Anyone else have the vague sense (or, better, a numbers-backed sense) that we’re seeing a dead-cat bounce these days? The latest Case-Shiller numbers, the latest sales volume, I’m seeing a few places post list price increases, consumer confidence just ticked up last month,.......

The fundamentals sure ain’t there, but I’m wondering if anyone else feels this (or, better, has evidence of it or of NOT it)?

(And I’m sorry if folks have been talking about this for days/weeks….I’m new to the forum, but have been posting on the blog for months now)

Matt

you mean this?

The June Case-Schiller #s are decent nationally, but actually pretty bad in Southern California.  If there is a “bounce”, it didn’t start in June. 

Japan had sequentially lower housing prices for something like 30 quarters in a row from the mid-90s until recently.  Why everyone is so confident that we’ll see a final bottom in the next few years eludes me, especially when we’re following their script from that time to the letter.

In order to have a dead cat bounce, don’t you first need a bounce? Sales are still running at like half the historical average.

bigmoneysalsa - 27 August 2008 03:18 PM

In order to have a dead cat bounce, don’t you first need a bounce? Sales are still running at like half the historical average.

Actually I think you need to find a cat first

Newport Trojan - 27 August 2008 08:47 PM

bigmoneysalsa - 27 August 2008 03:18 PM

In order to have a dead cat bounce, don’t you first need a bounce? Sales are still running at like half the historical average.

Actually I think you need to find a cat first

There are a few cats in the neighborhood I am in at the moment that we could use. 

Anyway, it is a dead count bounce, just like 1993 was. Wash, rinse, and repeat. Or maybe we should just rephrase it as wishful thinking. Click the link and read it, then you will see the anti-Cassandras for what they are.

The local newspaper yesterday saw this decreasing acceleration
as “brightening” instead of night falling more slowly, which would
be the correct metaphor.

And anyway that deceleration is just a little jog, right.  No reason
to think that prices won’t go down more quickly again, right?