freedomCM - 15 May 2008 05:07 PM

wow, I read the CS method, and I think I will stick with Caliguy’s.

Is this what you do too, IPO?  Or do you do some weighting?

I followed what IPO does to come up with the current CS values (or should I say current CS-IPO values) - at least I think I am. They should yield the same CS values.

caliguy and I calc the same way…

I have noticed a number of places in AV that fell out of escrow within the last week.  Woohoo!

One more close yesterday on Evening Light.  195 index value.  Very tight range on the closes in 92656 so far.

Hi ipoplaya,

I’d like to thank you for providing tracking on AV home sales.  I am looking to buy there or MV probably later this year.  Your information can be a great help and we may be neighbors in the future!

One of the houses I liked in AV closed recently (5/15, just reported to MLS) for nearly a 2003 price.

This house sold in June 2004 for $979K.  Most recent sale is 10% of its 2004 purchase price…

AV IPO-Shiller

In your opinion, what would be the main reasons why Aliso Viejo would be on average $100,000 less than a home in Irvine? Is it the schools?, Is it the access to freeways? Access to work? Older Homes? AV seems to be a much nicer place to live than Garden Grove, but the average home prices seem to be at same level as that of Garden Grove.

I have been looking mostly in the Northern Irvine area for a home, but I mean AV does not seem to be like a bad location as it is closer to the pacific ocean than Northern Irvine. I do travel quite a bit so a close proximately to John Wayne Airport factors in to my home buying decision. Would the distance be the same to get to the airport from Portola Springs/Woodbury in Irvine compared to Aliso Viejo?

I am also looking for some office/warehouse spaces in AV. Where would most of them be located in AV? Are rents in AV equivalent to Irvine, or 10-20% less. If I were to purchase an 2000 - 2500 sq/ft office/warehouse in AV, by what percentage would they be cheaper than buying the same office/warehouse space in Irvine.

Panda.

Two more closes added to AV tracking.

Panda, you can take the 73 Toll Road from AV right to SNA. It’s a bit pricey - but it’s a quick road to the airport.

Aliso Viejo according to a map is just on the back side of Laguna Beach. The perpendicular distance is very short to the coast line. Here is the problem: the location has no access to Laguna Beach because the terrain is too steep for roads. It is nestle in the base of the hills where air is stagnant and breeze seldom make it over the hills and if it did then it will miss Aliso at the base. As a result, it is damn hot! and it is way hotter than Irvine. House prices according to my earlier post is relative to temperature difference from the coast. Due to the stagnant air and under a pressure zone there is no prevailing wind. Temperature is 6-7 degree higher than the coast.

Master plan of Aliso Viejo and RSM were done around the same time. Industry people predicted that both would someday would become the South County ghettos. Hearthside Homes and Signature Homes were the major force behind Aliso and Fieldstone and Recreaction behind RSM. Signature Homes and Recreaction were long gone. Hearthside went on and built prisons and recently ventured back to home building on such project like Brightwater at Huntington Beach by Hearthside Homes. Fieldstone are among the bottom feeder of the industry. There were no great builders in both locations. Most builders responsible closed their doors many years ago.

Third and fourth tier architects designed projects there for years. They are Pekarek Crandall, MJ Knitter, Smet, Dale Sexton, Hale Langsdon, Iverson, Corbin Yamafugi (current KTGY) and earlier works of Bassenian Lagoni who designed Brightwater at Huntington Beach by Hearthside Homes. This is one of the reason within the industry Aliso could not match its prices with Irvine. Let me make a comparison. JC Penney knows its branding and will never try set its price like Nordstrom because Penny knows its place in the retail business and this also applied to Aliso in the building industry.

Driving on the San Joaquin Toll Road passing by Turtle Ridge and Newport Coast arriving into Aliso, the picturesque and meandering street and terraces of the Irvine Ranch would shame the engineered manufactured tiered lots on the Aliso hillside seen from the toll road. It is just poor,poor,poor,poor plannings. It was the designs from the Miami Vice glass block 80’s. Style of architecture that is not time tested and extremely trendy. There were 10 different colors applied to a single house by the color consultant Mariam Tate. Architecture and neighborhood lack a timeless quality.

Bad planning, bad architecture, BK builders, Bottom feeder builders, Prison builder, and Bad feng shui (stagnant air) etc. Why should it command a higher price?

