nevermind

PANDA - 02 September 2008 05:56 PM

optimusprime - 02 September 2008 05:47 PM

PANDA - 02 September 2008 05:41 PM

graphrix - 02 September 2008 03:07 PM

We don’t get oil from Iran. We boycott their goods.

We won’t attack the Saudis. Bush’s dad and the Carlyle group would not approve.

The Saudis do not produce a lot of light sweet crude, which is used for fuel. Heavy crude is used for other products like plastic. If we ever did attack it would screw China 10 times more than us. Again, we won’t attack the Saudis.

BTW, how has the dollar done the last two weeks? How did it do today?

Graph, you seem to be a very smart guy. Yes, the dollar did rally from its bottom for the past three weeks and yes, it did rally today crushing Commodities, Euros, Swiss Francs, and the London Pound. Let me ask you question? What do you believe are the true fundamentals allowing this dollar to rally? What economic factors are causing this rally in our dollar? Do believe it is happening naturally or there is some manipulation happening behind the scenes?

You have reminded me many times not to bet against the dollar. Why do believe that dollar has now finally come off the bottom and now it will rally against all commodities and other strong foreign currencies in the next 5 years?

Panda…simple question for you…do you really think the Dow will go below 10,000?

Optimus, I think so. I think that October will be a very ugly month for the U.S. stock market. I think that the U.S. stock market will be pretty flat in the next 10 years. I am betting my money on foreign markets and commodities for the long haul. We are not going to see the great 20 year stock market boom we saw in the U.S. stock market from the 1980 - 2000. I think that generally it will be flat with some major down turns. Again, if you bought the DOW at the top of 2000, you still have not made your money back today. I strongly believe in what Awgee says that we are 6 years in a major commodity boom that started about 2002.

Friendly wager than Panda…. $50.

If the Dow drops below 10,000 from now until Dec. 31, 2008….you win.  If not, then I win.

We will use the honor system and refer to this thread….you post here often and I come on here all the time, I think I registered since early 2007. Plus we have tons of IHB witnesses.

You up for the bet?

Sorry, Optimus,

I don’t bet on the short term.

Friendly wager than Panda…. $50.
If the Dow drops below 10,000 from now until Dec. 31, 2008….you win. 
If not, then I win.
We will use the honor system and refer to this thread….you post here often and I come on here all the time, I think I registered since early 2007.
Plus we have tons of IHB witnesses.
You up for the bet?

Good bet. Panda, you in?
I’m backing Optimusprime.

PANDA - 02 September 2008 06:32 PM

HAhaha!!! Are you seriously counting those as my questions? Tough crowd i tell ya.

12. What is George Bush smoking????
14. From the U.S. citizen’s butts??

Question-Head, I believe you ended your sentence with a question mark - therefore, it’s a question.
Even if you took those two questions out, you still have twenty or so questions.
And I didn’t even look at your other posts today. I only took into consideration this post.

PANDA - 02 September 2008 06:32 PM

Sorry, Optimus,

I don’t bet on the short term.

Oh, come on, Panda.

Go on, Brave Sir Robin…

I have a rant coming soon in the foreign ETF thread about the dollar and the fundamentals. The clear as day but you are blinded by emotion fundamentals kind of rant. But, I want to wait a while longer see you take a beating on betting against the dollar first. And, I will set up a private game over at Investopedia, called the Panda challenge. I will invite a few others, maybe CalGal would like to join, and awgee too. We can do updates monthly, quarterly, or every six months if you would like, and we would all have to suck it up and post the stats here.

Time to step up and see if you are the big bad bear that you say you are. You think that I am just picking on you, but what I am really trying to do is save you from losing a lot of money. I am trying to save you from having your down payment fund dwindling down from a place in Irvine to a place in Rialto. You are right, I am a smart guy, and I trying to save you from adding to the worst investment mistake thread. You invest with way, way, way, too much emotion, and emotion is the greatest evil when it comes to investing.

As a nation we are consuming and investing about 6 percent more than we are producing.
-Paul Volcker

graphrix - 02 September 2008 10:11 PM

I have a rant coming soon in the foreign ETF thread about the dollar and the fundamentals. The clear as day but you are blinded by emotion fundamentals kind of rant. But, I want to wait a while longer see you take a beating on betting against the dollar first. And, I will set up a private game over at Investopedia, called the Panda challenge. I will invite a few others, maybe CalGal would like to join, and awgee too. We can do updates monthly, quarterly, or every six months if you would like, and we would all have to suck it up and post the stats here.

