I’m not joking.

The groupthink is killing me.  I don’t think the group is wrong, mind you, but it can get stale.

Can somebody get ahold of ROC or Ken or something?

I can play the permabull.  Would that liven up the fourm?

I agree 100% with you, we need to exercize the "buy" side from our brain from time to time and be more flexible.

I have seen this mistake before in other online communities: people get carried away and develop tunnel vision.

I still think that we would not have a recession and the global economy is going to pick up what the local economy fails to do it, but this is going to benefit directly to the parts of the economy that have global exposure.

Well now we’re discussing the differences between “opinion” and “logic.“  I check this site daily and there is always something new and entertaining.  If bullish sentiment is requested, we can always check out other blogs

How about we just try to find bullish links?  And post them to the Headlines thread.

I’m not trolling.  I can play the roll of the permabull.

It will take me a couple of days to prepare for, but I can do it.

I’ll have to make a new handle too.  Instead of no_vaseline I’ll have to be ENILEASV_ON.

anon - we can’t because other than the NAR there aren’t any.

What makes you think that ROC, or whatever name he chooses that day, is not here?

LOL.  Could be.  Is this some case of extreme trolling?

I am bullish ... on commodities.  Does that count?

I don’t believe home valuation based on the equilibrium between net ownership cost and rental cost.  This might be true for town homes, condos.  However, I don’t believe it is a good methology for larger single family home, and especially not true for luxury homes with a lot of features both inside and outside of the homes. 

That being said, i still believe the home price will continue to fall. 

Does that count?

LOL no those don’t count!

Oh, there’s still a few bullish stories.
Golf courses - it’s different here.  Fore!
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_46/b4058086.htm?chan=search

Now that the bursting of the housing bubble is a "fait a comple"

Lets move on to selling hot tubs that float behind boats…..........

Hot tubs can have bubbles too.

Too bad you can’t short a house

Hello to all!
I have been reading this blog for 5 or 6 months and really enjoy the depth of knowledge and views expressed. There is also some great humor to keep things in line.
To take the position of "permabull" here would be foolhardy.
However, based on my experience as a real estate broker since 1985, 20 plus years in management positions with public building companies, as well as owning 25 to 27 homes, (some as flippers and some as long term investments), I do feel that I can add a different perspective to some of the discussions. My corporate experience covered communities built in Orange, San Bernadino, Riverside, and San Diego Counties.
Since I have survived the prior two up/down cycles both within the industry and as an investor I have the ability to offer the good, the bad, and the ugly of the current market as well as some historical views of the earlier events.
There is no vested interest on my part since I have recently retired and moved from "The OC" after watching and participating in its developement for the past 30 years.
Things are not always as black or  white as often presented here. Another voice might bring a clearer perspective to some of the discussions without just taking a permabull view for the hell of it.
I wear neither rose colored glasses or blinders so I feel that I can be objective about the RE industry.
Looking forward to some lively discussions!!
 
 
 
 
 
 

Hi xocal!  That’s cool, look forward to your posts.  Thank you for taking the time to post!

Anonymous

Thanks.  I will enjoy both sharing and learning.

Welcome aboard!

This will get interesting, indeed.

xlm,

It would be great to hear from someone, who isn’t wearing the rose covered glasses, and would bring a more optimistic perspective. Since you have the experience adding a historical perspective would be an awesome addition. I try my best, but I can’t say I have 20+ years of experience. Maybe you should start a discussion topic on the differences of this downturn vs. the 90’s?

As you said, it would be foolhardy to be a "permabull", it also would be foolhardy to think we are "permabears".

I have had several conversations with IR, about how we wish we could find a "bullish" person willing to have a reasonable and logical discussion. Most bulls tend to get frustrated, and end up hurling insults out of that frustration. We like to use facts and articles, or even academic studies. Whereas most of the bulls just use their opinion. As a fair warning, make sure you come with proof of your findings.

I think you will find us more open minded than people make us out to be. A little thick skin might help, but if you are willing to post what you did, then we know you already have thick skin. As long as you keep an open mind about our opinions, we will keep an open mind about yours.

Oh yeah, I am one of the more sarcastic ones here. So, don’t take me too seriously all the time.

BTW, why isn’t NIR posting more? I know I saw a post the other day, but it would be good to hear from her more often. I disagreed with her on many occasion, but because she has thick skin, I respect her.

BTW, why isn’t NIR posting more? I know I saw a post the other day, but it would be good to hear from her more often. I disagreed with her on many occasion, but because she has thick skin, I respect her.
Thick skin? Too much porn for you, graphrix. Maybe too many jpgs in chat.

BTW, why isn’t NIR posting more? I know I saw a post the other day, but it would be good to hear from her more often. I disagreed with her on many occasion, but because she has thick skin, I respect her
graphrix,
Thick skin? I am all bruised
I sure would look like a 3-headed person if I say anything that is permabully on this forum.    So why would I?
Since you have been around, you know things are not black and white.  I know you know.  Too much manipulations going on from the ABOVE (I am not talking about the press at all here).
I think we should talk turkey.  Then I will post more.
Sincerely,
NIR

Another bullish link
Home Price Data Shows Housing Solid Long-Term Investment
http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?sectionID=148&newsID=5639

i would love to see some bulls who aren’t tied into the realty or homebuilding trade though…

Good morning.
Thanks for the welcome. It is much warmer than I expected.
Graphrix -  I have been following the discoures here for a while and I do appreciate sarcasm. I have even been accused, wrongly of course, of using it a bit. I like the idea of a compare and contrast of the earlier events to the current event.
I will organize my thoughts, so as not to provide too easy of a target, and do a new post beggining in the 1980’s cycle with interest rates in the 17-18% range and extreamly tight financing enviornment.
Would you believe that people did buy homes, if they could get financing, at those rates? They did and the builders came up with the ever popular 3,2,1, buydowns to ease the pain. The demand was there and a way was found to meet it.
I do not hurl insults but like to be rational as long as treated with respect. I believe in discussion and communication with all sides being heard. I am not here to change any minds as I believe the following:  There are no mistakes. People either choose to do or not do do certain things and then deal with the results.
If that sounds a bit on the Liberterian side then it is probably true.
 
ACPME- Why is that?
 
Enjoy!!
 
 
 

xlm, I am very excited that you joined this board.  Welcome and I am looking forward to reading your analysis!