PANDA - 30 May 2008 07:55 AM

In your opinion, what would be the main reasons why Aliso Viejo would be on average $100,000 less than a home in Irvine? Is it the schools?, Is it the access to freeways? Access to work? Older Homes? AV seems to be a much nicer place to live than Garden Grove, but the average home prices seem to be at same level as that of Garden Grove.

I have been looking mostly in the Northern Irvine area for a home, but I mean AV does not seem to be like a bad location as it is closer to the pacific ocean than Northern Irvine. I do travel quite a bit so a close proximately to John Wayne Airport factors in to my home buying decision. Would the distance be the same to get to the airport from Portola Springs/Woodbury in Irvine compared to Aliso Viejo?

I am also looking for some office/warehouse spaces in AV. Where would most of them be located in AV? Are rents in AV equivalent to Irvine, or 10-20% less. If I were to purchase an 2000 - 2500 sq/ft office/warehouse in AV, by what percentage would they be cheaper than buying the same office/warehouse space in Irvine.

Panda.

Longer and less flexible commute to work for many.  Also an inferior school district as compared to IUSD.  Two other reasons it won’t have the same premium as Irvine…

AV reminds me of a hilly VoC.  Cute and trendy, trying to be something its not…

Mundane development on hillside often enhanced by its natural topography became much more appealing and interesting. One must have done a very bad job for developing a hillside for it to become an eye sore.

Moving dirt excessively and manufacturing slopes to maximize developments are the reason for its bad aesthetic. The beautiful terrains once existed in Aliso were raped extensively even mother nature could not heel itself from the traumatic events.

ipoplaya - 04 June 2008 06:29 PM

Longer and less flexible commute to work for many. Also an inferior school district as compared to IUSD. Two other reasons it won’t have the same premium as Irvine…

AV reminds me of a hilly VoC. Cute and trendy, trying to be something its not…

I have a friend who bought in Aliso and it is pretty far out of the way. Plus, as others have mentioned, most of the developments there are blindingly ugly.

I have visited good and bad neighborhoods for 35 years. New neighborhoods with ugly homes, boring and long street pattern, and bad planning eventually become ghettos. Here are some examples Buena Park, Cypress, Stanton, Garden Grove, Bellflower, Hawaiian Garden, are true testament of this theory. They all started nice and tidy with family who seeked a better life in the suburbs. Both RSM and Aliso fit into the pattern. Eventually the pride of homeowners will be worn out by bad morals.

QH Renter - 04 June 2008 09:42 PM

I have a friend who bought in Aliso and it is pretty far out of the way. Plus, as others have mentioned, most of the developments there are blindingly ugly.

Hi bkshopr,

Thank you for providing professional assessment on AV’s housing.  I thought AV or RSM would be a good alternative if I don’t like to keep up with the Joneses in Irvine. After reading your posts now it looks that I need to reconsider.  We are a young couple who don’t have much budget to buy in coastal areas like Newport or Laguna Beach either.  Can you give recommendations on which other areas besides Irvine in south OC may be considerable for young couples with kids? Thank you in advance for your generous feedbacks.

Look for a home in the older neighborhoods of Irvine. Buy from sellers who bought the homes a long time ago and they have plenty of equity cushion so they would not be asking for WTF prices. Most people move because they need more bedrooms and yard for the children. Older properties have a big yard already and you can add on to the house by extending living space toward the big yard as needed. If you buy a new home then you will be land locked with no yard and no expansion.

Since you do not keep up with the Joneses then your home could be modest and future expansion could be kept at a minimum. By keeping everything basic finish contractor can not find an excuse to rob you. The basic could cost you about $80/sf. Anywhere in Irvine the school is good.

Meatball - 05 June 2008 10:54 AM

Hi bkshopr,

Thank you for providing professional assessment on AV’s housing.  I thought AV or RSM would be a good alternative if I don’t like to keep up with the Joneses in Irvine. After reading your posts now it looks that I need to reconsider.  We are a young couple who don’t have much budget to buy in coastal areas like Newport or Laguna Beach either.  Can you give recommendations on which other areas besides Irvine in south OC may be considerable for young couples with kids? Thank you in advance for your generous feedbacks.

PadreBrian - 03 May 2008 11:28 PM

norcal_to_socal - 27 November 2007 12:48 PM

Anyone have any thoughts on Pasadera at Glenwood?  It’s a new construction on the golf course in AV.  The prices are around $850k - 950k for house between 2700 - 3100 sqft.   The HOA is around $170/month  with a ~1.7% property tax (including Mello Roos). I thought the floorplans were actually pretty nice (at least the plan 2).