Time to step up and see if you are the big bad bear that you say you are. You think that I am just picking on you, but what I am really trying to do is save you from losing a lot of money. I am trying to save you from having your down payment fund dwindling down from a place in Irvine to a place in Rialto. You are right, I am a smart guy, and I trying to save you from adding to the worst investment mistake thread. You invest with way, way, way, too much emotion, and emotion is the greatest evil when it comes to investing.

Really you don’t say?  I would have never guessed based on Panda’s posts hahaha

That’s why I want to become bullish lol

graphrix - 02 September 2008 10:11 PM

I have a rant coming soon in the foreign ETF thread about the dollar and the fundamentals. The clear as day but you are blinded by emotion fundamentals kind of rant. But, I want to wait a while longer see you take a beating on betting against the dollar first. And, I will set up a private game over at Investopedia, called the Panda challenge. I will invite a few others, maybe CalGal would like to join, and awgee too. We can do updates monthly, quarterly, or every six months if you would like, and we would all have to suck it up and post the stats here.

Time to step up and see if you are the big bad bear that you say you are. You think that I am just picking on you, but what I am really trying to do is save you from losing a lot of money. I am trying to save you from having your down payment fund dwindling down from a place in Irvine to a place in Rialto. You are right, I am a smart guy, and I trying to save you from adding to the worst investment mistake thread. You invest with way, way, way, too much emotion, and emotion is the greatest evil when it comes to investing.

I’m in.

Come on Panda, time to pony up and see if you can play with the big boys, and gal.

Graph,

I’m curious. what are you invested in? If you are such a dollar-bull you must be in either be all cash (dollars) or heavily invested in U.S. equities with no foriegn and commodity exposure? or shorting everything Panda is invested in. Am i right?

We must make this game fun. If i am heavily invested in anti-dollar investments like Euro, commodities, and foreign equities, you better be invested in mostly dollar bullish investments like the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P;and CDs in U.S. currency. Let’s let the noise settle down and see where we are both at by dec 31, 2008. One of us will be buying a small detached condo in Santa Ana, and the other a nice SFR in Irvine in 2010.

By the end of this year, everyone on the Irvine Housing Blog will know who the TRUE NUTTER is.

Interesting insight on the dollar I picked up from another blog

“James Turk - GoldMoney.com August 7, 2008

So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here’s the proof.
When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.
On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve’s custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks.
So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others. So central banks pushed in one direction and funds and traders then stepped on board. In other words, central banks ignited the fuse of a bear market rally.
“

Seems to be a good explantion for the unfounded dollar rally we have had lately. Especially since there is no fundemental reason for a dollar rally (any suggestions?).

Once foreign central banks realize that they are doing us a favor by reducing their quality of life, the floor will drop out on the dollar.

China had their banks raise their dollar reserves in order to spur some more trade.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/26/ccchina126.xml

Then mix in some Japanese and European banks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aafNFhZiOg.w

and you get a nice little dollar bounce.

upperlowerclass - 04 September 2008 09:51 PM

Interesting insight on the dollar I picked up from another blog

“James Turk - GoldMoney.com August 7, 2008

So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here’s the proof.
When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.
On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve’s custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks.
So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others. So central banks pushed in one direction and funds and traders then stepped on board. In other words, central banks ignited the fuse of a bear market rally.
“

Seems to be a good explantion for the unfounded dollar rally we have had lately. Especially since there is no fundemental reason for a dollar rally (any suggestions?).

Once foreign central banks realize that they are doing us a favor by reducing their quality of life, the floor will drop out on the dollar.

Most of this is verifiable fact except for the last statement, which is opinion.  And I would be careful on that opinion.  The CBs can continue doing whatever they think is in their best interests, even if they are wrong.

And IMO, James Turks analysis points to a very important question.  How are you measuring the dollar?

The markets measure the dollar by the Forex number, or in other words, against a basket of other currencies.

But, most folks do not trade Forex, so they may want to consider what does the value of the dollar mean to them?  For most Americans, those not trading Forex, the value of the dollar is whatever a dollar can buy them.

IMO, this is a much more relevant measure of the dollar.  If the Euro, Yen, Renminbi, etc. also buy less goods for their currencies in their own countries, it matters much less if the dollar is “strong” or “weak” relative to those currencies.

The recent “strength” in the dollar is completely based on the idea that the US economy is going to be stronger because the European economy is showing signs of weakness, and the Euro is weaker.  Less than two weeks ago, all the talking heads were saying US stocks and the thusly the US economy would stay out of a recession because the we are in a global economy and even if the US economy weakens, the European economy and the Asian economy would keep the US economy going.  Now, they are saying the US economy will be stronger because the European economy is showing weakness.

IMO, both ideas are wrong and stupid.

