http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQWRUinDTAI8&refer=home
Homebuilder Confidence
For example, confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose for a second straight month in February and companies said there were more prospective buyers touring properties, the National Association of Homebuilders said on Feb. 19. In addition, the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment showed a record number of Americans said lower prices made conditions more favorable for buying a house.
Elevated inventories and sluggish demand are prompting sellers to lower their prices. The National Association of Realtors forecast on Feb. 7 that prices for existing homes will decline 1.2 percent this year.
``We’re seeing prices now that are basically back to ‘02, ‘03 levels,‘’ Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Feb. 21. ``That begins to get compelling for customers.‘’
Even so, the housing market ``continues to be in a very difficult position right now,‘’ and weaker sales are cutting into builders’ profits, Hovnanian said.

Well, I guess it’s a step forward that NAR admits the prices will decline, even tho it’s a piddly amount.

This smacks of desperation…

If I were a KB Home customer, I would be saving up to cover the equity burn on my depreciating asset.

Hah! John Laing Homes makes you use their preferred lender, most appropriately named JLH Mortgage. So John Laing swings for a few discount points to sell you one hugely overpriced and depreciating asset. Totally stinks of desperation. How about the rebates or other inducements to the buyer?

"I’d fill my gas tank…500 times!"

They’d better adjust that down to maybe 100 times considering where prices are headed.

Lyon Homes to mothball 10 projects
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/03/12/lyon-homes-to-mothball-10-projects/

John Laing e-mail:

To buy or not to buy? Read what Time says.

Are you in a wait-and-see mode about buying a new home? Famed Money Manager Peter Lynch has some good advice, "Ignore the headlines." In a recent article in Time Magazine, Lynch reaffirmed to the author his view "that homeownership should be your first investment, since an owner-occupied home is nearly always profitable." In fact, the article points out that waiting may not be a very good decision at all.

    "Let’s say you are emotionally ready to be a homeowner. You have good credit, plan to stay put five years and have been waiting for the perfect entry point. It’s time to get serious - before an inevitable rise in interest rates wipes out your advantage."

Time Magazine, 2/14/08

"Risk always seems more acute when the headlines give you ulcers. But that’s exactly when you should think long term - and get off your thumbs."

Time Magazine, 2/14/08

Make the Decision that Works for You

When you’re ready, John Laing Homes has all the resources you need to make the decision that’s right for you. You can research available homes in Orange County and San Diego on our website. With so many choices, you’re certain to find several neighborhoods that suit your lifestyle. And if you need to sell your current home just ask about our House to Sell program. We have referral rewards and great financing programs, too.

The bottom line? You find the home you love and we’ll do everything we can to help you achieve your goal.

Best Wishes,

John Laing Homes

Link to Time mag story quoted in e-mail

Price Protection from Shea.  I am currently trying to track someone down to explain the duration of the protection, the methods used to strike a market price, etc.

http://images.getunicorn.com/shea/shea_web/

CapitalismWorks,

If you find anything out, please let us know. I remember the comment you made last week about the builders being natural hedgers in the RE market. Funny that they are openly offering a futures contract to prospective buyers.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120553684871238089.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
Two Projects in Default Dog Big Home Builders
Two massive housing developments in Las Vegas, involving several of the nation’s largest home builders, have received default notices on about $765 million in debt, according to one of the partners in the projects.
John Ritter, chief executive of Las Vegas-based Focus Property Group, says that two joint ventures, involving builders <a class=“times rolloverQuote”>Toll Brothers</a> Inc., <a class=“times rolloverQuote”>KB Home</a> and <a class=“times rolloverQuote”>Lennar</a> Corp. among others, have each missed an interest payment in recent weeks and are in negotiations with lenders.

Follow up to the Shea homes thing price protection.  In short it is total BS.  All they are offering is to lower the purchase price for you if they (Shea) lowers the offering price on the same floorplan in the same developments (so much for using comps).  Furthermore the price protection is only in place up to 45 days prior to the closing of escrow.  So again, they aren’t offering much.

I did find out that Birch River a Glenwood (Aliso Viejo) has at least 3 of the 4000+ sq/ft. homes completed and sitting, and they are building more.