 

www.sheahomes.com/main.cfm

 

After watching the Irvine market for the last 6 months, I’m starting to wonder if I should consider this option, as opposed to continuing to look in Irvine.

 

 

 

 

Okay this answers the Mela Roos question…and that’s a nice drop in prices…same as Irvine.

150-200k drop! And going down!

My husband and I just bought at Pasadera after looking for over a year.  We looked at Talega and Turtle Ridge, and off and on in Aliso.  We are extremely happy with our decision to go with Glenwood.  For the square footage and a brand new house, they are a better deal than most we looked at.  Obvioulsy I think the market has a while to go before it hits the bottom, but with a new home at this price we feel good about our decision.

bkshopr - 05 June 2008 07:55 PM

Look for a home in the older neighborhoods of Irvine.

Uh, Houses in el camino are orders of magnitude more ugly then the worst Aliso has to offer.  What are you smoking/

25w100k+ - 26 June 2008 04:33 PM

bkshopr - 05 June 2008 07:55 PM

Look for a home in the older neighborhoods of Irvine.

Uh, Houses in el camino are orders of magnitude more ugly then the worst Aliso has to offer.  What are you smoking/

I stopped by his office that day, he was hitting the Kool-Aid powder pretty hard. There was powder everywhere, a bunch of floor plans scattered about with red ink scribbled all over them about bad feng shui, all these pictures plastered all over of great architects, and BK was hunched over in the corner crying about how Lennar ruined Irvine. Needless to say it was a bad day for BK. I think it was the same day the housing hostess asianmutation didn’t understand what a condo was. So, forgive him, as he knows those homes in El Camino are some of the fugliest homes ever built in OC, except for some of that mushroom top 70s crap built in south county.

25w100k+ - 26 June 2008 04:33 PM

bkshopr - 05 June 2008 07:55 PM

Look for a home in the older neighborhoods of Irvine.

Uh, Houses in el camino are orders of magnitude more ugly then the worst Aliso has to offer.  What are you smoking/

Meatball said he does not keep up with the Joneses and El Camino or Deerfield are neighborhoods of modest people.
Meatball said he has limited cash so these 2 neighborhoods have the lowest price.
Meatball said he has a young family with kids so these neighborhoods have good size yard for kids to play as well as many parks.
Meatball’s family will mature and will need more space and the lots will allow for home additions to satisfy the growing needs.

Or buy a pretty townhome with no yard and move in two years because he needs a swing set for the kids.
Then move to a detached condo with a compact size patio so he can install a swing set.
Then move to a bigger zero lot house with bigger bedrooms so the kids can have their own bedrooms.
Then move to a conventional detached home because the kids are teenagers and need their own domain.
Finally his wife is fed up from the movings and wanted a divorce then meatball needs to list furniture on CL.

As much I like beauty but function and economic logic come first.

Thank you bkshopr for the recommendation and sorry for the “smoke” that you suffer for answering my question. I actually am not handy at all therefore I have concern of buying in older neighborhoods.  Do you think West Irvine would be another choice considering my situation?

And I myself hate moving.  I grew up in a family that only moved once and I appreciated my parents for their saving aggressively for buying a bigger house that can accommodate me and my 4 siblings until we all went to college.  Your suggestion makes great sense.

BK’s post could not have ended better “needs to list furniture on CL” hhahaha

My GF and I went strolling through Lake Forest one night looking at some SFRs for sale to get a better idea of the neighborhoods. ( A nice drive to our house is important to us, this is why we do not like driving to the Beverly Center.) When I realized that I could just go down El Toro to AV.  Once in AV I remembered a SFR home listed for 419,000 in a housing tract off of Moulton and Elm Creek I believe.  As we drove around the area we noticed middle aged people walking their dogs and other friendly looking people outside.  I saw a familiar looking house with a yard sign so I asked the lady who was watering an adjacent yard how much the house is going for. We get to talking for about 10 minutes and then her husband comes out and invites us to go look at their floor plan as it is the same model.  She told us about the neighborhood, the people, and I was pretty impressed.  They have a fourth of July block party, monthly pizza parties at a mans house who installed a pizza oven in his backyard, etc.

