FL, CA and Was DC obscure a national picture which isn’t that gloomy.

region, may, june

phx 157.32 153.19
la 198.59 195.74
sd 178.03 175.37
sf 162.70 159.83
den 129.72 131.64
was 199.24 197.39
mia 193.19 189.87
tam 177.14 175.14
atl 124.33 125.08
chi 149.95 150.25
bos 160.34 162.32
det 92.76 92.68
min 140.13 141.50
chr 133.16 133.64
lv 161.04 158.51
ny 193.91 194.22
cle 10.888 109.67
por 175.53 175.03
dal 121.58 122.38
sea 178.67 178.28
composite 10 181.48 180.38
composite 20 168.54 167.69

many of the regions which recorded small bounces this month are effectively flat for the calendar year.  not so true for the greater CA and FL markets, which just keep getting crushed.

Hormiguero - 26 August 2008 07:44 AM

FL, CA and Was DC obscure a national picture which isn’t that gloomy.

region, may, june

phx 157.32 153.19
la 198.59 195.74
sd 178.03 175.37
sf 162.70 159.83
den 129.72 131.64
was 199.24 197.39
mia 193.19 189.87
tam 177.14 175.14
atl 124.33 125.08
chi 149.95 150.25
bos 160.34 162.32
det 92.76 92.68
min 140.13 141.50
chr 133.16 133.64
lv 161.04 158.51
ny 193.91 194.22
cle 10.888 109.67
por 175.53 175.03
dal 121.58 122.38
sea 178.67 178.28
composite 10 181.48 180.38
composite 20 168.54 167.69

many of the regions which recorded small bounces this month are effectively flat for the calendar year.  not so true for the greater CA and FL markets, which just keep getting crushed.

As expected, the decline in June was relatively small as compared to recent history, and is the third month straight of slower declines.  Only a few months of time will tell if its a dead cat bounce or some kind of real intermediate term bottoming.  With 30-year fixed rates remaining low (6.125% today at PenFed), YOY inventories a bit lower, and sales having picked up, there isn’t much current catalyst for further big declines…  All that REO inventory that Graph keeps talking about needs to hit the market.  When’s that gonna happen GCakes?  I was a good boy, sold my condo and became a bitter renter.  Where are these REOs?!

First, the rate of decline is still quite rapid. 1.4% per month is about 15% per year.

Second, Case Shiller is seasonal. During the summer the index increases faster during booms and decreases slower during busts. Don’t take my word for it go look at the charts. Expect the pace of declines to increase substantially 2nd half of the year.

the #s for LA, PHX, LV, SF, FL and DC are indeed crappy.  However, the rest of the country is looking decent.  I wonder to what extent this is a self-reinforcing trend in those weaker markets - Florida, Arizona and LA, of course, all have a very long history of real estate hucksterism being the backbone of the economy, so this isn’t too surprising.  DC, meanwhile, should feel the effects of lower federal spending once the son-of-LBJ regime leaves town (less due to any policy change than the fact that the coffers are empty and the FRE/FNM bailout will be acting like a magnet for whatever nickels are left under the federal couch cushions).

It’s almost like a photo-negative of the “Two Americas” than John Edwards would prattle on about - only this time its the wealthy coastal areas feeling the burn.

well, the housingtracker list price numbers for OC kindof back this up.

The higher end didn’t drop at all, while the lower end continues its tumble:

              25th   % drop   %drop/peak   50th   % drop   %drop/peak   75th   % drop   %drop/peak
Aug-08   19,453     $330,975   3.1   38.3         $492,000   1.3   29.2     $799,000     0.0       17.9
Jul-08   19,624       $341,605     3.8     36.3           $498,475     2.8     28.3       $799,000       3.6         17.9

(damn, but tables suck in this forum)

bigmoneysalsa - 26 August 2008 10:25 AM

First, the rate of decline is still quite rapid. 1.4% per month is about 15% per year.

Second, Case Shiller is seasonal. During the summer the index increases faster during booms and decreases slower during busts. Don’t take my word for it go look at the charts. Expect the pace of declines to increase substantially 2nd half of the year.

My down payment fund aches for you to be right about 2nd half declines bigmoney.  Being a homeowner through 3-4% down months and renting on 1% down months is no fun, but I guess better than being a renter on 1% up months!

