Irvine Housing Forums

Harvard Poker Pro Says Texas Hold ‘Em Can Teach Traders to Fold

2009-11-21T01:48:03-08:00

“Someone who has made a successful living as a poker player for a few years would more likely be a good trader than someone who hasn’t,” said Aaron Brown, a 53-year-old former poker pro who is now a risk manager at AQR Capital Management LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut, which oversees $23 billion. “They know to push when they have the edge and they know how not to bust, and that’s a tough combination to find.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=alximP6.Eta8&pos=10

Gold

2008-05-20T12:09:06-08:00

For all of you gold experts out there, I purchased some shares of a gold mutual fund in my IRA account and it has increased 40% in less than a year. Is now a good time to sell or is gold going to continue to rise?

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

2008-08-07T10:47:24-08:00

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Aug. 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 455,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 448,000. The 4-week moving average was 419,500, an increase of 26,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 392,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending July 26, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 2.5 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 26 was 3,311,000, an increase of 31,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,280,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,201,000, an increase of 27,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,174,000.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 2.975 million.

Natural Gas ETF

2009-08-26T18:32:56-08:00

What do you guys think of UNG (Natural Gas ETF)?

Looks like it might have hit a bottom, thinking about investing some serious $$$ into it.

I can’t see it getting much lower then it is right now. Opinions are appreciated.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UNG#chart2:symbol=ung;range=5y;indicator=sma(50,100,200)+split+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Thanks

Economic Commentary

2009-02-06T11:26:55-08:00

As a bond trader for a major insurance company, I receive tons of economic commentaries from banks on the street on daily basis. I’d like to share some informative stuff you guys might find interesting going forward.

David Rosenberg
Merrill Lynch Chief North American Economist

In need of a new bank - a jobs bank

“Internals of the report were as weak as the headline
The internals of the report, like its recent predecessors, were at least at weak as
the headline. The benchmark revisions were mixed but December was taken
down to -577,000 from -524,000 respectively. With all the revisions and the
current estimate for January, the economy has now shed 2.5 million jobs in just
the past four months. Compare that to the 1.8 million average decline we
typically see through the entire 10-month recessions of the past. We exceeded
that in just the past four months alone!
Job losses very broad based
The diffusion index is down to an all-time low of 25.3%, which means that for
every company adding to their payrolls, three are in cutback mode. The
comparable figure for manufacturing, by the way, is down to an all-time low of
7%, which means that businesses in the sector that are cutting jobs are
outnumbering the ones adding to payrolls by a 14-to-1 ratio. In the last recession,
the low in this factory diffusion index was 10 and in the early 1990s the trough
was 17 – just to put the current 7 figure into perspective.
Household survey showed a record 1.24 million job plunge
The companion Household survey was even worse than the payroll report, if that
is possible – showing a record 1.24 million job plunge. The data go back to 1950,
and we have never seen something like that before; even in per cent terms
(-0.9%), there has not been a decline of this magnitude in over 40 years. And
almost all of the January plunge was in full-time employment – down an eyepopping
1.1 million, taking the cumulative loss since the recession began in late
2007 to 6.1 million, which is unprecedented. In a “normal” recession, we lose a
little more than 2-1/2 million full-time positions. We have already lost nearly three
times that amount and counting.
Unemployment rate for full-time workers spiked to 8%
And, it is full-time employment that ultimately drives income, confidence and
spending. While the unemployment rate jumped 0.4 percentage points for the
second month in a row to 7.6%, the highest since September 1992, the rate for
full-time workers spiked from 7.5% to 8%, which was the highest since January
1984.”

My Trading Blog

2009-11-12T08:26:36-08:00

Since now I have a lot extra time focusing on my own investment, I decide to make this blog for whoever interested in knowing exactly what I’m doing. I try to keep it as simple and straighforward as possible. Comments and suggestions are welcome.

http://icemanxtrendtrading.blogspot.com/

How much “car” would you buy?

2009-11-17T10:34:19-08:00

If you have: 1) no debt, other than a mortgage (PITI) that’s less than 25% of your gross; 2) emergency savings of six months’ expenses; 3) and you’re saving at least 10%-20% of your gross easily - How much would/should you spend on a car?

i.e. If you’re on the right track financially, what’s the most you should spend on a car? I’d prefer to accumulate a lot of capital relative to our income ASAP, but I know we need to find balance in our lives. My wife would like to buy a luxury car that costs the equivalent of 20% of our household income. Is 20% too much? Are there too many factors to create “rules of thumb” for car purchases?

I’ve shown her the numbers illustrating the cost to our net worth 30 years from now considering the different spending scenarios. She wants to enjoy some of the fruit of our labor today, rather than waiting 30 years.

Where do stash cash these days?

2009-09-21T16:40:56-08:00

I am looking for a place to stash some cash. I want something that is pretty liquid, but would consider a 6 month or 1 year CD if the rate was right.

What looks good these days?

I read a few prior threads after doing a search, but the most I got out of it was that IPO is the go-to guy for this. So, what do you say?

What Would You Do With $100,000?

2009-11-15T20:48:21-08:00

Hypothetically, if you had 100 large sitting around and you:

- have no interest in sinking the cash in CA real estate,
- no interest in an expensive car (because you’ve already owned several and its out of your system),
- have several hundred already in the stock market,
- currently do not own a home but have the additional reserves to buy one whenever,
- have zero debt,
- have already made significant contributions to charities

Some ideas:
- use the cash to buy/finance a couple of rentals outside CA,
- start your own business,
- day trade for living,
- invest in someone else’s business,
- ??

What would you do with the $100k?

I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE TOPPED

2009-10-14T15:31:54-08:00

It’s about time to start this topic,

Currently

S&P - 1092
Dollar Index - 76
Gold - $1060/ounce

My projection for the next 12 months, mainly based on technical indicators,

S&P - 700 or lower
Dollar Index - 85 or higher
Gold - $750/ounce

I’m in the deflation camp for at least the next 2 years.

Let the discussion begin….