Personally, I like Aliso Viejo.  Driving through Aliso Viejo I do not get a cold feeling that I have experienced driving through somewhere like OrangeTree in Irvine.  We were in AV during this past heat wave and I did not feel that much of a difference than here in Woodbury. The intersection of Moulton and Alicia Parkway is 8 minutes from the entrance to Irvine Spectrum or an entrance to the 405.  API wise the schools are in the lower to mid 800’s which are good schools according to API however, they are not 900+ like Irvine.  If we could get a driveway, 3bedroom 3 full bath condo in Irvine for 420k, we would definitely want to stay in Irvine, but from what we have seen in Irvine even out of our current price range, we were not that happy.  Either they have detached garages, attached garages but less than pleasant floor plans, high mello roo’s, etc.  We have easily seen 30 places in person, and countless more online and nothing was that impressive even 80k out of her budget. 

Honestly, it took a while to accept that we may not be able to live in Irvine at this moment in our lives.  Irvine is like Kool-Aid, you get one little taste and you cannot stop drinking it especially in the heat of AV, haha   But when we have a dual income and more years under our belt, we may move back.

gwailo168 - 27 June 2008 08:01 AM

BK’s post could not have ended better “needs to list furniture on CL” hhahaha

My GF and I went strolling through Lake Forest one night looking at some SFRs for sale to get a better idea of the neighborhoods. ( A nice drive to our house is important to us, this is why we do not like driving to the Beverly Center.) When I realized that I could just go down El Toro to AV.  Once in AV I remembered a SFR home listed for 419,000 in a housing tract off of Moulton and Elm Creek I believe.  As we drove around the area we noticed middle aged people walking their dogs and other friendly looking people outside.  I saw a familiar looking house with a yard sign so I asked the lady who was watering an adjacent yard how much the house is going for. We get to talking for about 10 minutes and then her husband comes out and invites us to go look at their floor plan as it is the same model.  She told us about the neighborhood, the people, and I was pretty impressed.  They have a fourth of July block party, monthly pizza parties at a mans house who installed a pizza oven in his backyard, etc.

Personally, I like Aliso Viejo.  Driving through Aliso Viejo I do not get a cold feeling that I have experienced driving through somewhere like OrangeTree in Irvine.  We were in AV during this past heat wave and I did not feel that much of a difference than here in Woodbury. The intersection of Moulton and Alicia Parkway is 8 minutes from the entrance to Irvine Spectrum or an entrance to the 405.  API wise the schools are in the lower to mid 800’s which are good schools according to API however, they are not 900+ like Irvine.  If we could get a driveway, 3bedroom 3 full bath condo in Irvine for 420k, we would definitely want to stay in Irvine, but from what we have seen in Irvine even out of our current price range, we were not that happy.  Either they have detached garages, attached garages but less than pleasant floor plans, high mello roo’s, etc.  We have easily seen 30 places in person, and countless more online and nothing was that impressive even 80k out of her budget. 

Honestly, it took a while to accept that we may not be able to live in Irvine at this moment in our lives.  Irvine is like Kool-Aid, you get one little taste and you cannot stop drinking it especially in the heat of AV, haha   But when we have a dual income and more years under our belt, we may move back.

Aliso is certainly a good option. Most of it is fairly new, and it’s got good access to central county through the 133. Traffic is nowhere near as bad as Irvine.

You might want to check out some of bk’s thoughts on this city design and location, but overall I like the place. The schools are pretty good, though the district is in turmoil right now. Overall, though, good.

A couple other things to watch for: You will have to pay mello roos. You won’t have to if you live in Laguna Niguel. Something to keep in mind. And, some of the neighborhoods there are VERY packed in. Obviously, it all depends on the specific location.

You might be interested in this place...REO that by IPO’s CS methodology is a mid-2003 rollback.

Nice place!  It is amazing that it went from 825 to 472k!

Im not that worried about the schools as we do not plan to have kids for at least 5 years, so they would not enter the school system for at least 10.

Does anyone know where I can find a way to compare two yearly climates by zip code?  I wonder how the weather in AV compares to Woodbury.

Ok, BK you make a good point about saving Meatball’s marriage. 

btw, I’d love to see that place close for 470 or less.  That will be a compkiller for sure!

http://www.weather.com/weather/climatology/monthly/92620?

versus

http://www.weather.com/weather/climatology/monthly/92656?

Looks like Aliso Viejo 92656 is cooler than the 92620

This is a g