This large and lovely AV house just closed for $260 per sf - $1,005,000.

Last few closes in my spec in AV have been much deeper 2004 rollbacks…

IPO’s AV CS

ipoplaya - 24 July 2008 05:33 PM

This large and lovely AV house just closed for $260 per sf - $1,005,000.

Last few closes in my spec in AV have been much deeper 2004 rollbacks…

IPO’s AV CS

IPO of little faith…I told you prices there were still falling There are just too many funny loans out there not to…

caliguy2699 - 24 July 2008 07:18 PM

ipoplaya - 24 July 2008 05:33 PM

This large and lovely AV house just closed for $260 per sf - $1,005,000.

Last few closes in my spec in AV have been much deeper 2004 rollbacks…

IPO’s AV CS

IPO of little faith…I told you prices there were still falling There are just too many funny loans out there not to…

Fortunately for me they have stopped falling in Irvine.  Once I close escrow, I authorize prices to continue their march into 2002-2003 territory…  As a matter of fact, I implore prices to undertake a spirited and accelerated descension commencing anytime afer 7/31/08.

An investor picked up 14 Meadowpoint yesterday for $634k. Last sold for $830k in 12/04. Not sure if that was a wise investment or not.

Caliguy, are you tracking some of the foreclosures that don’t go back to the bank like this one? Kinda like round 2 of flipping gone wrong in thinking the foreclosure champ was going to get knocked out, only to come out swinging and beating the flipper down.

graphrix - 26 July 2008 11:25 AM

An investor picked up 14 Meadowpoint yesterday for $634k. Last sold for $830k in 12/04. Not sure if that was a wise investment or not.

Caliguy, are you tracking some of the foreclosures that don’t go back to the bank like this one? Kinda like round 2 of flipping gone wrong in thinking the foreclosure champ was going to get knocked out, only to come out swinging and beating the flipper down.

I think it will be a good flip.  I believe that unit is a 2800sf 4/3.  They should be able to unload it in the low $700K range for sure…

ipoplaya - 26 July 2008 11:53 AM

graphrix - 26 July 2008 11:25 AM

An investor picked up 14 Meadowpoint yesterday for $634k. Last sold for $830k in 12/04. Not sure if that was a wise investment or not.

Caliguy, are you tracking some of the foreclosures that don’t go back to the bank like this one? Kinda like round 2 of flipping gone wrong in thinking the foreclosure champ was going to get knocked out, only to come out swinging and beating the flipper down.

I think it will be a good flip.  I believe that unit is a 2800sf 4/3.  They should be able to unload it in the low $700K range for sure…

1 Thornbird is similar in specs, has a pool, and sold for $710k nearly 4 months ago.  I doubt it.

I thought CK might appreciate that 4 Berkshire went back to the bank today for $576k. It sold for $745k three years ago.

graphrix - 07 August 2008 08:26 PM

I thought CK might appreciate that 4 Berkshire went back to the bank today for $576k. It sold for $745k three years ago.

Nice, thanks Graph. I’m starting to wonder if I am going to have to wait much past January 1, 2009 to get what I want for my price. Won’t be the bottom (probably by a long shot), but I’m not going anywhere for a long while…knock on wood. Things are looking promising, and are not even out of the summer yet. 

I wonder how the people across the street with the Escalade and Porsche feel about living across from the bank?  Man, I love streetview!

Shadax - 28 July 2008 07:16 AM

ipoplaya - 26 July 2008 11:53 AM

graphrix - 26 July 2008 11:25 AM

An investor picked up 14 Meadowpoint yesterday for $634k. Last sold for $830k in 12/04. Not sure if that was a wise investment or not.

Caliguy, are you tracking some of the foreclosures that don’t go back to the bank like this one? Kinda like round 2 of flipping gone wrong in thinking the foreclosure champ was going to get knocked out, only to come out swinging and beating the flipper down.

I think it will be a good flip.  I believe that unit is a 2800sf 4/3.  They should be able to unload it in the low $700K range for sure…

1 Thornbird is similar in specs, has a pool, and sold for $710k nearly 4 months ago.  I doubt it.

Shadax - 1 Thornbird is a 2000sf 4/2.5.  It indeed sold for $710K four months ago.  You don’t believe that an extra 800sf and a half bath increases a places price?  I think grabbing up a 2800sf 4/3 for a price $70K less than what a 2000sf place in the same neighborhood sold for recently might be a heck of a good flip opportunity.  9 Tanglewood, also in the same area, is a 2163sf home and it just closed on 8/7 for $639K, less than what Meadowpoint apparently went for at auction.

4 months was a long time (and a different market) ago.  At the time of my OP, that comp had not been available.  It’s possible that the potential flipper could profit, especially if they are or they know a broker.  I still wouldn’t put my money on it.  I guess that’s the risk/reward scenario for ya.

Updated my Aliso Viejo tracking with a couple of new closes.  A 2,340sf place on Diamond Gate, same neighborhood as Thornbird and Meadowpoint, just closed at $700K…

ipoplaya - 26 July 2008 11:53 AM

graphrix - 26 July 2008 11:25 AM

An investor picked up 14 Meadowpoint yesterday for $634k. Last sold for $830k in 12/04. Not sure if that was a wise investment or not.

Caliguy, are you tracking some of the foreclosures that don’t go back to the bank like this one? Kinda like round 2 of flipping gone wrong in thinking the foreclosure champ was going to get knocked out, only to come out swinging and beating the flipper down.

I think it will be a good flip.  I believe that unit is a 2800sf 4/3.  They should be able to unload it in the low $700K range for sure…

14 Meadowpoint made it back on to MLS after a couple of weeks from the investor purchase…

I think they will make out nicely on this flip.  Will be interesting to see just how nicely.

