I got the card and share the disappointment in their apparent strategy of aiming only for high-end.
Having said that, I’m doubtful the market will be in a position in 2008 to absorb signfiicant inventory at those prices, but you never know.
SCHB

Hey there!  First post for me…
 
I’ve been following along with this blog for some time now… and also had high hopes for Orchard…  and as many of you, I too was hoping for a single family home in the $700,00-$900,000 price range - detached.  Sold my home last May, and I’ve been renting ever since.
 
Am I crazy here?!  Come on builders… is it too much to ask for a nice Single Family Home, Detached, with AN ACTUAL DRIVEWAY, AN ACTUAL BACKYARD, and no common wall?  I was also hoping that Standard Pacific may be one of the builders… does anyone know?  I sent an email to TIC - they promise a response to all emails (It’s been a week -still no reply).
 

Looks like some bonds for OH are slated to be issued next month (May).  For some very interesting information, follow this link and do a search for Orchard Hills. 

<em class=“yschurl”>www.ci.irvine.ca.us/civica/<wbr></wbr>filebank/blobdload.asp?BlobID=8884

Apparently, they will be adjustable rate bonds:  </em><em class=“yschurl”>www.ci.irvine.ca.us/civica/<wbr></wbr>filebank/blobdload.asp?BlobID=7889  (look for "05-21")

This (</em><em class=“yschurl”>www.ci.irvine.ca.us/civica/<wbr></wbr>filebank/blobdload.asp?BlobID=7240</em>) is also very interesting - be sure to click the links.

ELS,
Thank you for providing bonds information on OH’s.  I would like to understand how bad Mello-Roos Assessments going to get for OH’s.  I am thinking out loud that it can not as bad as PS’s since the was a general drop in land value.  What do you think?
I can totally understand the reasons TIC making OH high-end homes.  TIC is just responsding to the demands.  I believe there are many buyers in the $2M+ market for North Irvine area.  Also, large lot homes in North Irvine are virtually rare and are extremely desirable.  Just look at the great response for homes in the La Cima tract where the avg. lot size is 1/3 acre.   Emerson in Tustin Ranch too.
In addition, I am glad to see that OH’s is not  just another ultra-high densisity neighborhood such as WB’s for the sake of Irvine reputation.
I expect homes in OH’s to be ultra expensives and will be selling extremely well regardless of the market condition.   And  that investors and RE agents will buy them up for purpose of flipping.  My $.02 opinion.

" And  that investors and RE agents will buy them up for purpose of flipping."

I think that party will be over by the time sales begin.

IR,
If what you say will happen then perhaps I can afford to buy in OH’s.    I am not banking on it though; as TIC is rarely off with their extensive marketing research.

"as TIC is rarely off with their extensive marketing research."
While I’ll admit they take it seriously, I bet their market reserach told them they’d have Portola Spring 1/3 to 1/2 sold by now, with 3-4 price increases in place on most or all properties.  Instead, most prices have dropped $100k or more from the first phase release and sales are still at a virtual standstill.
If their assumptions for OH were solidified in 2005 & 2006, I think the market will have some surprises in store for them.
SCHB

socal,
IMO, PS has 2 negative things going for them, market down turn and poor location.  I only see market down turn, which is widely known, going for OH’s. Desireablity factor for OH’s is quite high!
I am quite sure TIC knew to bet on the good market, which got killed all the sudden by the subprime melt-down.   No one can predict when adversities occur.

Anyone have any other updates or info on Orchard Hills? Are we still looking at $1mil+ homes, starting?

Rumors had it that $1.2M is the starting price.  They probably will put these $1.2M homes along the toll road.

For those who want to wait even longer, there are more home to be built north of OH.  Take a look at www.eastoforange.com.

"Rumors had it that $1.2M is the starting price.  They probably will put these $1.2M homes along the toll road."
FWIW, when I returned the postcard to TIC, I wrote on it that I was interested in OH, but not at the prices listed.  I figured that was the best way for them to not be able to use my card to "force" the builders into pricing at $1.2M.  I’d suggest that others do the same.