If we somehow got 15% between now and next summer, I’d probably be a buyer then…

ipoplaya - 26 August 2008 02:49 PM

bigmoneysalsa - 26 August 2008 10:25 AM

First, the rate of decline is still quite rapid. 1.4% per month is about 15% per year.

Second, Case Shiller is seasonal. During the summer the index increases faster during booms and decreases slower during busts. Don’t take my word for it go look at the charts. Expect the pace of declines to increase substantially 2nd half of the year.

My down payment fund aches for you to be right about 2nd half declines bigmoney.  Being a homeowner through 3-4% down months and renting on 1% down months is no fun, but I guess better than being a renter on 1% up months!

If we somehow got 15% between now and next summer, I’d probably be a buyer then…

Trust me. Fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County…

ipoplaya - 26 August 2008 02:49 PM

bigmoneysalsa - 26 August 2008 10:25 AM

First, the rate of decline is still quite rapid. 1.4% per month is about 15% per year.

Second, Case Shiller is seasonal. During the summer the index increases faster during booms and decreases slower during busts. Don’t take my word for it go look at the charts. Expect the pace of declines to increase substantially 2nd half of the year.

My down payment fund aches for you to be right about 2nd half declines bigmoney.  Being a homeowner through 3-4% down months and renting on 1% down months is no fun, but I guess better than being a renter on 1% up months!

If we somehow got 15% between now and next summer, I’d probably be a buyer then…

Sheesh… it is no wonder Duece needed a vacation. Calm down there Panda II. Go play with some international ETFs and start shorting the dollar or something. I hear all the cool pandas are doing that. Your REOs are coming, just check out what is scheduled for tomorrow. Go read the loan mod stats thread, it will certainly give you hope.

In the mean time, enjoy a yummy cracker cake…

graphrix - 26 August 2008 03:26 PM

ipoplaya - 26 August 2008 02:49 PM

bigmoneysalsa - 26 August 2008 10:25 AM

First, the rate of decline is still quite rapid. 1.4% per month is about 15% per year.

Second, Case Shiller is seasonal. During the summer the index increases faster during booms and decreases slower during busts. Don’t take my word for it go look at the charts. Expect the pace of declines to increase substantially 2nd half of the year.

My down payment fund aches for you to be right about 2nd half declines bigmoney.  Being a homeowner through 3-4% down months and renting on 1% down months is no fun, but I guess better than being a renter on 1% up months!

If we somehow got 15% between now and next summer, I’d probably be a buyer then…

Sheesh… it is no wonder Duece needed a vacation. Calm down there Panda II. Go play with some international ETFs and start shorting the dollar or something. I hear all the cool pandas are doing that. Your REOs are coming, just check out what is scheduled for tomorrow. Go read the loan mod stats thread, it will certainly give you hope.

In the mean time, enjoy a yummy cracker cake…

Alright, I’ll be calm, sit back, and count my interest earnings.  I always get my panties in a bunch when I have to add 2005 rollbacks to the IPO-Shiller.  Doesn’t help that Irvine prices have pretty much stayed in a tight range since March, i.e. practically no Irvine declines over the past six months.

Just remember, if prices aren’t down at least 10% by this time next year, I will hunt you down and terminate you.

And I prefer tasty graph cake over cracker cake any day…

ipoplaya - 26 August 2008 03:48 PM

Alright, I’ll be calm, sit back, and count my interest earnings.  I always get my panties in a bunch when I have to add 2005 rollbacks to the IPO-Shiller.  Doesn’t help that Irvine prices have pretty much stayed in a tight range since March, i.e. practically no Irvine declines over the past six months.

Just remember, if prices aren’t down at least 10% by this time next year, I will hunt you down and terminate you.

Oh sh*t… does that mean you will go all 909 on me?

graphrix - 26 August 2008 03:58 PM

ipoplaya - 26 August 2008 03:48 PM

Alright, I’ll be calm, sit back, and count my interest earnings.  I always get my panties in a bunch when I have to add 2005 rollbacks to the IPO-Shiller.  Doesn’t help that Irvine prices have pretty much stayed in a tight range since March, i.e. practically no Irvine declines over the past six months.

Just remember, if prices aren’t down at least 10% by this time next year, I will hunt you down and terminate you.

Oh sh*t… does that mean you will go all 909 on me?

Just put your hand in my mailbox and you’ll find out!