wow, that’s like a bargain, I should buy it.  Without any further thoughts at all, and a void of missing information/quesitons.

Please retract the invitation.  The Bull in Residence at IHB needs to be a savvy critical thinker with good data.  That person has a hard time with cohesive (my OPINION; I don’t want to get sued for libel).

“I also think serious bears should be looking this winter.  If you’re looking for a unique property, now is a good time, there’s few transactions, buyers are very finicky and plenty of inventory.  If you have good credit, you can still good loan terms.  All this leads to one thing, finding a realistic seller with the house you want at the price you want.  Price is the key though, everybody’s price point will differ, but future uncertainity, future hassle, all create trade-offs which can shift rental equivalence for owning sooner rather than later.  “
Or later rather than sooner.  I think the only reason a serious bear should be looking this winter is if the bear wants to get his paw sliced by a falling knife.  A unique property?  What is a unique property?  Is it a property that I can pay twice as much for right now as I can a few years from now?  That is not unique.  That is common.
NSR - Are you an re agent?

A unique property is one you fall in love with.  At a price you can afford.  If you love something and can afford it, what’s the problem?
(crickets)
I have a different attitude, but to ignore that there are buyers out there now who can qualify and decide that they can afford a home isn’t smart.  There just aren’t very many right now.  Good times.
 

I just adore how Truthi has decided that Lansner’s blog is hers.  As someone who has long moderated BBs and comment threads recently said (emphasis added):

"The ‘come and see the violence inherent in the system, help help I’m being repressed’ crew are less of a puzzle than they initially seem. Their own online activity tends to be dull and disruptive, <u>but they think they’re entitled to the kind of large audience for their behavior you can only get by being interesting. This is why they don’t actually want free speech. All that would give them is the freedom to call the shots on their own websites. What they really want is someone else’s audience.</u>"

That’s Truthi to a "T."  If she doesn’t like the IHB, why doesn’t she start her own blog?  Oh yeah, no would be interested.

"A unique property is one you fall in love with.  At a price you can afford.  If you love something and can afford it, what’s the problem?"
I guess it is just personal.  I fall in love with people and relationships.  My puny experience has shown that falling in love with things is spiritually defeating and tends to lessen my commitment to the important people in my life.  But, like I said, it is personal.  Maybe, not everyone has that experience.  I prefer some wood and stucco boxes to others, but they are still just wood and stucco boxes; nothing to fall in love with.
And my other small experience is what it felt like to owe more on a property than I could sell it for.  I could afford it, had some bucks in the bank, and didn’t need to sell, but I still didn’t like it.  Again, it is a personal feeling.  Maybe others could care less if they owe more on a property than it could sell for, especially after they put 20% down, and their monthly expenses for owing are twice what it would cost for them to lease the same exact property.  Maybe they don’t care.  Maybe they can "afford it".
I wonder if the folks who are not averse to falling in love with a unique property could just as easily fall in love with a unique property for lease?  And at half the price, no down payment, and no risk for equity loss?
No problem.  Just personal preference.

Eva - Please don’t respond to her demented personal attacks.   We love you here. 

NSR - Are you an re agent?
Ahem.
 