The relevant questions and fundamental questions are: Do you think the dollar in your pocket will be buying the same or less or more for you than it did last year?  Do you think asset deflation will cause the dollar to be valued more highly?  What do you think the response of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Dept. will be to asset deflation?  What has their response been so far?  What have they done historically?

awgee - 05 September 2008 05:30 AM

upperlowerclass - 04 September 2008 09:51 PM

Interesting insight on the dollar I picked up from another blog

“James Turk - GoldMoney.com August 7, 2008

So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here’s the proof.
When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.
On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve’s custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks.
So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others. So central banks pushed in one direction and funds and traders then stepped on board. In other words, central banks ignited the fuse of a bear market rally.
“

Seems to be a good explantion for the unfounded dollar rally we have had lately. Especially since there is no fundemental reason for a dollar rally (any suggestions?).

Once foreign central banks realize that they are doing us a favor by reducing their quality of life, the floor will drop out on the dollar.

Most of this is verifiable fact except for the last statement, which is opinion.  And I would be careful on that opinion.  The CBs can continue doing whatever they think is in their best interests, even if they are wrong.

And IMO, James Turks analysis points to a very important question.  How are you measuring the dollar?

The markets measure the dollar by the Forex number, or in other words, against a basket of other currencies.

But, most folks do not trade Forex, so they may want to consider what does the value of the dollar mean to them?  For most Americans, those not trading Forex, the value of the dollar is whatever a dollar can buy them.

IMO, this is a much more relevant measure of the dollar.  If the Euro, Yen, Renminbi, etc. also buy less goods for their currencies in their own countries, it matters much less if the dollar is “strong” or “weak” relative to those currencies.

The recent “strength” in the dollar is completely based on the idea that the US economy is going to be stronger because the European economy is showing signs of weakness, and the Euro is weaker.  Less than two weeks ago, all the talking heads were saying US stocks and the thusly the US economy would stay out of a recession because the we are in a global economy and even if the US economy weakens, the European economy and the Asian economy would keep the US economy going.  Now, they are saying the US economy will be stronger because the European economy is showing weakness.

IMO, both ideas are wrong and stupid.

The relevant questions and fundamental questions are: Do you think the dollar in your pocket will be buying the same or less or more for you than it did last year?  Do you think asset deflation will cause the dollar to be valued more highly?  What do you think the response of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Dept. will be to asset deflation?  What has their response been so far?  What have they done historically?

I certainly understand betting that foreign CBs will see the light is a risky bet. However, it has become increasingly more obvious that thier actions to prop up the dollar have been detrimental to their countries. They can’t be enjoying our inflation they are sucking up.

The answer to your question is easy, the dollar will be worth less. But where to protect that purchasing power is becoming a harder decision every day. Fundementally, gold and foreign currencies would be good bets, but there is so much manipulation in both markets. 

Gold, for example:

“Rob Kirby - Wake Up Call
August 26, 2008
For gold, 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July, and 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce. As was the case with silver, this is the largest short position ever by US banks in the data listed on the CFTC’s site. This position was put on and resulted in massive market price collapse.
END.
Kirby notes that such a short position can be only the work of a central bank, “because no public entity—bank or otherwise—has the balance sheet maneuverability in an impaired credit environment to conduct such business.
Resource Investor’s Gene Arensberg is suspicious as well, he seems convinced in his latest “Gold Gold Report” that the recent enormous shorting of gold and silver by a few banks was a market manipulation and likely a currency intervention inspired by the U.S. government.
“

So I guess the best you can do for now is hope these “powers that be” are only capable of causing pull-backs or buying opportunities for you and don’t have the power to reverse the trend. This is the boat I’m currently sitting in.

upperlowerclass - 05 September 2008 06:12 AM

awgee - 05 September 2008 05:30 AM

upperlowerclass - 04 September 2008 09:51 PM

Interesting insight on the dollar I picked up from another blog

“James Turk - GoldMoney.com August 7, 2008

So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here’s the proof.
When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.
On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve’s custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks.
So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others. So central banks pushed in one direction and funds and traders then stepped on board. In other words, central banks ignited the fuse of a bear market rally.
“

Seems to be a good explantion for the unfounded dollar rally we have had lately. Especially since there is no fundemental reason for a dollar rally (any suggestions?).

Once foreign central banks realize that they are doing us a favor by reducing their quality of life, the floor will drop out on the dollar.

Most of this is verifiable fact except for the last statement, which is opinion.  And I would be careful on that opinion.  The CBs can continue doing whatever they think is in their best interests, even if they are wrong.

And IMO, James Turks analysis points to a very important question.  How are you measuring the dollar?