The call was entertaining. I baited the sales woman into a conversation about the market explaining that I didn’t want to purchase a home that would be worth less in 12 months…  She immediately piped up about how everyone is talking about when we will reach the bottom of the market, and that she was confident that bottom was now.  I asked her how that was possible considering what happened at Bear Stearns.  Silence…followed by,  “What is Bear Stearns?“

The answer is if the builders were sure the bottom is now, they’d offer post-closing price protection and wouldn’t see it as a risk.  The fact that they won’t offer this shows that they are confident the market will continue to drop.
Any of these protections up to the close of escrow are a complete waste of time.  If they want people off the fence, they need to lower prices or man-up to something post-sale based on comps.
SCHB

This email I received today smells of desperation …..
To buy or not to buy? Read what Time says.

Dear ________,

Are you in a wait-and-see mode about buying a new home? Famed Money Manager Peter Lynch has some good advice, "Ignore the headlines." In a recent article in Time Magazine, Lynch reaffirmed to the author his view "that homeownership should be your first investment, since an owner-occupied home is nearly always profitable." In fact, the article points out that waiting may not be a very good decision at all.

 
     
       
        <!—[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id=“_x0000_t75”
        coordsize=“21600,21600” o:spt=“75” o:preferrelative=“t” path=“m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe”
        filled=“f” stroked=“f”>
        <v:stroke joinstyle=“miter” >
        <v:formulas>
        <v:f eqn=“if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0” >
        <v:f eqn=“sum @0 1 0” >
        <v:f eqn=“sum 0 0 @1” >
        <v:f eqn=“prod @2 1 2” >
        <v:f eqn=“prod @3 21600 pixelWidth” >
        <v:f eqn=“prod @3 21600 pixelHeight” >
        <v:f eqn=“sum @0 0 1” >
        <v:f eqn=“prod @6 1 2” >
        <v:f eqn=“prod @7 21600 pixelWidth” >
        <v:f eqn=“sum @8 21600 0” >
        <v:f eqn=“prod @7 21600 pixelHeight” >
        <v:f eqn=“sum @10 21600 0” >
        </v:formulas>
        <v:path o:extrusionok=“f” gradientshapeok=“t” o:connecttype=“rect” >
        <o:lock v:ext=“edit” aspectratio=“t” >
        </v:shapetype><v:shape id=“_x0000_i1025” type=“#_x0000_t75” alt=“” style=‘width:22.5pt;
        height:.75pt’>
        <v:imagedata src=“file:///C:\DOCUME~1\Richard\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif”
        o:href=“http://www.interactivate.com/johnlainghomes/woodbury/images/spacer.gif” >
        </v:shape><![endif]—>
       
       
        "Let’s say you   are emotionally ready to be a homeowner. You have good credit, plan to stay   put five years and have been waiting for the perfect entry point. It’s time   to get serious - before an inevitable rise in interest rates wipes out your   advantage."

        <!—[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id=“_x0000_i1026” type=“#_x0000_t75” alt=“”
        style=‘width:150pt;height:.75pt’>
        <v:imagedata src=“file:///C:\DOCUME~1\Richard\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif”
        o:href=“http://www.interactivate.com/johnlainghomes/woodbury/images/spacer.gif” >
        </v:shape><![endif]—>Time   Magazine, 2/14/08

        "Risk always seems more acute when the headlines give you ulcers. But   that’s exactly when you should think long term - and get off your   thumbs."

        <!—[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id=“_x0000_i1027” type=“#_x0000_t75” alt=“”
        style=‘width:150pt;height:.75pt’>
        <v:imagedata src=“file:///C:\DOCUME~1\Richard\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif”
        o:href=“http://www.interactivate.com/johnlainghomes/woodbury/images/spacer.gif” >
        </v:shape><![endif]—>Time   Magazine, 2/14/08
       
     
 

Make the Decision that Works for You

When you’re ready, John Laing Homes has all the resources you need to make the decision that’s right for you. You can research available homes in Orange County and San Diego on our website. With so many choices, you’re certain to find several neighborhoods that suit your lifestyle. And if you need to sell your current home just ask about our House to Sell program. We have referral rewards and great financing programs, too.