Interesting side note, our friends bought this exact same model, just one street over, a bit less than a year ago, and spent around $925K.  So their AV house has declined $150-175K or so over the twelve or so months (17.5%) whereas their old condo in West Irvine has only gone down around $50K (7%) over that same timeframe.  If they would have rented for just a year, which they did consider, their two kid’s college educations would have been bought and paid for…  That is what I call amazingly bad timing.

ipoplaya - 19 August 2008 04:32 PM

Interesting side note, our friends bought this exact same model, just one street over, a bit less than a year ago, and spent around $925K.  So their AV house has declined $150-175K or so over the twelve or so months (17.5%) whereas their old condo in West Irvine has only gone down around $50K (7%) over that same timeframe.  If they would have rented for just a year, which they did consider, their two kid’s college educations would have been bought and paid for…  That is what I call amazingly bad timing.

Except they may have locked in a rate 1.5-2 points lower….So if they stay in their house 30 years…. by my rough calculations its pretty much a wash.

25w100k+ - 19 August 2008 05:05 PM

ipoplaya - 19 August 2008 04:32 PM

Interesting side note, our friends bought this exact same model, just one street over, a bit less than a year ago, and spent around $925K.  So their AV house has declined $150-175K or so over the twelve or so months (17.5%) whereas their old condo in West Irvine has only gone down around $50K (7%) over that same timeframe.  If they would have rented for just a year, which they did consider, their two kid’s college educations would have been bought and paid for…  That is what I call amazingly bad timing.

Except they may have locked in a rate 1.5-2 points lower….So if they stay in their house 30 years…. by my rough calculations its pretty much a wash.

Say what?  Exsqueeze me?  Aren’t rates lower one-year later?  They did buy with a conforming ($400K) 30-year fixed loan…

ipoplaya - 19 August 2008 04:32 PM

14 Meadowpoint made it back on to MLS after a couple of weeks from the investor purchase…

I think they will make out nicely on this flip.  Will be interesting to see just how nicely.

And just like that, 14 Meadowpoint is under contract, off a $779K list price…

If that is a successful flip, congrats to the flipper.  Knife flipping is indeed a treacherous art these days, well done.

Not many folks can say they made a profitable trade on south OC RE in 2008.

ipoplaya - 22 August 2008 07:14 AM

ipoplaya - 19 August 2008 04:32 PM

14 Meadowpoint made it back on to MLS after a couple of weeks from the investor purchase…

I think they will make out nicely on this flip.  Will be interesting to see just how nicely.

And just like that, 14 Meadowpoint is under contract, off a $779K list price…

Someone indeed played that well. Props to them. Something tells me you would have to be a pretty sophisticated investor to have the cash on hand to buy a house this expensive at the foreclosure auction.

ipoplaya - 19 August 2008 05:28 PM

Say what?  Exsqueeze me?  Aren’t rates lower one-year later?  They did buy with a conforming ($400K) 30-year fixed loan…

Hrm, that chart doesn’t jive with my own personal experiences, but who knows whats up…

I remember talking to a mortgage broker about a year ago and he was saying he could get me a 5.75 30 year fixed….just called countrywide and got a quote for 7.1

This is with a 750ish FICO, 20% down, conforming.

Check out this AV market chaser…

Date     Price  
Jul 08, 2007     $625,000
Sep 11, 2007   $600,000
Oct 31, 2007   $575,000
Dec 26, 2007   $540,000
Jul 14, 2008   $515,000
Aug 14, 2008   $495,000
Source: MRMLS

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Aliso-Viejo/Unknown-92656/home/12461126

Priced_Out_IT_Guy - 29 August 2008 06:04 PM

Check out this AV market chaser…

Date     Price  
Jul 08, 2007     $625,000
Sep 11, 2007   $600,000
Oct 31, 2007   $575,000
Dec 26, 2007   $540,000
Jul 14, 2008   $515,000
Aug 14, 2008   $495,000
Source: MRMLS

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Aliso-Viejo/Unknown-92656/home/12461126

Interesting they pulled the address off the listing. IIRC that one is on Via Carisma.

I was looking at low-cost housing in South Orange County…a bunch of 3bd/2bath townhome/condos came onto the market (~$250K asking price.)  They’re close to Iglesia Park. At first I was encouraged, but, I read on another forum that this development is home of the disadvantaged…a tough working-class immigrant area where English-only speakers might feel out of place.

Are there areas in Aliso Viejo that are more affluent, but affordable (oxymoron?!?)
Just north of that area (Veeh Ranch Park in Laguna Hills), I see a bunch of 3bd condos at the $300k border, but the associatoin-fee is somewhat high ($340.)

Shadax - 28 July 2008 07:16 AM

ipoplaya - 26 July 2008 11:53 AM

graphrix - 26 July 2008 11:25 AM

An investor picked up 14 Meadowpoint yesterday for $634k. Last sold for $830k in 12/04. Not sure if that was a wise investment or not.

Caliguy, are you tracking some of the foreclosures that don’t go back to the bank like this one? Kinda like round 2 of flipping gone wrong in thinking the foreclosure champ was going to get knocked out, only to come out swinging and beating the flipper down.

I think it will be a good flip.  I believe that unit is a 2800sf 4/3.  They should be able to unload it in the low $700K range for sure...

1 Thornbird is similar in specs, has a pool, and sold for $710k nearly 4 months ago.  I doubt it.

Update on 14 Meadowpoint, it closed for $732K on 9/18.  Bought at auction in July and flipped within two months for almost $100K more.  I call that a smart investment.  They did do some work on it though so profit was probably more toward $50-60K.  I think on an annualized basis that is over 50%...