The key is price and location.  I suspect the discounts that are actually occuring in the market for completed sales are much steeper than the median or Case Shiller indicates due to lags and the nature of the reporting.  Currently 90% of the sellers are out there with wishing prices.  That leaves the remaining 10% actually competing for sales and looking attractive, relative to the wishing prices.
One thing I’d like to see, I can do it if someone can feed me the addresses, is to deconstruct a couple of Irvine zip codes, prior month sales to see what the real discount is that is occuring on the properties.  With the credit crunch, the median quickly dropped 8%+, yet like prior months and other markets such as San Diego, the median doesn’t tell the story of the quality shift.
If you strike a deal near or at rental equivalence and capture a good long term fixed rate, the deal may make as much sense and renting and waiting for bottom.  Some properties never will have a decent rental equivalence, or readily available comparable rentals.  That must be weighed in with the current market conditions, capital exposure, rent volatility and family needs.
Currently the market is flooded with unrealistic unwilling sellers with wishing prices.  When they give up the ghost of their dreams, they’ll remove themselves from the market or move their homes into the REO department unrealistic dreams.  The remaining sellers both have the capability and the desire to sell.  Sell at a steep discount and still a profit.  Sell because they want to move on. Either to a new home, new location, from married to single life, etc.
Will the market likely continue down?  Most probably.  Will you get a better capital deal, most likely.  Will you cash flow be different? Yes.  Will it be better? Maybe, maybe not.  Will there be less pressure on the willing sellers in the near future?  Maybe. 
There will be more REOs in the future, that will mitigate prices, but they won’t pressure sellers like the current inventory pressures sellers.  More importantly, REOs are often bad mojo.  And as foreclosures continue, they will become more bad mojo and the debtors that give up the ghost later rather than sooner, IMO, are more likely to be bitter and disgruntled.  In addition, the REO departments have squatted on their REO holdings for months, maybe in even year in some cases and likely a year plus by the time they get around to selling it.  Empty untended houses do not age well. 
Even in a city as safe and tidy as Irvine, squatter, vandals, and criminals will find their way to the empty REOs.  You’ve already some of it with the theft of copper pipe from the construction sites.
In the end, it comes down to price, rates, rent and your family needs.  If you look at the real sellers in the market, and not Home Builder Executive wishing prices, you see a very different market. The only problem is they are so hard to find because of the noise of sellers wanting out, needing out, but not being able to price to get out.  Personally, I’d rather have a lower price and a higher interest rate on my mortgage.  That’s not our market.  That may not be our market for a few years.  In the interim, if the price and the rate makes PITI comparable to rent and my family stability leads to a trade-off in risks.

"NSR - Are you an re agent?
Ahem."
I don’t get it.  Does ahem mean my question was too personal?  I am an Enrolled Agent and a land surveyor.  If you disclose your occupation, will you compromise your anonymity?  Or is there some other reason you do not care to identify yourself as an realtor?
"There will be more REOs in the future, that will mitigate prices, but they won’t pressure sellers like the current inventory pressures sellers"
In all likelyhood, it will pressure sellers to lower their prices further and quicker.

Oh, I misunderstood.  I took it as a slam since so many tend towards sayings like "realtard" regarding agent mistakes or any bullish position.  I’m not in RE, I’m in IT. 
In all likelyhood, it will pressure sellers to lower their prices further and quicker.
I think willing and able sellers will actually lower faster than REOs, particularly when clueless listings like today’s blog entry become the one-off again instead of the majority.  The willing sellers will be those that bought mid-80s, mid-90s and still can take $100K, $200K out of their house when sold even after slashing prices 40% or 50%.

"Oh, I misunderstood.  I took it as a slam since so many tend towards sayings like "realtard" regarding agent mistakes or any bullish position"
No, not a slam.  Your discourse sounded much like what I hear from realtors.  Sometimes I think they go to sales meetings where they are given their talking points.  I read some posters comments with their coloration in mind sometimes based on their occupational bias.
I do not for a second mind slamming a particular position or the reputation that an occupation may warrant, but I prefer not to denigrate a person.  I may needle or provoke a poster or two, but hopefully I do not make personal comments.  And very often I will question or directly oppose an opinion that is presented as fact, even if I agree with the opinion.
Personally, I find little or nothing to be bullish about as regards residential real estate, and I like real property.  I was bullish in the past, and I would guess that I will be bullish again sometime in the future.
Interesting comment about the willing sellers lowering faster than the REOs.

If you’re trying to make lender pricing on REOs make sense, stop now.  It doesn’t.
They (lenders) will (if my experence is any indicator) hold the line, pricing themselves just behind the market as it falls or just above when it levels out. 
Then they will run out of patience and just DUMP a whole bunch to somebody who can take a huge bundle of REO’s at 60 cents on the dollar.

I refuse to go anywhere near a mall from Thanksgiving to New Years.  I’m not joking.

Re "Even in a city as safe and tidy as Irvine, squatter, vandals, and criminals will find their way to the empty REOs."
I don’t really believe that.  Let’s say there are empty houses all over LA and OC.  If one wanted to take advantage of them, why go to Irvine?  Irvine is the land of a zillion cops.  Why bother with the hassle?  Why not go somewhere where no one will hassle you?  It’s like the old making sure your place is harder to break into than your neighbors.  Criminals are lazy.