EvaLSeraphin—not going to happen.  Developers know there’s a lot of pent-up demand for larger houses in that price range.  Check out the Belle Cliff development in San Juan, which has sold 36 of 40 homes offered so far this year, all in the $1 mil to $1.5 mil price range—not only is it selling briskly, but the builder has raised prices by $20k each phase.  What housing crash?

marty mcfly,

In another thread, you claimed not to be a housing bull.

"Disclaimer:  I am not a "housing bull."  Please don’t yell at me."

If housing bears are disengenuous, what do we make of this?

"What housing crash?"

Hmm…I don’t understand your confusion or see a contradiction in my posts.  Can’t I have the option of being market neutral?  Or does the fact that one does not see an impending crash make them a raging bull?
 

marty mcfly,

The certainty of the statement "not going to happen" does not seem market neutral, particularly when followed by a bullish anecdote. Perhaps I am reading more into your statement than what is there. Let’s not get off on the wrong foot.

Personally, I like contrary opinions on the board. If they are well thought out and backed by some analysis or anecdotal fact (like your example above), it is a good counterbalance to the bear market examples we post on the main blog. If we were a pure bear market blog, we would have driven away nirvinerealtor long ago.

I don’t know anything about the project you mentioned, but here in Irvine, even the realtors are dumping their high-end flips. Check out these posts: Whiner, Whiner, Whiner, The City of Lights.

Ugh, those "high end" houses in Irvine are just flat out old, ugly and overpriced… I supposed when you compare that $1M house built in the 70s to a brand new $1M house where you have the fun of customizing your options, there’s no comparison. It’s not surprising that a lot of people out there have the money and are willing to pay a premium for a brand new, high end home.

sportsfan8,
I am a fan of brand new home for the following reasons:
1.  Hot spot for school-age children - lively-new neighborhood schools.  Older neighborhoods are closing down neighborhood schools.  I have children so this is a very important factor.
2.  New house smells good.  No musty smell as that kills me.
3.  Maintenance cost for new house is minimum as the builder warrants structural damages for 10 years.  An important cost I do not have to budget for.
4.  Everyone likes new so the appreciation rate is better; thus better for resale.

nirvinerealtor,

I know all about brand new homes, as I purchased my 2/2.5 home back in ‘02. It’s just amazing that those new high end $1M+ home are selling so well. Suffice to say, unless I hit the lotto or something, I won’t be able to afford a $1M+ home in my lifetime. The wife and I would like to move up to a bigger home someday when we have kids… is a new 1800 sq foot single family home in Irvine with a decent sized yard that won’t cost an arm and a leg too much to ask?

sportsfan8,
If there is a will, there is a way!  Go for it!  Be creative and think out of a box.

"not going to happen"

Only time will tell.  *shrug*

If TIC is looking for market data among those who have already expressed interest in OH, don’t they deserve my honest answer?

"If there is a will, there is a way!  Go for it!  Be creative and think out of a box."

Um, isn’t that what caused the subprime mess?

ELS,
Mortgage payments from a subprime loan are sky high and I do not know anyone who can afford that type of payment; so, NO, that would be a wrong way.

Red, remember that, while TUSD has the drawback of Tustin High, half of Orchard will definitely feed into Beckman, which is quality. Of course, Northwood is superior, but worrying about Beckman is not cause for concern. . .  That is extremely weird though to split Orchard up. Those high schools are so close together, and in different districts. I’m sure there all of the housing built over the years necessitated that, or that there is some other story behind their strange proximity.

I forgot to mention:  I think the shopping center opens 6/1.  We received a postcard from a business relocating to OH and it is having a grand opening on 6/1.

And looky here - Zov’s will be opening another restaurant at the OH shopping center:  http://www.accessmylibrary.com/comsite5/bin/pdinventory.pl?pdlanding=1&referid=2930&purchase_type=ITM&item_id=0286-18432179

Apparently the plan for this community won an award. 
www.ocregister.com/ocregister/news/local/irvine/article_1752669.php
Does that mean an additional $100K per unit?