The bottom line? You find the home you love and we’ll do everything we can to help you achieve your goal.

Best Wishes,

John Laing Homes

949-476-9090

http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/03/20/builder-standard-pacifics-ceo-retires/
Builder Standard Pacific’s CEO ‘retires’

Stadium Lofts ad in today’s Register announcing discount pricing examples for three units through April 15:

1-bedroom

Was: $358,900

Now: $294,298

2-bedroom

Was: $460,000

Now: $391,000

3-bedroom

Was: $530,800

Now: $451,180

Bottom of the ad:

"These aren’t the only 3. Many more available at reduced prices."

$0 down?   Talk among yourselves.
www.elabs7.com/functions/message_view.html
 

 

For homebuyers seeking the advantages of the United States’ 2008 Economic Stimulus Package, William Lyon Homes has important news. At select neighborhoods William Lyon Homes’ Personal Economic Stimulus Package enables you to take advantage of the new FHA 3% Down programs backed by the Federal government. Featured neighborhoods offer $0 Down with down payment assistance*. Offers are for a limited time only! Don’t delay! Buy with confidence at reduced prices. Own a home backed by William Lyon Homes’ 50 years of reliability and experience.

 
     
        CAMBRIDGE LANE

        Tustin

        Attached townhomes & condominiums

        Approx. 1,114 - 1,599 sq. ft.

        (714) 389-4341

        Plan 2

        WAS FROM $439,990

        LOT 125 NOW $367,990

       
        VERANDAS

        Tustin

        Single family detached homes

        Approx. 1,887 - 2,394 sq. ft.

        (714) 289-0860

        Phase 4 Coming Soon!

        NOW FROM THE

        LOW $600,000s

       
        SAN CARLOS

        at Portola Springs

        Irvine

        Attached townhomes & condominiums

        Approx. 1,040 - 1,617 sq. ft.

        (949) 262-0875

        Plan B

        WAS FROM $514,990

        LOT 57 NOW $461,990

We can all stop worrying now because John Laing will tell us everything we need to know about homebuying.

If you’re looking for a new home, we’re ready to help, whether you choose one of our homes or not. Learn everything you need to know about buying a new home at our free home buying seminar. Please RSVP now.

When:  Wednesday, April 23rd
6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.
Where: Silverado Park Club House in Portola Springs
91 Scarlet Bloom, Irvine, CA 92618

Directions: From the 5 and 405 Freeways, exit Sand Canyon and proceed east. Make a right on Portola Parkway, then a right on Silverado and finally a left onto Pathway. Park and proceed into the Silverado Park Club House.

Why: Learn everything you need to know about buying a home from industry professionals, including:

Today’s market
Owning vs. renting
How to build equity
The escrow process
Your loan options
Closing cost information
Tax advantages
Investment advice

Attend the seminar and be entered to win a thousand dollar shopping spree! Official Rules are available at the sales offices.*

Imagine if a dozen IHBers showed up to…you know…ask questions and learn more about homebuying.  I would pay serious money to be a fly on the wall in that room.

As in an organized flashmob type of gathering?

I would go just for this…

IrvineCommuter - 09 April 2008 03:09 PM

Attend the seminar and be entered to win a thousand dollar shopping spree!

K. Hovnanian closing Irvine office
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/04/18/k-hovnanian-closing-irvine-office/

Is O.C. builder Standard Pacific up for sale?
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/05/12/is-standard-pacific-up-for-sale/

Unloading Inventory
Housing slump forcing builders to employ auctions, other strategies to boost sales
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20080608/NEWS07/806080356/1036/BUSINESS01&title=Unloading_Inventory

After selling just 16 homes in an entire year, Standard Pacific Homes is tired of waiting for a housing turnaround and aims to auction off the rest of its Santa Rosa subdivision in a single day.

Copy of “ZERO Down Now Before New Housing Bill Takes Effect” email I got from Standard Pacific…

http://www.activatemail.com/amail/backup.php?&messageID=7907&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=msgid.7907