The markets measure the dollar by the Forex number, or in other words, against a basket of other currencies.

But, most folks do not trade Forex, so they may want to consider what does the value of the dollar mean to them?  For most Americans, those not trading Forex, the value of the dollar is whatever a dollar can buy them.

IMO, this is a much more relevant measure of the dollar.  If the Euro, Yen, Renminbi, etc. also buy less goods for their currencies in their own countries, it matters much less if the dollar is “strong” or “weak” relative to those currencies.

The recent “strength” in the dollar is completely based on the idea that the US economy is going to be stronger because the European economy is showing signs of weakness, and the Euro is weaker.  Less than two weeks ago, all the talking heads were saying US stocks and the thusly the US economy would stay out of a recession because the we are in a global economy and even if the US economy weakens, the European economy and the Asian economy would keep the US economy going.  Now, they are saying the US economy will be stronger because the European economy is showing weakness.

IMO, both ideas are wrong and stupid.

The relevant questions and fundamental questions are: Do you think the dollar in your pocket will be buying the same or less or more for you than it did last year?  Do you think asset deflation will cause the dollar to be valued more highly?  What do you think the response of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Dept. will be to asset deflation?  What has their response been so far?  What have they done historically?

I certainly understand betting that foreign CBs will see the light is a risky bet. However, it has become increasingly more obvious that thier actions to prop up the dollar have been detrimental to their countries. They can’t be enjoying our inflation they are sucking up.

The answer to your question is easy, the dollar will be worth less. But where to protect that purchasing power is becoming a harder decision every day. Fundementally, gold and foreign currencies would be good bets, but there is so much manipulation in both markets. 

Gold, for example:

“Rob Kirby - Wake Up Call
August 26, 2008
For gold, 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July, and 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce. As was the case with silver, this is the largest short position ever by US banks in the data listed on the CFTC’s site. This position was put on and resulted in massive market price collapse.
END.
Kirby notes that such a short position can be only the work of a central bank, “because no public entity—bank or otherwise—has the balance sheet maneuverability in an impaired credit environment to conduct such business.
Resource Investor’s Gene Arensberg is suspicious as well, he seems convinced in his latest “Gold Gold Report” that the recent enormous shorting of gold and silver by a few banks was a market manipulation and likely a currency intervention inspired by the U.S. government.
“

So I guess the best you can do for now is hope these “powers that be” are only capable of causing pull-backs or buying opportunities for you and don’t have the power to reverse the trend. This is the boat I’m currently sitting in.

Upperlowerclass,

I am glad that there is some fresh blood bring up this issue on this forum as Graph and CalGal thinks that i am one Crazy Panda that has gone complete Nuts. I’ve read the articles that you posted that i agree with you where you are going with all this.

“Now we have not one, but two little Awgees” on the IHB.

Manipulation, Fraud, Corruption, and Deception is like a web where the truth will be eventually revealed at the end. I absoutely have no trust in our government and wall street. What happened to the founding fathers of our great country who built our country with integrity??? Our currency must go back to the gold standard.

The Nasdaq, DOW, and S&P is getting creamed this week. Opimus, I may take on your $50 wager by end of this month.

About two weeks ago, I found out that some crazy Fidelity broker put my Poor Mother Panda’s entire retirement money in three Fidelity Technology Funds, and I immediately liquided her entire portfolio on August 28th, 2008 as she is not even looking at her retirement money going down the drain. I told Panda’s mom, from this point forward, I will look over your retirement money. When you are turning 59 in a half in two years, you don’t mess around with technology funds.

It is time to open up that Everbank Money Market account for Mother Panda at 4.75% introductory money market account.

ULC - Where to put your money?  That is the rub, isn’t it?

I guess what occurs to me is that if the government or the banks have been manipulating the price of precious metals, how sucessful have they been?  Check out a five year chart of gold.  Since 2003, the price of gold in dollars has gone from $300 to $800.  Maybe someone or some government can manipulate the price in the short run, but it does not seem to me that they have been very sucessful in keeping the price down over the long term.  But, maybe you are seeing something I am not.

awgee - 05 September 2008 06:55 AM

ULC - Where to put your money?  That is the rub, isn’t it?

I guess what occurs to me is that if the government or the banks have been manipulating the price of precious metals, how sucessful have they been?  Check out a five year chart of gold.  Since 2003, the price of gold in dollars has gone from $300 to $800.  Maybe someone or some government can manipulate the price in the short run, but it does not seem to me that they have been very sucessful in keeping the price down over the long term.  But, maybe you are seeing something I am not.

Nope, I see the same. Short-term corrections is all they seem capable of accomplishing.