OC Active/Pending Ratio Has Fallen Below 5
Posted: 13 February 2007 08:55 AM   [ Ignore ]
McMansion
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Lansner’s post: http://blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/archives/2007/02/oc_homeowners_slow_to_put_for.html
The $1MM+ market continues to suffer but ratios have fallen for everything else.
Dead-cat bounce or recovery?

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Posted: 13 February 2007 09:02 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
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Dead bounce, I don’t see too many people having the financial wherewhithall to put forth that type of money.  Especially with a VERY good possibility of instant depreciation….
There are people who want a home though and as the market goes down, they are going to probably jump into a place asap, reguardless of if they lose equity or not.  It just depends….
Anybody who read the short term change versus the long term outlook is just fooling themselves.  I forget what wallstreet calls this condition…

-bix

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Posted: 13 February 2007 09:16 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
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5 is not exactly a hot market. I’ve heard from one realtor that 3 is considered to be a pretty healthy market. This time last year it was a little over 3, and prices didn’t rise much in 2006.

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Posted: 13 February 2007 09:18 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
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I’m inclined to agree.  What’s notable is the YoY change from 06 (in Lansner’s chart).  The year is beginning with higher inventory and lower sales compared to last year.  Also, I think it’ll take a month or two for the subprime contraction to filter into the RE market data.
Fyi, ABX-HE-BBB- 06-2 recovered by about $2 today.

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